informe de cambio climáticos ipcc – 4 parte objetivos: dr. willy h. gerber instituto de fisica...

Informe de Cambio ClimáticosIPCC – 4 Parte

Objetivos:

Dr. Willy H. GerberInstituto de Fisica

Universidad AustralValdivia, Chile

Comprender y aplicar los conceptos de camino, velocidad y aceleración.

www.gphysics.net – UACH-Cambio-Climatico-3-Version 12.08

Nivel del mar

The A1 storyline is a case of rapid and successful economic development, in which regional average income per capita converge - current distinctions between "poor" and "rich" countries eventually dissolve.

A2Its characterized by lower trade flows, relatively slow capital stock turnover, and slower technological change. The A2 world "consolidates" into a series of economic regions. Self-reliance in terms of resources and less emphasis on economic, social, and cultural interactions between regions are characteristic for this future. Economic growth is uneven and the income gap between now-industrialized and developing parts of the world does not narrow.

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B1The central elements of the B1 future are a high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Heightened environmental consciousness might be brought about by clear evidence that impacts of natural resource use, such as deforestation, soil depletion, over-fishing, and global and regional pollution, pose a serious threat to the continuation of human life on Earth. In the B1 storyline, governments, businesses, the media, and the public pay increased attention to the environmental and social aspects of development. Technological change plays an important role. At the same time, however, the storyline does not include any climate policies.

B2The B2 world is one of increased concern for environmental and social sustainability compared to the A2 storyline. Increasingly, government policies and business strategies at the national and local levels are influenced by environmentally aware citizens, with a trend toward local self-reliance and stronger communities. International institutions decline in importance, with a shift toward local and regional decision-making structures and institutions. Human welfare, equality, and environmental protection all have high priority, and they are addressed through community-based social solutions in addition to technical solutions, although implementation rates vary across regions.

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Atmosfera

Oceano

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Fraccion de nubes Escenario A1 2080-2099

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