entreculturas diciembre 2010

Juan Manuel Moreno Banco Mundial

Entreculturas, 22 Diciembre 2010

Tres de cada 10 alumnos de secundaria obligatoria no concluyen los estudios

44 por ciento de la minoría étnica A y 48 por ciento de la B dejan la escuela sin ningún tipo de diploma

Sólo tres de cada cinco entrantes a la educación superior se licenciarán en un plazo de 6 años (la mitad si pertenecen a minorías).

World Bank (Human Development Network - Education)

World GDP/capita and Population

A Two Millennium Perspective

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

12

0

20

0

28

0

36

0

44

0

52

0

60

0

68

0

76

0

84

0

92

0

10

00

10

80

11

60

12

40

13

20

14

00

14

80

15

60

16

40

17

20

18

00

18

70

19

50

19

98

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

World GDP per capita (1990 international $) World Population (Million)

Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy : A Millennial Perspective, OECD: Paris, 2001

GDP per

capita World

Population (mill)

World GDP/Capita and Population


Per Capita GDP for Selected Regions or Countries

(1990 international $, 1480-1998)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1480 1560 1640 1720 1800 1870 1950 1998

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

United States

Latin America

Japan

China

India

Other Asia

Africa

Source: Angus M addison, The World Economy : A M illennial Perspect ive, OECD: Paris, 2001


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Knowledge makes the Difference Knowledge makes the Difference

between Poverty and Wealth...between Poverty and Wealth...

Rep. of Korea

Ghana

Thousands of constant 1995 US dollars

Difference

attributed to

knowledge

Difference

due to

physical

and human

capital

Poverty alleviation:

Education broadens ―agency‖ capabilities. (AmartyaSen)

2 years of schooling for the mother reduces child mortality by about 15%

better health raises workers’ productivity, releases resources for other investments

A Catalyst for development: Knowledge societies --an educated and skilled

population is one of the four pre-conditions for knowledge becoming an effective engine of growth. (Chen and Dahlman 2004). Enables societies to absorb knowledge/adapt to technological change

Essential for creating democratic societies and for increasing equity

A powerful ―vaccine‖ against HIV/AIDs

Every child has a right to an education.

And education yields huge benefits for individuals, families, communities, and society.

7

A country’s wealth and its prospects for development depends on the quality of its people—

the skills and creativity of its workers,

the capability of its leaders to govern well and to manage its resources, and

the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy, educated and happy children –the next generation.

One additional year of schooling

increases an individual’s wage

by 5-10%.

―Half the reduction in child mortality over the past 40 years can be attributed to the better education of women.‖ (Lancet

9/2010) One additional year in average education of women reduces child deaths by 9.5%.

Countries with high female education coped with extreme weather

events better than countries with same income and weather

conditions (Blankespoor, Dasgupta, Wheeler

2010)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15%

% grwth govt health spending

% r

eduction U

5M

R 1

990-2

015

5% ec grwth

& 2.5% female educ grwth

& 2.5% roads grwth

& 2.5% wat & san grwth

& 2.5% grwth in all

Aumento de la tasabruta de matrícula en educación primaria

… y de las tasas de graduación en primariade los másdesfavorecidos

Aumento de la demandade secundaria y superior

9

50

60

70

80

90

10

0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year

Low income Lower middle income

Upper middle income High income

World

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010

Primary net enrollment rates by income group

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year

Low income Lower middle income

Upper middle income High income

World

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010

Primary completion rates by income group

La Brecha en Tasas de Graduación Crece

Porcentaje de Población

Con Algún Grado de Educación Secundaria

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Po

rce

nta

je

MO & Af N

Sub-Sah Af

Am Lat y Car

Asia E & Pac

Sud Asia

Desarrollado

Europa del

Este

12/22/2010 11

Attainment: Years of Education and Economic Growth

Total Hombres Mujeres

Mundo 10.3 10.7 9.8

Países en transición 12.5 12.2 12.6

Desarrollados 15.9 15.2 16.4

En desarrollo 9.5 10.1 8.9

Países árabes 10.0 10.6 9.4

Europa Central y del Este 12.7 12.7 12.7

Asia Central 11.4 11.5 11.3

Asia Este y Pacífico 10.9 11.3 10.5

América Latina y Caribe 13.0 12.7 13.2

América Norte y Europa Occidental 16.3 15.4 16.8

Asia Sur y Oeste 8.6 9.5 7.6

Africa Sub-sahariana 7.1 7.6 6.4

Gasto en educación y esperanza de vida escolar

Sch

oo

l li

fe e

xp

ecta

ncy

, yea

rs

Public spending on education as % of GDP

0 2 4 6 8 10

0

5

10

15

Burundi

BurkinaFaso

BangladeshC.A.R.

China

Coted'Ivoire

Cameroon

Colombia Algeria

Ecuador

Egypt

Ethiopia

Ghana

Guinea

Guatemala

Honduras

Indonesia

India

JamaicaJordan

Kenya

Laos

Sri Lanka

Morocco

Madagascar

Mali

Mozambique

Malawi

Niger

Nicaragua

Nepal

Pakistan

Philippines

Paraguay

Rwanda

SenegalSierraLeone

Syria

Chad

Togo

Tunisia

TanzaniaUganda

SouthAfrica

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Poor correlation between education spending and outcomes

12/22/2010 14

Learning: Standardized Test Score & Economic Growth

Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados

Baja calidad en todo el sistema Rigidez estructural Corrupción rampante Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Poorest quintile Quintile 2

Quintile 3 Quintile 4

Richest quintile

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



Richest quintile

16

% of youth ages 15-19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data

Indonesia 2007Egypt 2008Nigeria 2008

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



Richest quintile

Within-country inequalities are as big as —if not bigger — than between-country

inequalities

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Bu

run

di

Rw

an

da

Nig

er

Bu

rkin

a F

as

o

Gu

inea

-Bis

sa

u

Ch

ad

An

go

la

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Bu

rkin

a F

as

o

Se

neg

al

Eth

iop

ia

Ma

li

Gu

ine

a

Co

mo

ros

C.A

.R.

