fred eidlin presentation magreg 2014 (1)

7/23/2019 Fred Eidlin Presentation Magreg 2014 (1)

1/31

Whither Ukraine? 201


2/31

Ukrainian crisis

Involves much more than the issues that set it o

Question o whether or not Ukraines current leausti!ed in dela"in# the si#nin# o an $ssociation$#reement with the %uro&ean Union now seems irrelevant.

'risis has served to cr"stalli(e the visceral dis#uman" Ukrainians or the re#ime under which the)een livin#.

$lso led to the eru&tion o &owerul latent tensioendemic to the Ukrainian &olit".


3/31

$larmin#*

+ore alarmed than I have ever )een since I starteollowin# events in Ukraine in 2004.

'an,t see ha&&" wa" out.

-o&e &eaceul sta)le solution can somehow )e r

+ikhail /or)achev has su##ested ladimir utin

arack 3)ama should take a resolute ste& towahel&in# Ukraine return to the &ath o &eaceuldevelo&ment.5

6eems out o the 7uestion. Wh"?


4/31

What ha&&ened in Ukraine?6tandard version

8anukov"ch &romised to si#n %U $ssociation $#reem 9ussia e:erted enormous &ressure to sto& him rom s

8anukov"ch then turned his )ack on the %U

$n#r" Ukrainians launched &eaceul demonstrations &rotest.

/overnment used violence demonstrations turned u 9ada &assed anti;democratic laws &rohi)itin# &eace

demonstrations.

/overnment violence a#ainst demonstrators continudisa&&earances )eatin#s torture.


5/31

What ha&&ened? 'orrected ver

8anukov"ch since he )ecame resident hasconsistentl" )een stressin# %uro&e is Ukraines

+an" laws have )ein# &assed over the "ears )riUkraine into conormit" with %uro&ean norms.

8anukov"ch tried to #et %U a&&roval to &artici&a

'ustoms Union as well as %U. %U insisted Ukrainto choose one or the other


6/31

What ha&&ened? 'orrected vie


7/31

Co the math

Ukraine,s hard currenc" reserves ell rom DEF)nto around D20)n in =ovem)er.

elow three months, im&ort cover economists saneeded to ensure the sta)ilit" o the national cur

6hould have alread" )een shar& and e:tremel"

devaluation o at least 1FG )ut #overnment &rou& -r"vna. 'ountr" has efectivel" run out o calivin# on its credit cards


8/31

Co the math

>acin# heav" )ond redem&tion schedule;;severaI+> loans last "ear H )illion maturin# this "ear.International ratin# a#encies down#radin# Ukrai

%U ofered onl" 1)n as reward or si#nin# Withcost o %U inte#ration hi#her &rices or 9ussian

hu#e un&aid #as )ills and reduced trade with 9urime +inister $(arov saidA JWe were told that Ucould count on 1)n. 1)n is nothin#. 3ne can sit is a &ittance to a )e##arJ


9/31

I+> loan could tide Ukraine ove)ut

D1F)n stand;)" loan &ro#ram could have made si#nin# a#r&ossi)le.

ut I+> would not link its decision on the loans to the si#nin$ssociation $#reement

Ukraine had re&eatedl" lied to I+> in &revious &ro#ramme ne#otiated under imoshenko,s #overnment@ and has takeline.

Will not release an" mone" until #overnment raises domesttarifs and rees the currenc" e:chan#e re#ime and man" othin#s.

I+> mone" will )e hard to #et will come with a )i# &olitical would not have arrived or months.


10/31

8anukov"chA %U cand" in &rettwra&&er5

8anukov"ch e:&lained &ost&onement


11/31

+otivations o %U

wo aces o %UA -ardnosed &ra#matism and moralistic;id %astern artnershi& driven mainl" )" moralistic;ideolo#ic

)" anti;9ussian olish and 6wedish &ro&onents.

6ke&ticism in %U a)out Ukraine with its hu#e &ro)lems.$ssociation $#reement ver" va#ue a)out how the" will )

%U una)le to &rovide serious su&&ort in li#ht o its well;k

&ro)lems. %uro ske&ticism wides&read UP thinkin# a)ou Unsolved &ro)lems /reece Ireland 6&ain ortu#al ul#

9omania. What is %U ca&a)le o doin# in Ukraine?


12/31

Cee&er 7uestions a)out %Umotivation

Wh" didnt %U &erceive these &ro)lems and when Ukleaders &ointed them out wh" did %U and U6


13/31

%:&lanation o %U and U6 )ehav

6tu&idit" insensitivit"? I+> and /ermans


14/31

Ideolo#ical cons&irac"?

