caracterización de las variables deterinantes del riesgo en el microcredito rural

8/18/2019 Caracterización de Las Variables Deterinantes Del Riesgo en El Microcredito Rural

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CARACTERIZACI N DE LAS VARIABLES DETERMINANTES DEL RIESGO EN ELMICROCREDITO RURAL

DIEGO ANTONIO ZAPATA ARANGO

DIRECTOR

SERGIO BOTERO BOTERO.

D.Sc.

CODIRECTOR

ALEXANDER CORREA ESPINAL.

P .D.

TESIS

MAESTR A EN INGENIER A ADMINISTRATIVA

PERFIL PROFESIONAL

ESCUELA DE INGENIER A DE LA ORGANIZACI N

FACULTAD DE MINAS

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA

MEDELL N 2009


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La M c a a a a c ac ba a ca a a a c a b a c a a c a b ac

ab . E C b a, b a a a a c c a ca E a . L aba a a

a ab a a ca ac ac a c ac M cR a , a a a a a a b a a ca . La ac aa a a c , ac a a a a c

aba a c c a C b a, a c ca a a ac a a A D c a a R L ca B a a b ca c a a a a a, , a a

a a , a a c a a a a ab a a ac a a ac a ca a c c a c a .

PALABRAS CLAVES: M ca F a c R a (MFR), c a , c ac c a c , c c a c a (IMF) ac

a c a a , a c , , , aa ac , a c , a c a a , ca ac ac , a

a c a , ca b a a,

M c a c , a a c a a a a c ab a , a b c a c c ba . I C

a a b c c a S a c . T a c c a ab

c a ac a a c c c , a c ba ab c c .

T a c c ba a a a a a a b a a c a a c c C b a. I a ca

c , c a D c a A a , a B a L c R ( ),

a a , a , ba a c a ab a a ac a , a c a c c a a a .

KEY WORDS: R a F a c a Ma (MFR), a c , c a c , c ac a c (MFI ) a c a ac , c ,

a a , a c , a c a , a a c , c a ac a a cc a a a , b a c ,


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TABLA DE CONTENIDO

INTRODUCCI N Pa .

1. MARCO TE RICO 41.1. M c a a a 41.2. R c a a a 81.3 R a c ac a ca a c a a 91.4. T c ca a a a 101.5. C a cac a c ca a a 101.6. E a a a a a . 111.7. A c a 121.7.1. H a c 121.7.2. Ob a c a 131.7.3. S cc a a ab 13

1.7.4. Ta a a a 131.7.5. D a a a ac c a a 141.7.6. S a a b a c c a 141.7.7. E ac a c c a a 2 a a a b 14

1.7.8. I ac a 151.7.9. Va ac a 161.8. R ca 161.8.1. E ac ca 171.8.2. I ac c c 171.8.3. Va ac a b a a a 182. E a a 19

2.1. T aba a 202.1.1. E aba , a cac a c a ca a a a a a c a

20

2.1.2. E aba , a a c c a ca a ba c .

21

2.1.3. E aba , .

21

2.1.4. E aba , 222.1.5. U ba c a ca a ,

. 23

2.2. A cac a a a . 233. M a 263.1. Ob c a 263.2. D c c a ba a 273.3. E cc 283.4. D c b a c a 293.4.1. Va ab 293.4.2. S cc a a ab 303.4.3. Ta a a 303.4.4. S a c a 31


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3.4.5. C c a c a 323.4.6. A a c a a aba 333.5. M 343.5.1. E c a 343.5.2. S cc a a ab 353.5.3. I ac a 363.5.4. A a a aba 384 CONCLUSIONES 405 RECOMENDACIONES 42

BIBLIOGRAF AANEXOS


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TABLAS

Pa .Tab a 1. C a a c a a . F a a a c a 6Tab a 2. Va ab c a a a a c 30Tab a 3. Ta a a a. a c a 31Tab a 4. R a a ba b 32Tab a 5. C c a a a a c c a ca ca Tab a 6. A c a a 34Tab a 7. Va ab ca ca a a c 35Tab a 8. S cc a ab a a c 3Tab a 9. R 37Tab a 10. Va ab a c ac 37Tab a 11. Tab a c a cac 38


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TABLA DE ILUSTRACIONES

Pa .I ac 1. C a cac ba a c ca a a a aI ac 2. Ca ac ac a c a a a cI ac 3. E a c cc a ab 21I ac 4. H a a a a ab % c a a a a 33


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TABLA DE ANEXOS

A 2 A La E c D 33 Va ab .A 1 c c 44 a ab c a c a a


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INTRODUCCI N

E a a ca a M c c a c a a a a a c ac a a a a , a a

c a a a ca a a a a c c a a b ac ab , b ca c c c a a

a a 2015, a c a a a a ca a Ob D a M , a cc c b a. S a c a a a a C

I ac a b M c c , a Wa D.C., 2 4 b1997, c c c :

(c a LACALLE, 2007: 1)

E C b a b c a a a caa a ac a a a c a ca, c c

a c a a a c a P c a a R b ca, baAcc S c a , M A c a D a R a , S c NacA a (SENA), F Nac a Ga a a (FNG), D a a Nac a P a ac , . E a a a a c , c a

a a b ca cac a a , a a cc , a c a c ca a a a . E a ba c a

c a ab a , ca a a a ac c c c a a c cac c a a ac a ca

a a ca a ab .

E aba a a ; a aa c c c c a c b a , a

a a ba a ac c c a ba c , c ca ac ca a a ca c a . D c a c a c a a a c a a a cac c , c

ac a ca a c a c a a c a a .

A c ac a a a c c b c a c a a cab aba ac , a a c c a

a a a a a a a .

U a c c a E a A , b ca ba aaba ac a c a a ac c c , ca cac c

ba ca ( c ), cc b a a ac a ; a


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a a ca c ca a c c a ; a c aba a c a a c ; ca a ,

ab a ac a , a ab c a c a ca cac c c , a a c a b . Pa a

c c , c c cc a ; a c a a a a a acc a a ba a , a c a c ac cc ac ; a ab a a ac . E ,

a c a; c a a ab a a c a a c a a a a ac , a c a c cc c a

c b .

C a ac c a b c a , a a a a a c ; S a a b ac c a a a a a ac c c ac c ca ac a a c a a , c a c

a c a c a aba a aba a ca c ac a a c a ; a a a c ca a

b a , c a c a b a , c ac a a c a cac ba c a aba

ba a a a a a ac c c a a a c c ; a ca c

b ac c a 1 a 30 a , c b a a ; c c a30 a , c b c . E a c a a a a a a a

a a c a ac a c , a c a ca c c 30 a , c a a ca

c a c , a a c a a a ; a , a c c c , ca a c a c c , a

a a a a a c a , a c c a ca a a a a a , a a caca ac a ca a c c a c c c a c a

A c a a a b a a cab a ac , c a a a c ca a a c a c a

a a , c A D c a a R L ca B a a c a c a a (HAIR, 2004) a c a a a . S a a ca a

a c a a a a a a a ab a c a a a ac c a c a a ba a

a a a .


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S a a a a c aba a a a a ac , a a a ac a ac a a

a a a a a a a ac b a caa a , a ac c a a a c a c a

ca a a a a a a a c a a a b aca c c ; a ca a a ac

a c ca ac a c a a a ; a a c a a c a a a a a c c b a ca a a c a a a.


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1. MARCO TEORICO

1.1. M c a a R a

L a c , , A ca La a a c a , a a a c a c a a a a ac c a

a a ca a a b , c I ba a a a La a ca Ca b Ba c M a : Ya c

a c a a a c a c a a ab b 75% a cc ; a c a a a

a a a a a ca a ca . E c a a a a a c

a c a , ba a c a , a a c a a c c a , a a a c c c aba . Y a b c , a

a a a c a a c c caac a a b a a c c a a a a a a a a a

acc a c , c b c a c a (WORLD2008). Pa a a c a c a a a , a

c c a c a , c a a ab .

