sumera khan presentation

8/10/2019 Sumera Khan Presentation

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The Hidden Trapsin Decision

Making

by John S. Hammond, Ralph L.

Keeney, and Howard Raiffa


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Group Members

Yawar Khilji

Talal Baluch

Ubaid Ullah Tanveer


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The way the human brain works can sabotage

the choices we make.

In making decisions, we may be at the mercy

of our minds strange workings.

Heres how to catch thinking traps before they

become judgement disasters.


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The 6 Psychological traps that are likely to affect

the way we make decisions

THE ANCHORING TRAP

THE STATUS QUO TRAP

THE SUNK COST TRAP

THE CONFIRMING-EVIDENCE TRAP

THE FRAMING TRAP

THE ESTIMATING AND FORECASTING

TRAPS


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1. Anchoring TrapLeads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we

receive

How would you answer these two questions. Is the population of Turkey greater than

35 million? Whats your best estimate of Turkeys population?. If you are like most

people, the figure of 35 million cited in the first question influenced your answer to

the second question. This phenomenon is known as anchoring.

Anchoring takes many guises. Such as, a colleagues opinion, statistics in the morning

paper, or popular stereotype perceptions. In business one of the common types ofanchors is a past event or trend. A marketers attempt at projecting the sales for the

coming year often begins by looking at the sales of past years. The old numbers

become the anchors which the forecaster then adjusts based on other factors.

In situations characterized by rapid changes, historical anchors can lead to poor

forecasts and in turn misguided choices.


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What can you do about it?

Always view a problem from differentperspectives. Try using alternative starting points.

Think about the problem on your own before

consulting others to avoid being anchored bytheir ideas.

Seek information from a wide variety of sourcesand push your mind in fresh directions.

Do not anchor your advisors / consultants withyour own opinion or perception before seekingtheirs


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Talal Baluch


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Status-Quo Trap

Staying automatically with something familiar

rather then choosing appropriate or suitable

decision that involves change.

Examples:

In one, a group of people were randomly given one

of two gifts of approximately the same value


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The Sunk-Cost Trap

Whenever you invest time, money, or other

resources, or whenever your personal reputation is

at stake, you will find it more difficult to change your

decision or course of action. Past experiences influencing the decision making

ability

Example:

Hiring wrong employee for the job and not firing

back because of feeling physiological safer.


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Seek out and listen carefully to the views of people

who were uninvolved with the earlier decisions and

who are hence unlikely to be committed to them.

Examine why admitting to an earlier mistakes. Remember the wise words of Warren Buffet: When

you find yourself in a hole, the best thing you can do

is stop digging.

Be on the lookout for the influence of sunk-cost

biases in the decisions and recommendations made

by your subordinates. Reassign responsibilities when

necessary.


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Ubaid Ullah Khan


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The Confirming Evidence Trap

There are two fundamental psychological forces at work here. The first isour tendency to subconsciously decide what we want to do before wefigure out why we want to do it. The second is our inclination to be moreengaged by things we like than by things we dislike.Naturally then, we aredrawn to information that supports our subconscious learnings.

This bias leads us to seek out information that supports our existing instinct

or point of view while avoiding information that contradicts it. The confirming evidence bias not only affects where we go to collect

evidence but also on how we interpret the evidence we do receive, leadingus to give too much weight to supporting information and too little toconflicting information.

Its not that you shouldn't make the choice youre subconsciously drawn to.

Its just that youwant to be sure its the smart choice. You need to put it tothe test.


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Check to see whether you are examining all evidence withequal rigor.

Get someone you respect to play devils advocate. To argueagainst the decision you are contemplating. Better yet, build

the counter arguments yourself. Whats the strongest reasonto do something else?

Be honest with yourself about your motives. Are youlooking for a smart choice or are you looking to reconfirmyour opinion.

In seeking advice from others, dont ask leading questionsthat invite confirming evidence.

If your advisor always supports your point of view. Changehim. Dontsurroundyourself with yes men


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The Framing Trap

The way a problem is framed can profoundly influence the choicesyou make. The framing trap can take many forms and is oftenclosely related to other psychological traps. A frame can establishthe status-quo or introduce an anchor. It can highlight sunk costs orlead you to confirming evidence.

Decision research highlights two types of frames that distortdecision making. Frames as gains versus losses. People are riskaverse when a problem is posed in terms of gains but risk seekingwhen a problem is posed in terms of avoiding losses. Furthermorethey tend to adopt the frame as it is presented to them rather thanrestating the problem in their own way.

A poorly framed problem can undermine even the best considereddecision.


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Dont automatically accept the initial frame, whether it wasframed by you or buy someone else. Try to reframe theproblem in various ways. Look for distortions caused by theframes.

Try posing the problem in a neutral redundant way thatcombines gains and losses or embraces different referencepoints.

At the end of your decision making process, ask your selfhow your decision would change if the frame was changed

When others recommend decisions, examine the way theyframed the problem. Challenge them with different frames.


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Tanveer


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The Estimating and ForecastingTraps

The Over Confidence Trap: Even though most of us may not be very good at forecasts or

estimates, we tend to be over confident about our accuracy. Think of the implications for

business decisions, in which major initiatives and investments often hinge on ranges of

estimates. If managers underestimate the high end or overestimate the low end of a

crucial variable, they may miss attractive opportunities or expose themselves to far

greater risk than they realize.

The Prudence Trap:Another trap for forecasters takes the form of over cautiousness, or

prudence. When faced with high stakes decisions, we tend to adjust our estimates or

forecasts Just tobe on the safe side. The worst case analysis planning can add

enormous costs with no practical benefits as the likely hood of the worst case may be

low. Too much prudence can be as dangerous as too little.

The Recallability Trap: Even if we survive the above two traps. We frequently base our

predictions about the future events on our memory of past events, we can be overlyinfluenced by dramatic events-those that leave a strong impression on our memory.

Anything that distorts our ability to recall events in a balanced way will distort our

probability assessments.


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To reduce the effects of overconfidence, always start by

considering the extremes of the possible range of values. This

will help avoid being anchored in an initial estimate. Then

challenge your estimates of the extremes. Try to imagine

circumstances where the actual figure would fall below yourlow or above your high, and adjust your range accordingly.

To avoid the prudence trap, always state your estimates

honestly and explain to anyone who would use them that

they have not been adjusted. To minimize distortion through recall-ability, get actual

statistics whenever possible and try not to be guided by

impressions.


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Thank You

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