mexico _ estudios económicos - coface
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Ficha riesgo país de MéxicoTRANSCRIPT
21/10/2015 Mexico / Estudios Económicos Coface
http://www.coface.es/EstudiosEconomicos/Mexico 1/2
INICIO ESTUDIOS ECONÓMICOS MEXICO
STRENGTHS
Geographically close to North American marketMember of NAFTA, OECD, G20 and the PacificAllianceNew IMF credit line running until January 2017Large industrial baseWorld scale player in cement, beer,télécommunicationsSmall external debt
WEAKNESSES
Dependence on state of US economyPublic revenues low and linked with oilInfrastructure and education weaknessesHigh crime rate
SYNTHESIS
MAJOR MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2012 2013 2014(e) 2015(f)
GDP growth (%) 4.0 1.4 2.1 2.0
Inflation (yearly average) (%) 3.4 3.8 4.0 2.9
Budget balance (% GDP) 2.6 2.3 3.2 4.0
Current account balance (% GDP) 1.3 2.4 2.1 2.7
Public debt (% GDP) 43.2 46.3 50.0 51.4
(e) Estimate (f) Forecast
RISK ASSESSMENT
Towards a slowdown in 2015
The prospects for growth in the Mexican economy in 2015 have been revised downwards, having been affected bythe slowdown in local activity linked to the weak recovery in the US and lower oil prices. The negative effects of thestronger dollar on US industrial activity are also contributing to the slowdown in the Mexican manufacturing sector,which is heavily dependent on the US. Performance in the oil sector is not expected to improve because of the fall inoil prices and oil production. Moreover, the prospects for an increase in private investment expected following theopening up of the energy market seem more mixed following the disappointing results of the first phase of tenders
POPULATION
119.581 MILLION
GDP
1295.86 US$ BILLION COUNTRY RISKASSESSMENT
BUSINESSCLIMATE
A4 A4MEXICO
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21/10/2015 Mexico / Estudios Económicos Coface
http://www.coface.es/EstudiosEconomicos/Mexico 2/2
midyear. The budgetary constraints necessary to offset the decline in oil revenues as well as a possible increase ininterest rates by the central bank in keeping with the policy of the FED is likely to have an adverse impact on activity.Domestic consumption however seems to be holding up due to the progression of real wages because of a relativelylow inflation rate and in spite of the depreciation of the peso against the dollar (approximately 25% between August2014 and 2015). Moreover, the increase in migrant remittances should also help to support consumption. Budget cuts needed to compensate for falling oil revenues
In response to the 54% drop in oil revenues in January 2015 (the average negotiated price per barrel was$39.25/barrel in January 2015, compared with $90.65/barrel in January 2014), the government announced budgetcuts which will shave off $8.6 billion from the 2015 budget (i.e. 0.7% of GDP). Almost 50% of the budget cuts relate toPemex, whose budget has been slashed by $4.3 billion. The government is also expected to reduce the budgets ofother government departments and institutions. Faced with the prospect of a sustained fall in oil prices, theGovernment has already planned for additional budget cuts in 2016, estimated between 1% and 2% of GDP. Thedrop in oil income, estimated at 7.5% in 2014 and which represents a little over one third of public revenues, is partlyoffset by the gradual increase in nonoil income (+6.1%, or 46% of tax revenues in 2014). The fiscal reforms adoptedin 2014 should result in additional income for the State, estimated at 3% of GDP by 2018. The current deficit is expected to widen due to the decline in oil exports
Mexico is extremely dependent on the economic situation in the United States. Whilst most countries are seeing aslowing in their trading relations, Mexican exports are growing thanks to the upswing in the US economy. 80% of itsexports are shipped to the US and consist mainly of manufactured products, half of which are made up of importedcomponents assembled in the maquiladoras located in the north of the country, operating in sectors such as theautomobile sector. Mexico’s membership of the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Association) and its physicalproximity to its US neighbour mean it is in first place in terms of Latin American trade. Despite the growth in motorexports and agricultural products, the trade deficit should increase in 2015 due to the decline in oil exports both invalue (fall in the price of oil) and in volume (fall in production). These developments are likely to contribute to aworsening of the current account balance. The trade in services remains in deficit and the tourist revenues fromAmericans cover just half of the insurance and freight costs associated with the trade in goods. The revenue deficit isshrinking, with the repatriation of profits by foreign companies being partly offset by the profits made by Mexicancompanies operating abroad. Foreign investments, twice the size of Mexican investments abroad, make it possible tocover the current account deficit and build reserves. The 70 billion dollar Flexible Credit Line made available by theIMF for a 2 year period will also act as an additional buffer. An ambitious political agenda but a government weakened by corruption scandals
The President, Enrique Peña Nieto of the centre PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) party, in office sinceDecember 2012, has obtained approval for the constitutional amendments required for the implementation of hisambitious programme of structural reforms. The government’s success will depend however on his ability toimplement these reforms, to stimulate economic growth and to fight drug related crime. Despite the disappearance of43 students abducted by local police in the State of Guerrero (in the south east of the country) in September 2014and the various corruption scandals affecting the Government and the president's immediate family circle, the rulingparty was successful in the midyear legislative elections. The Government should continue along the path of itsreforms including the most emblematic, the energy market, which however is proving slow to materialise due to anexternal environment which is not conducive to investment in the oil sector. Last update : September 2015