a outra crise: enerxÍa, cambio climÁtico e economÍa · a outra crise: enerxÍa, cambio...

A OUTRA CRISE: ENERXÍA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO E ECONOMÍA

Xavier Labandeira

Economics for Energy e Rede, Universidade de Vigo

CLUB FARO DE VIGO 26 de novembro de 2013

Sandy, camiño de Nova Iorque: 29 outubro 2012

Despois do Haiyan: Filipinas, 9 novembro 2013

A miña presentación   Por qué estou aquí?

  O cambio climático como problema enerxético   A importancia da economía   O papel de Vigo

  Por qué é tan difícil abordar o problema do cambio climático?   Problema global, pero variable en beneficios e custos   Aspectos inter-xeracionais   Incertidumes

A miña presentación (2)   Qué podemos facer?

  Mitigación de GEI e Adaptación ao cambio   A coordinación internacional: Convención Marco e COPs   Estratexias de mitigación

  A situación actual da negociación   Kioto, Copenhague e Varsovia   Arriba-abaixo ou abaixo-arriba?

A miña presentación (3)   Estratexias de mitigación

  O papel dos prezos: mercados e impostos   As renovables   Outras alternativas non mandatorias

  Educación e persuasión   O papel das empresas

  O caso español   A experiencia renovable   A eficiencia enerxética   Impostos e reformas fiscais verdes

Por qué estou aquí?

Rede e o MXDS

Por qué estou aquí?

Economics for Energy

Por qué estou aquí?

IPCC en Vigo

Por qué é tan difícil abordar o problema do cambio climático?

Variación de beneficios e custos

Qué podemos facer?   Coordinación internacional

  Unha breve historia   2 ºC?   Estado actual

Estratexias de mitigación   Por qué prezos (mercados ou impostos)?   Renovables: Potencial e custo, outros obxectivos   Alternativas non ‘mandatorias’

  Aproximacións voluntarias   O papel dos cidadáns

  Outras razóns para actuar   Dependencia enerxética   Problemas ambientais locais

Estratexias de mitigación

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Dependencia enerxética

Obama Visits Ohio Factory to Boost Clean Energy Economy

BEDFORD HEIGHTS, Ohio, January 16, 2009 (ENS) - President-elect Barack Obama today visited a factory in Bedford Heights, Ohio that is the largest manufacturer in the United States of the giant bolts used to construct wind turbines (….)

Obama pointed to Spain, Germany and Japan, where, he said "they're making real investments in renewable energy" and "surging ahead of us, poised to take the lead in these new industries.” "This isn't because they're smarter than us, or work harder than us, or are more innovative than we are," he said. "It's because their governments have harnessed their people's hard work and ingenuity

with bold investments - investments that are paying off in good, high-wage jobs - jobs they won't lose to other countries."

España: Experiencia renovable

27/10/13 19:31Renewable Energy in Spain Is Taking a Beating - NYTimes.com

Página 1 de 5http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/09/business/energy-environment/r…-energy-in-spain-is-taking-a-beating.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

October 8, 2013

Renewable Energy in Spain Is Taking aBeatingBy ANDRÉS CALA

MADRID — Years of disastrous policies, coupled with the economic crisis, have recast

renewable energy in Spain. Once touted as the embodiment of progress, wealth and

sustainability, the industry is now seen as an unwanted and costly extravagance.

The policy turnaround started in 2010 but picked up momentum with a government decree in

July aimed at closing a widening gap between the cost of electricity generation and what

consumers pay — known as the tariff deficit.

The decree’s impact has all but erased public support for renewable power, raising alarms in the

industry inside and outside Spain.

“We’ve gone from misery to ruin,” said Jaume Margarit, director of the Association of

Renewable Energy Producers.

In essence, the decree aims to stop an unsustainable annual growth of the tariff deficit, which

over the years has built up a cumulative debt of about !26 billion, or $35 billion. In an

embarrassing admission, the government said last month that despite past consumer price

increases for power and attempts at reform, the tariff deficit this year would reach !2.5 billion

to !3 billion.

The call on the government’s coffers has soared as tax revenue has slumped because of the

recession.

While the demand for power has plummeted nearly 6 percent since 2007 because of the slide in

economic activity, the share of mandated renewable output has increased, crowding out cheaper

coal and gas.

More than 27 percent of Spain’s power supply in 2012 came from renewable sources, excluding

big hydroelectric generators, compared with around 13 percent in 2007 — one of the highest

shares in the European Union.

The government’s bid to change course has all but assured legal battles with investors, and has

triggered diplomatic pressure by the United States and the rest of Europe, as well as expressions

Unha experiencia exitosa, para algúns…

Produción eólica, 24/09/2012

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A experiencia renovable española   Políticas con distinto grao de efectividade   Elevados custos   Respostan a diversos obxectivos   Importantes efeitos distributivos   Cambios estruturais no sistema enerxético   Desexable evitar oscilacións

Eficiencia enerxética en España

Eficiencia enerxética en España   De novo, obxectivos varios   A importancia do sector residencial e transporte   Relevancia da información: certificados enerxéticos   Cuestións distributivas   Un imposto sobre a ineficiencia enerxética das vivendas?

As contas públicas do estado

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Evolución ingresos fiscais sobre PIB (2002-2012)

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EU-27 Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Portugal United Kingdom

Anomalías na imposición ambiental española   Os impostos, outra vez   Resultados académicos positivos, pero   Baixos niveis en España

  Xaneiro 2012, aumento do IRPF; setembro 2012 aumento do IVA   Recomendacións continuas do FMI e a CE para aumentar estes tributos   Decembro 2012, impostos sobre produtores eléctricos e gas natural.   Xullo 2013, novo imposto sobre gases fluorados de invernadeiro

  Protagonismo das administracións autonómicas   Por qué?   Experiencias problemáticas

Por qué?   Inercia fiscal   Crecemento e competitividade   Gañadores e perdedores   Preferencias sociais

  O estudo para España (Hanemann, Labandeira e Loureiro, 2011)

Unha simulación   Baseada na proposta de Directiva sobre

imposición enerxética armonizada (2011)   Tendencia á media europea   Sen reforma fiscal verde

  Posibles compensacións distributivas   Compensacións ás CCAA?   Finanzamento de eficiencia enerxética/renovables

Unha simulación (2)   Posible aumento recaudatorio de + 11.700 M€ (+90% desde 2010)   Outros esforzos de consolidación neste campo

  Grecia: +42% en ingresos fiscais enerxéticos (2011/2008)   Italia: +27% (gasolina) y +43% (diesel) entre abril 2011 e xuño 2012

  Outros incrementos recadatorios   Zapatero 2010/11: IVA + 5500 M€, IRPF +200 M€   Rajoy 2012: IVA +7500 M€, IRPF +4000 M€, ‘Ambientais’ 2700 M€   Novo impuesto sobre gases fluorados de efecto invernadeiro (2013): 300 M€   Impostos enerxético-ambientais autonómicos (2012): 250 M€

Conclusións   O cambio climático é un desafío importante para as sociedades actuais

  A pesar da preocupante evidencia científica, o progreso é difícil por:   Problema global   Importantes custos   Problema de longo prazo

  A Economía pode axudar a resolver algunhas das dificultades anteriores con:   Deseño de políticas e estratexías efectivas   Con obxectivo de minimizar custos

  Hai un importante marxe de actuación e mellora para España neste ámbito

GRAZAS http://webs.uvigo.es/xavier

xavier@uvigo.es