E c a a c a c a c ca a a a a ac a c a , a a

ca ac a a a a a a a c a a a a , , a a ac c b a a a c a c a a

D c a a, c c M c a a c c a ca c , a ca ac , a

a c a. P a a , b c a a c a a c c cb a c a a a c

a a c M c a a , cca ac a a a a c a a a a . (CATULLO, 2006: 2)

Hac a c c ca a a ca a c a a a a

c a c a a a a a a a b : a a a, c c ac a ba a c ,

a a c a a a c a c c aba a a ac c ; a ONG a c a, c c a c a a ONU ac

c c a a . S ba , a c a , a ac a a a a a a a c c c a c a c a c

b a a , a a aba a b ca c a b a c aba. S c c c b a


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ca b , ca , acaba c a c a a a a aa a ca b a a a b , c ac a a a acc c a a c c b a

a c ac a c a a a a c ac(LACALLE, 2007).

La a a a c c c a a , c a acBa a a E a U , M a a Y (P N b Pa a 2006). , b a a a b a a ba

c acc a a a a a a a , bc a a a . Y a a b ac a ba c , c a a ca c a b a a a

a a a . Pa a c ba c c a a a c b , Yc c a ba c a c c a a . S a b ca

c ca a b a c a . E a a, a cc a a ( a a c ac 97%) a a a c

a a Y a a a c Ba c a a P b , c ca c Ba c G a ; c c a a ac

a a a a c a , a a c ac a a a a a ac ba c c b a a b

(CATULLO, 2006:2).

E a ca c c Ba c G a a a a a a c a a, a a a b a a a

a a a a . E c a a c c a . La ca c c c c a c a

c a c a a . S c c a a a a a , a caa b a c a a c c a a ,

a a ab a a a b a a a . A c a a b c a a a a a a c a

a a ca b a c b a a a a a a a a c a a c a cac (RESTREPO, 2003). E a a c a

a a a a c a a, a a ab a a c a a a c c c , a c a ac a c . L b c , a ca ac ac , a cac a

a , c c ab c bc a ca a c a G a . Pa a ac a a c c ,

a c a a M c a a . F a a T a c a (Tab a 1).


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E A ca La a a a ac a c a c a a 30 a , a a a c c a 50

70 a , a . La c ca a c a a a a a c a a a a , c ca A ca C a , B

P ; a c b a a ac acc a a c a c b (GUTIERREZ, 2004: 8).

Tab a 1. C a a a a a c a V . c a a

M ac c a

• Ba a a a a a a.• R c ac a .• E c a

c a .

• Ca c ac a c aa , a a a .

• Ba a a a ca ac ca a a c a a.

• E ca a a c ac .• E a c a

a / b a c c .• D c a

a a c a .Ca a a • P a a ab ,

a a ca .

• C a a a ca a .• Ca a ca a.• A a a ca a c a a a

ab .

• Ca a c a .

• A a a a a a a ca, ac ca c ca a

a a a c a .• Ca a c ba a cac .• Ca a c a a .

C a • R a a ba .• Ga a a a

a a : a , a c a,c , b c a , c.

• A , a , a a a

c a a a a c a .• P c a a a

E c a ca a a ac

• Acc a c a a c c .

• I c a a a aa .

• O a ac c a a a cc a a c a .

• F a a acc ac a c .

• S a c a ONG.

• S c a a a aa a c a c a

b .

F • D b c ,a ca a a a ,

b ac c ab , c.

• P c a b ac ac a ; ca a . E a a

a a a a ca a ( a ba ).

C /a a

• E a c a aa , c

cac /a .

• E a ba, a a a ;

c ac a .T a (CATULLO, 2006: 2)

P b a c ca a M c a a La a ca a a a a a ba a , a a a ca c


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a c , a c c c a a aca c a , b , a a , a a c c a a c

a ac c a c ; b c a acc ca ca ca a a a c

b a ab a a a c c ca , a a a a cc , a a cc a c c ; a c a a a c a

a c a c ca a ac a a c a ca a a , a c a a c a ac a b c a a a c ab a

a . O ac a c a a c a a c a c ca ca a c a ; c ba a , c

a c a a a c a , a c W : c acc a a a c ac a a c a

a a c a a a c a; a , c aa c a , a c a , a c ca c a b

(WENNER, 2007: 5, b a a )

C b a a a c b a ba ca a a a La a ca; a c a ca a 10,200 ab a , ca a M c c a ab cB a . E a a a a c a ba ca a ca a 16,300 ab a 68%

c a c a c a a c a, a b a accc , a c a C b a, b a

c a a c a ba ca a , a c a a a a c a c , ca, b , a ba ca, c ca c c , a a ca ba a ca ac c cac c .(C a 2003, c a CARO, 2003:

20)

E a , a ac c c a c , ca , a c , c a a c a c ,

ca c b a , b c ; cc ca , b a c c a ac , c a a a ac ac c ab a a a a c a a . Y a

a , c a acc , a ac a c a a ba ca b ac a a c a a a

a , a c b a c a a c a a a c ca c b a c a c c a , c aca ac a a . (CARO, 2003: 3)

E a a a ac ab a a a a a a c acc c a a a a c a a a ; a a

b c c b a ; c c a a D c a Ma a I R


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A a , c a a Ca a C ac Fa a A a, COMFAMA, c a c ca a ,

c ca a A c ac Ba ca a: C c c a c c c a a a a a ac a ac a c ca ca , b a a a a a a c c , c

a c a , b c cc c a . E a c c a a c . D b a a b c a a , a

cc c a , c ; a ca a ab a ca, c ac a a c a a a a a a. E , a a c c a ac a b ,

a a b a a a . E a ac : c c c a a b a c

a. (RESTREPO, 2004)1.2. R c a a a

E a c a c ac N a c : c a ac ca c a c ca a a c

a c ca a a a c a c ac a ca a (NIMAL, 2008: 44). N a c a a a a

c a a a b a a c a a c a a

E c a c a a a c a c ca

c c c ; , c b ab a c a ca a a ac c ab c :

c c a ( a a , a , ac , a ), a b a a a a c c a , a ba c c c a bb ab a c a a c c a a b ,

a ac c , c.; a c ca c c a , a ca a c c

a , a a b a a (CGAP 2005a, . 2c a NIMAL, 2008: 17); a a c a ,

a a , c a c b a c a a . E

c c c a b ca a a ab a : c ca b a a a c c c , b

b c a c a b a c a c a a , c a c a , b c a c b a , c a c b

ca a a a c a cac c ac, a a a a a a c a


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c c a c ca a a a a ca ; a a ac b c c a c a acab a a c a

b b a , c a b a a a .

S ba , a a a a a a b bc a a c c a c

a a I c c a a B a, C b a P c a ab ba a a ab a ac a a a

c a c a a c 1998 99. (WESTLEY, 2006: 5) E a a c a a c a ab

a a a c a. (GUTIERREZ, 2004: 17).

1.3. R a c ac a ca a c a a .

La a ac a ca a a a a c a , a c a c c , a a c ac a , a c

c a a b ac c a a c . E a c 1 a 30 a , a a c , c b a a

a a a ; a b c a a 30 a , a a a ba c c c a c a , c c b

a b ac a a ca, a a c a cc a ac / a a a a a a a c b a b ac .

C a , c (D c 919 2008), a a c c a c c c aba c a a

c , c c a c a 90% c b a ac a , a c a a ba c , c :

C ca F A c a Ga a a FAG, C ca F Nac aGa a a FNG; Ga a a F aca , a ; a a ca c c a a C b a. Hac c a a a a a

a a c a a c c a , a a a a a a a a c .

B ca a a a c ac ca a, a a ac a a a a a a c a a c ca a ca ,

, a a a a ca a ba ca a c a a a cac c c a cac c a a a a a ca

c a a a a a a a. A a a a a c b a a a a c ac a a ac a a . D b a a b c a


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a ac ba a a c a c c a a c a (H 1986, M L a 1986 c a ELIZONDO, 2004) ca

a c a a a a c a .

E c , , aba ca a a c ca a c a a a a a a a c c a a c a c ; c

a a a c c c , a a a c cac ac a a a a c

a ca c ab a .

1.4. T c ca A M a a

E a c ca ac a ca b a , c

c b a a c a ; a , a a cc a a c a a a b a a .

D b aca a ca ac a a cac a a a , a ; a c a a ab

a ac c a c a a , ac a c a ab , c a a ab c .

