ben shimshon

The [continuing] rise of super-selectivism

Ben Shimshon | BritainThinks | October 2015

On recent projects, we have been struck

by the way in which people filter and

digest information

We conducted research into how swing voters

experienced the 2015 General Election

Glasgow

East

Taunton

Deane

DewsburyEaling

Central

and Acton

Thanet

South

Swing voters in marginal seats were inundated with

information every day for almost three months

And as you’d expect, they filtered out most of the noise

• The 7 way debate (personalities, not

policy)

• General coverage of the future of the

NHS

• The couple from Scunthorpe who won

the lottery twice

• Parliament was dissolved

• Lib Dems pledged an extra £2.5bn on mental

health

• 100 business leaders signed open letter

supporting Conservatives

• Party leaders took part in 7-way televised

debate

• Leaked memo alleged Sturgeon supported

Cameron

• Poll put Farage behind in Thanet South

In a week when… Our voters saw…

But these swing voters were selecting like

never before

“More than in any previous election, what swing voters saw and heard served to confirm existing views rather than prompt reappraisal. Those already leaning one way or another simply spent the campaign gathering evidence to support their view.”

“Labour are just ‘spend spend

spend’… I just don’t think

austerity would be dealt with

effectively enough by Labour. I’m

beginning to lack any trust at all

in them.”

13April

1Mention

“Ed blasted by 100 entrepreneurs saying Labour would be disastrous for business.”(Elizabeth, Ealing Central

and Acton)

13April

“Reduce the deficit - Ukip and the Conservatives are the only parties taking it seriously .”

(Jonathan, Taunton Deane)

“The Tories don’t care about

public services. They won’t

protect the things normal people

rely on to get by.”

“Pledging to

meet the £8bn…

why is the

money only

there at the

election?”(Paul, Taunton

Deane)

10April

… but no one

questioned

where the £££

would come

from...

Confirmation

Bias

Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Online

Selection

Super

Selectivism+ + =

Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Online

Selection

Super

Selectivism+ + =Confirmation

Bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to

seek out and use information in a way that

confirms one’s beliefs or early impressions,

while giving disproportionately less

attention to information that contradicts it

“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.”

Francis Bacon, 1620

It’s definitely not new …

Thucydides c.400 BC Dante Alghieri 1320 AD

It’s definitely not new … but it is important

Confirmation Bias: Seeking out and selecting

• Hypothesis confirmation – we gravitate towards information sources that confirm our existing view

• Cueing and selecting – we seek out new opinions from people and sources that we agree with on other issues• Politicians we agree with; words and phrases we endorse;

familiar brands;

• Social norms (most people, people like me)

Cues from ‘elites’, be they brands, political parties or

TV personalities, can make or break consensus on an

issue

Adapted from Zaller, J; University of California, 1992 – based on 1990 NES

Before elite split - -

consensus

After elite split –

partisan divergence

The more attentive you are, the more likely you are to

hear messages and filter them using cues

Messages reach more

attentive people

Attentive also most

likely to use cues

Issue polarises along

party lines

Adapted from Zaller, J; University of California, 1992 – based on 1980 & 82 NES

Confirmation Bias: Interpreting

Improves Worsens

WITH 223 75

WITHOUT 107 21

Ratio c.3:1

Ratio c.5:1

Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013

Improves Worsens

WITH 223 75

WITHOUT 107 21

+

+

Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013

Confirmation Bias: Interpreting

Worsens Improves

WITH 223 75

WITHOUT 107 21

+

+

Kahan et al:Yale University, 2013

Confirmation Bias: Interpreting

I want to declare

Opportunity Britain

‘open for business’

[TRANSLATION: “immigrants welcome”]

Confirmation Bias: (mis)Remembering

28%

3Days

40%

False recall

?Schwarz: University of Michigan, 2007

Qualitatively, it feels like people are filtering

and selecting increasingly effectively…

Confirmation

Bias

Online

Selection

Super

Selectivism+ + =Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Consumers are increasingly dismissive of

communicators’ attempts to get heard

• You would say that, wouldn’t you?

(unless I already agree with you)• Politicians just want our votes; companies just want

our money etc. etc. etc.

• Another personalised offer, just for

me? • What’s arresting and disruptive one week, is tricksy

and manipulative the next

Of course they’re going

to say it’s safe, they

stand to make millions

out of it! Male, Fylde

I hate the way they

make it look like it’s a

real letter – get lost

what do you take me

for?Male, Derbyshire

Confirmation

Bias

Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Super

Selectivism+ + =Online

Selection

The “filter bubble” works in (at least) two ways

Hard-Wired Selection

• Personalised search &

recommendation

algorithms

• Targetted advertising &

messaging

• Timeline editing

Social Selection

• Social networking as news source

• Recommendations from friends

• Network building based on preference-proximity

3xLess likely to see liberal content

10%Less exposure to

conservative news sources

Gentzkow & Shapiro: 2011

Corbyn

Supporter

My

Twitter

“It will be very hard for people to watch or

consume something online that has not, in

some sense, been tailored for them”Eric Schmidt, Google

“The thing is, you don’t decide what gets in,

and more importantly, what gets edited out

of your filter bubble”Eli Pariser, “The Filter Bubble”

Confirmation

Bias

Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Online

Selection

Super

Selectivism+ + =

So what does this mean for the way

organisations communicate and engage

with citizens?: Three starting thoughts

1. Start Early

• For most issues, parties

and brands, the story is

set very early

• Once those cues are in

place it’s much harder to

reach beyond your

‘natural’ audience

2. Identify & understand your swing voters

• Segment ruthlessly

• Understand the people you want to convince and convert• How do they think about

you/your issue?

• What are the cues they follow, the sources they trust?

• How will your voice be received?

• How will they find you?

3. Start from where people are (not where you wish they were)

• The arguments that convince your core vote are unlikely to win over your doubters

• Start from a belief that you hold in common

• Don’t rely on ‘the facts’ to carry you through • Myth busting rarely works

• If you’re explaining, you’re losing

“When it say’s

‘everyone’, I just think

of criminals who don’t

deserve anything getting

whatever they want”Female, Manchester, unsure about HRA

“That’s what I want to

know about, how can it

help someone like me.

That could be me, and

the act sorted it for

them”Male, Manchester, unsure about HRA

1. Start Early

2. Understand your swing voters

3. Start from where people are

Confirmation

Bias

Scepticism &

Marketing

Savvy

Online

Selection

Super

Selectivism+ + =

Thank You

Bshimshon@britainthinks.com

@benshimshon | @britainthinks