modelo de planificación energética orientado al desarrollo sostenible ing. pablo Álvarez watkins...

Modelo de planificacin energtica orientado al desarrollo sostenible Ing. Pablo lvarez WatkinsDirector: Dr. Juan Jos Snchez InarejosTesis Doctoral

IVObtencin de datos previos

IV.- Obtencin de datosReportes por instituciones: ONU, WEC, UE, EIA, IEA Anlisis de los datos: Poblacin y Consumo Energtico Estimacin de datos faltantes Clculo del consumo energtico por persona Anlisis por sectores de consumoAnlisis de recursos y cesta energtica

IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases considerados en el trabajo 50 pases: 18 desarrollados y 32 subdesarrollados

IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Elaboracin de Grupos II 2 Criterios bsicos para la agrupacin de los 50 pases del estudio: Crecimiento poblacional en los prximos 50 aos ndice de Desarrollo Humano

IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Elaboracin de Grupos II

Grupos

Grupos

GIGIIBGIIAGIIIBGIIIAGIVBGIVA

IDH200%110

IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases por grupoGIIADerrochadoresGIIBDeslumbradosGIIIBInsumisosGIOlvidadosGIIIAVacilantesGIVBDescalabradosGIVAReconstruidosResto no considerado

GIGIIBGIIAGIIIBGIVBGIVAGIIIAIV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases por grupoEtiopa:% de Crec.: 269.43 %IDH: 0.327E.V.: 44 aos% Lit.: 39 Educ.: 27%PIB: 2000 USD/hab.Japn:% de Crec.: 85.82 %IDH: 0.933E.V.: 81 aos% Lit.: 99 Educ.: 82%PIB: 26 755 USD/hab..

Grfico1

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH

% de crecimiento en 50 aos

C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050

C0

Caso 1 - Referencia

CEPE-1950IDH-2000CEPE-2000D - CEPCCEPC 1950/2000IDH-1950

GI23.140.5227.944.80.82820.452

GIIB12.840.7129.5216.680.43500.430

GIIIB26.980.7574.2347.250.36350.510

GIVB103.40.79162.4359.030.63660.770

GIIA325.90.93350.7924.890.92900.900

GIIIA103.220.92166.9163.690.61840.840

GIVA120.350.92160.4640.110.75000.880

C0

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

CEPE-1950

IDH-2000

CEPE-2000

IDH-1950

Caso 0 - Referencia

C1

Caso 1 - Referencia

CEPE-2000IDH-2000CEPE-2050D - CEPCCEPC 2050/2000IDH-2050

GI27.930.5226.53-1.40.94990.500

GIIB29.520.7169.6540.132.35940.75

GIIIB74.190.75159.7185.522.15270.79

GIVB162.430.79353.45191.022.17600.93

GIIA350.780.93410.6959.911.17081

GIIIA166.910.92264.0897.171.58221

GIVA160.460.92349.88189.422.18051

C1

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

CEPE-2000

IDH-2000

CEPE-2050

IDH-2050

Caso 1 - Referencia

IDH - Hist

19751980198519901995200019501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

GI0.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518GI0.250.2850.3150.340.370.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518

GIIB0.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712GIIB0.410.450.480.510.5380.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712

GIIIB0.6960.7110.7330.7660.7770.746GIIIB0.60.620.640.660.6750.6960.7110.7330.7660.7770.746

GIVB0.7820.7960.8080.8030.7860.793GIVB0.7150.730.740.7550.7650.7820.7960.8080.8030.7860.793

GIIA0.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934GIIA0.7550.7750.790.810.8250.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934

GIIIA0.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921GIIIA0.7380.7650.780.7950.8150.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921

GIVA0.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924GIVA0.7460.770.7850.8020.820.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924

