abastecimientos(4)
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ABASTECIMIENTOTRANSCRIPT
MENUCALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURAMENUMETODO ARITMETICOMETODO DE INTERES SIMPLEMETODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOMETODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOMETODO DE LA PARABOLA O SEGUNDO GRADOMETODO GRAFICOINTEGRANTES:DELGADILLO GAMBOA MAGALY JANETHGONZALES PALOMINO HUMBERTOMENDIETA ILLESCAS JESUSENRIQUEZ FLORES CATICATEDRATICO :ING. MARCELINO RAMIREZ
1CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURADATOSAOSPOBLACIONn =319617217197210059198113492199317452METODO ARITMETICOAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosr = Pf - Pot19617217284211258.363619721005934339381.4444198113492396012330.0000199317452TOTAL969.8081Tp = r =969.8081=323.2694n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA199017452323.271221331.23199517452323.271722947.58200017452323.272224563.93200517452323.272726180.27201017452323.273227796.62201517452323.273729412.97202017452323.274231029.31202517452323.274732645.66203017452323.275234262.01203517452323.275735878.35204017452323.276237494.70204517452323.276739111.05205017452323.277240727.39METODO DE INTERES SIMPLEAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosPo * tr = Pf -PoPo * t1961721728421179387.00000.03581972100593433990531.00000.0379198113492396012161904.00000.0245199317452TOTAL0.0982Tp = r =0.0982=0.0327n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA1990174520.03271224305.681995174520.03271727161.382000174520.03272230017.072005174520.03272732872.772010174520.03273235728.472015174520.03273738584.172020174520.03274241439.872025174520.03274744295.572030174520.03275247151.272035174520.03275750006.972040174520.03276252862.662045174520.03276755718.362050174520.03277258574.06METODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOAOPOBLACIONt(Pf / Po)1/tr19617217111.03060.030619721005991.03320.0332198113492121.02170.0217199317452TOTAL0.0855Tp = r =0.0855=0.0285n31+r1.0285POBLACIONULTIMO(1 + rp)ttPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA199017,452.001.40101224,449.69199517,452.001.61231728,137.47200017,452.001.85552232,381.49200517,452.002.13532737,265.64201017,452.002.45743242,886.47201517,452.002.82803749,355.10202017,452.003.25464256,799.40202517,452.003.74554765,366.54203017,452.004.31045275,225.87203517,452.004.96065786,572.30204017,452.005.70886299,630.13204517,452.006.569967114,657.48205017,452.007.560872131,951.44METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOAOPOBLACIONPRIMER INCREMENTOSEGUNDO INCREMENTO1P2P1961721719721005928421981134923433591.00001993174523960527.0000TOTAL102351118.00001PROM=3411.672PROM=559.00POBLACIONULTIMOtPOBLACION FUTURAPOR AOCENSODECADAS199017,452.001.222,283.88199517,452.001.724,534.74200017,452.002.226,925.35200517,452.002.729,455.71201017,452.003.232,125.81201517,452.003.734,935.67202017,452.004.237,885.28202517,452.004.740,974.64203017,452.005.244,203.75203517,452.005.747,572.61204017,452.006.251,081.21204517,452.006.754,729.57205017,452.007.258,517.68METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE SEGUNDO GRADOAOPOBLACIONtt21961721700.0019721005911121.0019811349220400.00199317452321024.00TOTAL20A +400B=343332A +1024.00B=7393MULTIPLICADOR1.6-32A +-640B=-5492.832A +1024.00B=73930+384.00B=1900.2B=4.9484REEMPLAZANDO (B) EN ( 1)20A +1979=3433A=72.6813POBLACIONPOBLACIONtt2POBLACION FUTURAPOR AOINICIAL199017,452.001214419,036.75199517,452.001728920,117.68200017,452.002248421,446.03200517,452.002772923,021.80201017,452.0032102424,845.00201517,452.0037136926,915.62202017,452.0042176429,233.66202517,452.0047220931,799.12203017,452.0052270434,612.00203517,452.0057324937,672.30204017,452.0062384440,980.03204517,452.0067448944,535.18205017,452.0072518448,337.75
