Taller # 7

Caculo del MTBF

CalcularCalcular el MTBF y la rata de falla

Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.

Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.

Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 26, 25, 22, 7 en dias.

Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26’670.000 y el costos del mantto preventivo es de $ 1’590.000, cual es el tiempo óptimo para hacer el mantenimiento?.

Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

MTBF = 1

Rata de falla 1.0000

Tiempo Exponencial1 #NAME?2 0.143 0.054 0.025 0.016 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.00

10 0.0011 0.0012 0.0013 0.0014 0.0015 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0042 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0048 0.0049 0.0050 0.0051 0.0052 0.0053 0.0054 0.0055 0.0056 0.0057 0.0058 0.0059 0.0060 0.0061 0.0062 0.0063 0.0064 0.0065 0.0066 0.0067 0.0068 0.00

69 0.0070 0.0071 0.0072 0.0073 0.0074 0.0075 0.0076 0.0077 0.0078 0.0079 0.0080 0.0081 0.0082 0.0083 0.0084 0.0085 0.0086 0.0087 0.0088 0.0089 0.0090 0.0091 0.0092 0.0093 0.0094 0.0095 0.0096 0.0097 0.0098 0.0099 0.00100 0.00

Simulación por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial

A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias

landa = 1/137 = 0.0073Landa= 0.0037

s Aleatorio Exponencial1 0.335 295.442 0.842 46.363 0.984 4.464 0.079 685.505 0.363 274.116 0.227 400.367 0.436 224.578 0.418 235.769 0.664 110.58

10 0.071 715.1811 0.776 68.5912 0.984 4.4513 0.957 11.9014 0.562 155.5815 0.939 16.9616 0.919 22.7217 0.004 1525.9218 0.219 410.2519 0.888 31.9920 0.026 988.8321 0.924 21.4322 0.560 156.6523 0.687 101.4024 0.251 373.7325 0.105 608.9426 0.518 177.6727 0.548 162.7828 0.109 599.4029 0.582 146.4230 0.995 1.3031 0.503 185.6232 0.695 98.3933 0.620 129.3834 0.529 172.0135 0.260 363.5636 0.476 200.4437 0.424 231.7838 0.847 44.8839 0.740 81.2740 0.480 198.4641 0.827 51.2842 0.636 122.2343 0.984 4.2944 0.204 429.5645 0.753 76.8546 0.236 389.7147 0.077 693.4148 0.227 400.2049 0.729 85.6050 0.647 117.8351 0.486 195.0252 0.947 14.8453 0.615 131.5454 0.765 72.5355 0.874 36.4456 0.233 393.8057 0.314 313.0658 0.602 137.0959 0.240 385.4760 0.571 151.5261 0.170 479.5462 0.371 268.1163 0.804 58.9264 0.546 163.5565 0.611 133.3566 0.765 72.3067 0.314 313.1068 0.175 470.4069 0.846 45.0870 0.883 33.5071 0.532 170.4972 0.194 443.89

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 17000.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

Exponencial

Exponencial

X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}Aleatorios

s Aleatorio Exponencial

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 17000.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

Exponencial

Exponencial

73 0.230 397.3174 0.057 774.9975 0.745 79.6076 0.429 228.6377 0.435 225.2278 0.596 139.7979 0.093 641.4480 0.527 173.3281 0.325 303.4382 0.727 86.0683 0.377 263.7584 0.540 166.4685 0.504 184.9386 0.982 4.8387 0.301 324.5488 0.037 894.5389 0.546 163.3190 0.427 230.2791 0.626 126.4392 0.440 221.9093 0.192 446.3594 0.174 473.2495 0.022 1031.5196 0.371 268.1797 0.711 92.0798 0.061 755.2499 0.789 64.03100 0.739 81.78Prob 0.6047490007533

0.72720986284260.0201957365405

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 17000.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

Exponencial

Exponencial

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD TIEMPO RELIABILITY

MTBF (dias)= 365.00 0 1.0000 .0000

Rata de falla = 0.002740 40 .8962 .1038

Tiempo Probabilidad falla Reliability 80 .8032 .19680 1.0000 .0000 120 .7198 .28025 .9864 .0136 160 .6451 .3549

10 .9730 .0270 200 .5781 .421915 .9597 .0403 240 .5181 .481920 .9467 .0533 280 .4643 .535725 .9338 .0662 320 .4161 .583930 .9211 .0789 360 .3730 .627035 .9086 .0914 400 .3342 .665840 .8962 .1038 440 .2995 .7005

1,000 .0646 .9354 480 .2685 .7315Reliability Dias FFI 520 .2406 .7594

0.01 1,681 722.70 560 .2156 .78440.1 840 657.00 600 .1932 .80680.5 253 365.00 640 .1732 .82680.6 186 292.00 680 .1552 .84480.7 130 219.00 720 .1391 .86090.8 81 146.00 760 .1247 .87530.9 38 73.00 800 .1117 .8883

0.99 4 7.30 840 .1001 .8999

0.999 0 0.73 880 .0897 .9103920 .0804 .9196

CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL960 .0721 .9279

R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF) 1,000 .0646 .9354

PROBABILIDA DE FALLA

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

1,040 .0579 .9421CALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK 1,080 .0519 .9481

FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF 1,120 .0465 .95351,160 .0417 .95831,200 .0373 .96271,240 .0335 .96651,280 .0300 .9700

CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA 98%

TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA 14.6

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80% 81

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50% 253

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,000

1,040

1,080

1,120

1,160

1,200

1,240

1,280

.0000

.1000

.2000

.3000

.4000

.5000

.6000

.7000

.8000

.9000

1.0000

Confiabilidad

Horas

Re

lia

bil

ity

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,0

001,040

1,080

1,120

1,160

1,200

1,240

1,280

.0000

.1000

.2000

.3000

.4000

.5000

.6000

.7000

.8000

.9000

1.0000

Confiabilidad

Horas

Re

lia

bil

ity