%U and U6 drivers o &roect dont like 8anukov"ch ar9ussian and anti;'ustoms Union. ackin# cou& detaUkraine either to hel& the Ukrainian &eo&le or econo#eo&olitical motivations.

lanners surel" must have reali(ed version o $ssocia$#reement &resented no;win situation to Ukrainian le

%:&ected !erce o&&osition either i 8anukov"ch si#nedlater is he did =3 si#n.


15/31

%vidence o cons&irac"

Wh" the an#er and im&atience re#ardin# dela"in# thsi#nin#?

In normal health" democrac" it is normal or leadersmake such ud#ments and or the voters to ud#e thud#ments at ne:t election.

Under normal re#ime such action would )e de)ated

o&&osition in the le#islatureBo&&osition would criticiaction in the media and in travellin# around the coun

Wouldnt democratic de)ate o &ros and cons o $sso)e health"? +a")e even a reerendum in several "eaas &lanned in UP


16/31

Wh" the hurr"? Was it all &lannand or#ani(ed?

residential election onl" one "ear awa". Would it make sense or national de)ate to )e &art electioncam&ai#n? I have not heard a sin#le ar#ument as timmediate si#nature is im&ortant. Wh" the hurr"?

=ormall" demonstrations 7uickl" dissi&ate i noleadershi&.

Lo#isticsA ents ree ood securit" s"stem take;ov#overnment )uildin#s )" a&&arentl" trained &aram

-ow could it )e s&ontaneous and or#ani(ed so 7uic


17/31

Uni!ed &osition o %U U6 andUkrainian o&&osition

'alls or )oth demonstrators and #overnment to rerom violence )ut concretel" measures onl" aimed#overnment.

'alls or /overnment to make concessions andcom&romises. /overnment has made one concessanother )ut o&&osition a)solutel" un"ieldin# calli

concession mani&ulation.


18/31

ut isnt 8anukov"ch res&onsi)lthe mess?

'ritics alle#e )illions stolen )" 8anukov"ch amil" ariends im&l"in# this e:&lains the D1F )illion #a&Binecient mana#ement ailure to ado&t needed re

ro)lems have &la#ued Ukraine since inde&endenccritici(ed earlier 8anukov"ch saidA Look this is thewe #ot rom our M3ran#e 9evolutionN &redecessors.

Little had chan#ed under 3ran#e re#ime. 6ame coelite same s"stem same ineciencies. 6ituationworsened due to weakness &aral"sis and ine:&eri3ran#e leaders.


19/31

8anukov"chs main &ro)lemAWeakness

hinness o 8anukov"ch s )ase o le#itimac". olitical &olari(ation o UkraineA %ast and West.

3ran#e 9evolution reSected )reakdown o elite coon s"stem )ased on contract )etween nationalists6oviet a&&aratchiki.

=ationalists a#ree not to touch &ower o entrench6oviet )ureaucratic elite i it would su&&ort inde&e

$s Ukrainians lost ear and as &u)lic consciousnedevelo&ed an#er at s"stem #rew.


20/31

8anukov"ch cornered )" ownsu&&ort )ase and Western Ukra

nationalism

Wait a minute* ut are not 8anukov"ch and his su&&oone and the same corru&t criminal 6oviet;re#ime;)aelite?

9eal undamental reorm almost alwa"s )rou#ht a)os"stem;insiders. 3utsiders almost alwa"s destro"ed deeated )" s"stem.

L"ndon RohnsonA 9o)ert 'aro )io#ra&h"A 'aro &ortra"Rohnson as corru&t immoral &ower;hun#r" #enerall"&erson.

8et Rohnson accordin# to 'aro achieved more or $mthan an" other resident in $merican histor".


21/31

6oviet elite and reorm

hink a)out 8anukov"ch and his )ack#round. Coes he want to #o down in histor" as a tool o the

oli#archs or as the statesman who rescued Ukraine

/or)achevA almost all e:&erts )elieved /or)achev interest in reorm. Wh" should he? ower &rivile#e7uivalent o wealth

$sked when he decided to launch erestroika /or)talk a)out his walk in the #arden with 6hevardnad(%ver"thin# is rotten. We cant #o on livin# like this

8et he worked within the s"stem and eno"ed &ow&rivile#e and e7uivalent o wealth


22/31

ro)lem o Western Ukrainiannationalism

Ukraines oundin# Sawed. =ationalist;a&&aratchik oundin# did not inte#rate the

Ukrainian 6oviet 6ocialist 9e&u)lic esta)lished )" Leniand Phrushchevs at the time meanin#less #it o 'rim=ever meant to )e sel;#overnin# &olit".

