MODELO DE PLANEACIN Y SIMULACIN PARA LA GESTIN SOCIAL DEL DESARROLLO

REVISIN PLAN DE ORDENAMIENTO TERRITORIALMEDELLN CIUDAD A CAMPO ABIERTO

LA PREGUNTA

Hacia donde nos dirigimos inercialmente:Crecimientos de las exportaciones del 6% anual y del consumo interno del 2.5%Incrementos de la productividad del 1% anual.Sin capacidad de innovar. En 15 aos:El desempleo superara el 20%.El Ingreso per. Capita slo alcanzara 2600 dlares anuales.

Hacia donde podramos dirigimos:Innovando a ratas del 5% anual.Incrementos de la productividad del 4% anualCon Crecimientos de las exportaciones del 10% anual y del consumo interno del 4.5% En 15 aos:El desempleo llegara al 4%El Ingreso per Cpita alcanzara 7000 dlares anuales.

EL EJE CENTRAL DEL PROCESO PROSPECTIVO: CONTRUCCION DE LA VISION DE REGIONIDH: ndice de Desarrollo HumanoICV: ndice de Calidad de Vida

CONSTRUCCIN DE LA VISIN DE REGIN:FUNCIN DEL MODELO DE SIMULACIN DINMICOEL MODELO DE SIMULACIN:

Se simulan trayectorias estableciendo indicadores claves de transformacin de la Regin para cada uno de los temas crticos.

Se disean y evaluarn los efectos de polticas pblicas y acciones de la ciudadana.

ANTECEDENTESEl Modelo de Ocupacin Territorial y la Transformacin Socioeconmica - PLANEA Y DAP-DLos Escenarios propuestos para Antioquia, Macroescenarios de Futuros Posibles PLANEAEstudio MONITOR - 1994Ejercicio Prospectivo DAP-MESUMER - SUBDIRECCIN DE PROSPECTIVA - 2004La Agenda de Innovacin y Desarrollo Cientfico y Tecnolgico para Medelln y Antioquia

ESCENARIOS DE LARGO PLAZO PARA LA ECONOMA DE ANTIOQUIA, SUS REGIONES Y EL VALLE DE ABURR 2004 - 2020-+-+EXPANSIN DE DEMANDALO INTERNO COMPENSA LO EXTERNOLO EXTERNO COMPENSA LO INTERNOINTEGRACIN SOCIAL, GESTIN PBLICA,EQUILIBRIO TERRITORIAL YTENENCIA DE LA TIERRACONTRACCION DE DEMANDADINMICA EMPRESARIAL Y DE MERCADOS INTERNOS Y EXTERNOSZona de baja probabilidadCrec. Sup al 6%Zona de alta probabilidadCrec. Entre el 3.1 y 4.9%

POSICIN ACTUALPOSICIN OBJETIVOARRIEROS SOMOSCINCO PARA EL PESOLA MEJOR ESQUINACON EL MISMO CARRIELZona de muy baja probabilidadCrec. Inf a 3 %

ESCENARIOS DE LARGO PLAZO PARA LA ECONOMA DE ANTIOQUIA, SUS REGIONES Y EL VALLE DE ABURR 2004 - 2020

HACIA UN NUEVO MODELO DE OCUPACIN TERRITORIALModelo actualModelo propuestoFuente: PLANEA

Caractersticas de las variablesLocalizacin del desarrollo en el medio naturalSistema UrbanoVnculosPosicin en los flujos nacionales e Internacio-nales

Una ciudad o una subregin atrae poblacin siempre y cuando ofrezca a sus habitantes seguridad ciudadana, los servicios pblicos necesarios, educacin, empleo, vivienda y un nivel de ingreso adecuado. Para el Modelo desarrollado el factor de atractividad se calcula con base en el promedio ponderado de estas 7 variables, donde cada una tiene un peso equivalente a la importancia que tiene para el Valle de Aburr dicha variable para poder atraer o no poblacin.

FACTOR DE ATRACTIVIDAD

CALDASRiqueza en Biodiversidad ALTA CONCENTRACION DE ASENTAMIENTOS EN LA HERRADURA ANDINA.

ALTAS DIFERENCIAS POBLACIONALES Valle de Aburr (10 municipios)2.716.000 Eje Urab (4 municipios) 167.000 Altiplano del Oriente 156.000 CENTROS MAS DINAMICOS LOCALIZADOS EN EL TROPICO Y CON OPORTUNIDADES EN RELACION CON CENTROS URBANOS DE OTROS DEPARTAMENTOS.

LOCALIZACIN Y CARACTERSTICAS DE LOS CENTROS URBANOS

ESTRUCTURA GENERAL DEL MODELO DE GESTINSOCIAL DEL DESARROLLO

ESCENARIOS Y DINAMICAS

ESCENARIOS 2010

2010VARIABLES2004ETERNA CASI PRIMAVERASLO TCITASDE PLATAPUROS COLOMBIAMODASLA FERIA DE LAS FLORESEXGENAS INDICADORES DE TRAYECTORIA:Crecimiento en las Exportaciones6%6%9%12%Crecimiento en la Demanda Interna2.50%2.5%3.50%4.5%Incremento de la Productividad1%3%3%4%Innovacin0%0%2%5%Cambio Tecnolgico1%2%2%3% - 4%RESULTADOS VARIABLES DE ECONOMA:Exportaciones anuales US$ (miles de millones)1,3341,8961,8132,2722,790PIB per cpita US$2,4162,8252,7283,3953,687CREC PIB3.62%2.88%6.48%11.62% VARIABLES DE CALIDAD DE VIDA:GINI0.500.470.480.450.44IDH78.2779.3379.0880.3880.82Desempleo14%12%18%7%7%

ESCENARIOS 2020

TASA DE DESEMPLEO

Grfico4

0.140.140.140.14

0.130.130.130.13

0.140.130.120.13

0.150.130.10.1

0.160.120.090.1

0.170.120.080.09

0.180.120.070.07

0.190.110.050.04

0.190.110.030

0.20.110.030

0.210.10.030

0.210.10.030

0.210.10.040

0.210.090.050.01

0.220.090.060.03

0.220.080.060.04

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

AO

TASA DE DESEMPLEO

MOVILIDAD

VIAJES DIARIOS

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULAR

20041,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.42

20051,329,629.18214,318.43144,029.84529,454.291,334,128.99212,170.35143,442.97523,885.391,329,670.55214,298.75144,024.45529,403.301,329,670.55214,298.75144,024.45529,403.30

20061,331,704.14223,692.13147,494.19552,202.891,338,199.95220,182.60146,646.27544,340.981,327,374.49226,093.46148,059.71557,393.691,327,120.12226,234.03148,092.94557,697.44

20071,332,100.51234,132.70151,025.55575,522.711,341,363.52229,055.62149,814.26564,561.481,305,508.58248,316.40154,516.71609,429.881,300,653.73250,945.33155,156.96616,506.01

20081,330,683.34244,864.69154,626.27599,391.641,343,516.40237,974.64152,943.50584,548.911,270,332.18279,626.54162,637.49684,754.551,261,985.49284,394.03163,762.52696,044.19

20091,328,323.39255,900.70158,338.06628,703.941,345,558.63246,776.84156,069.65604,253.581,232,619.68309,866.00167,924.45777,313.421,214,029.76319,479.53168,634.56809,733.35

20101,325,046.88268,654.87162,170.84659,194.331,347,546.30255,466.80159,195.82626,765.421,213,165.67329,481.68170,750.09840,718.201,162,873.25354,608.11173,215.64937,253.30

20111,320,842.60281,692.12166,133.76690,333.251,349,498.75264,644.39162,323.59649,893.311,190,078.18350,507.86173,098.48916,720.121,109,540.36389,441.58185,088.751,079,658.82

20121,315,761.09295,007.93170,238.97722,107.431,351,497.64274,170.34165,456.77672,718.341,156,901.47376,015.35181,331.501,012,976.171,024,274.44437,565.30200,816.821,305,783.64

20131,312,468.41306,840.14173,285.66756,137.581,353,607.47283,576.60168,598.39695,250.731,133,466.31396,385.08188,516.131,097,490.03954,747.12477,067.55212,758.391,496,916.56

20141,309,640.77318,231.77175,831.05791,856.501,355,859.00292,869.11171,750.07717,505.221,097,033.96422,482.05197,474.291,211,229.55868,309.66522,824.97224,320.221,719,688.06

20151,306,441.32329,860.34178,313.78828,308.591,358,413.37302,046.75174,918.21739,481.441,064,271.50446,527.98205,588.561,323,853.72790,973.88564,235.42231,365.151,920,301.93

20161,302,839.83341,730.84180,721.65865,511.251,361,650.53310,848.62177,922.97761,236.021,035,438.79468,584.92212,842.731,426,275.14730,043.47598,691.78234,331.592,085,553.79

20171,298,721.74353,846.83183,034.20903,489.571,366,692.80318,478.88180,189.47784,157.261,003,861.65491,645.86220,094.261,533,707.98664,737.31634,938.50233,786.572,259,801.70

20181,294,032.10366,211.41185,234.11945,639.231,371,907.42326,051.34182,431.57806,858.33980,176.19511,097.89226,060.861,622,796.88611,557.82666,237.54230,048.052,408,921.89

20191,288,681.47378,826.20187,299.28990,196.931,377,215.81333,569.71184,645.11829,363.54929,423.71541,941.15234,200.841,769,587.50523,100.65713,148.90225,325.482,637,132.99

1,377,216

333,570

184,645

829,364

REQUERIDOS SEGN OCUPACIN Y VIAJES

BASE

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARCARGA

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.556,697.4520,004.1588,242.3824,740.12

4,932.246,990.3820,485.3092,033.8225,653.83

4,933.717,316.6520,975.7795,920.4526,590.32

4,928.467,652.0221,475.8799,898.6127,563.42

4,919.727,996.9021,991.40104,783.9928,574.62

4,907.588,395.4622,523.73109,865.7229,625.48

4,892.018,802.8823,074.13115,055.5430,717.63

4,873.199,219.0023,644.30120,351.2431,852.76

4,860.999,588.7524,067.45126,022.9333,032.63

4,850.529,944.7424,420.98131,976.0834,259.09

4,838.6710,308.1424,765.80138,051.4335,534.044,7735,1013,4421,937

4,825.3310,679.0925,100.23144,251.8836,859.4911,83810,42416,93622,286

4,810.0811,057.7125,421.42150,581.5938,237.5226,01425,64532,52831,295

4,792.7111,444.1125,726.96157,606.5439,670.30165,033138,227294,931439,522

4,772.8911,838.3226,013.79165,032.8241,160.0941,16035,94966,722110,711

DEGRADATIVO

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,941.226,630.3219,922.6387,314.2324,554.17

4,956.306,880.7120,367.5490,723.5025,368.12

4,968.017,157.9920,807.5494,093.5826,182.02

4,975.997,436.7121,242.1597,424.8226,995.94

4,983.557,711.7821,676.34100,708.9327,809.85

4,990.917,983.3422,110.53104,460.9028,623.76

4,998.148,270.1422,544.94108,315.5529,437.68

5,005.558,567.8222,980.11112,119.7230,251.59

5,013.368,861.7723,416.44115,875.1231,065.50

5,021.709,152.1623,854.18119,584.2031,879.42

5,031.169,438.9624,294.20123,246.9132,693.33

5,043.159,714.0224,711.52126,872.6733,507.25

5,061.839,952.4725,026.32130,692.8834,321.16

5,081.1410,189.1025,337.72134,476.3935,135.07

5,100.8010,424.0525,645.15138,227.2635,948.99

ALTO

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.716,696.8420,003.4088,233.8824,738.41

4,916.207,065.4220,563.8592,898.9525,832.72

4,835.227,759.8921,460.65101,571.6527,711.12

4,704.938,738.3322,588.54114,125.7630,179.29

4,565.269,683.3123,322.84129,552.2433,218.25

4,493.2110,296.3023,715.29140,119.7035,519.01

4,407.7010,953.3724,041.46152,786.6937,996.93

4,284.8211,750.4825,184.93168,829.3641,141.84

4,198.0212,387.0326,182.80182,915.0143,854.29

4,063.0913,202.5627,426.99201,871.5947,400.85

3,941.7513,954.0028,553.97220,642.2950,945.88

3,834.9614,643.2829,561.49237,712.5254,365.68

3,718.0115,363.9330,568.65255,618.0058,075.84

3,630.2815,971.8131,397.34270,466.1561,348.36

3,442.3116,935.6632,527.89294,931.2566,722.41

9000.3

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULAR

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.716,696.8420,003.4088,233.8824,738.41

