TREMA 35%

DISMINUCION DE BENEFICIOS -30% BENEFICIOS PRESUPUESTADOS AUMENTO DE BENEFICIOS 10%

PERIODO MONTO

VALOR PRESENTE DE

LOS FLUJOS DE

EFECTIVO PERIODO MONTO

VALOR PRESENTE DE

LOS FLUJOS DE

EFECTIVO PERIODO MONTO

VALOR PRESENTE DE

LOS FLUJOS DE

EFECTIVO

0 -1,469,128.00 -1,469,128.00 0 -1,469,128.00 -1,469,128.00 0 -1,469,128.00 -1,469,128.00

1 355,512.45 263,342.55 1 507,874.93 376,203.65 1 558,662.42 413,824.01

2 442,546.15 242,823.68 2 632,208.79 346,890.97 2 695,429.66 381,580.06

3 613,971.45 249,543.85 3 877,102.07 356,491.21 3 964,812.27 392,140.33

4 746,217.12 224,662.26 4 1,066,024.45 320,946.09 4 1,172,626.90 353,040.70

5 903,493.60 201,491.27 5 1,290,705.15 287,844.68 5 1,419,775.66 316,629.14

6 1,090,276.73 180,108.47 6 1,557,538.18 257,297.81 6 1,713,292.00 283,027.59

7 1,311,795.02 160,520.17 7 1,873,992.89 229,314.52 7 2,061,392.18 252,245.97

8 1,574,141.89 142,683.49 8 2,248,774.13 203,833.56 8 2,473,651.54 224,216.92

9 1,884,398.74 126,522.83 9 2,691,998.19 180,746.90 9 2,961,198.01 198,821.59

10 2,250,767.41 111,941.97 10 3,215,382.01 159,917.10 10 3,536,920.21 175,908.80

VALOR DE

SALVAMENTO 1,000,000.00 49,735.02

VALOR DE

SALVAMENTO 1,000,000.00 49,735.02

VALOR DE

SALVAMENTO 1,000,000.00 49,735.02

TOTAL 484,247.56 TOTAL 1,300,093.50 TOTAL 1,572,042.15

VALOR ESPERADO: DESVIACION ESTANDAR: RIESGO POR UNIDAD DE RENDIMIENTO:

BENEFICIO PROBABILIDAD B*P B-VE (B-VE)2

((B-VE)2)P

484,247.56 0.2 96,849.51 707,066.48- 499,943,013,315.47 99,988,602,663.09 DESVIACION ESTANDAR 368,889.09

1,300,093.50 0.60 780,056.10 108,779.46 11,832,970,729.36 7,099,782,437.62 entre

1,572,042.15 0.2 314,408.43 380,728.11 144,953,891,434.66 28,990,778,286.93 VALOR ESPERADO 1,191,314.04

RENDIMIENTO ESPERADO: 1,191,314.04 VARIANZA: 136,079,163,387.64

DESVIACION ESTANDAR: 368,889.09 COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION: 0.3096

ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO