a outra crise: enerxÍa, cambio climÁtico e economÍa · a outra crise: enerxÍa, cambio...
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A OUTRA CRISE: ENERXÍA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO E ECONOMÍA
Xavier Labandeira
Economics for Energy e Rede, Universidade de Vigo
CLUB FARO DE VIGO 26 de novembro de 2013
Sandy, camiño de Nova Iorque: 29 outubro 2012
Despois do Haiyan: Filipinas, 9 novembro 2013
A miña presentación Por qué estou aquí?
O cambio climático como problema enerxético A importancia da economía O papel de Vigo
Por qué é tan difícil abordar o problema do cambio climático? Problema global, pero variable en beneficios e custos Aspectos inter-xeracionais Incertidumes
A miña presentación (2) Qué podemos facer?
Mitigación de GEI e Adaptación ao cambio A coordinación internacional: Convención Marco e COPs Estratexias de mitigación
A situación actual da negociación Kioto, Copenhague e Varsovia Arriba-abaixo ou abaixo-arriba?
A miña presentación (3) Estratexias de mitigación
O papel dos prezos: mercados e impostos As renovables Outras alternativas non mandatorias
Educación e persuasión O papel das empresas
O caso español A experiencia renovable A eficiencia enerxética Impostos e reformas fiscais verdes
Por qué estou aquí?
Rede e o MXDS
Por qué estou aquí?
Economics for Energy
Por qué estou aquí?
IPCC en Vigo
Por qué é tan difícil abordar o problema do cambio climático?
Variación de beneficios e custos
Qué podemos facer? Coordinación internacional
Unha breve historia 2 ºC? Estado actual
Estratexias de mitigación Por qué prezos (mercados ou impostos)? Renovables: Potencial e custo, outros obxectivos Alternativas non ‘mandatorias’
Aproximacións voluntarias O papel dos cidadáns
Outras razóns para actuar Dependencia enerxética Problemas ambientais locais
Estratexias de mitigación
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España Spanish CO2 emissions
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Dependencia enerxética
Obama Visits Ohio Factory to Boost Clean Energy Economy
BEDFORD HEIGHTS, Ohio, January 16, 2009 (ENS) - President-elect Barack Obama today visited a factory in Bedford Heights, Ohio that is the largest manufacturer in the United States of the giant bolts used to construct wind turbines (….)
Obama pointed to Spain, Germany and Japan, where, he said "they're making real investments in renewable energy" and "surging ahead of us, poised to take the lead in these new industries.” "This isn't because they're smarter than us, or work harder than us, or are more innovative than we are," he said. "It's because their governments have harnessed their people's hard work and ingenuity
with bold investments - investments that are paying off in good, high-wage jobs - jobs they won't lose to other countries."
España: Experiencia renovable
27/10/13 19:31Renewable Energy in Spain Is Taking a Beating - NYTimes.com
Página 1 de 5http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/09/business/energy-environment/r…-energy-in-spain-is-taking-a-beating.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print
October 8, 2013
Renewable Energy in Spain Is Taking aBeatingBy ANDRÉS CALA
MADRID — Years of disastrous policies, coupled with the economic crisis, have recast
renewable energy in Spain. Once touted as the embodiment of progress, wealth and
sustainability, the industry is now seen as an unwanted and costly extravagance.
The policy turnaround started in 2010 but picked up momentum with a government decree in
July aimed at closing a widening gap between the cost of electricity generation and what
consumers pay — known as the tariff deficit.
The decree’s impact has all but erased public support for renewable power, raising alarms in the
industry inside and outside Spain.
“We’ve gone from misery to ruin,” said Jaume Margarit, director of the Association of
Renewable Energy Producers.
In essence, the decree aims to stop an unsustainable annual growth of the tariff deficit, which
over the years has built up a cumulative debt of about !26 billion, or $35 billion. In an
embarrassing admission, the government said last month that despite past consumer price
increases for power and attempts at reform, the tariff deficit this year would reach !2.5 billion
to !3 billion.
The call on the government’s coffers has soared as tax revenue has slumped because of the
recession.
While the demand for power has plummeted nearly 6 percent since 2007 because of the slide in
economic activity, the share of mandated renewable output has increased, crowding out cheaper
coal and gas.
More than 27 percent of Spain’s power supply in 2012 came from renewable sources, excluding
big hydroelectric generators, compared with around 13 percent in 2007 — one of the highest
shares in the European Union.
The government’s bid to change course has all but assured legal battles with investors, and has
triggered diplomatic pressure by the United States and the rest of Europe, as well as expressions
Unha experiencia exitosa, para algúns…
Produción eólica, 24/09/2012
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Custos
0
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supp
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or re
newa
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(milli
on E
uro)
Waste Biomass Small hydro Wind Solar PV Solar TE
A experiencia renovable española Políticas con distinto grao de efectividade Elevados custos Respostan a diversos obxectivos Importantes efeitos distributivos Cambios estruturais no sistema enerxético Desexable evitar oscilacións
Eficiencia enerxética en España
Eficiencia enerxética en España De novo, obxectivos varios A importancia do sector residencial e transporte Relevancia da información: certificados enerxéticos Cuestións distributivas Un imposto sobre a ineficiencia enerxética das vivendas?
As contas públicas do estado
-7,2%
-5,5%
-4,0%
-3,0%
1,3%
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-4,5%
-11,2%
-9,3%
-8,5%
-0,1%-0,3%-0,2%
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-12,0%
-10,0%
-8,0%
-6,0%
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Evolución ingresos fiscais sobre PIB (2002-2012)
31
36
41
46
51
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU-27 Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Portugal United Kingdom
Anomalías na imposición ambiental española Os impostos, outra vez Resultados académicos positivos, pero Baixos niveis en España
Xaneiro 2012, aumento do IRPF; setembro 2012 aumento do IVA Recomendacións continuas do FMI e a CE para aumentar estes tributos Decembro 2012, impostos sobre produtores eléctricos e gas natural. Xullo 2013, novo imposto sobre gases fluorados de invernadeiro
Protagonismo das administracións autonómicas Por qué? Experiencias problemáticas
Por qué? Inercia fiscal Crecemento e competitividade Gañadores e perdedores Preferencias sociais
O estudo para España (Hanemann, Labandeira e Loureiro, 2011)
Unha simulación Baseada na proposta de Directiva sobre
imposición enerxética armonizada (2011) Tendencia á media europea Sen reforma fiscal verde
Posibles compensacións distributivas Compensacións ás CCAA? Finanzamento de eficiencia enerxética/renovables
Unha simulación (2) Posible aumento recaudatorio de + 11.700 M€ (+90% desde 2010) Outros esforzos de consolidación neste campo
Grecia: +42% en ingresos fiscais enerxéticos (2011/2008) Italia: +27% (gasolina) y +43% (diesel) entre abril 2011 e xuño 2012
Outros incrementos recadatorios Zapatero 2010/11: IVA + 5500 M€, IRPF +200 M€ Rajoy 2012: IVA +7500 M€, IRPF +4000 M€, ‘Ambientais’ 2700 M€ Novo impuesto sobre gases fluorados de efecto invernadeiro (2013): 300 M€ Impostos enerxético-ambientais autonómicos (2012): 250 M€
Conclusións O cambio climático é un desafío importante para as sociedades actuais
A pesar da preocupante evidencia científica, o progreso é difícil por: Problema global Importantes custos Problema de longo prazo
A Economía pode axudar a resolver algunhas das dificultades anteriores con: Deseño de políticas e estratexías efectivas Con obxectivo de minimizar custos
Hai un importante marxe de actuación e mellora para España neste ámbito