4,915.267,069.8120,568.4692,949.5725,843.25

4,817.247,842.0421,549.58102,751.0027,914.00

4,674.028,887.3122,744.80116,007.3630,546.88

4,496.419,983.7423,421.47134,955.5634,249.07

4,306.9411,081.5024,057.73156,208.8838,423.54

4,109.4112,170.0525,706.77179,943.1442,948.65

3,793.6113,673.9227,891.23217,630.6149,805.76

3,536.1014,908.3629,549.78249,486.0956,373.24

3,215.9616,338.2831,155.59286,614.6864,643.73

2,929.5317,632.3632,134.05320,050.3273,251.89

2,703.8618,709.1232,546.05347,592.3081,070.99

2,461.9919,841.8332,470.36376,633.6289,708.29

2,265.0320,819.9231,951.12401,486.9897,682.96

1,93722,28631,295439,522110,711.47

MOVILIDAD

00000

00000

00000

00000

ACTUALIDAD

BASE

DEGRADATIVO

ALTO

9000.3

Ingreso per Capita

VIAJES DIARIOS EN EL AO 2020

EDUCACIN

BASEREQUERIMIENTOSDEGRADATIVOREQUERIMIENTOSALTOREQUERIMIENTOSSUPERIORREQUERIMIENTOS

PRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIOR

0.680.310.070.680.310.070.680.310.070.680.310.07

0.690.320.070.680.320.070.690.320.070.690.320.07

0.690.320.070.690.320.070.690.330.070.690.330.07

0.690.330.080.690.330.070.70.340.080.70.340.08

0.70.340.080.70.330.080.720.360.090.720.360.09

0.70.340.080.70.340.080.730.380.090.730.390.1

0.710.350.080.70.340.080.740.390.10.750.410.11

0.710.360.080.710.350.080.740.40.10.760.430.12

0.720.360.090.710.350.080.750.420.110.780.450.14

0.720.370.090.710.350.080.760.430.120.80.480.15

0.730.370.090.710.360.080.770.440.130.810.50.18

0.730.380.090.720.360.090.780.450.140.830.520.2

0.730.390.10.720.370.090.790.460.140.840.540.22

0.740.390.10.720.370.090.790.470.150.850.560.24

0.740.40.10.720.370.090.80.480.160.860.580.26

0.740.40.10.730.370.090.810.50.170.880.60.29

TRANSPORTE

ESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO BASEESCENARIO ALTO CON TASA DE VIAJES EXGENADATOS EXGENOS DE TASASA DE VIAJE INGRESADOS

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULAR

1,330,713204,001140,253502,9841,330,713204,001140,253502,9841,385,183.67197,501.84137,382.12516,428.2800.5800.0070

1,329,671214,299144,024529,4031,329,629214,318144,030529,4541,386,435.66206,620.47141,144.87540,788.091,0000.4890.0140.0140.01

1,327,374226,093148,060557,3941,331,704223,692147,494552,2031,387,534.81216,133.75144,812.50567,593.162,0000.40.0490.0210.074

1,305,509248,316154,517609,4301,332,101234,133151,026575,5231,371,478.29233,863.42150,685.30617,411.073,0000.3280.070.0250.175

1,270,332279,627162,637684,7551,330,683244,865154,626599,3921,344,523.92258,003.36158,475.85683,332.174,0000.2850.0850.0290.247

1,232,620309,866167,924777,3131,328,323255,901158,338628,7041,315,774.23283,080.37164,738.60765,438.475,0000.2650.0960.0310.302

1,213,166329,482170,750840,7181,325,047268,655162,171659,1941,301,862.47300,232.40168,576.71822,826.836,0000.2450.10.0310.347

1,190,078350,508173,098916,7201,320,843281,692166,134690,3331,285,803.25318,414.82172,392.21887,592.747,0000.240.10.0310.385

1,156,901376,015181,3321,012,9761,315,761295,008170,239722,1071,263,330.22340,758.59176,691.46967,835.538,0000.240.10.0310.425

1,133,466396,385188,5161,097,4901,312,468306,840173,286756,1381,249,090.60358,659.53180,552.201,035,446.639,0000.240.10.0310.43

1,097,034422,482197,4741,211,2301,309,641318,232175,831791,8571,225,325.04381,787.28185,229.521,127,743.4810,0000.2350.10.0290.43

1,064,272446,528205,5891,323,8541,306,441329,860178,314828,3091,204,902.61402,611.49188,179.591,216,823.3211,0000.2350.10.0250.43

1,035,439468,585212,8431,426,2751,302,840341,731180,722865,5111,188,746.58421,199.04193,865.981,301,172.4912,0000.230.10.0210.435

1,003,862491,646220,0941,533,7081,298,722353,847183,034903,4901,171,855.96440,069.32200,116.891,393,756.6813,0000.230.10.0170.435

980,176511,098226,0611,622,7971,294,032366,211185,234945,6391,159,605.04456,542.34205,581.921,470,195.5714,0000.230.10.0120.435

929,424541,941234,2011,769,5881,288,681378,826187,299990,197487,2131,134,072.30479,556.65212,817.901,593,230.1715,0000.230.10.0080.435

16,0000.230.10.0020.435

TRANSPORTE

1134072.3

479556.65

212817.9

1593230.17

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(En 15 aos)

SALUD

0

0

0

0

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(Actualmente)

MEDIO AMBIENTE

% AFILIADOS

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

EPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOS

20040.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.09

20050.400.010.310.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.400.010.310.180.090.400.010.310.180.09

20060.400.010.310.180.090.400.010.310.180.090.410.010.310.180.090.410.010.310.180.09

20070.410.010.300.180.090.410.010.300.180.090.420.010.290.190.090.430.010.290.190.09

20080.420.010.290.190.090.410.010.300.180.090.440.010.270.190.090.450.010.260.190.09

20090.420.010.290.190.090.420.010.290.180.090.460.010.250.190.090.470.010.240.190.09

20100.430.010.280.190.090.420.010.290.190.090.480.010.240.190.090.490.010.220.200.08

20110.440.010.270.190.090.430.010.280.190.090.490.010.220.200.080.520.000.200.200.08

20120.450.010.260.190.090.430.010.280.190.090.500.010.210.200.080.550.000.170.200.08

20130.450.010.260.190.090.440.010.270.190.090.520.000.200.200.080.570.000.150.210.08

20140.460.010.250.190.090.440.010.270.190.090.530.000.180.200.080.600.000.120.210.07

20150.470.010.250.190.090.450.010.270.190.090.550.000.170.200.080.630.000.100.220.07

20160.470.010.240.190.090.450.010.260.190.090.560.000.160.210.080.650.000.080.220.07

20170.480.010.240.190.090.450.010.260.190.090.570.000.150.210.080.670.000.070.220.06

20180.480.010.230.190.080.460.010.260.190.090.580.000.140.210.070.680.000.060.230.06

20190.490.010.220.200.080.460.010.250.190.090.600.000.120.210.070.710.000.040.230.06

0.390.490.490.600.710.46

0.010.010.010.000.000.01

0.320.220.220.120.040.25

0.180.200.200.210.230.19

0.090.080.080.070.060.09

MEDIO AMBIENTE

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

ACTUALIDAD

BASE

DEGRADATIVO

ALTO

9000.3

Ingreso per Capita

AFILIACIONES SALUD AO 2020

GINI IDH

BASERESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOMDEGRADATIVORESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOMALTORESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOM9000.3RESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOM68,47266,84478,074100,394

55,56318,26755,562.8618,267.2455,562.8618,267.2455,562.8618,267.2422,51121,97625,66833,006

56,381.8518,536.5056,333.9918,520.7756,381.4118,536.3556,381.4118,536.3525,424,57324,559,23729,655,26836,890,640

57,189.4818,802.0257,120.2918,779.2757,235.6218,817.1957,238.3318,818.082,579,4262,491,6343,008,6483,742,705

57,980.6919,062.1557,881.9319,029.6858,264.4819,155.4558,316.3119,172.4924,919,89024,054,55429,150,58636,385,957

58,752.8719,316.0158,615.9419,270.9959,397.0919,527.8159,486.1119,557.082,528,2242,440,4322,957,4453,691,503

59,530.4819,571.6659,346.4919,511.1860,799.5419,988.8961,131.8420,098.1424,27624,18424,72425,496

60,315.2919,829.6960,075.0819,750.7161,996.4620,382.4062,971.4520,702.94

61,108.1120,090.3460,802.2019,989.7663,294.2320,809.0664,988.9921,366.24

61,911.3920,354.4361,530.0320,229.0564,844.9021,318.8767,997.3022,355.28

62,764.6520,634.9562,260.3120,469.1466,247.2821,779.9370,987.4523,338.34

63,652.1220,926.7362,993.8520,710.3168,006.0422,358.1574,906.4524,626.78

64,565.4021,226.9863,735.0020,953.9769,787.2622,943.7679,216.3426,043.73

65,505.1121,535.9364,488.9321,201.8471,572.4923,530.6883,353.5527,403.91

66,469.5521,853.0065,270.3921,458.7673,519.3224,170.7388,114.5128,969.15

67,458.7522,178.2266,056.1321,717.0975,300.0424,756.1892,600.6830,444.06

68,471.8322,511.2966,843.9921,976.1178,074.2525,668.25100,393.6133,006.12

CONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICO

14,088,1271,429,29814,088,127.401,429,297.7914,088,127.401,429,297.7914,088,127.401,429,297.79

14,585,491.801,479,757.4314,561,864.191,477,360.3114,585,274.581,479,735.3914,585,274.581,479,735.39

15,090,456.081,530,988.1115,055,747.811,527,466.8115,113,589.211,533,335.0615,114,948.261,533,472.94

15,624,403.161,585,159.2115,573,983.251,580,043.9115,769,124.241,599,841.7515,795,542.541,602,522.00

16,189,869.541,642,528.0716,118,626.921,635,300.2216,524,842.041,676,512.3916,571,171.481,681,212.71

16,787,880.601,703,198.7316,690,221.851,693,290.8517,394,979.981,764,791.4317,534,331.631,778,929.22

17,421,107.211,767,442.1417,290,885.481,754,230.6218,196,721.381,846,131.3518,596,889.361,886,730.02

18,092,639.911,835,571.8617,923,088.211,818,370.1519,075,082.791,935,244.6819,756,631.282,004,390.55

18,805,859.981,907,930.9418,589,521.631,885,982.5320,095,008.672,038,720.3121,315,920.772,162,586.81

19,567,381.791,985,190.4219,293,302.951,957,384.0121,094,789.122,140,152.1022,879,147.072,321,182.47

20,380,585.542,067,693.2520,038,092.672,032,945.9522,286,000.262,261,005.3124,794,261.792,515,478.64

21,249,473.332,155,845.4420,827,829.692,113,067.9823,532,886.032,387,506.9426,844,184.612,723,451.64

22,180,250.252,250,276.5521,667,937.722,198,300.3624,835,962.522,519,709.3528,880,735.122,930,067.97

23,180,390.872,351,744.8822,565,903.732,289,402.6626,271,232.232,665,323.3031,186,353.593,163,982.34

24,258,448.402,461,118.2023,526,928.852,386,902.5627,721,431.692,812,451.9333,508,241.753,399,547.33

25,424,572.952,579,426.2724,559,236.942,491,634.4129,655,268.393,008,647.5236,890,640.083,742,705.39

VERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICO

13,782,0161,398,24213,782,016.391,398,241.5813,782,016.391,398,241.5813,782,016.391,398,241.58

14,270,456.321,447,795.8014,246,828.711,445,398.6814,270,239.101,447,773.7614,270,239.101,447,773.76

14,766,079.321,498,078.7714,731,371.051,494,557.4714,789,212.451,500,425.7214,790,571.501,500,563.60

15,290,238.811,551,256.8815,239,818.901,546,141.5715,434,959.891,565,939.4215,461,378.191,568,619.66

15,845,438.221,607,584.1215,774,195.601,600,356.2616,180,410.721,641,568.4416,226,740.161,646,268.75

16,432,665.661,667,160.7316,335,006.901,657,252.8517,039,765.041,728,753.4317,179,116.681,742,891.22

17,054,549.801,730,253.4016,924,328.071,717,041.8817,830,163.961,808,942.6118,230,331.951,849,541.28

17,714,133.191,797,170.8217,544,581.491,779,969.1118,696,576.061,896,843.6419,378,124.561,965,989.50

18,414,742.251,868,250.4518,198,403.901,846,302.0519,703,890.941,999,039.8320,924,803.042,122,906.32

19,162,928.401,944,156.9818,888,849.561,916,350.5720,690,335.732,099,118.6622,474,693.682,280,149.03

19,961,999.262,025,225.9719,619,506.381,990,478.6721,867,413.972,218,538.0324,375,675.502,473,011.36

