pes queria 2
DESCRIPTION
Pes Queria 2TRANSCRIPT
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UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL CALLAOFACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICASESCUELA PROFESIONAL DE ECONOMIA Y PLANIFICACION*Carlos Ivn Palomares PalomaresSemestre: 2013-IEvaluacin Econmica del Impacto AmbientalSemana 11 : Optimizacin Dinmica
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Bjorndal y Conrad (1987), modelaron dinmicamente la pesquera de arenque en Noruega bajo libre acceso, utilizando la optimizacin dinmica en tiempo discreto con el fin de hallar los ptimos de embarcaciones y biomasa, para que la pesquera sea sostenible intertemporalmente.
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Groenbaek (2004), realiza un estudio para los pases blticos sobre la extraccin de bacalao, y desarrolla una metodologa de optimizacin dinmica, que halla los ptimos del libre acceso basado en la teora de Smith (1968).
Hardin (1968), realiz un estudio sobre la tragedia de los comunes; demostrando que esta ocurre cuando la estrategia dominante de cada pescador busca maximizar sus beneficios sin tener en cuenta el impacto de la misma sobre el stock del recurso, lo cual indica que si cada pescador razona del mismo modo el recurso pesquero se sobreexplotara.
*
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El presente estudio desarroll el modelo bioeconmico dinmico discreto de Smith (1968).
Supuestos del Modelo:El rgimen de captura es de libre acceso, donde los =0.El precio considerado es constante.Los costos por embarcacin son constantes.
Herramientas funcionales de la metodologa de Smith:Funcin logstica o funcin de crecimiento neto del recurso.Funcin de produccin Cobb Douglas.Funcin de beneficios.Funcin de dinmica de flota.Sistema de ecuaciones en diferencias.Simulacin del modelo de Smith.
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Donde:X: Biomasa del recurso.r: tasa de crecimiento intrnseco.k: capacidad de carga.
Funcin de Produccin Cobb Douglas (2)Donde:Yt: Captura de anchoveta en toneladas en el ao tEt: Esfuerzo estandarizado de anchoveta en el ao t.Xt: Biomasa de anchoveta en toneladas en el ao t.
Los parmetros que se calcularn de la funcin son:q: tasa de capturabilidad (q=eA): elasticidad esfuerzo captura.: elasticidad biomasa captura.
*(1)
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Donde:p: precio constante de la anchoveta /c: costo por embarcacin ao constante.
Funcin de dinmica de Flota:El coeficiente de dinmica de flota , se determina de:(4)
*(3)
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Luego de modelar las 4 funciones anteriores se obtendrn: q, , , r, k y ; parmetros que permitirn simular la dinmica de la pesquera.
Luego el estado estacionario del modelo se hallar por el siguiente sistema de ecuaciones:
(5)
(6)*
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(6)
(7)
Dinmica de Biomasa y Captura*
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Donde:Yt: Captura de ArenqueSt: BiomasaKt: Esfuerzo o Embarcaciones
AosYtStKt1963345423250008196414793325290001211965586318234800020919664485111871000298196733444914340003191968286198105600035219691348866960002531970220854717000201197121073350100023019721369695090002031973135338521000153197466236345000165197534221259000102197633057276000921977391116600024
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*Calcular los betas por Excel o Cualquier Software economtrico (Eview 5.0, NLogit3.0 o Limdep 7.0)
BETAS=(X'X)-1X'Y-2.787629930.562071041.35556271
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*
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a=q=e-2.7876=0.06157b=1.356g=0.562Nenta==0.1c=556580 (Costo por embarcacin de ao representativo).p=735 (precio representativo).*
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See=[c/(paKee(b-1)]1/gKee=[rSee(1-See/L)/(aSeeg)]1/b
S=(556580/(735*0.06157*(A2)^0.356))^(1/0.562)K==(0.8*B2*(1-(B2/3200000))/(0.06157*(B2^0.562)))^(1/1.356)Z-K==ABS(A2-C2)Z1 inicial=K PromedioZ2=(A2+C2)/2*
K81212092983193522532012302031531651029224182
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ZSKl Z - K l182700977.4934426.9269247244.9269247304.4635505999.9763406.1551942101.6917318355.3093458842.8508398.589872243.28054392376.9496441976.3467395.582599218.632999386.2661435193.4417394.32501668.058916886390.2956432341.9379393.78783573.492277502392.0417431121.1432393.55629931.514602429392.7990430594.4414393.45611520.657117049393.1276430366.445393.41269360.285136966393.2701430267.6094393.39386030.123735188393.3320430224.7379393.38568920.053696436393.3588430206.1367393.38214350.023302533393.3705430198.065393.38060480.010112608393.3755430194.5623393.37993710.004388582393.3777430193.0422393.37964730.001904521393.3787430192.3825393.37952160.000826509393.3791430192.0963393.3794670.000358682393.3793430191.972393.37944330.000155658393.3794430191.9181393.3794336.75512E-05393.3794430191.8947393.37942862.93153E-05393.3794430191.8846393.37942661.2722E-05393.3794430191.8802393.37942585.52101E-06393.3794430191.8782393.37942542.39596E-06
