ArtimticoAmpliacin Y Mejoramiento Del Sistema De Agua Potable Y Alcantarillado En Villanueva-Pucacaca-Chincha Alta-Shimbillo-Nuevo Codo-Santa Rosillo-San Antonio-Nueva Unin-Winge-Caspizapa-Puerto Rico Y San Hilarin, Provincia De Picota-San MartinA. CALCULO POBLACIONAL INTEGRAL PICOTACURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL: METODO ARITMETICOCurva de mnimos cuadrados:Seleccin de la curva de mejor comportamiento histrico:Seleccin de las curvas para el grafico:LOCALIDADES DE PICOTA, CASPISAPA,SAN CRISTOBAL, SAN HILARION Y PUCACACAAoxx.xyx.y2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaTasaCurva2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,0071,972-3512259,191-32168518,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo18,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,5731.0 Ecuacin del Mtodo Aritmtico1,981-2667610,596-27549618,57314,15610,3717,5323,2941.70Pf118,57314,15610,3717,5323,294Pf1Pf17,53210,37114,15618,5731,993-1419615,566-21792418,5739,9852,623-2,89725,6423.30Pf218,5739,9852,623-2,89725,642Pf2Pf2-2,8972,6239,98518,573Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )2,0070018,573018,57310,9894,489-38520,2602.92Pf318,57310,9894,489-38520,260Pf3Pf3-3854,48910,98918,573-752,097-815,10518,5738,410-301-6,83534,0793.91Pf418,5738,410-301-6,83534,079Pf4Pf4-6,835-3018,41018,573Pf : Poblacin al tiempo "t", en habitantes.18,57311,0444,591-24819,9662.90Pf518,57311,0444,591-24819,966Pf5Pf5-2484,59111,04418,573Po : Poblacin del ao base o ltimo censo, en habitantes.r =1.48371217218,57314,98511,9109,6032,3071.38Pf618,57314,98511,9109,6032,307Pf6Pf69,60311,91014,98518,573r : Tasa de crecimiento poblacional, en tanto por uno y por ao.18,57310,8724,272-67720,8862.96Pf718,57310,8724,272-67720,886Pf7Pf7-6774,27210,87218,573t : Tiempo en el que se desea estimar la poblacin y es cero para el ao base, en aos.18,57311,8446,0771,75115,6812.59Pf818,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf8Pf81,7516,07711,84418,57318,57311,9856,3382,10314,9272.53Pf918,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Pf9Pf92,1036,33811,98518,57318,57311,9506,2742,01615,1132.55Pf1018,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf10Pf102,0166,27411,95018,5732.0 Datos de Poblacin Censal y estudio socioeconomico18,57312,5187,3273,43412,0742.33Pf1118,57312,5187,3273,43412,074Pf11Pf113,4347,32712,51818,57318,57314,71511,4088,9281,9261.48Pf1218,57314,71511,4088,9281,926Pf12Pf128,92811,40814,71518,573Censo y estudio socioeconomicoPoblacin Distrito Picota(ao)(habitantes)Curva seleccionada:Pf12Curva 1 =Pf121,9729,1919191Tasa seleccionada:1.481,98110,596105962,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,0071,99315,5661556618,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,5732,00718,5731857318,57314,15610,3717,5323,294Pf1Pf12892811408147151857318,5739,9852,623-2,89725,642Pf2Pf6960311910149851857318,57310,9894,489-38520,260Pf3Pf175321037114156185733.0 Combinaciones de Dos Censos y estudio socioeconomico18,5738,410-301-6,83534,079Pf4Pf1134347327125181857318,57311,0444,591-24819,966Pf5Pf9210363381198518573CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Tasa (%/ao)18,57314,98511,9109,6032,307Pf6Pf11,9721,9811.7018,57310,8724,272-67720,886Pf7Pf21,9721,9933.3018,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf8Pf31,9722,0072.9218,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Pf9CurvaCensoPf12Pf6Pf1Pf11Pf9Pf41,9811,9933.9118,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf101,9729.1918.9289.6037.5323.4342.103Pf51,9812,0072.9018,57312,5187,3273,43412,074Pf111,98110.59611.40811.91010.3717.3276.338Pf61,9932,0071.3818,57314,71511,4088,92874,292Pf121,99315.56614.71514.98514.15612.51811.9852,00718.57318.57318.57318.57318.57318.573Curva 2 =Pf64.0 Combinaciones de Tres Censos y estudio socieconomicos2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Tasa (%/ao)18,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoPf71,9721,9811,9932.9618,57314,15610,3717,5323,294Pf1Pf81,9721,9812,0072.5918,5739,9852,623-2,89725,642Pf2Pf91,9721,9932,0072.5318,57310,9894,489-38520,260Pf3Pf101,9811,9932,0072.5518,5738,410-301-6,83534,079Pf418,57311,0444,591-24819,966Pf518,57314,98511,9109,60374,292Pf65.0 Combinacin de Cuatro Censos y estudio socioeconomico18,57310,8724,272-67720,886Pf718,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf8CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Censo 4Tasa (%/ao)18,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Pf9Pf111,9721,9811,9932,0072.3318,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf1018,57312,5187,3273,43412,074Pf1118,57314,71511,4088,92874,292Pf126.0 Combinacin de Cuatro Censos y estudio socioeconomico(curva de mnimos cuadrados)Curva 3 =Pf1CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Censo 4Tasa (%/ao)Pf121,9721,9811,9932,0071.482,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurva18,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo7.0 Seleccin de la Curva de Mejor Comportamiento Histrico18,57314,15610,3717,53274,292Pf118,5739,9852,623-2,89725,642Pf2CurvaPoblacin Histrica para los Aos CensalesDiferencias18,57310,9894,489-38520,260Pf32,0071,9931,9811,97218,5738,410-301-6,83534,079Pf4Censo18,57315,56610,5969,191018,57311,0444,591-24819,966Pf5Pf118,57314,15610,3717,5323,29418,57314,98511,9109,60374,292Pf6Pf218,5739,9852,623-2,89725,64218,57310,8724,272-67720,886Pf7Pf318,57310,9894,489-38520,26018,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf8Pf418,5738,410-301-6,83534,07918,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Pf9Pf518,57311,0444,591-24819,96618,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf10Pf618,57314,98511,9109,6032,30718,57312,5187,3273,43412,074Pf11Pf718,57310,8724,272-67720,88618,57314,71511,4088,92874,292Pf12Pf818,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf918,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Curva 4 =Pf11Pf1018,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf1118,57312,5187,3273,43412,0742,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaPf1218,57314,71511,4088,9281,92618,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo18,57314,15610,3717,53274,292Pf1Curva seleccionadaPf =Pf1218,5739,9852,623-2,89725,642Pf2Poblacin de ao basePo =18,573habitantes18,57310,9894,489-38520,260Pf3Tasa de crecimientor =1.48%/ao18,5738,410-301-6,83534,079Pf418,57311,0444,591-24819,966Pf518,57314,98511,9109,60374,292Pf68.0 Grfico de Curvas de Mejor Comportamiento Histrico18,57310,8724,272-67720,886Pf718,57311,8446,0771,75115,681Pf818,57311,9856,3382,10314,927Pf918,57311,9506,2742,01615,113Pf1018,57312,5187,3273,43474,292Pf1118,57314,71511,4088,92874,292Pf12Curva 5 =Pf9

Artimtico

CensoPf12Pf6Pf1Pf11Pf9AosMiles de hab.