E a c ca a a a a a a a c a cac a a ac a , b , a a a a a ca ,

a a c c a ac a a c c a c a ; c a cc c , b a a cac c ca ca c ab .

1.5. C a cac a c ca a a .

E a c c ca a a ca a a ac , cac a ac c a ab , a a a c a a a

. E c a a a, a a a ca a a ac a a ab (HAIR, 2004: 5).

La a ab c , ac a a a c a c a a c a a . L a c a a

ac a b c a ca ac ca aa c a a ac ca ca a a ca a . E ,

ca a a c a, a cc a c ca a a c a , c c a a a a ab a a (V ac 1, T a PER

2004, . 3).


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1.6. E a a a a a .

E c a a c c ac ca a aa a a a (SALVADOR, 2000)(HAIR, 2004):

• Ob a .

S a a b a; c c a ac a a( c a c a) a a a ; a ac a a c a a a ab a b a a c ca a a

a .

I ac 1. C a cac ba a c ca a a a a

M M a a

T a PEREZ, C., 2004, . 3


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• D a .

S ab c a a a a a c ca ac a a ; c , a a a a .

• H a .

S a a a b ac a a c ca a a c a. D c a a a , a a , c a, c a c a , c. a b

b c ac c a .

• E ac M .

S a a a a a a a a . E a a ab ac a ca c a c a b a a a .

• E cac a .

S a a c , c c a c c a a a a ac .

• Va ac a .

Pa a c a a b ; a a

b ac c a c , c ab a a c b c a a a a a , a

a a c a a a .

1.7. A D c a

1.7.1. H a c

E A D c a a c ca a a a a c cR a A F (1890 1962), a a cac a a c a c a

c c b a ca ac c c a a a a ; a a b c a a ca c a a2002: 391 392).

S c a c a a a ab c a a aca a ( a ca) a a a ab ca . I

a b c a c , c , a c b ac a ( a ab a c a cac c ac c a;

c b ac a a a ac c c a


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a . L a ca bc a ab c a a ca ac a c ac ; a ab ca ca , a .

E a c b ac a c c c c c a ; a a a a c a a a c a cac c a bab a

c c ac (VISAUTA, 1998: 128); ab c ac a c a a a c a a a c a a a a c

.

1.7.2. Ob A D c a

E A D c a b a c c( c c a ) c a c a a c a a

c ca, c a c , a a a bab (GUTIERREZ, 1994: 85). L b c a : I a c a c a a c a

c a a a ab c a a , a a a a cab a c c a cac ca c a a a . E b a a a a a

A D c a : A A , c a (SALVADOR, 2000).

1.7.3. S cc a a ab

Pa a a ca A D c a , a b c ca a a a ab a a . Pa a ca a a a

b ca ca a a ab ca . E a a a b ac a a ab

( c ca) ( c ca), c a a c . Ec a a a a ab ; a b cc a b

ac a a a a a a a .

1.7.4. Ta a a M a

E a c a A D c a a a ac b a a

a ab a . E 20 b ac a ab ; c a 5:1. T

a a a ab b b ac a a ab . (HAIR, 2004: 263) L a

c c a a a a a a b


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a a a cc a a a a a a a a c a c a c a.

1.7.5. D a a a ac c a a

C a c c a c a ab a a a a a , c baa a c c a , a c c a a b ac

a a a , b a ac a ; a ac a ac a a. E a a c b c

ac a a ( a ca c c a a a a , a c a ,

c a a cac a a a c a .

1.7.6. S a a b a c c a

La b c a c c a ca a b a a a a a a a a a ab a c

( a c ) c a a a c c a ( a ) a a (H2004: 264). A a c a ca c a a

• La a c a a a a b a ac ac c a ; ca c a A L .

• S a a c a a a c a a a a , b b a a c a cac ; ca c a c ca

c a cac c a ca .

• S a a b a c a a a a ab , bb a a ac a a a , a c ca

ac c c a a b a .

• L ca a c a c a a c a a cc a ca a c a a a c a . L ac a a a a a a c ,

c a .

1.7.7. E ac a c c a a D2 Ma a a b

P a a a C a a Ma a a b , (1893, 1972), c c H ac aa ca a ca a. La D a c a Ma a a b a a a c a c 1936. S a a ca a a a a

a ab a a a a . S c a a a c a c a


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c a a c ac a ab a a a . La c ca c aa a a a ab c a a a c a ,

a a ab , a c ac a a ab . E a a ab a c c c c a a a ba a (E c b , 2008:18). E c a a cab a

a a a a a b a a ab , a ab , a c a a a a a a ab c

a a cc a a ( c 0,05 a ). (HAIR, 1999:287).

C aca I c c cca ab :

• N a a a c a.

• U a c c cc , c a ac c a cac .

• E cac ba a ab c a a a a ab b a a a ac a a

(F a , 2000),

Y a a a :

• La a c a Ma a a b c a a c ac aa ab a a ac ca a a ab , a .

• E I a a a ac a a , a c aca b ca a.

• La a c a Ma a a b c a a c ac aa ab a a ac a .

• E I a a a ac a a , a c aca b ca a.(SALVADOR, 2000)

1.7.8. I ac a

La ac a a c , b a , a c a a a b ac c a a

ac c a . E c c a a a cc a a a a a a c a a a ca a a a a ab


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ca ac a a a c a . L a a a c a a a :

L c a a a a . E a a a c a a a c a , c b a a a ca a a a a a ca a a a a ab a c . C a a

, ca a a a c b c a a a ab a a c . La a c a c b a c a a c .

La ca a c a ( c a c ac ) a c ac a ca a a ab a c c a . La ca a c a

a a a a a ab c a c a c c a a a c ca a ac a a a a a c b c a a ca a a

c a a c c a .

L a F a c a . C a a b a a aa a a c a a a a ab

a F a c a . E a a a a a ab aca a a . G a a F ca a

c a . E c a a b a ca c a a a ab . (GRAJALES, 2000)

1.7.9. Va ac a

E c c a a a a a a c c a a a a a a a a a ac

a. E ca c a c c a c a aa a a a c a a ac a a. La c c a ca

a a a a a a c a ca a a a a a. E a a aca c a a c a a a a cac a

a .

1.8. R ca

La R L ca a b a a ac ca a a a ab . E A L b c . E

a a a ab b c ca cab . E a , c , b c a a a a a ac . S ba , b a a b a c c a cac

(S , 1995), a c ca, a a a a a a , a , a c a a a a c c a cac


24/58

(Za , 1985; K , 1992; H , 1993). O (1980); O a . (1993) c a (BALCAEN S. 2006). P a a , cab aca A L

a a b a c a a (O a ., 1993; O a ., 1994aD Z , 1999) c a (BALCAEN S. 2006), a c a aa a a a c (J a . 1998b) c a (BALCAEN S. 2006). A

b a A L c a a a (T c a a a A L ba a a a c a ,

a a c ac a a , a c c c a c a a a . P , a a a ab

b a a , a ba a b a a a a a (McL a O a , 2000) c a (BALCAEN S. 2006).

1.8.1. E ac R L ca

La a a a a a a ac ca a a ca , E a a c a a ac bab

c c . P , a a a a a a c a a a ca c a a a a ba .

1.8.2. I ac C c

U a a a a a ca c a ab c ( c , b a a a ) a a c

a c c c a ab . A a a c c , c c ac a bab a c a a

a cc a bab a a 0,50, c a cc , ca . La a cc a bab a a

a c :

L c c a (B0 , B1 , B2 , , B ) a a , c a a a ( a a a a ) a a a c c b a bab a , a c

ca b a a a a a c c ; c c a a bab a , a a a a bab

c a. Pa a a a ac a a ab c c b a c a ac a a a

.


25/58

1.8.3. Va ac La B a A M E a

E a ca b ca a a c c a b a c a a ( ac a a a). E a a a ba c a

a a a a . (Q 2 c aa a 2LL) U c b a a a a 2LL. E a a a 2LL c . (U a c

1 2LL c .) E a a c a a a c ac , a c a a ca b a c

a c ac a a. E c a c c a a a a a cc a a c a a a a b a a a cc a a a. U , a a ca c a a a a

c a a a a a, c a a a a a a c a acA a c a ac a ca c c a a , a c

a a a R2 a a a a ba .