GI197519801985199019952000

Angola0.3050.3250.3440.3640.3830.403

Arabia Saud0.5870.6460.670.7060.7370.759

Etiopa0.2480.2610.2750.2970.3080.327

Nigeria0.3280.3880.4030.4250.4480.462

Pakistn0.3450.3720.4040.4420.4730.499

Per0.6410.6690.6920.7040.730.747

Rep. Dem. Congo0.3270.3480.3690.3890.410.431

0.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518

GIIB

Argelia0.5010.550.60.6390.6630.697

Argentina0.7850.7990.8050.8080.830.844

Brasil0.6440.6790.6920.7130.7370.757

Chile0.7020.7370.7540.7820.8110.831

China0.5230.5540.5910.6250.6810.726

Egipto0.4350.4820.5320.5740.6050.642

Filipinas0.6520.6840.6880.7160.7330.754

India0.4070.4340.4730.5110.5450.577

Indonesia0.4690.530.5820.6230.6640.684

Irn0.5560.5630.6070.6450.6880.721

Kenia0.4430.4890.5120.5330.5230.513

Marruecos0.4290.4740.5080.540.5690.602

Mxico0.6890.7340.7520.7610.7740.796

Tahilandia0.6040.6450.6760.7130.7490.762

Turqua0.5930.6170.6540.6860.7170.742

Venezuela0.7160.7310.7380.7570.7660.77

Vietnm0.5820.5820.5830.6050.6490.688

0.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712

GIIIB

Cuba0.7430.7590.7820.8180.8290.796

Sudfrica0.6490.6630.6830.7140.7240.695

0.6960.7110.73250.7660.77650.7455

GIVB

Estonia0.790.80.8290.8280.8250.826

Federacin Rusa0.790.8090.8270.8240.7790.781

Polonia0.7850.790.7930.7920.8080.833

Rumania0.7550.7880.7940.7770.7720.775

Ucrania0.790.7930.7980.7950.7450.748

0.7820.7960.80820.80320.78580.7926

GIIA

Australia0.8440.8610.8730.8880.9270.939

Canada0.8680.8830.9060.9260.9320.94

EE.UU.0.8630.8840.8980.9140.9250.939

Irlanda0.8180.8310.8460.870.8940.925

Luxenburgo0.8310.8460.860.8840.9120.925

0.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934

GIIIA

Austria0.840.8540.8670.890.9090.926

Blgica0.8440.8610.8750.8960.9270.939

Dinamarca0.8680.8760.8830.8910.9070.926

Espaa0.8190.8380.8550.8760.8950.913

Finlandia0.8360.8560.8730.8960.9080.93

Francia0.8480.8630.8750.8970.9140.928

Grecia0.8080.8290.8450.8590.8680.885

Holanda0.8610.8730.8880.9020.9220.935

Portugal0.7370.760.7870.8190.8550.88

Reino Unido0.8410.8480.8580.8780.9160.928

Suecia0.8630.8720.8830.8940.9250.941

0.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921

GIVA

Alemania0.8410.8590.8680.8850.9070.925

Japn0.8540.8780.8930.9090.9230.933

Italia0.8280.8460.8560.8790.8970.913

0.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924

El dato rojo es supuesto

IDH - Hist

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

0000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH

Grupos

Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH

GI-1950368.50.25

GIIB-1950268.90.41

GIIIB-1950279.370.6

GIVB-1950142.230.715

GIIA-1950178.570.755

GIIIA-1950127.990.738

GIVA-1950133.960.746

GI-2000273.050.518

GIIB-2000143.580.712

GIIIB-2000106.720.746

GIVB-200072.280.793

GIIA-2000147.250.934

GIIIA-2000103.990.921

GIVA-200085.790.924

GI-2050184.140.5

GIIB-2050119.690.75

GIIIB-2050108.860.79C1

GIVB-205067.30.93

GIIA-2050136.211

GIIIA-205097.771

GIVA-205078.581

Grupos

000000000000000000000

GI-1950

GIIB-1950

GIIIB-1950

GIVB-1950

GIIA-1950

GIIIA-1950

GIVA-1950

GI-2000

GIIB-2000

GIIIB-2000

GIVB-2000

GIIA-2000

GIIIA-2000

GIVA-2000

GI-2050

GIIB-2050

GIIIB-2050

GIVB-2050

GIIA-2050

GIIIA-2050

GIVA-2050

IDH


Transicin de los grupos C0-C1

sintesis

0000000

GI-2000

GIIB-2000

GIIIB-2000

GIVB-2000

GIIA-2000

GIIIA-2000

GIVA-2000

IDH


Grupos con datos ao 2000

Ev grupos-C1

xyxy

IDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aos

GI-19500.25368.50.25368.5GI-1950

GI-19600.315356.60.315356.6GI-1960

GI-19700.37347.310.37347.31GI-1970

GIIB-19500.41268.90.41268.9GIIB-1950

GI-19800.43337.220.43337.22GI-1980

GI-19900.475302.880.475302.88GI-1990

GIIB-19600.48226.50.48226.5GIIB-1960

GI-20000.518273.050.518273.05GI-2000

GIIB-19700.538195.350.538195.35GIIB-1970

GIIIB-19500.6279.370.6279.37GIIIB-1950

GIIB-19800.605176.680.605176.68GIIB-1980

GIIIB-19600.64195.710.64195.71GIIIB-1960

GIIB-19900.661160.790.661160.79GIIB-1990

GIIIB-19700.6751500.675150GIIIB-1970

GIIIB-19800.711127.20.711127.2GIIIB-1980

GIIB-20000.712143.580.712143.58GIIB-2000

GIVB-19500.715142.230.715142.23GIVB-1950

GIIIA-19500.738127.990.738127.99GIIIA-1950

GIVB-19600.74118.370.74118.37GIVB-1960

GIIIB-20000.746106.720.746106.72GIIIB-2000

GIVA-19500.746133.960.746133.96GIVA-1950

GIIA-19500.755178.570.755178.57GIIA-1950

GIVB-19700.765101.20.765101.2GIVB-1970

GIIIB-19900.766115.680.766115.68GIIIB-1990

GIIIA-19600.78120.90.78120.9GIIIA-1960

GIVA-19600.7851230.785123GIVA-1960

GIIA-19600.79166.90.79166.9GIIA-1960

GIVB-20000.79372.28GIVB-2000

GIVB-19800.79687.46GIVB-1980

GIVB-19900.80376.94GIVB-1990

GIIIA-19700.815116.610.815116.61GIIIA-1970

GIVA-19700.82112.890.82112.89GIVA-1970

GIIA-19700.825159.380.825159.38GIIA-1970

GIIIA-19800.848111.850.848111.85GIIIA-1980

GIVA-19800.861101.410.861101.41GIVA-1980

GIIA-19800.861155.380.861155.38GIIA-1980

GIIIA-19900.882108.380.882108.38GIIIA-1990

GIVA-19900.89192.620.89192.62GIVA-1990

GIIA-19900.896150.040.896150.04GIIA-1990

GIIIA-20000.921103.990.921103.99GIIIA-2000

GIVA-20000.92485.790.92485.79GIVA-2000

GIIA-20000.934147.250.934147.25GIIA-2000

Ev grupos-C1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tendencia de los grupos 1950-2000

Ev-Grupos-C2a

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


Ev-Grupos-C2b

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


EV-Grupos-C2c

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tendencia 'potencial' de los grupos 1950-2000(3 datos menos)