Inclusion o Western &rovinces which had never )een

9ussia which unlike the 'enter %ast and 6outh had aethnicall";)ased sense o nation mi#ht have doomed &o Ukrainian unit".

-atred and contem&t o 8anukov"ch )ound u& with #econtem&t or the culture o 9ussianT6oviet Ukraine


23/31

6u&&ort or ri#ht;win# nationali&art" 6vo)oda


24/31

+ass &rotests and sei(ures o#overnment )uildin#


25/31

9ussian aims

$t 9ussia;%U 6ummit utin su##ested ree trade)etween %U and the 'ustoms UnionBnot new id

$im o 'ustoms Union never e:clusive never ascom&etitor with %U.

$imA or#ani(e %urasian s&ace &rior to inte#ration

%U +aor im&lications or two o 9ussia,s most im&o

orei#n &olic" &riorities.


26/31

>irst &riorit"A achieve e7ual statwith West in international &olitic

utin strate#ic #oal since 2000B9ussia should )considered e7ual to its transatlantic &artners.

Premlin views West as too &rone to meddlin# in internal afairs o&enl" tr"in# to st"mie 9ussia,s in the 'I6 states workin# a#ainst 9ussia,s trade economic interests.

6ee this ha&&enin# )ecause durin# !rst decade the all o the 6oviet Union 9ussia acce&ted role

unior &artner in relations with West until it.


27/31

6econd &riorit"A ecome maor&la"er

>or 9ussia to )ecome one o the maor &la"ers intoda",s multi&olar world throu#h a close allianceormer 6oviet states.

9ussia investin# hu#e &olitical and economic ca&)uildin# the %urasian Union;;re#ards an" dela"s alread" a&&roved schedule o inte#ration asunacce&ta)le.

9ussian vision or the 9ussian;led %urasian %conUnion to )ecome one o the si: to ei#ht maor ac#lo)al afairs.


28/31

Im&lications o these strate#ic a

'onSicts )etween 9ussia and the West ma" arise even serio

conSicts.

+ain 7uestion is whether 9ussia aims are undamentall" in coWestern interests.

he" are not. Can#ers inherent in alienatin# 9ussia o makinadversar" are ar #reater.

otential or %U and U6 coo&eration with 9ussia not ade7uatee:&loited.

$ttitudes towards 9ussia more anchored in &s"cholo#" than rthreats.

O times as man" Ukrainian see U.6. as #reatest threat to worthan see 9ussia as #reatest threat to world &eace.


29/31

What should U.6. orei#n &olic" likeA =eed or a rethink asic ramework ater WWIIA i&olar world conronta

two ideolo#ical and militar" adversaries enemies riv

U.6. orei#n &olic" esta)lishment mindset ormed witramework.

$lwa"s dicult to )reak out o such esta)lished rameven in advanced natural sciences. =ewtons theor"

e:&lained so much. Who needs %insteins? h"sics a!nished.

Criver o chan#e needed. VXYXZ [\]^Z_`Z resul#rowin# consensus with 6oviet orei#n &olic" elite thaorei#n &olic" was )ad or 6oviet Union.


30/31

3ld ramework new realit"

>ailure o 9ussian orei#n &olic" in 1bb0s drove 9usorei#n &olic" esta)lishment to develo& alternative

What a)out U.6. orei#n &olic"? We won 'old War.Whatever we were doin# was ri#ht so wh" chan#e

$)stract reco#nition 9ussia was no lon#er enem" na driver.

Institutional ramework chan#ed little ramework aha)its o thou#ht did not chan#e undamentall".

9ussian )ehavior seen throu#h lens o e:istin# ramand thou#ht ha)its.


31/31

$n" real conSicts o U.6. and9ussian interests? I dont think so. Co "ou see an"?

-uman ri#hts violations Sawed democrac"? Wh" 9ussis )" ar not as )ad as man" U.6. allies?

Cisa#reements on orei#n &olic" issues? =ot ha)itual ins"stem.

U.6. not accustomed to dealin# with states havin# trul"inde&endent orei#n &oliciesBnot takin# or #ranted rain which U6 is he#emon.

$s utin has &ut it U.6. does not want allies it wants va3 course he e:a##erates inuriatin# %sta)lishment $m)ut contains #erm o truth.

rior to &ost;WWII )i&olar s"stem conSictin# interests

fred eidlin presentation magreg 2014 (1)

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