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2CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURADATOSAOSPOBLACIONn =319617217197210059198113492199317452METODO ARITMETICOAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosr = Pf - Pot19617217284211258.363619721005934339381.4444198113492396012330.0000199317452TOTAL969.8081Tp = r =969.8081=323.2694n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017452323.271221331.23199517452323.271722947.58200017452323.272224563.93200517452323.272726180.27201017452323.273227796.62201517452323.273729412.97202017452323.274231029.31202517452323.274732645.66203017452323.275234262.01203517452323.275735878.35204017452323.276237494.70204517452323.276739111.05205017452323.277240727.39METODO DE INTERES SIMPLEAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosPo * tr = Pf -PoPo * t1961721728421179387.00000.03581972100593433990531.00000.0379198113492396012161904.00000.0245199317452TOTAL0.0982Tp = r =0.0982=0.0327n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO1990174520.03271224305.681995174520.03271727161.382000174520.03272230017.072005174520.03272732872.772010174520.03273235728.472015174520.03273738584.172020174520.03274241439.872025174520.03274744295.572030174520.03275247151.272035174520.03275750006.972040174520.03276252862.662045174520.03276755718.362050174520.03277258574.06METODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOAOPOBLACIONt(Pf / Po)1/tr19617217111.03060.030619721005991.03320.0332198113492121.02170.0217199317452TOTAL0.0855Tp = r =0.0855=0.0285n31+r1.0285POBLACIONULTIMO(1 + rp)ttTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017,452.001.40101224,449.69199517,452.001.61231728,137.47200017,452.001.85552232,381.49200517,452.002.13532737,265.64201017,452.002.45743242,886.47201517,452.002.82803749,355.10202017,452.003.25464256,799.40202517,452.003.74554765,366.54203017,452.004.31045275,225.87203517,452.004.96065786,572.30204017,452.005.70886299,630.13204517,452.006.569967114,657.48205017,452.007.560872131,951.44METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOAOPOBLACIONPRIMER INCREMENTOSEGUNDO INCREMENTO1P2P1961721719721005928421981134923433591.00001993174523960527.0000TOTAL102351118.00001PROM=3411.672PROM=559.00POBLACIONULTIMOtPOBLACION FUTURAPOR AOCENSODECADAS199017,452.001.222,283.88199517,452.001.724,534.74200017,452.002.226,925.35200517,452.002.729,455.71201017,452.003.232,125.81201517,452.003.734,935.67202017,452.004.237,885.28202517,452.004.740,974.64203017,452.005.244,203.75203517,452.005.747,572.61204017,452.006.251,081.21204517,452.006.754,729.57205017,452.007.258,517.68METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE SEGUNDO GRADOAOPOBLACIONtt21961721711121.00197210059981.0019811349212144.00199317452TOTAL
3CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURADATOSAOSPOBLACIONn =319617217197210059198113492199317452METODO ARITMETICOAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosr = Pf - Pot19617217284211258.363619721005934339381.4444198113492396012330.0000199317452TOTAL969.8081Tp = r =969.8081=323.2694n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017452323.271221331.23199517452323.271722947.58200017452323.272224563.93200517452323.272726180.27201017452323.273227796.62201517452323.273729412.97202017452323.274231029.31202517452323.274732645.66203017452323.275234262.01203517452323.275735878.35204017452323.276237494.70204517452323.276739111.05205017452323.277240727.39METODO DE INTERES SIMPLEAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosPo * tr = Pf -PoPo * t1961721728421179387.00000.03581972100593433990531.00000.0379198113492396012161904.00000.0245199317452TOTAL0.0982Tp = r =0.0982=0.0327n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO1990174520.03271224305.681995174520.03271727161.382000174520.03272230017.072005174520.03272732872.772010174520.03273235728.472015174520.03273738584.172020174520.03274241439.872025174520.03274744295.572030174520.03275247151.272035174520.03275750006.972040174520.03276252862.662045174520.03276755718.362050174520.03277258574.06METODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOAOPOBLACIONt(Pf / Po)1/tr19617217111.03060.030619721005991.03320.0332198113492121.02170.0217199317452TOTAL0.0855Tp = r =0.0855=0.0285n31+r1.0285POBLACIONULTIMO(1 + rp)ttTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017,452.001.40101224,449.69199517,452.001.61231728,137.47200017,452.001.85552232,381.49200517,452.002.13532737,265.64201017,452.002.45743242,886.47201517,452.002.82803749,355.10202017,452.003.25464256,799.40202517,452.003.74554765,366.54203017,452.004.31045275,225.87203517,452.004.96065786,572.30204017,452.005.70886299,630.13204517,452.006.569967114,657.48205017,452.007.560872131,951.44METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOAOPOBLACIONPRIMER INCREMENTOSEGUNDO INCREMENTO1P2P1961721719721005928421981134923433591.00001993174523960527.0000TOTAL102351118.00001PROM=3411.672PROM=559.00POBLACIONULTIMOtPOBLACION FUTURAPOR AOCENSODECADAS199017,452.001.222,283.88199517,452.001.724,534.74200017,452.002.226,925.35200517,452.002.729,455.71201017,452.003.232,125.81201517,452.003.734,935.67202017,452.004.237,885.28202517,452.004.740,974.64203017,452.005.244,203.75203517,452.005.747,572.61204017,452.006.251,081.21204517,452.006.754,729.57205017,452.007.258,517.68METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE SEGUNDO GRADOAOPOBLACIONtt21961721711121.00197210059981.0019811349212144.00199317452TOTAL
4CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURADATOSAOSPOBLACIONn =319617217197210059198113492199317452METODO ARITMETICOAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosr = Pf - Pot19617217284211258.363619721005934339381.4444198113492396012330.0000199317452TOTAL969.8081Tp = r =969.8081=323.2694n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017452323.271221331.23199517452323.271722947.58200017452323.272224563.93200517452323.272726180.27201017452323.273227796.62201517452323.273729412.97202017452323.274231029.31202517452323.274732645.66203017452323.275234262.01203517452323.275735878.35204017452323.276237494.70204517452323.276739111.05205017452323.277240727.39METODO DE INTERES SIMPLEAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosPo * tr = Pf -PoPo * t1961721728421179387.00000.03581972100593433990531.00000.0379198113492396012161904.00000.0245199317452TOTAL0.0982Tp = r =0.0982=0.0327n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptTOTALPOR AOCENSO1990174520.03271224305.681995174520.03271727161.382000174520.03272230017.072005174520.03272732872.772010174520.03273235728.472015174520.03273738584.172020174520.03274241439.872025174520.03274744295.572030174520.03275247151.272035174520.03275750006.972040174520.03276252862.662045174520.03276755718.362050174520.03277258574.06METODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOAOPOBLACIONt(Pf / Po)1/tr19617217111.03060.030619721005991.03320.0332198113492121.02170.0217199317452TOTAL0.0855Tp = r =0.0855=0.0285n31+r1.0285POBLACIONULTIMO(1 + rp)ttTOTALPOR AOCENSO199017,452.001.40101224,449.69199517,452.001.61231728,137.47200017,452.001.85552232,381.49200517,452.002.13532737,265.64201017,452.002.45743242,886.47201517,452.002.82803749,355.10202017,452.003.25464256,799.40202517,452.003.74554765,366.54203017,452.004.31045275,225.87203517,452.004.96065786,572.30204017,452.005.70886299,630.13204517,452.006.569967114,657.48205017,452.007.560872131,951.44METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOAOPOBLACIONPRIMER INCREMENTOSEGUNDO INCREMENTO1P2P1961721719721005928421981134923433591.00001993174523960527.0000TOTAL102351118.00001PROM=3411.672PROM=559.00POBLACIONULTIMOtPOBLACION FUTURAPOR AOCENSODECADAS199017,452.001.222,283.88199517,452.001.724,534.74200017,452.002.226,925.35200517,452.002.729,455.71201017,452.003.232,125.81201517,452.003.734,935.67202017,452.004.237,885.28202517,452.004.740,974.64203017,452.005.244,203.75203517,452.005.747,572.61204017,452.006.251,081.21204517,452.006.754,729.57205017,452.007.258,517.68METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE SEGUNDO GRADOAOPOBLACIONtt21961721711121.00197210059981.0019811349212144.00199317452TOTAL
5CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURADATOSAOSPOBLACIONn =319617217197210059198113492199317452METODO ARITMETICOAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosr = Pf - Pot19617217284211258.363619721005934339381.4444198113492396012330.0000199317452TOTAL969.8081Tp = r =969.8081=323.2694n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA199017452323.271221331.23199517452323.271722947.58200017452323.272224563.93200517452323.272726180.27201017452323.273227796.62201517452323.273729412.97202017452323.274231029.31202517452323.274732645.66203017452323.275234262.01203517452323.275735878.35204017452323.276237494.70204517452323.276739111.05205017452323.277240727.39METODO DE INTERES SIMPLEAOPOBLACIONPf - Pot aosPo * tr = Pf -PoPo * t1961721728421179387.00000.03581972100593433990531.00000.0379198113492396012161904.00000.0245199317452TOTAL0.0982Tp = r =0.0982=0.0327n3POBLACIONULTIMOrptPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA1990174520.03271224305.681995174520.03271727161.382000174520.03272230017.072005174520.03272732872.772010174520.03273235728.472015174520.03273738584.172020174520.03274241439.872025174520.03274744295.572030174520.03275247151.272035174520.03275750006.972040174520.03276252862.662045174520.03276755718.362050174520.03277258574.06METODO