EV-grupos-C4a

195020102020203020402050

C1Crecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH

GI368.50.25242.940.514216.760.511197.480.507187.30.504184.140.5368.50.25

GIIB268.90.41132.860.72126.680.727122.040.735119.760.742119.690.75356.60.315

GIIIB279.370.6107.190.754107.750.763109.140.772108.880.781108.860.79347.310.37

1950GIVB142.230.71570.630.8269.250.84868.180.87567.40.90367.30.93268.90.41

GIIA178.570.755141.890.947138.940.96136.420.974136.340.987136.211337.220.43

GIIIA127.990.738101.470.93799.920.95398.650.96897.760.98497.771302.880.475

GIVA133.960.74681.760.93979.850.95478.860.9778.630.98578.581226.50.48

GI356.60.315184.140.5

GIIB226.50.48187.30.504

GIIIB195.710.64197.480.507

1960GIVB118.370.74216.760.511

GIIA166.90.79242.940.514

GIIIA120.90.78273.050.518

GIVA1230.785195.350.538

GI347.310.37279.370.6

GIIB195.350.538176.680.605

GIIIB1500.675195.710.64

1970GIVB101.20.765160.790.661

GIIA159.380.8251500.675

GIIIA116.610.815127.20.711

GIVA112.890.82143.580.712

GI337.220.43142.230.715

GIIB176.680.605132.860.72

GIIIB127.20.711126.680.727

1980GIVB87.460.796122.040.735

GIIA155.380.861127.990.738

GIIIA111.850.848118.370.74

GIVA101.410.861119.760.742

GI302.880.475106.720.746

GIIB160.790.661133.960.746

GIIIB115.680.766107.190.754

1990GIVB76.940.803178.570.755

GIIA150.040.896107.750.763

GIIIA108.380.882101.20.765

GIVA92.620.891115.680.766

GI273.050.518119.690.75

GIIB143.580.712109.140.772

GIIIB106.720.746120.90.78

2000GIVB72.280.793108.880.781

GIIA147.250.9341230.785

GIIIA103.990.921108.860.79

GIVA85.790.924166.90.79

72.280.793

87.460.796

76.940.803

116.610.815

70.630.82

112.890.82

159.380.825

69.250.848

111.850.848

101.410.861

155.380.861

68.180.875

108.380.882

92.620.891

150.040.896

67.40.903

103.990.921

85.790.924

67.30.93

147.250.934

101.470.937

81.760.939

141.890.947

99.920.953

79.850.954

138.940.96

98.650.968

78.860.97

136.420.974

97.760.984

78.630.985

136.340.987

78.581

97.771

136.211

EV-grupos-C4a

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



EV-grupos-C4b

11111111111111

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH


C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH


C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH


C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



C1

IDH



GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



C2aCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25

GI1950368.50.25350.060.315

1960350.060.315333.80.37

1970333.80.37268.980.41

1980321.410.43321.410.43

1990295.890.475295.890.475

2000281.360.518240.710.48

2010272.860.557281.360.518

2020266.520.596222.290.538

2030262.210.634272.860.557

2040259.850.673266.520.596

279.370.6

2050259.370.712Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH212.710.605

262.210.634

GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755209.070.64

1960240.710.481960166.90.79203.980.661

1970222.290.5381970159.380.825259.850.673

1980212.710.6051980155.380.861172.050.675

1990203.980.6611990150.040.896156.480.711

2000191.020.7122000147.250.934191.020.712

2010173.580.7562010141.890.947259.370.712

2020161.260.8012020138.940.96142.230.715

2030153.20.8452030136.420.974127.990.738

2040148.880.892040136.340.987124.570.74

2050148.020.9342050136.211133.960.746

148.040.746

GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738178.570.755

1960209.070.641960123.680.78173.580.756

1970172.050.6751970123.580.815114.730.765

1980156.480.7111980123.630.848150.910.766

1990150.910.7661990125.90.882123.680.78

2000148.040.7462000128.630.921148.030.783