20,815,872.912,111,854.9220,394,229.272,069,077.4623,099,285.612,343,516.4226,410,584.202,679,461.12

21,730,656.892,204,663.4721,218,344.362,152,687.2824,386,369.172,474,096.2828,431,141.762,884,454.90

22,713,712.022,304,398.4122,099,224.872,242,056.1925,804,553.372,617,976.8330,719,674.733,116,635.87

23,773,458.442,411,913.9923,041,938.882,337,698.3627,236,441.732,763,247.7233,023,251.793,350,343.13

24,919,890.212,528,224.1624,054,554.192,440,432.3029,150,585.652,957,445.4036,385,957.343,691,503.27

CONTAMINACION TOTAL KG/HORACONTAMINACION TOTAL KG/HORA

11,64911,649.3011,649.3011,649.30

12,188.3512,185.0812,188.3212,188.32

12,759.2712,754.2512,762.4112,762.59

13,364.8113,357.6513,384.4813,388.04

14,007.3413,997.3814,053.2514,059.70

14,689.1114,675.6814,770.6014,788.69

15,412.5315,394.9515,515.9615,566.93

16,180.1516,157.6916,307.9016,394.81

16,994.6916,966.5917,157.7217,309.77

17,859.0317,824.5118,048.9518,268.66

18,776.2218,734.4619,006.8619,309.47

19,749.5119,699.6520,019.9920,411.46

20,782.3320,723.5021,089.5621,558.24

21,878.3421,809.6122,226.5022,781.65

23,041.4222,961.8223,421.8724,059.54

24,275.6824,184.2324,724.3025,496.31

ORDENAMIENTO TERRITORIAL MED

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

GINIIDHGINIIDHGINIIDHGINIIDH

0.578.270.578.270.578.270.578.27

0.4978.460.578.410.4978.460.4978.46

0.4978.620.4978.540.4978.670.4978.67

0.4878.780.4978.680.4879.090.4779.15

0.4878.960.4878.810.4679.650.4679.74

0.4779.140.4878.950.4580.10.4580.26

0.4779.330.4879.080.4580.380.4480.82

0.4679.520.4779.210.4580.680.4481.41

0.4679.720.4779.330.4481.080.4382.25

0.4579.870.4679.450.4481.390.4282.85

0.4579.990.4679.570.4381.830.4183.62

0.4580.120.4679.690.4382.190.484.23

0.4580.250.4579.790.4282.470.484.75

0.4580.390.4579.860.4282.770.3985.26

0.4580.530.4579.920.4283.020.3885.68

0.4580.670.4579.980.4183.480.3786.34

0.450.450.410.37

80.6779.9883.4886.34

ORDENAMIENTO TERRITORIAL VA

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

OCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADO

INDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIAL

20043,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041.951.240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.00

20053,801,050.2910,311,447.568,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,573.374,021,219.2610,278,632.398,880,555.535,532,078.8842.477.005.024,070,646.3510,282,088.148,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,558.954,003,777.6910,283,554.968,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,558.95

20064,133,476.2410,648,299.248,935,735.835,545,873.9643,038,745.134,582,773.8410,394,880.238,935,735.835,545,873.9643.032.964.144,733,047.5510,498,590.438,935,735.835,545,873.9643,040,242.264,550,472.6010,558,115.668,935,735.835,545,873.9643,040,333.39

20074,418,244.7910,970,167.378,993,123.345,560,220.8443,632,455.075,054,988.0410,430,629.068,993,123.345,560,220.8443.620.464.265,330,775.5511,204,115.198,993,123.345,560,220.8443,645,646.755,349,134.9511,274,558.438,993,123.345,560,220.8443,647,636.65

20084,705,032.0111,300,221.269,052,806.365,575,141.5944,262,176.705,466,918.9110,451,955.579,052,806.365,575,141.5944.241.217.955,783,075.4211,862,490.369,052,806.365,575,141.5944,310,077.565,729,464.4411,918,174.309,052,806.365,575,141.5944,317,382.44

20094,993,825.2311,638,699.549,114,876.695,590,659.1744,930,377.825,815,935.9610,470,866.399,114,876.695,590,659.1744.896.844.396,211,647.8912,624,752.049,114,876.695,590,659.1745,047,370.756,038,848.0612,608,009.469,114,876.695,590,659.1745,068,110.36

20105,284,610.6711,985,848.359,179,429.845,606,797.4645,639,598.126,089,493.5510,673,036.419,179,429.845,606,797.4645.588.940.876,627,026.6513,105,047.189,179,429.845,606,797.4645,860,632.746,845,977.5313,119,871.419,179,429.845,606,797.4645,920,579.29

20115,577,373.4512,341,921.629,246,565.115,623,581.2846,392,539.196,285,607.2510,979,810.429,246,565.115,623,581.2846.319.163.646,928,806.4414,164,839.149,246,565.115,623,581.2846,746,992.547,660,965.0414,162,152.909,246,565.115,623,581.2846,887,824.25

20125,872,097.5412,707,181.369,316,385.805,641,036.4547,192,081.126,469,994.5911,311,582.749,316,385.805,641,036.4547.089.235.357,191,535.7515,153,481.809,316,385.805,641,036.4547,719,762.148,417,231.4815,467,550.599,316,385.805,641,036.4548,003,455.90

20136,168,765.6713,081,897.859,388,999.315,659,189.8348,041,397.736,646,405.6111,674,683.849,388,999.315,659,189.8347.900.917.407,431,186.5915,642,098.679,388,999.315,659,189.8348,786,073.898,992,525.8716,120,808.839,388,999.315,659,189.8349,299,006.07

20146,467,359.3513,466,350.009,464,517.365,678,069.3448,944,189.496,814,179.5412,072,181.909,464,517.365,678,069.3448.756.043.567,668,642.6815,944,532.069,464,517.365,678,069.3449,954,249.899,540,203.7116,754,424.969,464,517.365,678,069.3450,797,004.18

20156,767,858.8313,860,825.589,543,056.135,697,704.0349,904,007.376,977,564.7712,506,873.669,543,056.135,697,704.0349.656.485.397,874,160.3516,207,998.259,543,056.135,697,704.0351,239,938.2110,182,859.1317,138,299.049,543,056.135,697,704.0352,533,273.96

20167,070,243.0014,265,621.569,624,736.465,718,124.1150,924,571.207,129,188.1612,526,085.379,624,736.465,718,124.1150.604.153.928,065,200.2616,252,189.739,624,736.465,718,124.1152,646,568.2310,628,434.6617,407,994.329,624,736.465,718,124.1154,513,438.88

20177,374,489.4214,681,044.389,709,683.995,739,361.0052,009,893.797,272,379.0612,555,364.219,709,683.995,739,361.0051.601.293.038,229,582.3916,330,763.229,709,683.995,739,361.0054,182,227.8210,740,915.5417,580,706.499,709,683.995,739,361.0056,749,608.72

20187,680,574.2115,107,410.289,798,029.435,761,447.3653,164,288.857,414,960.6812,663,203.269,798,029.435,761,447.3652.650.172.958,415,355.7416,337,765.569,798,029.435,761,447.3655,851,842.8010,791,163.9217,641,330.269,798,029.435,761,447.3659,258,377.76

20197,988,472.0715,545,045.649,889,908.695,784,417.1754,392,398.257,556,500.4112,779,608.699,889,908.695,784,417.1753.753.056.448,622,554.5216,520,426.969,889,908.695,784,417.1757,682,399.5210,888,877.5617,814,947.069,889,908.695,784,417.1762,106,934.46

REQUERIMIENTOS4,676,532.075,609,225.644,244,560.412,843,788.695,310,614.526,584,606.967,576,937.567,879,127.06

3,311,9407,988,4727,556,5008,622,55510,888,878

9,935,82015,545,04612,779,60916,520,42717,814,947

8,831,8409,889,9099,889,9099,889,9099,889,909

5,519,9005,784,4175,784,4175,784,4175,784,417

41,951,24054,392,39853,753,05657,682,40062,106,934

Administrador:Asumiendo que la industria ocupa actualmente el 3% del territorio urbano (110 km2). FUENTE: Municipio

ECONMICO

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

OCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADO

INDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIAL

200410,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.00

200511,523,475.6718,568,633.3116,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,505.8111,479,940.2218,347,519.6716,005,947.729,691,229.4363,225,895.1011,870,148.5518,533,157.3416,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,481.8011,784,162.3118,534,929.7516,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,481.80

200611,950,941.3418,975,662.4216,097,711.679,714,170.4264,159,959.3412,095,383.7818,455,933.9716,097,711.679,714,170.4264,150,344.1012,721,928.5618,794,764.2716,097,711.679,714,170.4264,162,448.1212,487,155.9018,866,690.5916,097,711.679,714,170.4264,162,599.62

200712,317,124.5019,364,586.4016,193,025.269,737,998.8165,145,935.6912,611,350.3918,507,170.1816,193,025.269,737,998.8165,126,008.1113,490,545.4519,647,273.3516,193,025.269,737,998.8165,167,842.7413,514,153.7719,732,392.2716,193,025.269,737,998.8165,171,146.92

200812,685,903.4519,763,401.5216,292,033.339,762,750.8366,190,477.8513,026,066.2618,531,280.0716,292,033.339,762,750.8366,155,675.2614,072,156.7020,442,810.0216,292,033.339,762,750.8366,269,954.0914,003,218.4720,510,094.7816,292,033.339,762,750.8366,282,073.99

200913,057,261.9020,172,396.1116,394,886.609,788,464.1567,297,614.7913,378,443.9218,705,959.1816,394,886.609,788,464.1567,241,977.8014,623,256.9421,363,876.2216,394,886.609,788,464.1567,491,563.5414,401,054.0921,343,645.6016,394,886.609,788,464.1567,525,941.38

201013,431,182.1520,591,867.5816,501,741.879,815,177.9768,471,490.9713,687,181.6118,995,672.4616,501,741.879,815,177.9768,387,511.8115,157,391.4221,944,232.8416,501,741.879,815,177.9768,837,643.0415,438,939.8021,962,145.4616,501,741.879,815,177.9768,936,909.61

201113,807,645.0721,022,122.7916,612,762.279,842,933.0769,716,515.9913,964,005.5019,357,508.5516,612,762.279,842,933.0769,594,971.6215,545,449.2923,224,814.8016,612,762.279,842,933.0770,303,279.3016,486,930.1423,221,568.9316,612,762.279,842,933.0770,536,288.46

201214,186,630.0121,463,478.3116,728,117.589,871,771.9071,037,392.0814,210,908.3319,682,043.1116,728,117.589,871,771.9070,867,162.3815,883,292.2224,419,424.6716,728,117.589,871,771.9071,910,330.0417,459,411.2224,798,924.4716,728,117.589,871,771.9072,379,344.09

201314,568,114.8021,916,260.7316,847,984.449,901,738.6172,439,304.4214,429,591.3820,111,527.3116,847,984.449,901,738.6172,206,954.5516,191,458.6225,009,836.7316,847,984.449,901,738.6173,670,419.5218,199,180.8125,588,278.1716,847,984.449,901,738.6174,517,814.34

201414,952,075.6622,380,807.0816,972,546.679,932,879.1773,928,305.0014,621,681.9420,680,028.4916,972,546.679,932,879.1773,617,339.6916,496,802.8025,375,277.0716,972,546.679,932,879.1775,597,121.4218,903,438.3326,353,897.6616,972,546.679,932,879.1776,988,491.58

201515,338,487.1622,857,465.0817,101,995.579,965,241.3975,510,196.9514,788,736.0821,441,970.3317,101,995.579,965,241.3975,101,373.8516,761,077.4525,693,632.0617,101,995.579,965,241.3977,716,082.0019,729,827.2926,817,745.5117,101,995.579,965,241.3979,850,053.40

201615,727,322.2023,346,593.5617,236,530.229,998,875.0577,191,061.0014,932,241.3022,471,148.5417,236,530.229,998,875.0576,662,180.5717,006,735.1825,747,030.0917,236,530.229,998,875.0580,032,792.1620,302,791.7227,143,627.3117,236,530.229,998,875.0583,111,365.68

201716,118,551.8823,848,562.7917,376,357.8110,033,831.9578,977,460.4215,053,619.1323,398,016.1017,376,357.8110,033,831.9578,303,434.2417,218,113.7425,841,973.0617,376,357.8110,033,831.9582,560,425.6120,447,430.6027,352,321.1717,376,357.8110,033,831.9586,792,004.40

201816,512,145.5324,363,754.9217,521,693.9910,070,166.0080,876,454.2815,154,227.6324,441,819.6717,521,693.9910,070,166.0080,028,855.3317,456,999.2225,850,434.2217,521,693.9910,070,166.0085,306,960.4420,512,044.8627,425,574.9017,521,693.9910,070,166.0090,918,951.35

