PROBLEMA 1IVAN YSEL GOMEZ VILLALBANo. Cta. 160024699

SOLUCION DEL PROBLEMA 1

PeriodoVenta RealPronostico Error (Ei)Error Abs |Ei|Error % (Ep)Error Cuad Med(Ei)MADEMCPEMAMES(i)(Xi)(Fi)(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|(|Xi - Fi|/Xi)*100(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|/n(Ei / n)(Ep / n)Enero119502600-65065033.33422500.00650.00422500.0033.33Febrero224303240-81081033.33656100.00730.00328050.0033.33Marzo330304040-1010101033.331020100.00823.33699566.6733.33Abril440005333-1333133333.331777777.78950.83969119.4433.33Mayo542325643-1411141133.331989980.441042.801173291.6433.33Junio640825443-1361136133.331851413.781095.781286312.0033.33Julio742935724-1431143133.332047761.001143.671395090.4333.33Agosto838905187-1297129733.331681344.441162.791430872.1833.33Septiembre936834911-1228122833.331507165.441170.001439349.2133.33Octubre1020932791-69869833.33486738.781122.771344088.1733.33Noviembre1115322043-51151133.33260780.441067.121245605.6533.33Diciembre1219312575-64464433.33414306.781031.831176330.7433.33

RESULTADOSMAD = 1031.83EMC = 1176330.74PEMA = 33.33La grafica nos muestra un patrn estacional en el pronostico,ya que se repite as mismo periodo tras periodo.

PARA MANTENER VENTAS 10% ARRIBA DEL ERROR ABSOLUTO

PeriodoVenta RealPronostico Error (Ei)Error Abs |Ei|Error % (Ep)Error Cuad Med(Ei)MADEMCPEMAMES(i)(Xi)(Fi)(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|(|Xi - Fi|/Xi)*100(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|/n(Ei / n)(Ep / n)Enero12889260028928910.0083521.00289.0083521.0010.00Febrero23600324036036010.00129600.00324.5064800.0010.00Marzo34490404045045010.02202500.00366.33138540.3310.01Abril4592553335925929.99350464.00422.75191521.2510.00Mayo56270564362762710.00393129.00463.60231842.8010.00Junio6604554436026029.96362404.00486.67253603.0010.00Julio76360572463663610.00404496.00508.00275159.1410.00Agosto85765518757857810.03334084.00516.75282524.7510.00Septiembre9545549115445449.97295936.00519.78284014.8910.00Octubre103102279131131110.0396721.00498.90265285.5010.00Noviembre112270204322722710.0051529.00474.18245853.0910.00Diciembre12286025752852859.9781225.00458.42232134.0810.00

PROBLEMA 2IVAN YSEL GOMEZ VILLALBANo. Cta. 160024699

SOLUCION DEL PROBLEMA 2

PeriodoVenta RealPronostico Error (Ei)Error Abs |Ei|Error % (Ep)Error Cuad Med(Ei)MADEMCPEMAMES(i)(Xi)(Fi)(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|(|Xi - Fi|/Xi)*100(Xi - Fi)|Xi - Fi|/n(Ei / n)(Ep / n)AO 12678AO 22731.56267854541.962868.6726.781434.340.98AO 32785.12273254541.922868.6735.711912.451.29AO 42892.2427851071073.7011474.6953.564303.011.90AO 53106.4828922142146.9045898.7885.7012622.162.90AO 63534.96310642842812.12183595.11142.8341117.654.43AO 74391.92353585785719.51734380.44244.85140155.206.59

RESULTADOSMAD = 244.85EMC = 140155.20PEMA = 6.59Esta grafica tiene un patron de tendenciaya que representa el crecimiento a largo plazo.