Lib

eri

a

Ma

da

ga

sc

ar

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Ma

uri

tan

ia

To

go

Be

nin

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

DR

Co

ng

o

Ug

an

da

Ga

mb

ia

Ma

law

i

Ca

me

roo

n

Les

oth

o

Ta

nza

nia

Co

ng

o R

ep

.

Ga

bo

n

Nig

eri

a

Zam

bia

Gh

an

a

Sw

azil

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d

Ke

nya

Nam

ibia

So

uth

Afr

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bw

e

Pro

po

rtio

n

Richest quintile Poorest quintile Average grade 6 completion

Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. ―Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.‖ http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain

Grade 6 completion of 15-19 year olds in the richest and poorest quintiles.

http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain

Years of education completed by ethnicity (20-28

yr olds)

Bulgarian

Turkish

Roma

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Years of completed schooling

(%)


Baja calidad en todo el sistema

Rigidez estructural

Corrupción rampante

Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas

Proportion

of 15-19

year olds

who can

read a

simple

sentence,

by highest

grade

completed

20

0.2

.4.6

.81

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Grade

Dominican Rep. 2007 Kenya 2008-09

Mali 2006 Nepal 2006

About 50% of Kenyan youth

who completed grade 6 cannot read a simple

sentence

90% of Malian youth who completed

grade 4 cannot read a simple

sentence

Fuente: PISA 2000 y 2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 2 3 4

Economic quartile

Ave

rag

e P

ISA

Sc

ore

in

Math

em

ati

cs

20

03

Mexico

Brazil

Uruguay

OECD

Morroco

never enroll dropout gr 1-5

dropout gr 5-9 finish gr 9 w/o basic skill

finish gr 9 w/ basic skill

Grade 928%

Fully literate13%

Brazil




Fully literate8%

Grade 922%

Ghana




Fully literate5 %

Grade 937 %

La ineficiencia resulta en casi igual de inequidad que la inequidad

misma

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

600 650 700 750 800 850

Estatus socioeconomico

No

tas

es

co

lare

s s

ec

un

da

ria

Promedio

ricos

Promedio pobres

Diferencia

entre ricos

y pobres

Diferencia

interna

entre

los pobres

Colegios igualmente pobres◦ Pero uno bien manejado, el otro no

◦ Clase obrera, pequeños comerciantes

◦ Ambos mas o menos iguales en recursos (mismo tipo de maestro, misma ratio P/A

Alumnos de 1er grado◦ Habían hecho al menos un año de preescolar

5 palabras en

60 segundos.

Estandar = 30?

35 palabras en 60 segundos



Rigidez estructural



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Tota

l hora

s d

e e

nseñanza p

or

año (2

00

0)

Total para edades 9-11 Total para edades 12-14



Rigidez estructural



Expansión de oportunidades ha conducido a mayor desigualdad de resultados en muchos países

La ineficiencia en educación perjudica a los pobres

Lectura, lectura y lectura. Profesorado y uso de tiempo en el aula marcan la diferencia

Definiciones de Calidad

Expansion and Consensus-Strength of political commitment to expanding access-Elite consensus around the priority of the education agenda is critical. -Large-scale reform and big-bang approaches can work

Expansion and Control- Centralized policy making and a wide plurality in provision and institutionalization- Structural reforms cannot be sustained unless they are combined with reforms in governance- Mobilization of local communities is a central element of ownership and therefore of success

Expansion and Quality

- Education quality appears to be the pending issue in every success story of education expansion. But that is just in the short term.

- It is the teachers, stupid!!

A set of identified, verified factors:◦ Education system factors School readiness / Early childhood development

Non-early school differentiation

School autonomy

◦ School and classroom factors Structured learning

Time on task

Opportunity to learn

Focus on outcomes

High expectations

Family involvement

Expansion and Finance

- Yes, more money is needed and yes, it makes a difference.

- Not only there is no trade-off between efficiency and equity; they actually go hand in hand.

Por supuesto …

Estados Unidos

ALUMNOS Aumentar la cobertura y

asegurar la calidad de la educación pre-escolar

Compensar niveles socioeconómicos bajos con CCTs

ESCUELAS Asegurar equipamiento

adecuado Garantizar tiempo adecuado

para el aprendizaje Asignar buenos docentes a las

que más los necesitan Asegurar la calidad de

programas de capacitación de docentes

Diseñar incentivos eficaces para docentes

Proveer recursos adicionales a escuelas que atienden alumnos de contextos vulnerables

INSTITUCIONES Descentralizar el poder y

toma de decisiones a varios niveles

Apoyar a escuelas descentralizadas con poca capacidad institucional

Incluir a padres y comunidades en la gestión de las escuelas

Tomar en cuenta los riesgos de aumentar las desigualdades y diseñar políticas compensatorias

entreculturas diciembre 2010

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