2010148.030.7832010130.770.937126.310.785

2020148.060.8212020132.440.953166.90.79

2030148.070.8582030133.590.968118.830.793

2040148.090.8962040134.240.984109.40.796

2050148.090.9342050134.371161.260.801

108.720.803

GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.746123.580.815

1960124.570.741960126.310.785122.820.82

1970114.730.7651970122.820.82129.170.821

1980109.40.7961980119.20.861148.060.821

1990108.720.8031990119.660.891159.380.825

2000118.830.7932000123.080.924153.20.845

2010129.170.8212010127.250.939123.630.848

2020137.650.8492020130.520.954137.650.849

2030141.040.8782030132.830.97148.070.858

2040147.330.9062040134.130.985119.20.861

2050148.040.9342050134.391155.380.861

141.040.878

125.90.882

148.880.89

119.660.891

148.090.896

150.040.896

147.330.906

128.630.921

123.080.924

147.250.934

148.020.934

148.040.934

148.090.934

130.770.937

127.250.939

141.890.947

132.440.953

130.520.954

138.940.96

133.590.968

132.830.97

136.420.974

134.240.984

134.130.985

136.340.987

134.371

134.391

136.211

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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0

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0

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C2a

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH


Evolucin de los grupos hacia el GIIA - 1950-2050

C2bCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25

GI1950368.50.25344.730.315

1960344.730.315316.160.37

1970316.160.37268.980.41

1980286.570.43286.570.43

1990242.760.475242.760.475

2000207.550.518239.390.48

2010182.860.563207.550.518

2020165.860.609218.210.538

2030154.950.654182.860.563

2040149.160.7279.370.6


165.860.609

GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755190.590.661

1960239.390.481960161.550.79207.860.64

1970218.210.5381970149.280.825154.950.654

1980204.520.6051980138.910.861168.760.675

1990190.590.6611990128.170.896149.160.7

2000172.030.7122000118.160.934150.270.711

2010151.20.7542010110.150.947172.030.712

2020136.890.7962020104.360.96142.230.715

2030127.720.8372030100.520.974148.020.722

2040122.850.879204098.440.987127.990.738

2050121.90.921205098.031123.820.74

133.080.746

GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746

1960207.860.641960120.940.78151.20.754

1970168.760.6751970116.610.815178.570.755

1980150.270.7111980111.850.848112.460.765

1990140.760.7661990108.380.882140.760.766

2000133.080.7462000103.990.921120.940.78

2010128.760.782010101.470.937128.760.78

2020125.580.815202099.920.953125.120.785

2030123.40.851203098.650.968161.550.79

2040122.230.886204097.760.984106.650.793

2050122.010.921205097.771104.930.796

136.890.796

GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.746101.260.803

1960123.820.741960125.120.785116.610.815

1970112.460.7651970118.990.82125.580.815

1980104.930.7961980111.530.861112.190.819

1990101.260.8031990106.790.891118.990.82

2000106.650.7932000103.450.924149.280.825

2010112.190.8192010101.360.932127.720.837

2020116.610.844202099.790.947116.610.844

2030119.750.87203098.720.962111.850.848

2040121.530.895204098.120.985123.40.851

2050121.880.9212050981111.530.861

138.910.861

119.750.87

122.850.879

108.380.882

122.230.886

106.790.891

121.530.895

128.170.896

103.990.921

121.90.921

121.880.921

122.010.921

103.450.924

118.160.934

101.360.932

101.470.937

99.790.947

110.150.947

99.920.953

104.360.96

98.720.962

98.650.968

100.520.974

97.760.984

98.120.985

98.440.987

97.771

981

98.031

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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C2b