H L b a a a c a c a cac . L ca 10 c a a a a a . L , c a

c c a a ca a c a c a c c c a a . E c ac a a a ba ac c a ba a a

, a cc a a a ab . E ac a a b a a a a .

La a ac a A L a a ac a a a A D c a .


26/58

2. ESTADO DEL ARTE

Ca ac a a ab a a ca a c c , abc ac a ba a a c a c

a c ( ac 2 a a O a, 2004.), c a a c a c a a ac a a

a a a (OSSA, 2004.) c c b ac a, c a b a c c

D ac c Ja A. H , a ca ac a c a a a a aa a. E a c M L a a a a a c

b a a a a c ac a a a ab c(c a E , 2004). D b a a c a a ac a a , a a ca a a ac ba a a c a cc a c a c a (ELIZONDO, 2004:51).

I ac 2. Ca ac ac a c a a a c

T a a O a, 2004

A c a ac c ac a c c c a a a ab ; c a a a a ca a a a a , c a a

ac , a a c a ca a a c ca c a a a a . L a a a a a c a c c

a a a a ab c a c a c , c a a ; c a c

a , c a a a b a a c , b ca a c ac

Enfoque deltrabajo


27/58

b a ac , ba a a c , c a a a , a a c ac , a a a

c . (QUINTANA, 2005: 176). E a ac a a ca ac a c a a a a a a a a a a ca

a a a a :

C ac c a a c a ?

C c b a a ac a a b c cc ?

C a a b a c ?

Q b a a a a ab a ?

C ab c c ba b a ? (ELIZONDO, 2004: 54)

P a a a ac a ac c a a a a a c c ,

b a a a c a c a a a a a a a , b a ca a a ac c a c a, a c c

a ca a a a a c ca a a c(ELIZONDO, 2004:51). T a a a a c c

c ca b ca , c a , ca a a ac a c a cac , a

c ca a ca (QUINTANA, 2005: 177); c bab aa , ca, b , a c a (M , 1997

(S a , 2002). L a a bab a a c c a a a a ca ac ca a c a

c ca c a a ac ca a ac a bab a ac c a a a cac a a.

bab a a a a a ac a , c a a bab a a a b c ca,

b c a a bab a b ac a c ac a a a . E ca b A D c a

a bab a a ; a c a a ab a c c a a ba c c (S a , 2002). O ba a a , a

c a a cac c a a a c c a , ca c a a a cac a c ca a ca a c a .

1997) c a (S a , 2002).


28/58

D ac a c a (Ba ca , 2006) A D c a c b ac a a a ab c a a c a

a a a; a c c a a c a b a cac a a c b a c . E a a a , ba

a ca c a b a c a a acc a a a a a c a cac a

A , a a b a a ab a c ca a ba a , ca a a a ac c

D c a (A a , 1968) c a (Ba ca , 2006) c c ca , c a (O V ba , 1985) c a (Ba ca , 200

P a a , cab aca c c a c ca, , a c a a a a a ab c c , a a c

a c c (A a , 1968; B , 1974; T A1975; E b , 1977; Ta , 1983) c a (Ba ca 2006) ac a cac a a a a a . D a a a, a a a a a a a a a a a c

c c a a ac c a a cc . (Ba c2006).

E a c ca c a a a (E , 1972; E b , 1977; Za1983; Ka P a a , 1987) c a (Ba ca ; 2006). E a c a c c , c , c a a .

a , A D c a ba a cc ca a a bab a aca c a cac c .

a a aca a a c a ca a cc aca a c ba

c c a , a c ca a a ca a aa c a a a c a a a a a ac ( A a T , 19

E b , 1977, R c a Da , 1984; Za , 1985) c a (BALCAEN S.2006).

L ac c (MPC) c c a a a a a A a (1968) Z c . E a , MPC b a a

a . N a , a MPC a c c a a a ca ca ac ca c a

a. E a a a a a a c ac b a a a a ca ac ca c a aa a ca a c ca a , a ac a

a a a a a a c a ca ac b a ab c a a ab a , a a . A a, MPC a ca a a


29/58

a c a a a a bab a c c c . Ba a ac , a ac c ca c a a aca a c a a , a a ca

a a a , a , c a a . E a acb c a a a c a MPC a a a c a a a a

c a ac a a, c a a a a ac (T a ; 2007). Ea MPC c a c a c b a a b ca , c

ac a a b c , bab a a , b , a c a .

E T aba , C R A U A M c a H a c ca D cA ac . A c a a a , (M. DOUMPOS, 2002: 392 411); c c a

b a c a a a cab a a c a a ac c , b a ba a c c c

c a a (MCDA). E a c c ac ca a a a a c a a a a a c c c a a ab ac c c , a a a c a ca c

a c c , a a ca a a a a ca ac a a a ab a c EBIT, ac , a ba a c c c a, a a c a , a ;

ac a , ca a aba ; a c ba ac c c a c b a a ac a c .DOUMPOS, 2002: 405).

E T aba , A cac A D c a Y R L ca a a a a c a . C a ac a (QUINTANA, 2005)

c b a a c a a a ac a a c a ac c , a a ac a ac

a c a c ; a a a c a a c ca a ca c a a a c a a a a a , c A

D c a , a c a a a a a c a c a R L ca, a c a ba a a a c

a a c a . Pa (I ac 3) a c , c a a a ac a a ab a

a a , a a c cc a a c b. E c a a a c ca a c a c a ca a c a a a a cc a a , c

a a ba c ca a a a cac a c a. (QUINTANA, 2005: 195).

I ac 3. E a c cc a ab


30/58

E T aba , A a c c a caba c . U a a a a cac (FLOREZ, 2007: 71) ; a

a a a a a a c , c a c a a : a cc a ab ca a (

a a FLOREZ, 2007: 71), L a a a , a a a aba cc a a a b c a a a a a a,

a a ac a ac , a c ca (b a ). La ac a a a a a 52 ba c

a , aca a a a 1978 1982, a ab a b , a c aba a

ca aca ba ca a ca ab a , a, ca a .

E T aba , A (ARAGON, 2004); aa a b c cc a a a ba a a

ac c a . U a c c AD c a M a a a ca a a c a cac b a

a a a a c ca c a ca, a c a a a a c a c a a a ca A

D c a . S ba c aba a a a a c ac c ab ba a a , a b c a a a c ca a a ca c cc

a ab , a ac b c a a a a a a caa b a c c a , a a a

c a a ac a a ab ca a , a a a c a a c b a a . A a c c a a

a c ca , c , a a a c ab a a b bab a a a a . La ac ba a a c c a a a


31/58

: a a , ba a c a , a a c a c b a , a c b c c a c a c c

D ac c ARANGON, a a a ca a b a c a a ca ca a c a c , c a ca

bab a c a, a c a a , c a c a c a a ; a a cc

a a a a a c a ab ca a c b a c a c ac c a a a ab a b c a

a a a . (ARAGON, 2004: 8).

E a a a c a a a a c c a a a c a c b ca c ab a a cac a ca

a c a a ca A D c a . Ta b a c aca a a a a ac a a a ab c a c ca

c a a a c a , a c a a c aa a ab , a a c ca a a ac a c

c a a c a a c b c ca a a ab a a ca acc a a c c a . (ARAGON, 2004:8) T a c c

a ab cc a a , ca ac a a a a ac a c a a c a a . D ca a a a ac c

a a a 90 a , c a a a a a ac a c a aa ; a c c A D c a M a a c

c c ab a a a cc a , ba a ab c ac a a c b c a , c a b a a

a cac A C P c a .

P c a a a c c cac a c c c a ca a c a c a ca a ac , ca a c c , b c a c .