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*XA1=2325000 EEA=120YA=0.06157*I2^1.356*H2^0.562XA1=H2+0.8*H2*(1-H2/3200000)-0.06157*I2^1.356*H2^0.562EEA=I2+0.1*(0.06157*I2^(1.356-1)*H2^0.562-K2/L2)
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*
XA1EEAYAcp1963232500012015369819038023219642679896166258532195840203196527698202253983771987602051966266932430558887420106021419672434586404818565204880141196820818884618970782068001281969176675649489802521520018519701501779560970003277820262197111693646279830523828802441972779950627782754455340214197346907653947923256578038419743100964803250626862404981975209072410210288556580735197615511438616358072164085319771096093441150178570001415
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*
Grfico1
153698.144720441
258531.837001942
398376.74189969
588874.107294314
818564.780796771
897077.794157284
898025.189644196
970003.333426507
983051.515212387
782754.448661648
479232.125898604
325061.517834664
210287.669715456
163580.246868402
115016.627872277
ESFUERZO
CAPTURA
DINAMICA CAPTURA ESFUERZO
Modelo Smith no ENSO
ZSKl Z - K l8EEAXA1YAcostosprecioXA1EEAYAcp
9007702717.38031965388.2243614697511.7756385303121196010.00000020000000525352415.45415453.7052.0019632325000120153698190380232
644.11218073496937221.67281919402.5639430972241.54823763762091961268.632080231213586045557414.21414208.2751.0019642679896166258532195840203
523.3380619166500825.72987138410.6169976802112.72106423582981962352.141175202827136445130411.22411219.2355.0019652769820225398377198760205
466.97752979816273129.5982351414.775280564652.20224923353191963414.996783174556786261848409.23409226.5460.0019662669324305588874201060214
440.87640518146161242.41831725416.806339155524.07006602593521964463.003484149975075845475405.99405988.4155.0019672434586404818565204880141
428.84137216846108114.71950736417.767750436511.07362173192531965493.447329129354515304276401.38401380.3159.0019682081888461897078206800128
423.30456130256083328.42568346418.21560879355.0889525092011966516.359952112672954796969397.64397644.0158.0019691766756494898025215200185
420.7600850486071862.98027553418.42262716292.33745788512301967530.49199299002914318659395.40395402.2453.0019701501779560970003277820262
419.59135610546066580.70098339418.5179714341.07338467142031968534.44260487846593871222389.92389922.3350.0019711169364627983052382880244
419.05466376976064151.63659641418.56180889910.49285487071531969531.22043878925343478893389.92389922.3349.001972779950627782754455340214
418.80823633446063035.5922793418.58194878820.22628754621651970523.04135171886303146626361.15361152.8445.001973469076539479232565780384
418.69509256136062523.0247114418.5911981680.10389439331021971511.37360866402432870521363.64363643.7049.001974310096480325062686240498
418.64314536466062287.65996784418.59544530630.0477000584921972500.87667462206602657598359.28359284.6950.001975209072410210288556580735
418.61929533546062179.59243902418.59739536290.0218999725241973489.96254658956192485739387.31387306.9255.001976155114386163580721640853
418.60834534926062129.97523549418.59829069250.01005465671821974478.53274056473472346241703.65703646.8360.0019771096093441150178570001415
418.60331802086062107.19481924418.59870175860.00461626231975438.90994054639512139695712.61712613.9470.00
418.60100988976062096.73588345418.59889048690.00211940271976408.10807854308712021621669.40669397.4350.00
418.59995018836062091.93399889418.59897713550.00097305281977359.13848655056241872929673.26673258.2780.00
418.59946366196062089.72937154418.59901691730.00044674461978340.55540557521711881903640.75640752.4843.00
418.59924028966062088.7171902418.59903518180.00020510781979286.12277460648301752543799.17799171.5151.00
418.59913773576062088.25248097418.59904356730.00009416841980230.705167659962416344711050.131050126.2082.00
418.59909065156062088.03912529418.59904741730.00004323421981197.48473174048461636859717.60717595.6755.00
418.59906903446062087.94117019418.59904918490.00001984961982169.85594884219921666291678.99678987.2664.00
418.59905910966062087.89619738418.59904999640.00000911331983165.21609096545081862816604.26604261.3063.00
418.5990545536062087.87554963418.5990503690.0000041841984174.990950109483742187706589.32589316.1169.00
1985197.988568121423622633980599.28599279.5770.00
Yoptima2286537.010240741986225.523877130561923093190409.97409973.8067.00
1987269.629522136110243647885471.00471000.0066.00
1988306.746619136606114006562413.71413710.1065.00
1989345.627658133555224262456463.53463527.4065.00
1990375.826508127688354329473456.05456054.8167.00
1991403.190676120583884305079388.80388801.4464.00
1992429.912810112907394227847411.22411219.2378.00
1993456.400679104962954110881383.82383819.7171.00
1994477.30962096938083930566397.52397519.4753.00
1995481.57393889274473654977413.71413710.1048.00
1996475.59775782821693371815451.07451073.0839.00
1997449.60812577772243052083422.43422428.1360.00
1998448.14413574721252930550365.14365138.2255.00
1999447.56601172126662830405403.75403746.6360.00
2000445.21391269867632735289523.31523308.1755.00
2001425.64228667964682581315471.00471000.0050.00
2002471.00471000.0055.00
2003528.30528301.8660.00
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