DE INTERES COMPUESTO O GEOMETRICOAOPOBLACIONt(Pf / Po)1/tr19617217111.03060.030619721005991.03320.0332198113492121.02170.0217199317452TOTAL0.0855Tp = r =0.0855=0.0285n31+r1.0285POBLACIONULTIMO(1 + rp)ttPOBLACIONPOR AOCENSOFUTURA199017,452.001.40101224,449.69199517,452.001.61231728,137.47200017,452.001.85552232,381.49200517,452.002.13532737,265.64201017,452.002.45743242,886.47201517,452.002.82803749,355.10202017,452.003.25464256,799.40202517,452.003.74554765,366.54203017,452.004.31045275,225.87203517,452.004.96065786,572.30204017,452.005.70886299,630.13204517,452.006.569967114,657.48205017,452.007.560872131,951.44METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES O INTERMEDIOAOPOBLACIONPRIMER INCREMENTOSEGUNDO INCREMENTO1P2P1961721719721005928421981134923433591.00001993174523960527.0000TOTAL102351118.00001PROM=3411.672PROM=559.00POBLACIONULTIMOtPOBLACION FUTURAPOR AOCENSODECADAS199017,452.001.222,283.88199517,452.001.724,534.74200017,452.002.226,925.35200517,452.002.729,455.71201017,452.003.232,125.81201517,452.003.734,935.67202017,452.004.237,885.28202517,452.004.740,974.64203017,452.005.244,203.75203517,452.005.747,572.61204017,452.006.251,081.21204517,452.006.754,729.57205017,452.007.258,517.68METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE SEGUNDO GRADOAOPOBLACIONtt21961721700.0019721005911121.0019811349220400.00199317452321024.00TOTAL20A +400B=343332A +1024.00B=7393MULTIPLICADOR1.6-32A +-640B=-5492.832A +1024.00B=73930+384.00B=1900.2B=4.9484REEMPLAZANDO (B) EN ( 1)20A +1979=3433A=72.6813POBLACIONPOBLACIONtt2POBLACION FUTURAPOR AOINICIAL199017,452.001214419,036.75199517,452.001728920,117.68200017,452.002248421,446.03200517,452.002772923,021.80201017,452.0032102424,845.00201517,452.0037136926,915.62202017,452.0042176429,233.66202517,452.0047220931,799.12203017,452.0052270434,612.00203517,452.0057324937,672.30204017,452.0062384440,980.03204517,452.0067448944,535.18205017,452.0072518448,337.75
12
MET. GRAFICO21331.232323232324305.677056257724449.69020232622283.8819036.7522947.579124579127161.375829698428137.473074637924534.738333333320117.679687524563.925925925930017.074603139132381.489682460326925.346666666721446.0312526180.272727272732872.773376579837265.637581379829455.70523021.804687527796.619528619535728.472150020542886.468719163332125.81333333332484529412.966329966338584.170923461349355.098116415234935.671666666726915.617187531029.313131313141439.86969690256799.400436355237885.2829233.6562532645.659932659944295.568470342765366.537866458340974.638333333331799.117187534262.006734006747151.267243783475225.869284216744203.74666666673461235878.353535353550006.966017224186572.298216666547572.60537672.304687537494.700336700352862.664790664899630.125777595151081.213333333340980.0312539111.047138047155718.3635641055114657.48474895554729.571666666744535.179687540727.393939393958574.0623375462131951.44246132458517.6848337.75
MET. ART.MET. INT. SIMPLEMET. INT. COMP.MET. INCR. VAR.MET. PARABOLAAOSPOBLACIONMETODO GRAFICO
ANEXO GRAF.POBLACIONM. ART.M.INT. SIMP.M INT. COMP.M INCR. VAR.M PARABOLAPOR AO123451990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050199021331.2324305.6824449.6922283.8819036.75MET. ART.21331.2322947.5824563.9326180.2727796.6229412.9731029.3132645.6634262.0135878.3537494.7039111.0540727.39199522947.5827161.3828137.4724534.7420117.68MET. INT. SIMPLE24305.6827161.3830017.0732872.7735728.4738584.1741439.8744295.5747151.2750006.9752862.6655718.3658574.06200024563.9330017.0732381.4926925.3521446.03MET. INT. COMP.24449.6928137.4732381.4937265.6442886.4749355.1056799.4065366.5475225.8786572.3099630.13114657.48131951.44200526180.2732872.7737265.6429455.7123021.80MET. INCR. VAR.22283.8824534.7426925.3529455.7132125.8134935.6737885.2840974.6444203.7547572.6151081.2154729.5758517.68201027796.6235728.4742886.4732125.8124845.00MET. PARABOLA19036.7520117.6821446.0323021.8024845.0026915.6229233.6631799.1234612.0037672.3040980.0344535.1848337.75201529412.9738584.1749355.1034935.6726915.62202031029.3141439.8756799.4037885.2829233.66202532645.6644295.5765366.5440974.6431799.12203034262.0147151.2775225.8744203.7534612.00203535878.3550006.9786572.3047572.6137672.30204037494.7052862.6699630.1351081.2140980.03204539111.0555718.36114657.4854729.5744535.18205040727.3958574.06131951.4458517.6848337.75