r graphics output › coronavirus › 2019-ncov › downloads › covid-data … · 2021-01-25 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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National*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUpstateSUUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
500k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
500k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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●Alaska
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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American Samoa
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
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300●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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California
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
60k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
60k
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Colorado
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
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300
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Connecticut
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
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60
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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District of Columbia
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
50N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORC
ColumbiaDDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSE
JHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
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30
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50
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLKarlenLANLOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
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600
800
1k●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Florida
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
35k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
35k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Georgia
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
● ● ●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
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20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLPSIUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●● ● ●
● ●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLPSIUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●● ● ●
● ●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
Hawaii
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Idaho
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Illinois
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Indiana
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Iowa
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Kansas
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
Kentucky
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Louisiana
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Maine
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●● ●
Maryland
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●●
Massachusetts
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●● ●
● ●
●
● ●
Michigan*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●● ●
● ●
●
● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Minnesota*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Mississippi
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Missouri*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBS
Oliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Montana
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nebraska
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nevada
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
New Hampshire
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●●
New Jersey
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
New York
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
●●
North Carolina
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
North Dakota*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
Ohio*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Oklahoma
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oregon
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Pennsylvania*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Puerto Rico
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMU
Columbia−UNCCovid19SimLSHTMJHU−CSSE
JHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
PSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
Covid19SimLSHTMJHU−CSSE
KarlenLANLPSI
UCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Rhode Island
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
South Carolina
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
● ●
South Dakota*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Tennessee*
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Texas
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−25 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
Utah
Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
Kar