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH


Evolucin de los grupos hacia el GIIIA - 1950-2050

C2cCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25

GI1950368.50.25344.730.315

1960344.730.315316.160.37

1970316.160.37268.980.41

1980286.570.43286.570.43

1990242.760.475242.760.475

2000207.550.518239.390.48

2010182.860.563207.550.518

2020165.860.609218.210.538

2030154.950.654182.860.563

2040149.160.7279.370.6


165.860.609

GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755207.260.64

1960239.390.481960160.710.79154.950.654

1970218.210.5381970146.680.825190.590.661

1980204.520.6051980133.850.861167.980.675

1990190.590.6611990120.220.896149.160.7

2000172.030.7122000107.070.934147.230.711

2010151.20.754201096.740.947172.030.712

2020136.890.797202089.480.96142.230.715

2030127.720.839203084.750.974127.990.738

2040122.850.882204082.210.987123.450.74

2050121.90.924205081.711148.020.745

126.120.746

GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746

1960207.260.641960121.870.78151.20.754

1970167.980.6751970117.650.815178.570.755

1980147.230.7111980111.460.848111.340.765

1990135.910.7661990105.380.882135.910.766

2000126.120.746200097.950.921121.870.78

20101200.781201091.50.9371200.781

2020114.960.817202086.830.953123.070.785

2030112.530.852203083.720.968160.710.79

2040110.910.888204082.040.984100.990.793

2050110.60.924205081.711102.750.796

136.890.797

GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74697.690.803

1960123.450.741960123.070.785117.650.815

1970111.340.7651970112.90.82114.960.817

1980102.750.7961980101.410.861104.480.819

199097.690.803199092.620.891112.90.82

2000100.990.793200085.790.924146.680.825

2010104.480.819201081.760.939127.720.839

2020107.220.845202079.850.954107.220.845

2030109.160.872203078.860.97111.460.848

2040110.250.898204078.630.985112.530.852

2050110.470.924205078.581101.410.861

133.850.861

109.160.872

105.380.882

122.850.882

110.910.888

92.620.891

120.220.896

110.250.898

97.950.921

85.790.924

110.470.924

110.60.924

121.90.924

107.070.934

91.50.937

81.760.939

96.740.947

86.830.953

79.850.954

89.480.96

83.720.968

78.860.97

84.750.974

82.040.984

78.630.985

82.210.987

78.581

81.711

81.711

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



C2c

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



C4aCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25

GI1950368.50.25344.260.315

1960344.260.315314.720.37

1970314.720.37268.980.41

1980283.810.43283.810.43

1990238.720.475238.720.475

2000202.250.518236.090.48

2010176.720.574202.250.518

2020159.270.631208.230.538

2030148.120.687176.720.574

2040142.230.744279.370.6


159.270.631

GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755195.740.64

1960236.090.481960161.170.79160.30.661

1970208.230.5381970148.130.825150.70.675

1980185.130.6051980136.640.861148.120.687

1990160.30.6611990124.580.896127.250.711

2000131.580.7122000113.110.934131.580.712

2010106.040.732010103.990.947142.230.715

202089.730.747202097.490.96106.040.73

203079.820.765203093.20.974127.990.738

204074.730.782204090.890.987118.370.74

205073.740.8205090.441142.230.744

106.730.746

GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746

1960195.740.641960120.940.7889.730.747

1970150.70.6751970116.610.815178.570.755

1980127.250.7111980111.850.84879.820.765

1990115.680.7661990108.380.882101.20.765

2000106.730.7462000103.990.921115.680.766

2010107.190.7762010101.470.937107.190.776

2020107.750.807202099.920.953120.940.78

2030109.140.838203098.650.96874.730.782

2040108.80.869204097.760.984123.070.785

2050108.860.9205097.771161.170.79

72.280.793

GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74687.460.796

1960118.370.741960123.070.78573.740.8

1970101.20.7651970112.90.82141.070.8

198087.460.7961980101.410.86176.950.803

199076.950.803199092.620.891107.750.807

200072.280.793200085.790.924116.610.815

201070.630.834201081.760.939112.90.82

202069.250.876202079.850.954148.130.825

203068.180.917203078.860.9770.630.834

204067.40.959204078.630.985109.140.838

205067.31205078.581111.850.848

101.410.861

136.640.861

108.80.869

69.250.876

108.380.882

92.620.891

124.580.896

108.860.9

68.180.917

103.990.921

85.790.924

113.110.934

101.470.937

81.760.939

103.990.947

99.920.953

79.850.954

67.40.959

97.490.96

98.650.968

78.860.97

93.20.974

97.760.984

78.630.985

90.890.987

67.31

78.581

90.441

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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0