Ma (JBF, 1977), a a b a , c a , a a c a ba ca a 19975, 76, c a 23 ba c a a , a b

c a cac a c a ca b a b a . W (JBa M L c a ac a a a c c a c

c a c a a a a a bab a a b a ba ca

S b a ba a a B , C , Ha , T a (1992D a , C , O (1996, 1997), H (1995), S a a K (1987), Y ba ,C , R (2000) a T a (2000) Ha (2000), c

a c a a cac a c ca c : E A


32/58

c a a L ca ( ), c a a cac b a a a a; S a a a ac a a a a ca a , b a a a ca ac ca

c a a c a a a a a a a ca a a a a b a ; a a c

a a a b a c ba a a c ca ca (L ) ac a cac a, a a c a a a

a ca cac c a cac c a . (THANH, T 2007):

A , Ba c I A ca D a , a a a a c a a

c a c a A ca La a, ca a c a(WENNER, 2007: 1), ca c c ca a a c c

b c a : ba a a ac ca a b a a a c c a a a; c a

a c a ca a a b a a a ca ac a a ac ; a c a a a cac

a a a c ; a acac ( ca, c a , c b c ); c a (

b a a c c a a a a a a a ac ac c a a a

a ); c a c ca a a c a, a 40 ca a ; ac c a c (WENN

2007: 24).


33/58

3. METODOLOGIA

E a cc a a a b a, ab ac ac ca aa ba a c c c c a c a , a

ba ca a, a a c c a a a c c a a a a a ac

a b a, a a cac . F a a aa ab a c a a a ac a a c a a

c a a c c / a ac c cca ca a a a c c c , c a a c a

3.1. Ob c D L Da :

E a cc a c a a c : a c ca cac c c C b a , D c 919 31 Ma 2008, ab c a a c a c a c c c

a a c a a b . E a a ab a , c c c a a c

a a c a ( a a a ca) a a a a ; , a a c c a ca c

c a c a , a a ba ca a, ac ; a a a b

a a a b a a c c c a ba a a a; c a ca a a ba a a

c a ba a a a ab c . La ca ac ca b a a ba ca a a a a a : a c c (5) 84

ac a (6) a 36 ( c a a a ); a ca a a , a a a , ac a ca a a ac

a c a a; a a a a DTF + 4% EA.

D c a b a c c a a a c c ba c E c , a aba a ac c a

ba ca a. C a a ac a a c c , a a b ca ac a ca ac a a c c . A

ac a ba a c a a , a a 6.500 , c a a b ac c a , a c ; a

c a ca a 3.200 c c a a ac a a ac a a c CD ( c c ac

c a b a a a , a ab c a (4) c a a a a a . F a a a a a a a


34/58

a c 2.347 , c c a c 30 b 200b a a 2005 2007.

La , c , a a a a a a b a ac : a a c b a a ab a ca

c a a, c a a c a a c b c a a a ac c a a (R , 2003: 4), a a c

a b a a a ac c a a , a c a c a a c a c cc a c c

c a a a a a , ba c ac aba a a ca a a a a a a , a a a a c a ac a, c a a a a

a a b a a a c a ca , bc c a , c ac c ab a a a. La a

a a a b a a ab a a a a a c c c ac ab a c a, c c a a a ac a c a c , a a a a c a a a

c c b a a b , a a b a a a a , a a c a

(R , 2003: 1).

3.2. D c c D La Ba D Da

La ba a c ba c c a c c a ab , a a a . E aa ab c a a c a ca a

, a a : ac c , a c a, ca ac c c a b ac c c a; a a a a a a a a c a a a a a c

c a c , c , c , c c , c , , ccc , a a b ac , cac , b ac , c a,

, c.; a c a a cc a a : c a aac a a c a c a a, c c , c a, a

a a, a a c a a , a , a c a , a a O a a a a b ac : c ,

, a c , a , a c ,

, ca a , , a . E a ac a b ca a a a a a a c c c c a a a a a a a bab a c

a c c a c a c c a ca a : a cac ac , a ca

cc a a ab a a c a a a cc a a c a a a a a a bab a c (ELIZONDO

2004: 76); a b 44 a ab . (A 1):


35/58

C a c a a a ab , b aba a a a cc a a, a a, a a a c c a ac c c a

a a a a a a a ac , ca a a c c a a a ac , a ab a a a, a a a a , b a

c a ca a a a a a . A a c , ca a 33 a ab (A 2): (7) ab a (accca , c c a c ca, c a a ac a , a c a, c

a a a ), c a a ca a a , a a a a a a a a c a a

b a b a b a ac , c c c c , a a c a a a ; 10 a a ( cac ,

c c ba c , FAG, c a b , a a a, ac a, b acc a, a c , a) a aba a a a a a c a a b

16 a (A ac , ba a a a a, a c ba c , a c ba c , c a c a, c a

a a a , c a ac a a , c a , c c , a a a), a a a , a ca

a a a , a c a .

3.3. E cc

D ac a a b a c a a a ab a a a a a aba a ac ca a a c ca a a a ;

C a a a a a c a b a c c a c a , a a a a , a a a a a ac ; c

a ca c a a cac a c ca A D c aa a c ca ca a b c c

a a a a a a a c a a a c a a a ca a a a ca ac

c a a a ab a c a (ELIZONDO, 2004: 71) , ca b a Rca a a a c , c b a c a

c (HAIR, 2004: 280) c a a a ac a a a a c a a a ab (Q a a, 2005); a a a c a

c c a a a a c ca ca c a (E2000: 9), c L a a a ca a a a

a a .


36/58

D c c a a cac a a, a a aa Ha (HAIR, 2004), (PEREZ, C., 2004); c a a a a a

ca a SPSS, aca ca.

3.4. D c b A D c a

La a cac a c ca b caba ab a c a a caca a a b ac c aba c b a a

c c a c a a a a ab c aba ca a , a a c a a a ac c a a a

c c a a a a a ac ( ELIZONDO, 2004: c c , a c a a c

a c a . E b ca ca A D c a a a

bab a a ; a c a a ab c c a a ba c c (S a , 2002)

a c a a a ab c a a a a ab c a a a .

3.4.1. Va ab

C c a c a a c . La c a a a ab a c , a ca ca

ac c c a , c c a a c a a ab c a a a a ca a :

- Ca a c b a a ( c , 1 30 a )

- Ca a c b c ( c , a a a 30 a )

Pa a a ac , a c a a a c a aa c a , a a a ab . S 20

2008, c a a c : 30 b 2008, a a a ; a a a b c

c a a b ac c c a c (12) , c a (2) :

- Ob ac b a c a a 30 a a c (12) ; a aba a , c c a a a a a a a c a a a a a a a a c (F a , F Ga a a A a, F aca

c c a a c b c , , a c ac ca ca a c. Y a a ca a , c c

ca ac c b ac ; c : G c bJ c (1)


37/58

- C c ; b ac aba a c c , a aba a a a a

ac c , b a a ba b ac c a: G c b a a (0).

3.4.2. S cc a a ab

E a c a cc a a ab c a a a a c a a cac a c ca a c a ; c a a b

a a ab c c a , a a ab c a a a a c a cac ca a a a c a b a (Tab a 2).

Tab a 2. Va ab c a a a a c

Información Variable Seleccionada Clasificacion1 Clasificacion2 Clasificacion3

Del Proyecto

Flujo Cuantitativas Métrica Escala

Actividad Cualitativas Métrica Nominal

Plazo Cuantitativas Métrica Escala

Financiera % Endeudamiento Cuantitativas Métrica Escala

Demográfica

Edad Cuantitativas Métrica Escala

Estado civil Cualitativas No Métrica Nominal

Sexo Cualitativas No Métrica Nominal

Vivienda Cualitativas No Métrica Nominal

De la ObligacióncrediticiaDesembolsado Cuantitativas Métrica Escala

% cuota pagada Cuantitativas Métrica EscalaFuente: Elaboración propia

La a ab ca c a a a a a c a (6):

X1 % c a a a a

X2 % E a

X3 D b a

X4 E a

X5 FX6 P a

3.4.3. Ta a a

E a a a a 2.347 ca , ac a a ab c a a a c a a a b a c a, a c c a a


38/58

20 ca a ab (HAIR, 2004: 263) a a a ac a a 391:1; a c a a c a a a ( ac a ac )

La c a a a a ac ac c a a ca (HAIR, 2004: 263); c a a a a a a a a a

(75 25) ac a a a a ca a. E a cc a a a ca a a (Tab a 3):

Tab a 3. Ta a a a. A D c a

Estimación Grupos % Cantidad

1771

Administrativo

(30dias vencido)

39,2% 695

2347

Administrativo(30 diasvencido)

39,2% 919 Validación Grupos % Cantidad

Fuente: Elaboración Propia

576

Administrativo(30dias vencido)

38,9% 224

3.4.4. S A D c a

L c a a a b a c c a a aa a a a ab a c a c a

c c a a a a (HAIR, 2004:264)

- D b c a

S a a c a a ab a a a a b c a a ab . P a a c c a a (6) a ab ca ca a

, c a b a ; a ca a b a a c a c a

. P a c a (CABA AS, 2002) b acc a a a a a a a . E ca


39/58

a c a, a a a ac , a a ab c a c a a a a c c a a a a a a a a ca, b a

a a .