201916,908,070.6024,892,564.3217,672,763.2110,107,933.3082,895,642.6615,235,363.8124,826,000.4917,672,763.2110,107,933.3081,842,155.2317,723,435.6026,071,150.0817,672,763.2110,107,933.3088,316,653.0920,637,694.5827,635,361.8717,672,763.2110,107,933.3095,602,371.02

REQUERIMIENTOS6,013,540.606,777,814.321,747,933.21436,983.3020,545,162.664,340,833.816,711,250.491,747,933.21436,983.3019,491,675.236,828,905.607,956,400.081,747,933.21436,983.3025,966,173.099,743,164.589,520,611.871,747,933.21436,983.3033,251,891.02

16,908,07115,235,36417,723,43620,637,695

24,892,56424,826,00026,071,15027,635,362

17,672,76317,672,76317,672,76317,672,763

10,107,93310,107,93310,107,93310,107,933

82,895,64381,842,15588,316,65395,602,371

DEMANDAS

BASE

EXPORTACIONES ANUALESINGRESO PER CAPITACREC PIBDESEMPLEOGINIIDH

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,485.812,490.514.20.130.4978.46

20061,559.972,551.203.580.130.4978.62

20071,637.842,615.213.590.130.4878.78

20081,719.602,682.813.60.120.4878.96

20091,805.442,752.863.610.120.4779.140.470.480.450.44

20101,895.572,825.383.620.120.4779.3379.3379.0880.3880.82

20111,990.192,900.423.630.110.4679.5212%18%7%7%

20122,089.552,977.963.630.110.4679.72

20132,193.873,057.983.640.110.4579.87

20142,303.393,140.523.650.100.4579.99

20152,418.393,225.423.660.100.4580.12

20162,539.133,312.783.670.100.4580.25

20172,665.903,402.843.680.090.4580.39

20182,799.013,495.763.680.090.4580.53

20192,938.763,591.793.690.080.4580.67

ALTO

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,484.162,490.324.190.130.4978.46

20061,619.852,570.604.360.120.4978.67

20071,792.482,733.337.240.100.4879.09

20081,903.762,949.058.630.090.4679.65

20092,070.373,215.619.750.080.4580.1

20102,271.843,395.156.480.070.4580.38

20112,443.583,596.686.770.050.4580.68

20122,667.193,859.928.090.030.4481.08

20132,933.484,068.556.360.030.4481.39

20143,259.794,359.917.930.030.4381.83

20153,610.504,637.207.170.030.4382.19

20163,997.604,897.196.510.040.4282.47

20174,387.595,180.466.640.050.4282.77

20184,859.385,413.345.380.060.4283.02

20195,418.555,845.278.670.060.4183.48

DEGRADATIVO

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,414.152,470.163.380.130.578.41

20061,493.972,522.133.260.140.4978.54

20071,573.792,574.153.150.150.4978.68

20081,653.602,626.423.060.160.4878.81

20091,733.422,677.792.970.170.4878.95

20101,813.242,728.222.880.180.4879.08

20111,893.052,777.712.80.190.4779.21

20121,972.872,826.182.720.190.4779.33

20132,052.692,873.572.650.200.4679.45

20142,132.502,919.862.580.210.4679.57

20152,212.322,964.832.520.210.4679.69

20162,292.143,008.542.460.210.4579.79

20172,371.953,051.162.40.210.4579.86

20182,451.773,092.762.340.220.4579.92

20192,531.593,133.482.290.220.4579.98

9000.3

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,484.162,490.324.190.130.4978.46

20061,627.812,571.744.40.130.4978.67

20071,949.652,754.937.990.10.4779.15

20082,155.242,986.029.090.10.4679.74

20092,460.783,320.4111.760.090.4580.26

20102,790.303,687.2511.620.070.4480.82

20113,295.514,079.2711.220.040.4481.41

20123,825.014,698.1115.3400.4382.25

20134,439.715,254.2312.43-0.010.4282.85

20145,150.285,973.0414-0.010.4183.62

20155,900.806,694.6312.51-0.020.484.23

20166,739.517,322.9810.1-0.010.484.75

20177,455.768,024.4910.280.010.3985.26

20188,185.628,640.138.450.030.3885.68

20199,114.719,730.7113.020.040.3786.34

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVOESCENARIO BASEESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO 9000.3ESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO ALTO

AO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHMESES1. SUELO INDUSTRIAL DESTINADO POR EL POT INDUSTRIADEMANDA INDUSTRIA MEDELLNPOT RESIDENCIALDEMANDA RESIDENCIAL MEDELLNPOT COMERCIODEMANDA COMERCIO MEDELLNEPSARSSISBENAFILIADAS A OTROSIN AFILIACINPERSONAS CON PRIMARIADEMANDA PRIMARIAPERSONAS CON SECUNDARIADEMANDA SECUNDARIAPERSONAS CON SUPERIORDEMANDA SUPERIORRS RESIDENCIALESRS ACT. ECONMICACONTAMINACIN TOTAL KG/HORACONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDENCIALCONSUMO DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICADESECHOS DE AGUA RESIDENCIALDESECHOS DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICADEMANDA DE VIAJES TRANSPORTE PBLICODEMANDA DE VIAJES TAXIDEMANDA DE VIAJES MOTOCICLETADEMANDA DE VIAJES PARTICULAR

20040.141,334.332,415.940.5078.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.5078.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.578.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.578.2703,254,049.623,254,049.6241,217,961.8733,493,454.509,762,148.869,762,148.8633%2%51%17%9%2,027,265.901,519,422.121,039,443.68615,012.46163,713.00162,119.4456,005.4218,879.5311,649.3013,435,004.771,363,035.8413,144,162.271,333,528.6939,934,468.806,133,760.404,211,568.6015,118,521.60

20050.131,414.152,470.160.5078.4120050.131,485.812,490.510.4978.4620050.131,484.162,490.320.4978.4620050.131,484.162,490.320.4978.46123,254,049.623,806,772.6241,217,961.8734,715,573.189,762,148.8610,092,210.4034%2%49%17%9%2,051,388.851,546,071.061,064,406.96636,506.07174,869.30169,981.6956,973.3619,498.4311,667.7913,869,397.711,407,106.7713,571,307.041,376,864.2640,227,471.496,213,729.354,216,003.8115,486,615.13

20060.141,493.972,522.130.4978.5420060.131,559.972,551.200.4978.6220060.121,619.852,570.600.4978.6720060.131,627.812,571.740.4978.67243,254,049.624,273,970.1041,217,961.8736,051,341.949,762,148.8610,337,130.8935%2%48%17%9%2,077,280.741,571,631.651,089,839.90656,485.60186,071.53177,406.8757,945.9220,137.0411,687.1414,321,253.291,452,949.3614,015,447.471,421,924.1240,564,207.176,292,783.674,219,130.8615,929,272.02

20070.151,573.792,574.150.4978.6820070.131,637.842,615.210.4878.7820070.101,792.482,733.330.4879.0920070.11,949.652,754.930.4779.15363,254,049.624,771,732.7441,217,961.8737,528,133.869,762,148.8610,903,248.8236%2%45%18%9%2,104,494.511,606,538.251,115,676.06690,833.43197,240.06191,571.2959,252.7320,964.2011,721.8614,914,133.351,513,099.4514,600,115.321,481,241.0540,798,855.246,380,153.234,192,995.2316,728,030.22

20080.161,653.602,626.420.4878.8120080.121,719.602,682.810.4878.9620080.091,903.762,949.050.4679.6520080.12,155.242,986.020.4679.74483,254,049.625,138,841.9641,217,961.8739,193,285.879,762,148.8611,467,449.6437%1%41%18%9%2,132,641.371,644,718.171,141,804.52730,824.31208,378.96209,412.1060,776.3721,899.9011,766.5715,604,099.821,583,099.3515,281,340.501,550,354.1140,960,202.706,431,768.884,129,195.3017,695,526.69

20090.171,733.422,677.790.4878.9520090.121,805.442,752.860.4779.1420090.082,070.373,215.610.4580.120090.092,460.783,320.410.4580.26603,254,049.625,523,294.6341,217,961.8741,089,995.359,762,148.8612,062,487.3139%1%38%18%9%2,161,650.021,686,434.041,168,240.23776,013.60219,498.13231,325.7062,586.7122,943.0511,821.5016,402,814.941,664,132.2516,070,751.171,630,443.0341,059,689.306,408,755.024,009,977.7218,825,699.01

20100.181,813.242,728.220.4879.0820100.121,895.572,825.380.4779.3320100.072,271.843,395.150.4580.3820100.072,790.303,687.250.4480.82723,254,049.625,915,833.1741,217,961.8743,234,316.709,762,148.8612,613,881.6640%1%36%18%9%2,191,430.171,718,557.361,194,969.30807,440.68230,603.22247,033.9764,098.0923,894.1111,863.4017,134,637.331,738,378.6116,792,669.641,703,684.5941,238,992.936,353,353.873,904,034.7119,787,432.99

20110.191,893.052,777.710.4779.2120110.111,990.192,900.420.4679.5220110.052,443.583,596.680.4580.6820110.043,295.514,079.270.4481.41843,254,049.626,203,774.4141,217,961.8745,627,870.859,762,148.8613,486,182.6541%1%34%18%9%2,221,927.461,751,629.521,221,971.35840,225.73241,698.77264,319.0565,744.8524,915.9711,907.7817,937,187.971,819,800.6317,584,678.301,784,037.0941,402,542.706,243,985.603,768,508.2020,758,361.30

20120.191,972.872,826.180.4779.3320120.112,089.552,977.960.4679.7220120.032,667.193,859.920.4481.08201203,825.014,698.110.4382.25963,254,049.626,534,621.4641,217,961.8748,318,628.009,762,148.8614,226,148.9943%1%31%19%8%2,253,149.371,789,524.711,249,244.69879,940.94252,859.10286,948.2467,793.0426,077.2411,964.8518,885,654.031,916,026.3718,521,923.201,879,124.4041,488,311.776,008,073.883,548,893.4821,937,859.11

20130.202,052.692,873.570.4679.4520130.112,193.873,057.980.4579.8720130.032,933.484,068.550.4481.39201304,439.715,254.230.4282.851083,254,049.626,844,618.0241,217,961.8751,340,513.619,762,148.8614,638,647.7644%1%30%19%8%2,285,107.501,821,864.851,276,811.05911,650.72264,022.64305,507.2069,638.9327,213.7512,013.9319,811,415.022,009,948.5819,435,740.091,971,834.8341,626,018.835,755,439.893,338,908.1422,905,231.75

20140.212,132.502,919.860.4679.5720140.102,303.393,140.520.4579.9920140.033,259.794,359.910.4381.83201405,150.285,973.040.4183.621203,254,049.627,184,654.0941,217,961.8754,731,338.679,762,148.8614,937,657.7645%1%28%19%8%2,317,775.071,859,867.921,304,677.91951,429.13275,195.04330,778.9472,037.0128,515.4112,077.9220,923,113.622,122,734.9220,534,725.082,083,331.3341,676,617.105,307,577.533,009,276.3824,186,021.46

20150.212,212.322,964.830.4679.6920150.102,418.393,225.420.4580.1220150.033,610.504,637.200.4382.19201505,900.806,694.630.484.231323,254,049.627,535,178.7841,217,961.8758,554,448.729,762,148.8615,170,388.3347%1%26%19%8%2,351,055.231,895,986.151,332,823.90988,450.08286,309.63355,463.9574,497.9329,862.0712,142.2922,089,017.902,241,020.6521,687,096.662,200,244.1141,731,401.494,757,892.852,633,144.7325,507,113.14

20160.212,292.143,008.540.4579.7920160.102,539.133,312.780.4580.2520160.043,997.604,897.190.4282.47201606,739.517,322.980.484.751443,254,049.627,903,806.4941,217,961.8762,840,035.259,762,148.8615,522,650.4848%1%25%19%8%2,384,802.711,930,281.981,361,209.311,022,817.40297,434.91379,309.5576,988.6331,258.1612,204.8823,308,110.282,364,702.5322,891,784.482,322,464.5841,801,851.304,136,223.892,228,500.1026,731,972.22

20170.212,371.953,051.160.4579.8620170.092,665.903,402.840.4580.3920170.054,387.595,180.460.4282.7720170.017,455.768,024.490.3985.261563,254,049.628,224,563.1441,217,961.8767,632,008.519,762,148.8615,643,915.5649%1%23%20%8%2,418,869.951,963,775.651,389,763.541,057,819.74308,565.59404,868.9579,717.6032,749.8112,271.6724,638,478.382,499,673.7824,206,819.982,455,880.2841,849,955.063,365,476.771,747,872.3728,131,717.72