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C4a

IDH



00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



C4bCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25

GI1950368.50.25356.610.315

1960356.610.315347.310.37

1970347.310.37268.90.41

1980337.220.43337.220.43

1990279.870.475279.870.475

2000207.990.518226.540.48

2010151.040.574207.990.518

2020110.650.631195.350.538

203085.750.687151.040.574

204077.890.744279.370.6


110.650.631

GIIB1950268.90.41GIIA1950178.570.755198.370.64

1960226.540.481960166.90.79157.660.661

1970195.350.5381970159.380.825154.990.675

1980176.680.6051980155.380.86185.750.687

1990157.660.6611990146.840.896129.190.711

2000134.230.7122000136.560.934134.230.712

2010116.820.72962010120.390.947142.230.715

2020104.660.7472020105.980.96116.820.7296

203094.70.765203094.760.974127.990.738

204090.110.782204090.290.987118.930.74

205091.110.8205089.49177.890.744

101.720.746

GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746

1960198.370.641960120.940.78140.660.747

1970154.990.6751970116.610.815178.570.755

1980129.190.7111980111.850.84894.70.765

1990113.180.7661990108.380.882103.510.765

2000101.720.7462000103.160.921113.180.766

201098.210.7732010101.110.93998.210.773

202095.650.82020100.020.953120.940.78

203096.490.828203099.190.96890.110.782

204098.210.855204098.750.984123.070.785

205099.10.920501001166.90.79

87.240.793

GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74693.310.796

1960118.930.741960123.070.78582.220.8

1970103.510.7651970112.90.8291.110.8

198093.310.7961980101.880.86195.650.8

199086.310.803199096.190.891

200087.240.793200093.440.924116.610.815

201091.840.834201093.450.939112.90.82

202095.740.876202095.780.954159.380.825

203097.830.917203098.810.9796.490.828

204099.560.95920401000.98586.310.803

205010012050100191.840.834

111.850.848

98.210.855

101.880.861

155.380.861

95.740.876

108.380.882

96.190.891

146.840.896

99.10.9

97.830.917

103.160.921

93.440.924

136.560.934

93.450.939

101.110.939

120.390.947

100.020.953

95.780.954

99.560.959

105.980.96

99.190.968

98.810.97

94.760.974

98.750.984

1000.985

90.290.987

89.491

1001

1001

1001

368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA


368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA


368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA


368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GI

GIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIIA

GIVA


00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

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GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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C4b


00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GI

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIIIB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

GIVB

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GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIIIA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

GIVA

IDH



VPrimer modelo basado en la necesidad energticaModelo Bsico Caso C1 la Referencia

V.- Primer modelo basado en la Necesidad Energtica De fcil elaboracin (por 1 persona) Accesible al mayor nmero de personas posible Que integre el mayor nmero de conceptos propuestos Que sirva de base para la elaboracin de nuevos modelosExcel

Se gener un archivo base sobre el que se desarrollan todos los casos a analizar. Se sigui el desarrollo por pasos, acarreando datos de los pasos anteriores. Desarrollado, no de forma general, sino especficamente para los 7 grupos generados El archivo cuenta con 21 hojas, 218 tablas y 129 grficasV.- Primer modelo basado en la Necesidad Energtica

Paso 1.- Estimar el consumo energtico mundialx=V.- Desarrollo del primer modelo

GI

Paso 1

Grupo IAngola, Arabia Saudita, Etiopa, Nigeria, Pakistn, PerGrupo I

y Repblica Democrtica del Congo

Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia

P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.

Sectores de consumo energtico

Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro

2000432.720.1227.9312.092000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

2005490.590.1327.4413.46Industria111.331.331.481.631.812.002.212.422.662.893.173.45

2010549.530.1226.9114.79Transportes121.451.451.621.771.982.182.412.642.903.163.463.76

2015624.540.1426.3916.48Otros sectores536.416.417.137.848.739.6410.6411.6412.7913.9415.2716.61

2020695.880.1126.1418.19Usos no energticos20.240.240.270.300.330.360.400.440.480.530.580.63

2025781.290.1225.7020.08Prdidas222.662.662.963.253.634.004.424.835.315.796.346.89

2030863.010.1025.4621.97Total:100%12.0912.0913.4614.7916.4818.1920.0821.9724.1426.3128.8131.34