GeomtricoAmpliacin Y Mejoramiento Del Sistema De Agua Potable Y Alcantarillado En Villanueva-Pucacaca-Chincha Alta-Shimbillo-Nuevo Codo-Santa Rosillo-San Antonio-Nueva Unin-Winge-Caspizapa-Puerto Rico Y San Hilarin, Provincia De Picota-San MartinCURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL: METODO GEOMETRICOCurva de mnimos cuadrados:Seleccin de la curva de mejor comportamiento histrico:Seleccin de las curvas para el grafico:LOCALIDADES DE PICOTA, CASPISAPA,SAN CRISTOBAL, SAN HILARION Y PUCACACAAoxx.xyx.y2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaTasaCurva2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,0071,972-3512253.963363-138.717697Censo18,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo18,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,5731.0 Ecuacin del Mtodo Geomtrico1,981-266764.025142-104.653691Pf118,57314,88612,31410,6813,8881.59Pf118,57314,88612,31410,6813,888Pf1Pf110,68112,31414,88618,5731,993-141964.192177-58.690478Pf218,57313,0729,6747,7184,8892.54Pf218,57313,0729,6747,7184,889Pf2Pf27,7189,67413,07218,573Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) t2,007004.2688820.000000Pf318,57314,01811,0139,1911,9652.03Pf318,57314,01811,0139,1911,965Pf3Pf39,19111,01314,01818,573-752,097-302.061866Pf418,57311,8588,0726,0499,3743.26Pf418,57311,8588,0726,0499,374Pf4Pf46,0498,07211,85818,573Pf : Poblacin al tiempo "t", en habitantes.Pf518,57313,72910,5968,7252,3032.18Pf518,57313,72910,5968,7252,303Pf5Pf58,72510,59613,72918,573Po : Poblacin del ao base o ltimo censo, en habitantes.log(1+r) =0.0086334232Pf618,57315,56613,37911,9435,5351.27Pf618,57315,56613,37911,9435,535Pf6Pf611,94313,37915,56618,573r : Tasa de crecimiento poblacional, en tanto por uno.r =2.01Pf718,57313,33010,0328,1063,8852.40Pf718,57313,33010,0328,1063,885Pf7Pf78,10610,03213,33018,573t : Tiempo en el que se desea estimar la poblacin y es cero para el ao base, en aos.Pf818,57314,05211,0649,2472,0382.01Pf818,57314,05211,0649,2472,038Pf8Pf89,24711,06414,05218,573Pf918,57314,22211,3139,5292,3991.92Pf918,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Pf9Pf99,52911,31314,22218,573Pf1018,57314,15111,2099,4122,2491.96Pf1018,57314,15111,2099,4122,249Pf10Pf109,41211,20914,15118,5732.0 Datos de Poblacin CensalPf1118,57314,35111,5059,7482,6811.86Pf1118,57314,35111,5059,7482,681Pf11Pf119,74811,50514,35118,573Pf1218,57314,06111,0779,2622,0572.01Pf1218,57314,06111,0779,2622,057Pf12Pf129,26211,07714,06118,573CensoPoblacin(ao)(habitantes)Curva seleccionada:Pf3Curva 1 =Pf31,9729,191Tasa seleccionada:2.031,98110,5962,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,0071,99315,56618,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,5732,00718,57318,57314,88612,31410,6813,888Pf1Pf3919111013140181857318,57313,0729,6747,7184,889Pf2Pf8924711064140521857318,57314,01811,0139,19174,292Pf3Pf1292621107714061185733.0 Combinaciones de Dos Censos18,57311,8588,0726,0499,374Pf4Pf10941211209141511857318,57313,72910,5968,7252,303Pf5Pf58725105961372918573CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Tasa (%)18,57315,56613,37911,9435,535Pf6Pf11,9721,9811.5918,57313,33010,0328,1063,885Pf7Pf21,9721,9932.5418,57314,05211,0649,2472,038Pf8Pf31,9722,0072.0318,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Pf9CurvaCensoPf3Pf8Pf12Pf10Pf5Pf41,9811,9933.2618,57314,15111,2099,4122,249Pf101,9729.1919.1919.2479.2629.4128.725Pf51,9812,0072.1818,57314,35111,5059,7482,681Pf111,98110.59611.01311.06411.07711.20910.596Pf61,9932,0071.2718,57314,06111,0779,2622,057Pf121,99315.56614.01814.05214.06114.15113.7292,00718.57318.57318.57318.57318.57318.573Curva 2 =Pf84.0 Combinaciones de Tres Censos2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Tasa (%)18,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoPf71,9721,9811,9932.4018,57314,88612,31410,6813,888Pf1Pf81,9721,9812,0072.0118,57313,0729,6747,7184,889Pf2Pf91,9721,9932,0071.9218,57314,01811,0139,19174,292Pf3Pf101,9811,9932,0071.9618,57311,8588,0726,0499,374Pf418,57313,72910,5968,7252,303Pf518,57315,56613,37911,9435,535Pf65.0 Combinacin de Cuatro Censos18,57313,33010,0328,1063,885Pf718,57314,05211,0649,24774,292Pf8CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Censo 4Tasa (%)18,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Pf9Pf111,9721,9811,9932,0071.8618,57314,15111,2099,4122,249Pf1018,57314,35111,5059,7482,681Pf1118,57314,06111,0779,2622,057Pf126.0 Combinacin de Cuatro Censos (curva de mnimos cuadrados)Curva 3 =Pf12CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Censo 4Tasa (%)Pf121,9721,9811,9932,0072.012,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurva18,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo7.0 Seleccin de la Curva de Mejor Comportamiento Histrico18,57314,88612,31410,6813,888Pf118,57313,0729,6747,7184,889Pf2CurvaPoblacin Histrica para los Aos CensalesDiferencias18,57314,01811,0139,19174,292Pf32,0071,9931,9811,97218,57311,8588,0726,0499,374Pf4Censo18,57315,56610,5969,191018,57313,72910,5968,7252,303Pf5Pf118,57314,88612,31410,6813,88818,57315,56613,37911,9435,535Pf6Pf218,57313,0729,6747,7184,88918,57313,33010,0328,1063,885Pf7Pf318,57314,01811,0139,1911,96518,57314,05211,0649,24774,292Pf8Pf418,57311,8588,0726,0499,37418,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Pf9Pf518,57313,72910,5968,7252,30318,57314,15111,2099,4122,249Pf10Pf618,57315,56613,37911,9435,53518,57314,35111,5059,7482,681Pf11Pf718,57313,33010,0328,1063,88518,57314,06111,0779,26274,292Pf12Pf818,57314,05211,0649,2472,038Pf918,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Curva 4 =Pf10Pf1018,57314,15111,2099,4122,249Pf1118,57314,35111,5059,7482,6812,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaPf1218,57314,06111,0779,2622,05718,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo18,57314,88612,31410,6813,888Pf1Curva seleccionadaPf =Pf318,57313,0729,6747,7184,889Pf2Poblacin de ao basePo =18,573habitantes18,57314,01811,0139,19174,292Pf3Tasa de crecimientor =2.03%18,57311,8588,0726,0499,374Pf418,57313,72910,5968,7252,303Pf58.0 Grfico de Curvas de Mejor Comportamiento Histrico18,57313,33010,0328,1063,885Pf718,57314,05211,0649,24774,292Pf818,57314,22211,3139,5292,399Pf918,57314,15111,2099,41274,292Pf1018,57314,35111,5059,7482,681Pf1118,57314,06111,0779,26274,292Pf12Curva 5 =Pf5

Geomtrico

CensoPf3Pf8Pf12Pf10Pf5AosMiles de hab.

ParablicoAmpliacin Y Mejoramiento Del Sistema De Agua Potable Y Alcantarillado En Villanueva-Pucacaca-Chincha Alta-Shimbillo-Nuevo Codo-Santa Rosillo-San Antonio-Nueva Unin-Winge-Caspizapa-Puerto Rico Y San Hilarin, Provincia De Picota-San MartinCURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL: METODO PARABOLICOCurva Pf1:Curva de mnimos cuadrados:Seleccin de la curva de mejor comportamiento histrico:Seleccin de las curvas para el grfico:LOCALIDADES DE PICOTA, CASPISAPA,SAN CRISTOBAL, SAN HILARION Y PUCACACAAott2PfAott2t3t4PfPf.tPf.t22,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaABCCurva2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,0071,972-35122591911,972-351,225-42,8751,500,6259,191-321,68511,258,97518,57315,56610,5969,1910000Censo18,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,5731.0 Ecuacin del Mtodo Parablico1,981-26676105961,981-26676-17,576456,97610,596-275,4967,162,89618,5738,3023,3321,92721,79218,573.0905.7012.288Pf118,5738,3023,3321,927-21,792Pf1Pf11,9273,3328,30218,5731,993-14196155661,993-14196-2,74438,41615,566-217,9243,050,93618,57313,55410,5969,1912,01218,573.0418.754.306Pf218,57313,55410,5969,191-2,012Pf2Pf29,19110,59613,55418,573Pf = A + B t + C t 22,007000018,5730018,57315,56612,1979,1911,60118,573.0179.27-2.537Pf318,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf3Pf39,19112,19715,56618,573-211029-6,375-752,097-63,1951,996,017-815,10521,472,80718,57315,56610,5965,4193,77218,573.0107.43-7.668Pf418,57315,56610,5965,419-3,772Pf4Pf45,41910,59615,56618,573Pf : Poblacin al tiempo "t", en habitantes.