20180.222,451.773,092.760.4579.9220180.092,799.013,495.760.4580.5320180.064,859.385,413.340.4283.0220180.038,185.628,640.130.3885.681683,254,049.628,645,856.2841,217,961.8772,969,124.309,762,148.8615,678,553.4550%1%22%20%8%2,453,139.761,993,845.201,418,407.271,088,343.39319,694.09427,583.5982,296.0134,276.1112,332.6425,989,973.352,636,788.4425,541,994.532,591,339.1741,938,906.372,595,448.801,280,123.6129,373,457.17

20190.222,531.593,133.480.4579.9820190.082,938.763,591.790.4580.6720190.065,418.555,845.270.4183.4820190.049,114.719,730.710.3786.341803,254,049.629,207,539.9341,217,961.8778,973,500.339,762,148.8616,141,133.7351%1%21%20%8%2,487,483.842,034,399.611,447,072.311,135,554.41330,812.98467,374.7286,572.2936,128.2412,432.9927,809,225.132,821,358.9327,343,874.432,774,147.2141,789,001.481,011,831.00362,132.0831,296,335.11

37,755,538.46

0.140.140.140.14

0.130.130.130.13

0.140.130.120.13

0.150.130.10.1

0.160.120.090.1

0.170.120.080.09

0.180.120.070.07

0.190.110.050.04

0.190.110.030

0.20.110.030

0.210.10.030

0.210.10.030

0.210.10.040

0.210.090.050.01

0.220.090.060.03

0.220.080.060.04

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

AO

TASA DE DESEMPLEO

2415.942415.942415.942415.94

2470.162490.512490.322490.32

2522.132551.22570.62571.74

2574.152615.212733.332754.93

2626.422682.812949.052986.02

2677.792752.863215.613320.41

2728.222825.383395.153687.25

2777.712900.423596.684079.27

2826.182977.963859.924698.11

2873.573057.984068.555254.23

2919.863140.524359.915973.04

2964.833225.424637.26694.63

3008.543312.784897.197322.98

3051.163402.845180.468024.49

3092.763495.765413.348640.13

3133.483591.795845.279730.71

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

PIB PER CAPITA US

0.50.50.50.5

0.50.490.490.49

0.490.490.490.49

0.490.480.480.47

0.480.480.460.46

0.480.470.450.45

0.480.470.450.44

0.470.460.450.44

0.470.460.440.43

0.460.450.440.42

0.460.450.430.41

0.460.450.430.4

0.450.450.420.4

0.450.450.420.39

0.450.450.420.38

0.450.450.410.37

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

GINI

1334.331334.331334.331334.33

1414.151485.811484.161484.16

1493.971559.971619.851627.81

1573.791637.841792.481949.65

1653.61719.61903.762155.24

1733.421805.442070.372460.78

1813.241895.572271.842790.3

1893.051990.192443.583295.51

1972.872089.552667.193825.01

2052.692193.872933.484439.71

2132.52303.393259.795150.28

2212.322418.393610.55900.8

2292.142539.133997.66739.51

2371.952665.94387.597455.76

2451.772799.014859.388185.62

2531.592938.765418.559114.71

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US (millones de dlares)

78.2778.2778.2778.27

78.4178.4678.4678.46

78.5478.6278.6778.67

78.6878.7879.0979.15

78.8178.9679.6579.74

78.9579.1480.180.26

79.0879.3380.3880.82

79.2179.5280.6881.41

79.3379.7281.0882.25

79.4579.8781.3982.85

79.5779.9981.8383.62

79.6980.1282.1984.23

79.7980.2582.4784.75

79.8680.3982.7785.26

79.9280.5383.0285.68

79.9880.6783.4886.34

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

IDH

41217961.8733493454.5

41217961.8734715573.18

41217961.8736051341.94

41217961.8737528133.86

41217961.8739193285.87

41217961.8741089995.35

41217961.8743234316.7

41217961.8745627870.85

41217961.8748318628

41217961.8751340513.61

41217961.8754731338.67

41217961.8758554448.72

41217961.8762840035.25

41217961.8767632008.51

41217961.8772969124.3

41217961.8778973500.33

POT

DEMANDA DE SUELO RESIDENCIAL

SUELO RESIDENCIAL(Escenario Alto)

3254049.623254049.62

3254049.623806772.62

3254049.624273970.1

3254049.624771732.74

3254049.625138841.96

3254049.625523294.63

3254049.625915833.17

3254049.626203774.41

3254049.626534621.46

3254049.626844618.02

3254049.627184654.09

3254049.627535178.78

3254049.627903806.49

3254049.628224563.14

3254049.628645856.28

3254049.629207539.93

POT

DEMANDA DE SUELO INDUSTRIAL

SUELO INDUSTRIAL(Escenario Alto)

33493454.541217961.87

34715573.1841217961.87

36051341.9441217961.87

37528133.8641217961.87

39193285.8741217961.87

41089995.3541217961.87

43234316.741217961.87

45627870.8541217961.87

4831862841217961.87

51340513.6141217961.87

54731338.6741217961.87

58554448.7241217961.87

62840035.2541217961.87

67632008.5141217961.87

72969124.341217961.87

78973500.3341217961.87

DEMANDA DE SUELO RESIDENCIAL

POT

SUELO RESIDENCIAL(Escenario Alto)

3254049.623254049.62

3254049.623806772.62

3254049.624273970.1

3254049.624771732.74

3254049.625138841.96

3254049.625523294.63

3254049.625915833.17

3254049.626203774.41

3254049.626534621.46

3254049.626844618.02

3254049.627184654.09

3254049.627535178.78

3254049.627903806.49

3254049.628224563.14

3254049.628645856.28

3254049.629207539.93

POT

DEMANDA DE SUELO INDUSTRIAL

SUELO INDUSTRIAL(Escenario Alto)

9762148.869762148.86

9762148.8610092210.4

9762148.8610337130.89

9762148.8610903248.82

9762148.8611467449.64

9762148.8612062487.31

9762148.8612613881.66

9762148.8613486182.65

9762148.8614226148.99

9762148.8614638647.76

9762148.8614937657.76

9762148.8615170388.33

9762148.8615522650.48

9762148.8615643915.56

9762148.8615678553.45

9762148.8616141133.73

POT

DEMANDA DE SUELO COMERCIO Y SERVICIOS

SUELO COMERCIO Y SERVICIOS(Escenario Alto)

9762148.869762148.86

10092210.49762148.86

10337130.899762148.86

10903248.829762148.86

11467449.649762148.86

12062487.319762148.86

12613881.669762148.86

13486182.659762148.86

14226148.999762148.86

14638647.769762148.86

14937657.769762148.86

15170388.339762148.86

15522650.489762148.86

15643915.569762148.86

15678553.459762148.86

16141133.739762148.86

DEMANDA DE SUELO COMERCIO Y SERVICIOS

POT

SUELO COMERCIO Y SERVICIOS(Escenario Alto)

0.51

0.01

0.21

0.2

0.08

SALUD

SALUD(En 15 aos)

52%

0.33

0.02

0.51

0.17

0.09

SALUD

SALUD(Actualmente...)

2027265.9

1519422.12

1039443.68

615012.46

163713

162119.44

EDUCACIN

EDUCACIN(Actualmente...)

2487483.84

2034399.61

1447072.31

1135554.41

330812.98

467374.72

EDUCACIN

EDUCACIN(En 15 aos...)

86572.29

36128.24

RESIDUOS SLIDOS(En 15 aos)

RS RESIDENCIALES 86,572.29 71%

RS ACT. ECONMICA 36,128.24 29%

56005.4218879.53

56973.3619498.43

57945.9220137.04

59252.7320964.2

60776.3721899.9

62586.7122943.05

64098.0923894.11

65744.8524915.97

67793.0426077.24

69638.9327213.75

72037.0128515.41

74497.9329862.07

76988.6331258.16

79717.632749.81

82296.0134276.11

86572.2936128.24

RS RESIDENCIALES

RS ACT. ECONMICA

RESIDUOS SLIDOS(Escenario Alto)

11649.3

11667.79

11687.14

11721.86

11766.57

11821.5

11863.4

11907.78

11964.85

12013.93

12077.92

12142.29

12204.88

12271.67

12332.64

12432.99

CONTAMINACIN

CONTAMINACIN ATMOSFERICA(Kg/hora)

27809225.13

2821358.93

CONSUMO DE AGUA(En 15 aos)

CONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDENCIAL 28,407,202.75m3/mes 91%

CONSUMO DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICA 2,882,026.19 m3/mes 9%

27343874.43

2774147.21

VERTIMIENTO DE AGUA(En 15 aos)

DESECHOS DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICA 2,774,017.15 9%

41789001.48

1011831

362132.08

31296335.11

SALUD

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(En 15 aos)

39934468.8

6133760.4

4211568.6

15118521.6

SALUD

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(Actualmente)

13435004.771363035.84

13869397.711407106.77

14321253.291452949.36

14914133.351513099.45

15604099.821583099.35

16402814.941664132.25

17134637.331738378.61

17937187.971819800.63

18885654.031916026.37

19811415.022009948.58

20923113.622122734.92

22089017.92241020.65

23308110.282364702.53

24638478.382499673.78

25989973.352636788.44

27809225.132821358.93

CONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDENCIAL

CONSUMO DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICA

CONSUMO DE AGUA(Escenario Alto)

56005.4218879.53

56973.3619498.43

57945.9220137.04

59252.7320964.2

60776.3721899.9

62586.7122943.05

64098.0923894.11

65744.8524915.97

67793.0426077.24

69638.9327213.75

72037.0128515.41

74497.9329862.07

76988.6331258.16

79717.632749.81

82296.0134276.11

86572.2936128.24

RS RESIDENCIAL

RS ACT. ECONMICA

RESIDUOS SLIDOS(Escenario Alto)

13144162.271333528.69

13571307.041376864.26

14015447.471421924.12

14600115.321481241.05

15281340.51550354.11

16070751.171630443.03

16792669.641703684.59

17584678.31784037.09

18521923.21879124.4

19435740.091971834.83

20534725.082083331.33

21687096.662200244.11

22891784.482322464.58

24206819.982455880.28

25541994.532591339.17

27343874.432774147.21

VERTIMIENTO DE AGUA RESIDENCIAL

VERTIMIENTO DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICA

VERTIMIENTO DE AGUA(Escenario Alto)

EXPORTACIONES

Grfico2

1334.331334.331334.331334.33

1414.151485.811484.161484.16

1493.971559.971619.851627.81

1573.791637.841792.481949.65

1653.61719.61903.762155.24

1733.421805.442070.372460.78

1813.241895.572271.842790.3

1893.051990.192443.583295.51

1972.872089.552667.193825.01

2052.692193.872933.484439.71

2132.52303.393259.795150.28

2212.322418.393610.55900.8

2292.142539.133997.66739.51

2371.952665.94387.597455.76

2451.772799.014859.388185.62

2531.592938.765418.559114.71

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVO

ESCENARIO BASE

ESCENARIO ALTO

ESCENARIO 9000.3

EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US (millones de dlares)

MOVILIDAD

VIAJES DIARIOS

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARTRANSPROTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULAR

20041,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.421,330,712.52204,000.77140,253.39502,984.42

20051,329,629.18214,318.43144,029.84529,454.291,334,128.99212,170.35143,442.97523,885.391,329,670.55214,298.75144,024.45529,403.301,329,670.55214,298.75144,024.45529,403.30

20061,331,704.14223,692.13147,494.19552,202.891,338,199.95220,182.60146,646.27544,340.981,327,374.49226,093.46148,059.71557,393.691,327,120.12226,234.03148,092.94557,697.44

20071,332,100.51234,132.70151,025.55575,522.711,341,363.52229,055.62149,814.26564,561.481,305,508.58248,316.40154,516.71609,429.881,300,653.73250,945.33155,156.96616,506.01

20081,330,683.34244,864.69154,626.27599,391.641,343,516.40237,974.64152,943.50584,548.911,270,332.18279,626.54162,637.49684,754.551,261,985.49284,394.03163,762.52696,044.19

20091,328,323.39255,900.70158,338.06628,703.941,345,558.63246,776.84156,069.65604,253.581,232,619.68309,866.00167,924.45777,313.421,214,029.76319,479.53168,634.56809,733.35

20101,325,046.88268,654.87162,170.84659,194.331,347,546.30255,466.80159,195.82626,765.421,213,165.67329,481.68170,750.09840,718.201,162,873.25354,608.11173,215.64937,253.30

20111,320,842.60281,692.12166,133.76690,333.251,349,498.75264,644.39162,323.59649,893.311,190,078.18350,507.86173,098.48916,720.121,109,540.36389,441.58185,088.751,079,658.82