- P ba a c a

E a ba a a a a a a a c c a a a H a a a a c a a a . S a a a a a a c c a a a a a ab a .

La ba M B (Tab a 4), c a a a a c c a a a ; a a c c , a b 0.010, a < 0,05, c a aa a a a c c a a a .

Tab a 4. R a a ba M B

M de Box 6,585F Aprox. 6,581

gl1 1gl2 8279304,670

Sig. ,010F : V Aca ca S a SPSS 18.

S c a c c c , a a , a a b c ca a a a c c a a a a c a a c a.

3.4.5. C c A D c a :

E a a a c a c (6) a ab , a a

aca ca SPSS a a (3) a ab , a a ca

c c a a a a (Tab a 5):

D = 0,744Z + ,533Z a +0,257Z%c a a a a

D Z ca a cac a a ab a. E a a a a a cac ca a a a a cac a a ab

a c c a a a a a a

a c c a a a ab a a .


40/58

Tab a 5. C c E a a a D La F c D c a Ca ca

Función

1(x6)Flujo ,744(x7)Plazo ,533(x9)% cuota pagada ,257

F : V Aca ca S a SPSS 18.

Q a a a a c b a a ab c a c a a a a , c a a a ab ca c a a

c a a c a c ca c a; b a c a c a a a a

a a a 50% c a (I ac 4) c b c

c a a a a a a c a, c a a c a ca ba c c c , a c c a a

a b a a ac a a a a c a c a; a c a A a E

(E , 2004) c c a a a c a a ac a a, a a a ac , a a ab ca ,

c a a c a c c a

I ac 4. H a a D La Va ab % D C a Pa a a


3.4.6. A D A D c a a N T aba

La a ac c a b a c c a a

z j1 ab c c c a a ca ac ca ba c , a c a a a ab

ac c c .


41/58

La ac c c a a a L a a a ab a a c a a c a a a .

S ba , a a L a a a (ESTEVE, 2007).

3.5. M R L ca

3.5.1. E c a

Pa a a ca a ab a a b c a a a a a a (GUISANDE, 2006 :150);

c a b a a a ab ca ca , a a aa ab a a a c a .

(X1) % C a a a a( 2)% E a(X3) D b(X4) E a(X5) F(X6) P a(X7) S(X8) Ac a( 9)V a( 10)E a C

R a a C a a a a ab (Tab a 6), c cc a 15 c b a b :

Tab a 6. A C a a

( X 1 ) % C u o

t a

p a g a

d a

( x 2 ) %

E n d e u d a m

i e n t o

( X 3 )

D e s e m b o l s o

( X 4 ) E d a d

( X 5 ) F l u j o

( X 6 ) P l a z o

( X 7 ) S e x o

( X 8 ) A c t i v i d a d

( x 9 ) V i v i e n

d a

( x 1 0 ) E s t a d o

C i v i l

1 6,578 1,000 ,006 ,000 ,003 ,002 ,006 ,003 ,004 ,003 ,003 ,0032 1,004 2,559 ,002 ,962 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,007 ,000 ,000 ,0003 ,832 2,811 ,019 ,007 ,000 ,000 ,003 ,002 ,893 ,000 ,000 ,0024 ,549 3,462 ,475 ,007 ,003 ,001 ,093 ,026 ,030 ,031 ,001 ,0035 ,327 4,486 ,009 ,003 ,004 ,014 ,737 ,012 ,012 ,073 ,023 ,0176 ,286 4,798 ,326 ,012 ,111 ,000 ,114 ,183 ,003 ,087 ,000 ,0037 ,148 6,669 ,045 ,002 ,440 ,001 ,016 ,038 ,037 ,042 ,001 ,5178 ,130 7,114 ,084 ,007 ,200 ,007 ,021 ,051 ,000 ,032 ,513 ,2319 ,080 9,054 ,032 ,000 ,167 ,018 ,000 ,684 ,014 ,657 ,196 ,150

10 ,066 9,953 ,004 ,000 ,071 ,957 ,009 ,001 ,001 ,074 ,263 ,073

Proporciones de la varianza

D i m

e n s i ó n

A u t o v a l o r e s

Í n d i c e

d e c o n d

i c i ó n

F : V Aca ca S a SPSS 18.8


42/58

3.5.2. S cc a a ab

La a c a ab a a ab c ac ca; c a ab : c a a a c a a a ,

ca aba a a a a ab a a a a ; c a ab c a a ab a (Tab a 7):

Tab a 7. Va ab ca ca a a c a R L

Ac a

0 A a a , F , H a, O1 Ga a a

2 Ca a Pa a, Ba a , P a , F a , Ma ac , M aPa a a, T a b , Uc a

3 Ca

4 A , C b a H a, H a a , a , Pa a, T a , Y ca,A , A , F , Ma , F a5 A c a, C c Ac c a, P ca P c6 A aca , Caca

E a c

0 S

1 Ca a , U L b2 D c a , V3 NE

V a0 A , P L a a1 A a a a E a, Fa a , P a2 NE

E ab ac a

S a SPSS, a c a a a ab aca a a c a c c ca c a (P< 0.05): b

a , % a ( ab a).


43/58

Tab a 8. S cc Va ab Pa a C M R L

Va ab P ac S .S ca c aX1%C aPa a a1 24,782 1 ,000 SI

5F 71,108 1 ,000 SI6P a 96,191 1 ,000 SI8Ac a 265,847 6 ,000 SI8Ac a (1) 9,120 1 ,003 SI8Ac a (2) 116,018 1 ,000 SI8Ac a (3) 170,806 1 ,000 SI8Ac a (4) 51,087 1 ,000 SI8Ac a (5) 20,591 1 ,000 SI8Ac a (6) ,001 1 ,971 NO

9V a 18,254 2 ,000 SI9V a(1) 18,247 1 ,000 SI9V a(2) 12,518 1 ,000 SI10E a C 91,477 3 ,000 SI10E a C (1) 89,611 1 ,000 SI10E a C (2) ,131 1 , 110E a C (3) 39,833 1 ,000 SI

03 ,0 3 1 , 14 2,113 1 ,14

2, 4 1 ,02 3,022 1 ,0 2


C a c a (6) a ab a , c a a a ab : a (0,718>

0,05). La a ab c a a a , : AcP a , F , % C a Pa a a.

3.5.3. I ac R a

S c c a c a a SPSS, cc a c Wa aca a ; a c a a b a a (Tab a 9).

E ca a 2 L a c a a , a a , c a a Na

a 4 ca 25,7 % a a ab a a :


44/58

Tab a 9. R M

Pa2 a

R c a a C

S

R c a a

Na1 2094,702 ,145 ,1972 2048,652 ,167 ,2263 2021,580 ,180 ,2444 2000,530 ,189 ,257F : V Aca ca S a SPSS 18.

E c a a c a (Tab a 10), a E (B) , ( a a a a ) a c c a b a c a c c b c , a a b a c a; c a a c a

ac . P a a a c c a ca , a c a a ac a 3 ca a c a ac , c a 1.3 c a c c a b a a c b a a , a a c c a a ab .