-12480-4,97018,57314,86311,4798,81619518,573.0255.78-0.657Pf518,57314,86311,4798,816-195Pf5Pf58,81611,47914,86318,573A : Constante de poblacin, en habitantes.A =18,573B : Constante de poblacin, en habitantes/ao.-49303.5714285714Curva seleccionadaPf5Curva 1 =Pf1C : Constante de poblacin, en habitantes/ao2.-40414.16666666672,097-63,195577870Constante de poblacin (A)18573t : Tiempo en el que se desea estimar la poblacin y es cero para el ao base o ltimo-63,1951,996,017-17474774Constante de poblacin (B)255.78055110132,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurvaCurva1,9721,9811,9932,007censo, en aos.-9-110.5952380952Constante de poblacin (C)-0.656668792518,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoCenso9,19110,59615,56618,573-30.1359084406275.569861707218,5738,3023,3321,92774,292Pf1Pf119273332830218573C =12.2883597884-31.5850462853276.521465305818,57313,55410,5969,191-2,012Pf2Pf454191059615566185732.0 Datos de Poblacin CensalB =905.701058201118,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf3Pf29191105961355418573-7,264A =25837.2962962963-7,2641.4491378447-0.951603598618,57315,56610,5965,419-3,772Pf4Pf58816114791486318573CensoPoblacinA* =18,57318,57314,86311,4798,816-195Pf5Pf39191121971556618573(ao)(habitantes)C =-0.65666879251,9729,191Curva Pf2:B =255.7805511013Curva 2 =Pf41,98110,596CurvaCensoPf5Pf2Pf1Pf3Pf41,99315,566Aott2Pf2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurva1,9729.1918.8169.1911.9279.1915.4192,00718,5731,972-351225919118,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo1,98110.59611.47910.5963.33212.19710.5961,981-266761059618,5738,3023,3321,92774,292Pf11,99315.56614.86313.5548.30215.56615.5662,007001857318,57313,55410,5969,191-2,012Pf22,00718.57318.57318.57318.57318.57318.5733.0 Combinaciones de Tres Censos18,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf3-351225-9,38218,57315,56610,5965,41974,292Pf411972 -1981- 1993-26676-7,97718,57314,86311,4798,816-195Pf5Aott2Pf-35268.0571428571Curva 3 =Pf21972-3512259191-26306.80769230771981-26676105962,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurva1993-1419615566-9-38.750549450518,57315,56610,5969,1910Censo18,5738,3023,3321,92774,292Pf1A +(-35) x B +1225 CA =25837.30C =4.305616605618,57313,55410,5969,19174,292Pf2A +(-26) x B +676 CB =905.70B =418.753724053718,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf3A +(-14) x B +196 CC =12.29A =18573018,57315,56610,5965,41974,292Pf418,57314,86311,4798,816-195Pf5Pf*1 =25,837.30 + 905.70 t + 12.29 t^2Pf (t=0) =1437.39Curva Pf3:Curva 4 =Pf5Pero:Pf (1981) =18993Diferencia:Pf (1981) - Pf (t=0) =-7264.30Aott2Pf2,0071,9931,9811,972DiferenciaCurva1,972-351225919118,57315,56610,5969,1910CensoPf1 =18,573.00 + 905.70 t + 12.29 t^21,993-141961556618,5738,3023,3321,92774,292Pf12,007001857318,57313,55410,5969,19174,292Pf218,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf3-351225-9,38218,57315,56610,5965,41974,292Pf421972 -1981- 2007-14196-3,00718,57314,86311,4798,81674,292Pf5Aott2Pf-35268.0571428571Curva 5 =Pf31972-3512259191-14214.78571428571981-266761059620070018573-2153.2714285714A +(-35) x B +1225 CA =18573.00C =-2.5367346939A +(-26) x B +676 CB =418.75B =179.2714285714A +(0) x B +0 CC =4.31A =185730Pf*2 =18,573.00 + 418.75 t + 4.31 t^2Pf (t=0) =1437.39Curva Pf4:Pero:Pf (1981) =18993Diferencia:Pf (1981) - Pf (t=0) =0.00Aott2Pf1,981-2667610596Pf2 =18,573.00 + 418.75 t + 4.31 t^21,993-14196155662,0070018573-26676-7,97731972 -1993- 2007-14196-3,007Aott2Pf-26306.80769230771972-3512259191-14214.78571428571993-141961556620070018573-1292.021978022A +(-35) x B +1225 CA =18573.00C =-7.6684981685A +(-14) x B +196 CB =179.27B =107.4267399267A +(0) x B +0 CC =-2.54A =185730Pf*3 =18,573.00 + 179.27 t + -2.54 t^2Pf (t=0) =1437.39Pero:Pf (1981) =18993Diferencia:Pf (1981) - Pf (t=0) =0.00Pf3 =18,573.00 + 179.27 t + -2.54 t^241981 -1993- 2007Aott2Pf1981-26676105961993-141961556620070018573A +(-26) x B +676 CA =18573.00A +(-14) x B +196 CB =107.43A +(0) x B +0 CC =-7.67Pf*4 =18,573.00 + 107.43 t + -7.67 t^2Pf (t=0) =1437.39Pero:Pf (1981) =18993Diferencia:Pf (1981) - Pf (t=0) =0.00Pf4 =18,573.00 + 107.43 t + -7.67 t^24.0 Combinacin de Cuatro Censos (curva de mnimos cuadrados)CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3Censo 4Pf51,9721,9811,9932,007CurvaCenso 1Censo 2Censo 3ConstanteValorPf11,9721,9811,993A =18,573.0Curva de mnimos cuadrados:B =905.70C =12.288Aott2t3t4PfPf.tPf.t2Pf21,9721,9812,007A =18,573.01972-351225-4287515006259191-32168511258975B =418.751981-26676-1757645697610596-2754967162896C =4.3061993-14196-27443841615566-2179243050936Pf31,9721,9932,007A =18,573.0200700001857300B =179.27-752097-6319519960170-81510521472807C =-2.537Pf41,9811,9932,007A =18,573.0B =107.43ConstanteValorC =-7.668A =18,573.0B =255.78C =-0.657Pf5 =18,573.00 + 255.78 t + -0.66 t^25.0 Seleccin de la Curva de Mejor Comportamiento HistricoCurvaPoblacin Histrica para los Aos CensalesDiferencias2,0071,9931,9811,972Censo18,57315,56610,5969,1910Pf118,5738,3023,3321,927-21,792Pf218,57313,55410,5969,191-2,012Pf318,57315,56612,1979,1911,601Pf418,57315,56610,5965,419-3,772Pf518,57314,86311,4798,816-195Curva seleccionadaPf =Pf5Constante de poblacin (A)A =18,573.0habitantesConstante de poblacin (B)B =255.78habitantes/aoConstante de poblacin (C)C =-0.657habitantes/ao2Pf =18,573.00 + 255.78 t + -0.66 t^26.0 Grfico de Curvas de Mejor Comportamiento Histrico

Parablico

CensoPf1Pf2Pf3Pf4Pf5AosMiles de hab.

Tasa ReferencialAmpliacin Y Mejoramiento Del Sistema De Agua Potable Y Alcantarillado En Villanueva-Pucacaca-Chincha Alta-Shimbillo-Nuevo Codo-Santa Rosillo-San Antonio-Nueva Unin-Winge-Caspizapa-Puerto Rico Y San Hilarin, Provincia De Picota-San MartinSELECCIN DE CURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL: TASA REFERENCIALSeleccin de curva de crecimiento poblacional:Grafico de las curvas:Proyeccin poblacional:LOCALIDADES DE PICOTA, CASPISAPA,SAN CRISTOBAL, SAN HILARION Y PUCACACAAoAritmticaGeomtricaParablicaTasa Refer.Dif. Aritm.Dif. Geom.Dif. Parab.DiferenciaCurvaAosAritmticoGeomtricoParablicoTasa ReferencialAoAritmticoGeomtricoParablico200718573185731857318573000207510Curva del Mtodo Aritmtico2200718.57318.57318.57318.5732,01420,50221,37920,3311.0 Curva del Mtodo Aritmtico2008188491895018828190241757419678410Curva del Mtodo Geomtrico3201219.95120.53719.83520.9422,01520,77821,81320,577200919124193351908219487363152405229773Curva del Mtodo Parablico4201721.32922.70821.06523.6132,01621,05322,25620,822Ecuacin del mtodo aritmticoPf =Po ( 1 + r t )201019400197271933419960560233626202222.70725.10822.26226.6252,01721,32922,70821,065201119675201281958620445770317859Curva seleccionada:Curva del Mtodo Geomtrico202724.08427.76323.42630.0212,01821,60423,16921,307Poblacin del ao basePo =18,573habitantes20121995120537198352094299140511073203225.46230.69824.55733.8502,01921,88023,63921,548Tasa de crecimientor =1.48%/ao20132022620954200842145112254971367203726.84033.94325.65538.1682,02022,15524,11921,787Ao baset = 0, en2,00720142050221379203312197214705931641204228.21837.53226.72143.0362,02122,43124,60922,025201520778218132057722506172869319292,02222,70725,10822,262201621053222562082223053200079722312,02322,98225,61822,4972.0 