20121,315,761.09295,007.93170,238.97722,107.431,351,497.64274,170.34165,456.77672,718.341,156,901.47376,015.35181,331.501,012,976.171,024,274.44437,565.30200,816.821,305,783.64

20131,312,468.41306,840.14173,285.66756,137.581,353,607.47283,576.60168,598.39695,250.731,133,466.31396,385.08188,516.131,097,490.03954,747.12477,067.55212,758.391,496,916.56

20141,309,640.77318,231.77175,831.05791,856.501,355,859.00292,869.11171,750.07717,505.221,097,033.96422,482.05197,474.291,211,229.55868,309.66522,824.97224,320.221,719,688.06

20151,306,441.32329,860.34178,313.78828,308.591,358,413.37302,046.75174,918.21739,481.441,064,271.50446,527.98205,588.561,323,853.72790,973.88564,235.42231,365.151,920,301.93

20161,302,839.83341,730.84180,721.65865,511.251,361,650.53310,848.62177,922.97761,236.021,035,438.79468,584.92212,842.731,426,275.14730,043.47598,691.78234,331.592,085,553.79

20171,298,721.74353,846.83183,034.20903,489.571,366,692.80318,478.88180,189.47784,157.261,003,861.65491,645.86220,094.261,533,707.98664,737.31634,938.50233,786.572,259,801.70

20181,294,032.10366,211.41185,234.11945,639.231,371,907.42326,051.34182,431.57806,858.33980,176.19511,097.89226,060.861,622,796.88611,557.82666,237.54230,048.052,408,921.89

20191,288,681.47378,826.20187,299.28990,196.931,377,215.81333,569.71184,645.11829,363.54929,423.71541,941.15234,200.841,769,587.50523,100.65713,148.90225,325.482,637,132.99

1,377,216

333,570

184,645

829,364

REQUERIDOS SEGN OCUPACIN Y VIAJES

BASE

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULARCARGA

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.556,697.4520,004.1588,242.3824,740.12

4,932.246,990.3820,485.3092,033.8225,653.83

4,933.717,316.6520,975.7795,920.4526,590.32

4,928.467,652.0221,475.8799,898.6127,563.42

4,919.727,996.9021,991.40104,783.9928,574.62

4,907.588,395.4622,523.73109,865.7229,625.48

4,892.018,802.8823,074.13115,055.5430,717.63

4,873.199,219.0023,644.30120,351.2431,852.76

4,860.999,588.7524,067.45126,022.9333,032.63

4,850.529,944.7424,420.98131,976.0834,259.09

4,838.6710,308.1424,765.80138,051.4335,534.044,7735,1013,4421,937

4,825.3310,679.0925,100.23144,251.8836,859.4911,83810,42416,93622,286

4,810.0811,057.7125,421.42150,581.5938,237.5226,01425,64532,52831,295

4,792.7111,444.1125,726.96157,606.5439,670.30165,033138,227294,931439,522

4,772.8911,838.3226,013.79165,032.8241,160.0941,16035,94966,722110,711

DEGRADATIVO

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,941.226,630.3219,922.6387,314.2324,554.17

4,956.306,880.7120,367.5490,723.5025,368.12

4,968.017,157.9920,807.5494,093.5826,182.02

4,975.997,436.7121,242.1597,424.8226,995.94

4,983.557,711.7821,676.34100,708.9327,809.85

4,990.917,983.3422,110.53104,460.9028,623.76

4,998.148,270.1422,544.94108,315.5529,437.68

5,005.558,567.8222,980.11112,119.7230,251.59

5,013.368,861.7723,416.44115,875.1231,065.50

5,021.709,152.1623,854.18119,584.2031,879.42

5,031.169,438.9624,294.20123,246.9132,693.33

5,043.159,714.0224,711.52126,872.6733,507.25

5,061.839,952.4725,026.32130,692.8834,321.16

5,081.1410,189.1025,337.72134,476.3935,135.07

5,100.8010,424.0525,645.15138,227.2635,948.99

ALTO

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.716,696.8420,003.4088,233.8824,738.41

4,916.207,065.4220,563.8592,898.9525,832.72

4,835.227,759.8921,460.65101,571.6527,711.12

4,704.938,738.3322,588.54114,125.7630,179.29

4,565.269,683.3123,322.84129,552.2433,218.25

4,493.2110,296.3023,715.29140,119.7035,519.01

4,407.7010,953.3724,041.46152,786.6937,996.93

4,284.8211,750.4825,184.93168,829.3641,141.84

4,198.0212,387.0326,182.80182,915.0143,854.29

4,063.0913,202.5627,426.99201,871.5947,400.85

3,941.7513,954.0028,553.97220,642.2950,945.88

3,834.9614,643.2829,561.49237,712.5254,365.68

3,718.0115,363.9330,568.65255,618.0058,075.84

3,630.2815,971.8131,397.34270,466.1561,348.36

3,442.3116,935.6632,527.89294,931.2566,722.41

9000.3

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOPARTICULAR

4,928.566,375.0219,479.6483,830.7423,806.00

4,924.716,696.8420,003.4088,233.8824,738.41

4,915.267,069.8120,568.4692,949.5725,843.25

4,817.247,842.0421,549.58102,751.0027,914.00

4,674.028,887.3122,744.80116,007.3630,546.88

4,496.419,983.7423,421.47134,955.5634,249.07

4,306.9411,081.5024,057.73156,208.8838,423.54

4,109.4112,170.0525,706.77179,943.1442,948.65

3,793.6113,673.9227,891.23217,630.6149,805.76

3,536.1014,908.3629,549.78249,486.0956,373.24

3,215.9616,338.2831,155.59286,614.6864,643.73

2,929.5317,632.3632,134.05320,050.3273,251.89

2,703.8618,709.1232,546.05347,592.3081,070.99

2,461.9919,841.8332,470.36376,633.6289,708.29

2,265.0320,819.9231,951.12401,486.9897,682.96

1,93722,28631,295439,522110,711.47

MOVILIDAD

00000

00000

00000

00000

ACTUALIDAD

BASE

DEGRADATIVO

ALTO

9000.3

Ingreso per Capita

VIAJES DIARIOS EN EL AO 2020

EDUCACIN

BASEREQUERIMIENTOSDEGRADATIVOREQUERIMIENTOSALTOREQUERIMIENTOSSUPERIORREQUERIMIENTOS

PRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIORPRIMARIASECUNDARIASUPERIOR

0.680.310.070.680.310.070.680.310.070.680.310.07

0.690.320.070.680.320.070.690.320.070.690.320.07

0.690.320.070.690.320.070.690.330.070.690.330.07

0.690.330.080.690.330.070.70.340.080.70.340.08

0.70.340.080.70.330.080.720.360.090.720.360.09

0.70.340.080.70.340.080.730.380.090.730.390.1

0.710.350.080.70.340.080.740.390.10.750.410.11

0.710.360.080.710.350.080.740.40.10.760.430.12

0.720.360.090.710.350.080.750.420.110.780.450.14

0.720.370.090.710.350.080.760.430.120.80.480.15

0.730.370.090.710.360.080.770.440.130.810.50.18

0.730.380.090.720.360.090.780.450.140.830.520.2

0.730.390.10.720.370.090.790.460.140.840.540.22

0.740.390.10.720.370.090.790.470.150.850.560.24

0.740.40.10.720.370.090.80.480.160.860.580.26

0.740.40.10.730.370.090.810.50.170.880.60.29

TRANSPORTE

ESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO BASEESCENARIO ALTO CON TASA DE VIAJES EXGENADATOS EXGENOS DE TASASA DE VIAJE INGRESADOS

TRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULARTRANSPORTE PBLICOTAXIMOTOCICLETAPARTICULAR

1,330,713204,001140,253502,9841,330,713204,001140,253502,9841,385,183.67197,501.84137,382.12516,428.2800.5800.0070

1,329,671214,299144,024529,4031,329,629214,318144,030529,4541,386,435.66206,620.47141,144.87540,788.091,0000.4890.0140.0140.01

1,327,374226,093148,060557,3941,331,704223,692147,494552,2031,387,534.81216,133.75144,812.50567,593.162,0000.40.0490.0210.074

1,305,509248,316154,517609,4301,332,101234,133151,026575,5231,371,478.29233,863.42150,685.30617,411.073,0000.3280.070.0250.175

1,270,332279,627162,637684,7551,330,683244,865154,626599,3921,344,523.92258,003.36158,475.85683,332.174,0000.2850.0850.0290.247

1,232,620309,866167,924777,3131,328,323255,901158,338628,7041,315,774.23283,080.37164,738.60765,438.475,0000.2650.0960.0310.302

1,213,166329,482170,750840,7181,325,047268,655162,171659,1941,301,862.47300,232.40168,576.71822,826.836,0000.2450.10.0310.347

1,190,078350,508173,098916,7201,320,843281,692166,134690,3331,285,803.25318,414.82172,392.21887,592.747,0000.240.10.0310.385

1,156,901376,015181,3321,012,9761,315,761295,008170,239722,1071,263,330.22340,758.59176,691.46967,835.538,0000.240.10.0310.425

1,133,466396,385188,5161,097,4901,312,468306,840173,286756,1381,249,090.60358,659.53180,552.201,035,446.639,0000.240.10.0310.43

1,097,034422,482197,4741,211,2301,309,641318,232175,831791,8571,225,325.04381,787.28185,229.521,127,743.4810,0000.2350.10.0290.43

1,064,272446,528205,5891,323,8541,306,441329,860178,314828,3091,204,902.61402,611.49188,179.591,216,823.3211,0000.2350.10.0250.43

1,035,439468,585212,8431,426,2751,302,840341,731180,722865,5111,188,746.58421,199.04193,865.981,301,172.4912,0000.230.10.0210.435

1,003,862491,646220,0941,533,7081,298,722353,847183,034903,4901,171,855.96440,069.32200,116.891,393,756.6813,0000.230.10.0170.435

980,176511,098226,0611,622,7971,294,032366,211185,234945,6391,159,605.04456,542.34205,581.921,470,195.5714,0000.230.10.0120.435

929,424541,941234,2011,769,5881,288,681378,826187,299990,197487,2131,134,072.30479,556.65212,817.901,593,230.1715,0000.230.10.0080.435

16,0000.230.10.0020.435

TRANSPORTE

1134072.3

479556.65

212817.9

1593230.17

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(En 15 aos)

SALUD

0

0

0

0

DEMANDA DE VIAJES(Actualmente)

MEDIO AMBIENTE

% AFILIADOS

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

EPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOSEPSARSSISBENOTRONO AFILIADOS

20040.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.390.010.320.180.09

20050.400.010.310.180.090.390.010.320.180.090.400.010.310.180.090.400.010.310.180.09

20060.400.010.310.180.090.400.010.310.180.090.410.010.310.180.090.410.010.310.180.09

20070.410.010.300.180.090.410.010.300.180.090.420.010.290.190.090.430.010.290.190.09

20080.420.010.290.190.090.410.010.300.180.090.440.010.270.190.090.450.010.260.190.09

20090.420.010.290.190.090.420.010.290.180.090.460.010.250.190.090.470.010.240.190.09

20100.430.010.280.190.090.420.010.290.190.090.480.010.240.190.090.490.010.220.200.08

20110.440.010.270.190.090.430.010.280.190.090.490.010.220.200.080.520.000.200.200.08

20120.450.010.260.190.090.430.010.280.190.090.500.010.210.200.080.550.000.170.200.08

20130.450.010.260.190.090.440.010.270.190.090.520.000.200.200.080.570.000.150.210.08

20140.460.010.250.190.090.440.010.270.190.090.530.000.180.200.080.600.000.120.210.07

20150.470.010.250.190.090.450.010.270.190.090.550.000.170.200.080.630.000.100.220.07

20160.470.010.240.190.090.450.010.260.190.090.560.000.160.210.080.650.000.080.220.07

20170.480.010.240.190.090.450.010.260.190.090.570.000.150.210.080.670.000.070.220.06

20180.480.010.230.190.080.460.010.260.190.090.580.000.140.210.070.680.000.060.230.06

20190.490.010.220.200.080.460.010.250.190.090.600.000.120.210.070.710.000.040.230.06

0.390.490.490.600.710.46

0.010.010.010.000.000.01

0.320.220.220.120.040.25

0.180.200.200.210.230.19

0.090.080.080.070.060.09

MEDIO AMBIENTE

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

ACTUALIDAD

BASE

DEGRADATIVO

ALTO

9000.3

Ingreso per Capita

AFILIACIONES SALUD AO 2020

GINI IDH

BASERESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOMDEGRADATIVORESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOMALTORESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOM9000.3RESIDUOS RESRESID ECONOM68,47266,84478,074100,394