2035945.610.1025.5324.1412.0913.4614.7916.4818.1920.0821.9724.1426.3128.8131.34

20401028.120.0925.5926.31

20451111.570.0825.9228.81

20501181.550.0626.5231.34

227.66

(total de referencia-11 aos)

% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GI en el 2000Sectores en % del GI en el 2050

2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.518Industria25.04Industria1111

273.05%94.96%259.29%20050.516Transportes27.32Transportes1212

20100.514Otros sectores120.66Otros sectores5353

El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.513Usos no energticos4.55Usos no energticos22

20200.511Prdidas50.08Prdidas2222

20250.509Total:227.66

20300.507

20350.505

20400.504

20450.502

20500.5

GI

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIB

Paso 1

Grupo IIBArgelia, Argentina, Brasil, China, Chile, Egipto, Filipinas, India, IndonesiaGrupo IIB

Irn, Kenia, Marruecos, Mxico, Tailandia, Turqua, Venezuela, y Vietnam





20003352.460.129.5298.952000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

20053555.560.0632.29114.82Industria2524.7424.7428.7132.6537.2441.8847.4753.0859.8866.6375.2483.82

20103755.460.0634.78130.60Transportes1817.8117.8120.6723.5126.8130.1534.1838.2243.1147.9854.1760.35

20153919.230.0438.01148.97Otros sectores2928.7028.7033.3037.8743.2048.5855.0661.5769.4677.2987.2897.23

20204082.690.0441.03167.50Usos no energticos43.963.964.595.225.966.707.598.499.5810.6612.0413.41

20254238.540.0444.80189.87Prdidas2423.7523.7527.5631.3435.7540.2045.5750.9557.4863.9772.2380.46

20304393.050.0448.33212.31Total:10098.9598.95114.82130.60148.97167.50189.87212.31239.50266.53300.95335.26

20354534.920.0352.81239.5098.95114.82130.60148.97167.50189.87212.31239.50266.53300.95335.26

20404640.350.0257.44266.53

20454727.610.0263.66300.95

20504813.330.0269.65335.26

2205.26


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIB en el 2050




El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.723Usos no energticos88.21Usos no energticos44


20250.731Total:2205.26

20300.735

20350.739

20400.742

20450.746

20500.75

GIIB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIIB

Paso 1

Grupo IIIBCuba y SudfricaGrupo IIIB





200054.5630.0474.194.052000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

200554.8920.0180.894.44Industria240.970.971.071.171.301.431.561.701.831.972.102.23

201055.2560.0187.954.86Transportes180.730.730.800.870.971.071.171.271.381.471.571.67

201556.2650.0296.155.41Otros sectores19.30.780.780.860.941.041.151.261.371.471.581.691.79

202055.909-0.01106.785.97Usos no energticos2.70.110.110.120.130.150.160.180.190.210.220.240.25

202555.475-0.01117.536.52Prdidas361.461.461.601.751.952.152.352.552.752.953.153.35

203056.1410.01126.117.08Total:1004.054.054.444.865.415.976.527.087.648.198.749.30

203556.7910.01134.537.644.054.444.865.415.976.527.087.648.198.749.30

204057.2370.01143.098.19

204557.7380.01151.378.74

205058.230.01159.719.30

72.20


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIIB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIIB en el 2050



20100.754Otros sectores13.93Otros sectores19.319.3

El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.759Usos no energticos1.95Usos no energticos2.72.7


20250.768Total:72.20

20300.772

20350.777

20400.781

20450.786

20500.79

GIIIB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIVB

Paso 1

Grupo IVBEstonia, Federacin Rusa, Polonia, Rumania, y UcraniaGrupo IVB





2000257.9-0.01162.4341.892000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

2005250.131-0.03174.0743.54Industria2610.8910.8911.3211.7412.3112.8713.4914.1214.8715.6216.3817.13

2010243.836-0.03185.1245.14Transportes7.53.143.143.273.393.553.713.894.074.294.514.724.94

2015236.792-0.03199.9247.34Otros sectores2811.7311.7312.1912.6413.2613.8614.5315.2016.0116.8317.6418.45


2025222.679-0.03233.0351.89Prdidas3615.0815.0815.6716.2517.0417.8218.6819.5420.5921.6322.6823.72

2030215.6-0.03251.8154.29Total:10041.8941.8943.5445.1447.3449.4951.8954.2957.1960.0962.9965.89

2035208.537-0.03274.2457.1941.8943.5445.1447.3449.4951.8954.2957.1960.0962.9965.89

2040201.493-0.03298.2260.09

2045193.95-0.04324.7762.99

2050186.42-0.04353.4565.89

579.74


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIVB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIVB en el 2050