Curva del Mtodo Geomtrico201721329227082106523613228490525482,02423,25826,13822,7312018216042316921307241872583101828802,02523,53326,66922,964Ecuacin del mtodo geomtricoPf =Po ( 1 + r ) t2019218802363921548247752895113632272,02623,80927,21023,1962020221552411921787253773222125835902,02724,08427,76323,426Poblacin del ao basePo =18,573habitantes2021224312460922025259933562138439682,02824,36028,32723,655Tasa de crecimientor =2.03%2022227072510822262266253918151743632,02924,63628,90223,882Ao baset = 0, en2,0072023229822561822497272724290165447752,03024,91129,48824,1092024232582613822731279354677179752042,03125,18730,08724,3332025235332666922964286145081194556502,03225,46230,69824,5573.0 Curva del Mtodo Parablico2026238092721023196293095500209961132,03325,73831,32124,779202724084277632342630021593722586595Ecuacin del mtodo parablicoPf =A + B t + C t 2202824360283272365530751639124247096202924636289022388231498686225967616Constante de poblacinA =18,573.0hab.203024911294882410932263735227758154Constante de poblacinB =255.78hab./ao203125187300872433333047786029608714Constante de poblacinC =-0.657hab./ao2203225462306982455733850838831529293Ao baset = 0, en2,0072033257383132124779346738935335298942034260133195725000355159502355810515203526289326062522036378100893772111584.0 Datos de la Curva de Tasa Refencial20362656533268254383726210697399411824CensoPoblacin20372684033943256553816811328422512513Curva de la tasa referencialPf =Po ( 1 + r ) t(ao)(habitantes)2038271163463325871390951197944621322420392739135336260864004512654470913959Poblacin del ao basePo =18,573habitantes20402766736053262994101813351496514719Ao baset = 0, en2,007199326,95520412794236785265104201514073523015505200737,72120422821837532267214303614818550416315Tasa referencial Incremento Intercensal Provincia (Censo 1993-2007)r =2.43%20751078410229773Tasa de crecimiento demogrfico de Chincheros2.435.0 Proyeccin de Poblacin FuturaCurvaAritmticaGeomtricaParablicaTasa ReferencialAos2,00718,57318,57318,57318,5732,01219,95120,53719,83520,9422,01721,32922,70821,06523,6132,02222,70725,10822,26226,625^2,02724,08427,76323,42630,0212,03225,46230,69824,55733,8502,03726,84033,94325,65538,1682,04228,21837,53226,72143,0366.0 Determinacin de la Curva de Crecimiento PoblacionalCurva seleccionada:Curva del Mtodo Geomtrico7.0 Grafico de las Curvas con Proyeccin de Poblacin FuturaNota: Para el presente proyecto se ha tomado la curva del Metodo Geometrico y la tasa de crecimiento de cada localidadPERFIL APROBADODISTRITOPOBLACION 1972POBLACION 1981POBLACION 1993POBLACION 2007Metodo CalculadoDISTRITOSMetodo Seleccionado ExpedienteTasa de crecimiento Seleccionado(%)Tasa de crecimiento (%)Metodo Seleccionado ExpedientePICOTA3,9954,4097,2218,164Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoPICOTA, VILLA NUEVA Y WINGECurva del Mtodo Geomtrico0.002.13%Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoCASPISAPA1,0731,1141,4961,916Curva del Mtodo ParablicoCASPISAPA, SAN ANTONIO, NUEVO CODOCurva del Mtodo Geomtrico1.782.89%Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoSAN CRISTOBAL8229051,0201,286Curva del Mtodo ParablicoSAN CRISTOBAL DE PUERTO RICOCurva del Mtodo Geomtrico1.361.67%Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoSAN HILARION8031,2772,5344,355Curva del Mtodo AritmticoSAN HILARIONCurva del Mtodo Geomtrico4.835.17%Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoPUCACACA2,4982,8913,2952,852PUCACACA, CHINCHA ALTA, SHIMBILLO Y NUEVO CODOCurva del Mtodo Geomtrico0.00-0.01%Curva del Mtodo GeomtricoINTEGRAL9,19110,59615,56618,573Curva del Mtodo Geomtrico

Tasa Referencial

AritmticoGeomtricoParablicoTasa ReferencialAosMiles de hab.