Tab a 10. Va ab a Ec ac

Va abB E.T. Wa S . E (B)

I.C. 95% a a EXP(B)I S

X1%C aPa a a1 1,125 ,247 20,705 1 ,000 ,325 ,200 ,527

5F ,000 ,000 37,639 1 ,000 1,000 1,000 1,0006P a ,022 ,005 21,603 1 ,000 ,979 ,970 ,9888Ac a 159,680 6 ,000

8Ac a (1) 1,831 ,832 4,843 1 ,028 ,160 ,031 ,8188Ac a (2) ,615 ,356 2,986 1 ,084 ,541 ,269 1,0868Ac a (3) ,324 ,374 ,748 1 ,387 1,383 ,664 2,8808Ac a (4) 2,276 ,449 25,728 1 ,000 ,103 ,043 ,2478Ac a (5) ,312 ,426 ,536 1 ,464 ,732 ,318 1,6878Ac a (6) ,311 ,401 ,601 1 ,438 ,733 ,334 1,608

C a 1,388 ,442 9,880 1 ,002 4,007


E a ca c a a a % c a a a a, F

Ca a, a (2 ,


45/58

Tab a 11. Tab a c a cac

Observado

Pronosticado

Clasificación Validación

Dependiente

Porcentajecorrecto

Dependiente

PorcentajecorrectoAdministrativo Jurídico Administrativo Jurídico

Administrativo 839 237 78,0 278 74 79,0

Jurídico 254 441 63,5 79 145 64,7

Porcentaje global 72,3 73,4

F : V Aca ca S a SPSS 18

P a c c a c ac bab a a ca a a c c b c a a:

∏ += %Act(6)*0,311-%Act(5)*0,312-%Act(4)*2,276-%Act(3)*0,324-%Act(2)*0,615-%Act(1)*1,831-*Pla0,022-*Flu,000+%CuPa*1,125+1,38811

)1(e

3.5.4. A a R L a N T aba

La a ab ac a c a cac c a . S b a a a c c a a ba a , ac a a a c a a b a a c

ac a ; c ca c Ma ac a a 2005 b . Ec a a c a c a c a c ca, c c a acac a a a , ba c , a a c c a ac

c a ca ca c a a b aba aa c a c ca; a ca a a a a b a a a

. S ba a c a a ac a a ca a c c c a a a ac a c a

a a a a a a ab c a c a a a a, a c ac a c ac c a a a

c a c ca ac ca a , c c

c a a ca b a bab a c a ac c a .

E ca ba c b c c ca a c a a, a c c b a , b c a c b

c c a a a a a c c c a ac c c , ca a c a a a. E a ca c a c

a a c a a a c a .


46/58

La a ab a c a c a ac a a a a , a b ca b a ac a c ac a c

ca c a , a c a a a a ca a; c c a a ac a a

a c a a a c a a a a ; a ca c a a a a a a ca a aba c ca ca a

E c c a b a c c a ac (ca a c , b ac , ca a a a ca c a , c.) T

a c a a a a a a c a c a ac a c a .

La a ab c a a a aba A D cc a a ca a a a c a c c c

a a c a c a a b a E a A , c a c c c c ac a a a c a a c a .

R ; E ba c ac a ca a a ac c a c ac ac ; c a ba a ba, c b a b a

a a a c a c . C a ba c aba ca a, a c ca , c a a c a a

ca a a a c ac c ac c b a , c ab a a a a cab ,

a . E a a b a ab a a a aa a cab a a b a a c a a a

ac a a c , ac a a c c , a c a , a c a c ac , a a a a , a ca ac ac , a c c a ac c a a ba c c , a a a b a . P c a

c a a , a a a a c ca a ca ac c , c , ac a a

cc ; c ab b a ca a a c c c a c a a a

ac a a c .


47/58

4. CONCLUSIONES

P a a a c ca c a a ab ; a b , a c a

ca ca a a , a c a a a c c a a c a c a .

L a ca ac a c a; c c c a a a a c c a a c ac bab

a c a (3) a ab , c ac a a a a c cac c c . E a c ac a a ca

c c a a ca a ab a c c .

E A c a c a a a a ab c a bacc c c a a ca , c cc .

ca a a a a a a a c ; a ca c a a ab a a c a a ac

a a a a ca c c , a a ca cac c a acc c a aba .

Pa a a c a c c c b a a c c , a ac a a a ac c a

a c cc a a c a c c a a a a a c a a b a b c ,

b c c , b ab a b a aca a c c c .

N c c c a c a a a ac ca a c a ab a a a a c c a . E ca c c a c a a a a c a c

a a a a a a ac ca c a a ac c ca . Y c a c a a ab a a

c ca a ac a , a a ca a c aa c a . E a c cc ac ca c a a ab a a aca a

Pa a a a a c a , ONG, C a a a c a c c a , a ba a a c . E a a a b ac c a a

a b a . S a a c a a a


48/58

a c a, c a c c b a a a a b a c ac a ab b ac

a c a a a c c , a c c ac a c b , a c ca a a a a c a a.

E a ac a a a , a c a a a a aba c b a a a a a a a ac

c c , a b a a a , a a , c c a a c ac b c ca a ac c c

a c ca c c a c a a .


49/58

5. RECOMENDACIONES

U a a a a , c a c ca , ac a a ac a ac ca a ab a

a a a a a ca a ; a ca .

L a b c ac c c c ba a a c a c , b c a a b a

a ab c ca b c c c c a a c c a cc c c , c , c a , a a b a ab ac c : a a

, a a ca b , , ac , PIB; a a b a a ac a a c a a c a , a a

c .

La a b c ac a c c , a a a a a a a a a

c c b , ac a c c a a a , b , c c a ca c a ca

c , c a c a a c c a a a aac a a a c a a ca ac a

a a a ab a aca a.

La ba a a a c a a a c c a a c c , ac b ca a ca a aca a a ca ca a ca ; ba c a a

c a ca c c b a c ab a c ccb c . S a a ca a a a a c a c ca a

ca cac a c ca c a ca cac a a ba aba c a a a a a .


50/58

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A. .

CARO J.; A : AC C . : C .Sa a C N b 2003. [E a]. [V a c b 2008].

. a ca. / c a c /D M c a a . .

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OSSA N.; A : . : G D I ac E F a a Ba ca EAFIT. C b a Ma

2004: [E a]. [V a c b 2008].


51/58

:// . a . .c /NR/ /B5F43951 2EB6 4431 A803D79FB8A8B59A/0/D c _17_P c _ _S c _F a c . .

CATULLO, J.; . E :F a a R a . A a N b 2006. [E a]. [V a c b 200D b I :// . a. .a / / a / / 5. .

THANH, T. ; A ' ; E : IRFA, I a aR F a c A a . 16 (2007) . 471 495. [E a]. [V a b 2009]

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BALCAEN, S. ; 35 : ; : T B Acc R . 38 (2006) 63

93. [E a]. [V a b 2009]. :// . .c / ca /ba .

SPOGNARDI, M.; Ca a C c a U a a Ta a C R aT a a a a T L c c a Ec a. Oc b 2002 . 1 82, UNac a La P a a. [E a]. [V a b 2009].

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WENNER, M.; C A , A B . E : T M c a c a a . EEUU. Ma 2007 . 36. [E

a]. [V a c b 2008].:// . c a c a a . /c /a c / a /41522.

QUINTANA, M.; A A . C . E : A c a D a U a La R a. E a a 2005 25. [E a]. [V a c b

2008]. :// a . a. / /a c ?c =1281700.

FLOREZ, R.; A . . E : A c a D a

U a L . E a a F b 2007 21. [E a]. [V a c b 2008].:// a . a. / /a c ?c =2336244.

M. DOUMPOS; K. K ; G. Ba a ; C. Z ; C : A . E : T J a

E S . A 2002, . 392 412. [V a c b 2008].:// a . c. /a/ / / 138 2002 2 392 412. .

THANH, T ; A ' ; E : IRFA,I a a R F a c A a . 16 (2007) . 471 495. [E a]. [V a

b 2009]. :// . c c c .c .


52/58

BALCAEN, S ; 35 a b a : a a ca a a b ; E : T B Acc R

(2006) 63 93. [E a]. [V a b 2009]. :// . .c / ca /ba .

RESTREPO DE ARANGO, MAR A IN S.(2003) I c a, D c a a Ca a C ac Fa a A a, COMFAMA, a P c ca a a

c a a , c ca a A c ac Ba ca a. Ca a a I a , C b a, a13 14 2003. :// .c a a.c /c /b /2254/ c12.