55,56318,26755,562.8618,267.2455,562.8618,267.2455,562.8618,267.2422,51121,97625,66833,006

56,381.8518,536.5056,333.9918,520.7756,381.4118,536.3556,381.4118,536.3525,424,57324,559,23729,655,26836,890,640

57,189.4818,802.0257,120.2918,779.2757,235.6218,817.1957,238.3318,818.082,579,4262,491,6343,008,6483,742,705

57,980.6919,062.1557,881.9319,029.6858,264.4819,155.4558,316.3119,172.4924,919,89024,054,55429,150,58636,385,957

58,752.8719,316.0158,615.9419,270.9959,397.0919,527.8159,486.1119,557.082,528,2242,440,4322,957,4453,691,503

59,530.4819,571.6659,346.4919,511.1860,799.5419,988.8961,131.8420,098.1424,27624,18424,72425,496

60,315.2919,829.6960,075.0819,750.7161,996.4620,382.4062,971.4520,702.94

61,108.1120,090.3460,802.2019,989.7663,294.2320,809.0664,988.9921,366.24

61,911.3920,354.4361,530.0320,229.0564,844.9021,318.8767,997.3022,355.28

62,764.6520,634.9562,260.3120,469.1466,247.2821,779.9370,987.4523,338.34

63,652.1220,926.7362,993.8520,710.3168,006.0422,358.1574,906.4524,626.78

64,565.4021,226.9863,735.0020,953.9769,787.2622,943.7679,216.3426,043.73

65,505.1121,535.9364,488.9321,201.8471,572.4923,530.6883,353.5527,403.91

66,469.5521,853.0065,270.3921,458.7673,519.3224,170.7388,114.5128,969.15

67,458.7522,178.2266,056.1321,717.0975,300.0424,756.1892,600.6830,444.06

68,471.8322,511.2966,843.9921,976.1178,074.2525,668.25100,393.6133,006.12

CONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICOCONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDCONSUMO DE AGUA ECONOMICO

14,088,1271,429,29814,088,127.401,429,297.7914,088,127.401,429,297.7914,088,127.401,429,297.79

14,585,491.801,479,757.4314,561,864.191,477,360.3114,585,274.581,479,735.3914,585,274.581,479,735.39

15,090,456.081,530,988.1115,055,747.811,527,466.8115,113,589.211,533,335.0615,114,948.261,533,472.94

15,624,403.161,585,159.2115,573,983.251,580,043.9115,769,124.241,599,841.7515,795,542.541,602,522.00

16,189,869.541,642,528.0716,118,626.921,635,300.2216,524,842.041,676,512.3916,571,171.481,681,212.71

16,787,880.601,703,198.7316,690,221.851,693,290.8517,394,979.981,764,791.4317,534,331.631,778,929.22

17,421,107.211,767,442.1417,290,885.481,754,230.6218,196,721.381,846,131.3518,596,889.361,886,730.02

18,092,639.911,835,571.8617,923,088.211,818,370.1519,075,082.791,935,244.6819,756,631.282,004,390.55

18,805,859.981,907,930.9418,589,521.631,885,982.5320,095,008.672,038,720.3121,315,920.772,162,586.81

19,567,381.791,985,190.4219,293,302.951,957,384.0121,094,789.122,140,152.1022,879,147.072,321,182.47

20,380,585.542,067,693.2520,038,092.672,032,945.9522,286,000.262,261,005.3124,794,261.792,515,478.64

21,249,473.332,155,845.4420,827,829.692,113,067.9823,532,886.032,387,506.9426,844,184.612,723,451.64

22,180,250.252,250,276.5521,667,937.722,198,300.3624,835,962.522,519,709.3528,880,735.122,930,067.97

23,180,390.872,351,744.8822,565,903.732,289,402.6626,271,232.232,665,323.3031,186,353.593,163,982.34

24,258,448.402,461,118.2023,526,928.852,386,902.5627,721,431.692,812,451.9333,508,241.753,399,547.33

25,424,572.952,579,426.2724,559,236.942,491,634.4129,655,268.393,008,647.5236,890,640.083,742,705.39

VERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICOVERTIMIENTO RESIDVERTIMIENTO ECONOMICO

13,782,0161,398,24213,782,016.391,398,241.5813,782,016.391,398,241.5813,782,016.391,398,241.58

14,270,456.321,447,795.8014,246,828.711,445,398.6814,270,239.101,447,773.7614,270,239.101,447,773.76

14,766,079.321,498,078.7714,731,371.051,494,557.4714,789,212.451,500,425.7214,790,571.501,500,563.60

15,290,238.811,551,256.8815,239,818.901,546,141.5715,434,959.891,565,939.4215,461,378.191,568,619.66

15,845,438.221,607,584.1215,774,195.601,600,356.2616,180,410.721,641,568.4416,226,740.161,646,268.75

16,432,665.661,667,160.7316,335,006.901,657,252.8517,039,765.041,728,753.4317,179,116.681,742,891.22

17,054,549.801,730,253.4016,924,328.071,717,041.8817,830,163.961,808,942.6118,230,331.951,849,541.28

17,714,133.191,797,170.8217,544,581.491,779,969.1118,696,576.061,896,843.6419,378,124.561,965,989.50

18,414,742.251,868,250.4518,198,403.901,846,302.0519,703,890.941,999,039.8320,924,803.042,122,906.32

19,162,928.401,944,156.9818,888,849.561,916,350.5720,690,335.732,099,118.6622,474,693.682,280,149.03

19,961,999.262,025,225.9719,619,506.381,990,478.6721,867,413.972,218,538.0324,375,675.502,473,011.36

20,815,872.912,111,854.9220,394,229.272,069,077.4623,099,285.612,343,516.4226,410,584.202,679,461.12

21,730,656.892,204,663.4721,218,344.362,152,687.2824,386,369.172,474,096.2828,431,141.762,884,454.90

22,713,712.022,304,398.4122,099,224.872,242,056.1925,804,553.372,617,976.8330,719,674.733,116,635.87

23,773,458.442,411,913.9923,041,938.882,337,698.3627,236,441.732,763,247.7233,023,251.793,350,343.13

24,919,890.212,528,224.1624,054,554.192,440,432.3029,150,585.652,957,445.4036,385,957.343,691,503.27

CONTAMINACION TOTAL KG/HORACONTAMINACION TOTAL KG/HORA

11,64911,649.3011,649.3011,649.30

12,188.3512,185.0812,188.3212,188.32

12,759.2712,754.2512,762.4112,762.59

13,364.8113,357.6513,384.4813,388.04

14,007.3413,997.3814,053.2514,059.70

14,689.1114,675.6814,770.6014,788.69

15,412.5315,394.9515,515.9615,566.93

16,180.1516,157.6916,307.9016,394.81

16,994.6916,966.5917,157.7217,309.77

17,859.0317,824.5118,048.9518,268.66

18,776.2218,734.4619,006.8619,309.47

19,749.5119,699.6520,019.9920,411.46

20,782.3320,723.5021,089.5621,558.24

21,878.3421,809.6122,226.5022,781.65

23,041.4222,961.8223,421.8724,059.54

24,275.6824,184.2324,724.3025,496.31

ORDENAMIENTO TERRITORIAL MED

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

GINIIDHGINIIDHGINIIDHGINIIDH

0.578.270.578.270.578.270.578.27

0.4978.460.578.410.4978.460.4978.46

0.4978.620.4978.540.4978.670.4978.67

0.4878.780.4978.680.4879.090.4779.15

0.4878.960.4878.810.4679.650.4679.74

0.4779.140.4878.950.4580.10.4580.26

0.4779.330.4879.080.4580.380.4480.82

0.4679.520.4779.210.4580.680.4481.41

0.4679.720.4779.330.4481.080.4382.25

0.4579.870.4679.450.4481.390.4282.85

0.4579.990.4679.570.4381.830.4183.62

0.4580.120.4679.690.4382.190.484.23

0.4580.250.4579.790.4282.470.484.75

0.4580.390.4579.860.4282.770.3985.26

0.4580.530.4579.920.4283.020.3885.68

0.4580.670.4579.980.4183.480.3786.34

0.450.450.410.37

80.6779.9883.4886.34

ORDENAMIENTO TERRITORIAL VA

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

OCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADO

INDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIAL

20043,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041.951.240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.003,311,940.009,935,820.008,831,840.005,519,900.0041,951,240.00

20053,801,050.2910,311,447.568,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,573.374,021,219.2610,278,632.398,880,555.535,532,078.8842.477.005.024,070,646.3510,282,088.148,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,558.954,003,777.6910,283,554.968,880,555.535,532,078.8842,478,558.95

20064,133,476.2410,648,299.248,935,735.835,545,873.9643,038,745.134,582,773.8410,394,880.238,935,735.835,545,873.9643.032.964.144,733,047.5510,498,590.438,935,735.835,545,873.9643,040,242.264,550,472.6010,558,115.668,935,735.835,545,873.9643,040,333.39

20074,418,244.7910,970,167.378,993,123.345,560,220.8443,632,455.075,054,988.0410,430,629.068,993,123.345,560,220.8443.620.464.265,330,775.5511,204,115.198,993,123.345,560,220.8443,645,646.755,349,134.9511,274,558.438,993,123.345,560,220.8443,647,636.65

20084,705,032.0111,300,221.269,052,806.365,575,141.5944,262,176.705,466,918.9110,451,955.579,052,806.365,575,141.5944.241.217.955,783,075.4211,862,490.369,052,806.365,575,141.5944,310,077.565,729,464.4411,918,174.309,052,806.365,575,141.5944,317,382.44

20094,993,825.2311,638,699.549,114,876.695,590,659.1744,930,377.825,815,935.9610,470,866.399,114,876.695,590,659.1744.896.844.396,211,647.8912,624,752.049,114,876.695,590,659.1745,047,370.756,038,848.0612,608,009.469,114,876.695,590,659.1745,068,110.36

20105,284,610.6711,985,848.359,179,429.845,606,797.4645,639,598.126,089,493.5510,673,036.419,179,429.845,606,797.4645.588.940.876,627,026.6513,105,047.189,179,429.845,606,797.4645,860,632.746,845,977.5313,119,871.419,179,429.845,606,797.4645,920,579.29

20115,577,373.4512,341,921.629,246,565.115,623,581.2846,392,539.196,285,607.2510,979,810.429,246,565.115,623,581.2846.319.163.646,928,806.4414,164,839.149,246,565.115,623,581.2846,746,992.547,660,965.0414,162,152.909,246,565.115,623,581.2846,887,824.25

20125,872,097.5412,707,181.369,316,385.805,641,036.4547,192,081.126,469,994.5911,311,582.749,316,385.805,641,036.4547.089.235.357,191,535.7515,153,481.809,316,385.805,641,036.4547,719,762.148,417,231.4815,467,550.599,316,385.805,641,036.4548,003,455.90

20136,168,765.6713,081,897.859,388,999.315,659,189.8348,041,397.736,646,405.6111,674,683.849,388,999.315,659,189.8347.900.917.407,431,186.5915,642,098.679,388,999.315,659,189.8348,786,073.898,992,525.8716,120,808.839,388,999.315,659,189.8349,299,006.07

20146,467,359.3513,466,350.009,464,517.365,678,069.3448,944,189.496,814,179.5412,072,181.909,464,517.365,678,069.3448.756.043.567,668,642.6815,944,532.069,464,517.365,678,069.3449,954,249.899,540,203.7116,754,424.969,464,517.365,678,069.3450,797,004.18

20156,767,858.8313,860,825.589,543,056.135,697,704.0349,904,007.376,977,564.7712,506,873.669,543,056.135,697,704.0349.656.485.397,874,160.3516,207,998.259,543,056.135,697,704.0351,239,938.2110,182,859.1317,138,299.049,543,056.135,697,704.0352,533,273.96

20167,070,243.0014,265,621.569,624,736.465,718,124.1150,924,571.207,129,188.1612,526,085.379,624,736.465,718,124.1150.604.153.928,065,200.2616,252,189.739,624,736.465,718,124.1152,646,568.2310,628,434.6617,407,994.329,624,736.465,718,124.1154,513,438.88

20177,374,489.4214,681,044.389,709,683.995,739,361.0052,009,893.797,272,379.0612,555,364.219,709,683.995,739,361.0051.601.293.038,229,582.3916,330,763.229,709,683.995,739,361.0054,182,227.8210,740,915.5417,580,706.499,709,683.995,739,361.0056,749,608.72