CABA A, E. M.; (2002). E P c W T a L C a , B A c ac Ma ca V a a, V . 9, N . 2, 2002 , . 181 192

:// a . a. / /a c ?c =1019995

ELIZONDO, A.; ALTMAN, E. (2004) M c a c ; a LIM

M c

ESTEVE, E. M.;(2007) U c c ba a c c aa cac Ba a a a c ba ca D c : XX Ca a AEDEM, V . 2, 2007 (C cac ), a . 52A c ac E a D cc Ec a E a. C Nac a (20. 2006. Pa a Ma ca)

:// a . a. / /a c ?c =2499466

SPOGNARDI, Ma c ; Ca a C c a U a a Ta a C RE T a a a a T L c c a Ec a. Oc b 2002 . 1 82,U a Nac a La P a a. [E a]. [V a b 2009].

:// . c . c . . .a .

SALVADOR, M; I cc a A M a a . 2000. [ a]. [V a b2009]. :// .5ca .c / cc /a a .

LACALLE, M; L c c : a c a c a a c c aE 2007. [ a]. [V a a 2010].

:// . . /c a _07/ / _ aca / _ aca _2.

I b a a A ca La a Ca b . [ a]. [V a a

2010]. :// . . /c a _07/ / _ aca / _ aca _2.GRUPOS DE INVESTIGACION EN MICROFINANZAS

://a .a . a . / a / a a c /b a. T O S a U. . , A c a , E a , a D Ec c c

A a G Ec a (U a L A ); Ma Sc aEc a A c a (I a S a U , EE.UU.). D c E D a


53/58

(CENDES U a C a V a). P T a a Fac a CEc ca S c a (U a L A ); a C I ac A a a a (CIAAL), U a L A . D cc PN c La L a, E c G L ca H a , 2 , CIAAL. M a 5101, VT a : (57) (74) 2401031; a : a @ a.

G I ac F a a Ba ca a D M c a a D a a DF a a E c a D A ac U a Ea


54/58

ANEXO 1 DESCRIPCION DE 44 VARIABLES INICIALMENTE CONSIDERADAS

# Va ab

1 Acc caVa ab c a a a, a a a b a c c a

c , ac b a b a a a c c a ca : A , M , N E .

2 Ac a Va ab c a a a, Ac a c a, b c aa c a a c a a.

3 A c caVa ab c a a a, a a c c

a a a ac a c a, ac b a, ba c c , a c a c a ca : B a, R a , M

4 A aI

Va ab c a a a, P c a a

a a bac c , a a : a a c c (SV), c (TV).

5 Ba aa a a

Va ab c a a a, R a b a a: a a a c Ba c .

6 D b a

Va ab c a a a, Va c a ; 919 31 Ma 2008, ab c a a c c a c c c c a c

a a c a ( a a a ca) 25 a a a

7 D a cVa ab c a a a, L a c c a

c c , a a c , 30 b2008. (a a a c a a ab

8 E a E a c a a a bac .

9 E cac

Va ab c a a a, cac , a c c , c a ca a :. P a a, Bac a

T c c U a , E c a ac P a

10 E aBa cVa ab c a a a, a a c

a , a c a c .

11 E aVa ab c a a a, a a c a

a ba c , c a c ac c a a .

12 E a CVa ab c a a a, a c c a a c a .

13 E c aac a

Va ab c a a a, a c a c a a ac a ac b a a a c c , ( / ).


55/58

# Va ab

14

E c a

c c Ba c

Va ab c a a a, ca c a

a c a a , ( / ).

15FAG (F

A c a Ga a a

Va ab c a a a, a a a a a c a c a , c ca ac a c b a

b ac (0%, 80% 100%), b a a a c a

16 F c abF c a c a b ac c c a.

17 F c a I cM aF c a c a a b ac .

18 F

Va ab c a a a, a a b ac b a a a a c , a a a

c a , , a ac a a ac a ca a b ac

.

19F

a a aVa ab c a a a, c acc a

a a , a c b a a ac( / ).

20 Ga a aVa ab c a a a, a c c a a acc a c c . (Fa /H ca/a a a/ a)

21 G ac aVa ab c a a a, ac a, a a c

b a a ca a , c a a.

22 I a c a

Va ab c a a a, a a a c ca c a c a c a a

c a ca : N a, M a, D a a a.

23 N C aPac a aVa ab c a a a, a a ac

a b ac .

24 N C aPa a aVa ab c a a a, c a a a a a 30 b2008.

25N

Ob acCOBIS

C a a Ba c , a a ca a ac c

26 O c aVa ab c a a a, a c a a c a b c ,

b c .

27 P c aVa ab c a a a, c a a ca a aa a a : a a c (AV), c (SV) (TV).


56/58

# Va ab

28 P aVa ab c a a a, a a a ca a a

29P b a

a a

Va ab c a a a, a c a a c a a b ac a a a a ,

, ( / ).

30 P c cVa ab c a a a, E a ca c c c

b a ca a.

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b 2008.32 S S c a .

33 T c a

Va ab b a, a c a a, c c a a a a ac

c a, c a ca : A , M , Ba .

34 T a IVa ab c a a a, I b a b ac ca a, a a .

35 U a M aVa ab c a a a, c a a c

a c a, a a b ac ca a.

36 U aF a c a aVa ab c a a a, a a c a a c c

a .

37 Va A baVa ab c a a a, a a ba a a ba ca a.

38 Va EVa ab c a a a, b a b ac ca a.

39 Va P c Va ab c a a a, a a c a a a .

40 Va S c aVa c a a a a c a c .

41 V aVa ab c a a a, a a ca a c a a (A , P L a a , A a a a E a, Fa a , P a

42 Z aVa ab c a a a, a ca a a a acac a a b c ca a a ba ca

c a .

43 % c a a a aVa ab c a a a, a b :

a a a / c a ac a a .

44 %E a

Va ab c a a a, a b : a /acac a a ac a a c a

c a a c .

E ab ac a


57/58

ANEXO 2 ARGUMENTO DE LA EXCLUSION DE 33 VARIABLES

# Va ab E c a A a c

1 Acc caVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .

2 A c caVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .

3 A a IVa ab a , a a a ac a c

a c , a a a c a a.

4 Ba a a a a Va ab a , a c a a % a .

5 E cac Va ab I a a, c a a a a a a a .

6 E a Ba c Va ab a , a a c a a % a .

7 E a Va ab a , a a c a a % a .

8 E c a ac aVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .

9 E c a c c Ba cVa ab I a a, c a a a a a

a a .

10 FAG(F A c a Ga a aVa ab a a, 97% a a b ac c

a a a a c a a a a.11 F c a b Va ab I a a12 F c a I c M a Va ab a , c a : a c .

13 F a a aVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .

14 Ga a aVa ab a a, 97% a a b ac c

a a a a c a a a c a FAG.

15 G ac a

Va ab I a a, ac a, a , a b a 2005, 2006, 2007, c a a

c a a a a , a bc a ac .

16 I a c aVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .


58/58

# Va ab E c a A a c

17 N C a Pac a a Va ab a , a a a b a c a: % c a a18 N C a Pa a a Va ab a , a a a b a c a: % c a a

19 N Ob acCOBISVa ab a a, c c a a a

a a ca a ac c c a.

20 O c a Va ab a a, a b cac a c c .

21 P c aVa ab a , a a a ac a c

a c , a a a c a a.

22 P b a

a a

Va ab c ab , c b a, ac a a c , ca

a .23 P c c Va ab a , c ca a.

24 Sa C Va ab a a, ca a ac a a acc a c 30 b 2008.

25 T c aVa ab c ab , c b a, a

c a a c , caa .

26 T a I Va ab a , c ca a.27 U a M a Va ab a , c ca a.28 U a F a c a a Va ab a , c ca a.

29 Va a ba Va ab a , ca a b aac .30 Va E Va ab a , c ca a.31 Va P c Va ab a , c ca a.32 Va S c a Va ab a , c ca a.

33 Z a Va ab I a a, a b cac c c .E ab ac a

caracterización de las variables deterinantes del riesgo en el microcredito rural

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