20187,680,574.2115,107,410.289,798,029.435,761,447.3653,164,288.857,414,960.6812,663,203.269,798,029.435,761,447.3652.650.172.958,415,355.7416,337,765.569,798,029.435,761,447.3655,851,842.8010,791,163.9217,641,330.269,798,029.435,761,447.3659,258,377.76

20197,988,472.0715,545,045.649,889,908.695,784,417.1754,392,398.257,556,500.4112,779,608.699,889,908.695,784,417.1753.753.056.448,622,554.5216,520,426.969,889,908.695,784,417.1757,682,399.5210,888,877.5617,814,947.069,889,908.695,784,417.1762,106,934.46

REQUERIMIENTOS4,676,532.075,609,225.644,244,560.412,843,788.695,310,614.526,584,606.967,576,937.567,879,127.06

3,311,9407,988,4727,556,5008,622,55510,888,878

9,935,82015,545,04612,779,60916,520,42717,814,947

8,831,8409,889,9099,889,9099,889,9099,889,909

5,519,9005,784,4175,784,4175,784,4175,784,417

41,951,24054,392,39853,753,05657,682,40062,106,934

Administrador:Asumiendo que la industria ocupa actualmente el 3% del territorio urbano (110 km2). FUENTE: Municipio

ECONMICO

BASEDEGRADATIVOALTO9000.3

OCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADOOCUPADO

INDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIALINDUSTRIACOMESPACIOEQUIPAMIENTOSRESIDENCIAL

200410,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.0010,894,530.0018,114,750.0015,924,830.009,670,950.0062,350,480.00

200511,523,475.6718,568,633.3116,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,505.8111,479,940.2218,347,519.6716,005,947.729,691,229.4363,225,895.1011,870,148.5518,533,157.3416,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,481.8011,784,162.3118,534,929.7516,005,947.729,691,229.4363,228,481.80

200611,950,941.3418,975,662.4216,097,711.679,714,170.4264,159,959.3412,095,383.7818,455,933.9716,097,711.679,714,170.4264,150,344.1012,721,928.5618,794,764.2716,097,711.679,714,170.4264,162,448.1212,487,155.9018,866,690.5916,097,711.679,714,170.4264,162,599.62

200712,317,124.5019,364,586.4016,193,025.269,737,998.8165,145,935.6912,611,350.3918,507,170.1816,193,025.269,737,998.8165,126,008.1113,490,545.4519,647,273.3516,193,025.269,737,998.8165,167,842.7413,514,153.7719,732,392.2716,193,025.269,737,998.8165,171,146.92

200812,685,903.4519,763,401.5216,292,033.339,762,750.8366,190,477.8513,026,066.2618,531,280.0716,292,033.339,762,750.8366,155,675.2614,072,156.7020,442,810.0216,292,033.339,762,750.8366,269,954.0914,003,218.4720,510,094.7816,292,033.339,762,750.8366,282,073.99

200913,057,261.9020,172,396.1116,394,886.609,788,464.1567,297,614.7913,378,443.9218,705,959.1816,394,886.609,788,464.1567,241,977.8014,623,256.9421,363,876.2216,394,886.609,788,464.1567,491,563.5414,401,054.0921,343,645.6016,394,886.609,788,464.1567,525,941.38

201013,431,182.1520,591,867.5816,501,741.879,815,177.9768,471,490.9713,687,181.6118,995,672.4616,501,741.879,815,177.9768,387,511.8115,157,391.4221,944,232.8416,501,741.879,815,177.9768,837,643.0415,438,939.8021,962,145.4616,501,741.879,815,177.9768,936,909.61

201113,807,645.0721,022,122.7916,612,762.279,842,933.0769,716,515.9913,964,005.5019,357,508.5516,612,762.279,842,933.0769,594,971.6215,545,449.2923,224,814.8016,612,762.279,842,933.0770,303,279.3016,486,930.1423,221,568.9316,612,762.279,842,933.0770,536,288.46

201214,186,630.0121,463,478.3116,728,117.589,871,771.9071,037,392.0814,210,908.3319,682,043.1116,728,117.589,871,771.9070,867,162.3815,883,292.2224,419,424.6716,728,117.589,871,771.9071,910,330.0417,459,411.2224,798,924.4716,728,117.589,871,771.9072,379,344.09

201314,568,114.8021,916,260.7316,847,984.449,901,738.6172,439,304.4214,429,591.3820,111,527.3116,847,984.449,901,738.6172,206,954.5516,191,458.6225,009,836.7316,847,984.449,901,738.6173,670,419.5218,199,180.8125,588,278.1716,847,984.449,901,738.6174,517,814.34

201414,952,075.6622,380,807.0816,972,546.679,932,879.1773,928,305.0014,621,681.9420,680,028.4916,972,546.679,932,879.1773,617,339.6916,496,802.8025,375,277.0716,972,546.679,932,879.1775,597,121.4218,903,438.3326,353,897.6616,972,546.679,932,879.1776,988,491.58

201515,338,487.1622,857,465.0817,101,995.579,965,241.3975,510,196.9514,788,736.0821,441,970.3317,101,995.579,965,241.3975,101,373.8516,761,077.4525,693,632.0617,101,995.579,965,241.3977,716,082.0019,729,827.2926,817,745.5117,101,995.579,965,241.3979,850,053.40

201615,727,322.2023,346,593.5617,236,530.229,998,875.0577,191,061.0014,932,241.3022,471,148.5417,236,530.229,998,875.0576,662,180.5717,006,735.1825,747,030.0917,236,530.229,998,875.0580,032,792.1620,302,791.7227,143,627.3117,236,530.229,998,875.0583,111,365.68

201716,118,551.8823,848,562.7917,376,357.8110,033,831.9578,977,460.4215,053,619.1323,398,016.1017,376,357.8110,033,831.9578,303,434.2417,218,113.7425,841,973.0617,376,357.8110,033,831.9582,560,425.6120,447,430.6027,352,321.1717,376,357.8110,033,831.9586,792,004.40

201816,512,145.5324,363,754.9217,521,693.9910,070,166.0080,876,454.2815,154,227.6324,441,819.6717,521,693.9910,070,166.0080,028,855.3317,456,999.2225,850,434.2217,521,693.9910,070,166.0085,306,960.4420,512,044.8627,425,574.9017,521,693.9910,070,166.0090,918,951.35

201916,908,070.6024,892,564.3217,672,763.2110,107,933.3082,895,642.6615,235,363.8124,826,000.4917,672,763.2110,107,933.3081,842,155.2317,723,435.6026,071,150.0817,672,763.2110,107,933.3088,316,653.0920,637,694.5827,635,361.8717,672,763.2110,107,933.3095,602,371.02

REQUERIMIENTOS6,013,540.606,777,814.321,747,933.21436,983.3020,545,162.664,340,833.816,711,250.491,747,933.21436,983.3019,491,675.236,828,905.607,956,400.081,747,933.21436,983.3025,966,173.099,743,164.589,520,611.871,747,933.21436,983.3033,251,891.02

16,908,07115,235,36417,723,43620,637,695

24,892,56424,826,00026,071,15027,635,362

17,672,76317,672,76317,672,76317,672,763

10,107,93310,107,93310,107,93310,107,933

82,895,64381,842,15588,316,65395,602,371

DEMANDAS

BASE

EXPORTACIONES ANUALESINGRESO PER CAPITACREC PIBDESEMPLEOGINIIDH

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,485.812,490.514.20.130.4978.46

20061,559.972,551.203.580.130.4978.62

20071,637.842,615.213.590.130.4878.78

20081,719.602,682.813.60.120.4878.96

20091,805.442,752.863.610.120.4779.140.470.480.450.44

20101,895.572,825.383.620.120.4779.3379.3379.0880.3880.82

20111,990.192,900.423.630.110.4679.5212%18%7%7%

20122,089.552,977.963.630.110.4679.72

20132,193.873,057.983.640.110.4579.87

20142,303.393,140.523.650.100.4579.99

20152,418.393,225.423.660.100.4580.12

20162,539.133,312.783.670.100.4580.25

20172,665.903,402.843.680.090.4580.39

20182,799.013,495.763.680.090.4580.53

20192,938.763,591.793.690.080.4580.67

ALTO

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,484.162,490.324.190.130.4978.46

20061,619.852,570.604.360.120.4978.67

20071,792.482,733.337.240.100.4879.09

20081,903.762,949.058.630.090.4679.65

20092,070.373,215.619.750.080.4580.1

20102,271.843,395.156.480.070.4580.38

20112,443.583,596.686.770.050.4580.68

20122,667.193,859.928.090.030.4481.08

20132,933.484,068.556.360.030.4481.39

20143,259.794,359.917.930.030.4381.83

20153,610.504,637.207.170.030.4382.19

20163,997.604,897.196.510.040.4282.47

20174,387.595,180.466.640.050.4282.77

20184,859.385,413.345.380.060.4283.02

20195,418.555,845.278.670.060.4183.48

DEGRADATIVO

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,414.152,470.163.380.130.578.41

20061,493.972,522.133.260.140.4978.54

20071,573.792,574.153.150.150.4978.68

20081,653.602,626.423.060.160.4878.81

20091,733.422,677.792.970.170.4878.95

20101,813.242,728.222.880.180.4879.08

20111,893.052,777.712.80.190.4779.21

20121,972.872,826.182.720.190.4779.33

20132,052.692,873.572.650.200.4679.45

20142,132.502,919.862.580.210.4679.57

20152,212.322,964.832.520.210.4679.69

20162,292.143,008.542.460.210.4579.79

20172,371.953,051.162.40.210.4579.86

20182,451.773,092.762.340.220.4579.92

20192,531.593,133.482.290.220.4579.98

9000.3

20041,334.332,415.9400.140.578.27

20051,484.162,490.324.190.130.4978.46

20061,627.812,571.744.40.130.4978.67

20071,949.652,754.937.990.10.4779.15

20082,155.242,986.029.090.10.4679.74

20092,460.783,320.4111.760.090.4580.26

20102,790.303,687.2511.620.070.4480.82

20113,295.514,079.2711.220.040.4481.41

20123,825.014,698.1115.3400.4382.25

20134,439.715,254.2312.43-0.010.4282.85

20145,150.285,973.0414-0.010.4183.62

20155,900.806,694.6312.51-0.020.484.23

20166,739.517,322.9810.1-0.010.484.75

20177,455.768,024.4910.280.010.3985.26

20188,185.628,640.138.450.030.3885.68

20199,114.719,730.7113.020.040.3786.34

ESCENARIO DEGRADATIVOESCENARIO BASEESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO 9000.3ESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO ALTOESCENARIO ALTO

AO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHAO1. DESEMPLEO2. EXPORTACIONES ANUALES US3. PIB PER CAPITA US4. GINI5. IDHMESES1. SUELO INDUSTRIAL DESTINADO POR EL POT INDUSTRIADEMANDA INDUSTRIA MEDELLNPOT RESIDENCIALDEMANDA RESIDENCIAL MEDELLNPOT COMERCIODEMANDA COMERCIO MEDELLNEPSARSSISBENAFILIADAS A OTROSIN AFILIACINPERSONAS CON PRIMARIADEMANDA PRIMARIAPERSONAS CON SECUNDARIADEMANDA SECUNDARIAPERSONAS CON SUPERIORDEMANDA SUPERIORRS RESIDENCIALESRS ACT. ECONMICACONTAMINACIN TOTAL KG/HORACONSUMO DE AGUA RESIDENCIALCONSUMO DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICADESECHOS DE AGUA RESIDENCIALDESECHOS DE AGUA ACT. ECONMICADEMANDA DE VIAJES TRANSPORTE PBLICODEMANDA DE VIAJES TAXIDEMANDA DE VIAJES MOTOCICLETADEMANDA DE VIAJES PARTICULAR

20040.141,334.332,415.940.5078.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.5078.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.578.2720040.141,334.332,415.940.578.2703,254,049.623,254,049.6241,217,961.8733,493,454.509,762,148.869,762,148.8633%2%51%17%9%2,027,265.901,519,422.121,039,443.68615,012.46163,713.00162,119.4456,005.4218,879.5311,649.3013,435,004.771,363,035.8413,144,162.271,333,528.6939,934,468.806,133,760.404,211,568.6015,118,521.60

20050.131,414.152,470.160.5078.4120050.131,485.812,490.510.4978.4620050.131,484.162,490.320.4978.4620050.131,484.162,490.320.4978.46123,254,049.623,806,772.6241,217,961.8734,715,573.189,762,148.8610,092,210.4034%2%49%17%9%2,051,388.851,546,071.061,064,406.96636,506.07174,869.30169,981.6956,973.3619,498.4311,667.7913,869,397.711,407,106.7713,571,307.041,376,864.2640,227,471.496,213,729.354,216,003.8115,486,615.13

20060.141,493.972,522.130.4978.5420060.131,559.9