72.28%217.60%157.29%20050.807Transportes43.48Transportes7.57.5


El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.834Usos no energticos14.49Usos no energticos2.52.5


20250.862Total:579.74

20300.875

20350.889

20400.903

20450.916

20500.93

GIVB

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIA

Paso 1

Grupo IIAAustralia, Canad, EE.UU., Irlanda, LuxemburgoGrupo IIA





2000327.3210.04392.49128.472000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

2005344.3190.05390.83134.57Industria24.431.3531.3532.8434.5236.1937.7339.6341.2842.7144.1946.0348.30

2010361.3380.05391.54141.48Transportes26.734.3034.3035.9337.7839.6041.2943.3645.1746.7348.3550.3652.85

2015376.9260.04393.47148.31Otros sectores2228.2628.2629.6131.1332.6334.0235.7337.2238.5139.8441.5043.55

2020392.5390.04393.96154.65Usos no energticos1.72.182.182.292.412.522.632.762.882.983.083.213.36

2025408.9020.04397.16162.40Prdidas25.232.3732.3733.9135.6537.3738.9740.9242.6344.1145.6347.5349.88

2030425.2770.04397.76169.16Total:100128.47128.47134.57141.48148.31154.65162.40169.16175.03181.09188.63197.94

2035438.9550.03398.74175.03128.47134.57141.48148.31154.65162.40169.16175.03181.09188.63197.94

2040452.6460.03400.07181.09

2045467.310.03403.65188.63

2050481.9750.03410.69197.94

1781.73


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2050

2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.934Industria434.74Industria24.424.4



El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC hasta alcanzar el mximo = 120150.954Usos no energticos30.29Usos no energticos1.71.7

20200.960Prdidas448.99Prdidas25.225.2

20250.967Total:1781.73

20300.974

20350.980

20400.987

20450.993

20501

GIIA

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIIIA

Paso 1

Grupo IIIAAustria, Blgica, Dinamarca, Espaa, Finlandia, Francia, Grecia,Grupo IIIA

Holanda, Portugal, Reino Unido, y Suecia





2000232.640.020167.6439.002000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

2005235.1850.011175.7641.34Industria23.39.099.099.6310.0810.5511.0211.6112.2012.8513.5014.1914.89

2010237.360.009182.2043.25Transportes20.37.927.928.398.789.199.6010.1110.6311.2011.7612.3712.97

2015238.7950.006189.5845.27Otros sectores25.810.0610.0610.6611.1611.6812.2012.8513.5114.2314.9515.7216.48

2020239.950.005197.0747.29Usos no energticos3.31.291.291.361.431.491.561.641.731.821.912.012.11

2025240.9450.004206.7849.82Prdidas27.310.6510.6511.2911.8112.3612.9113.6014.3015.0615.8216.6317.44

2030241.960.004216.4752.38Total:10039.0039.0041.3443.2545.2747.2949.8252.3855.1657.9560.9263.89

2035242.5050.002227.4655.1639.0041.3443.2545.2747.2949.8252.3855.1657.9560.9263.89

2040243.050.002238.4157.95

2045242.475-0.002251.2460.92

2050241.93-0.002264.0863.89

556.25


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIIA en el 2050

2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.921Industria129.61Industria23.323.3


20100.937Otros sectores143.51Otros sectores25.825.8


20200.953Prdidas151.86Prdidas27.327.3

20250.961Total:556.25

20300.968

20350.976

20400.984

20450.992

20501

GIIIA

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

GIVA

Paso 1

Grupo IVAAlemania, Italia y JapnGrupo IVA





2000267.540.01160.4642.932000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

2005268.280.003172.4346.26Industria2912.4512.4513.4214.2015.0915.9816.8618.0319.2120.3921.8323.29

2010267.51-0.003183.1048.98Transportes19.58.378.379.029.5510.1410.7511.3412.1312.9213.7114.6815.66

2015264.41-0.01196.7452.02Otros sectores2410.3010.3011.1011.7612.4813.2313.9614.9215.9016.8718.0719.27


2025256.43-0.02226.7758.15Prdidas25.811.0811.0811.9412.6413.4214.2215.0016.0417.0918.1419.4220.72

2030251.85-0.02246.8962.18Total:10042.9342.9346.2648.9852.0255.1158.1562.1866.2470.3175.2980.30

2035246.27-0.02268.9766.2442.9346.2648.9852.0255.1158.1562.1866.2470.3175.2980.30

2040240.7-0.02292.1170.31

2045235.11-0.02320.2375.29

2050229.51-0.02349.8880.30

657.77


% de Cambio

Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIVA en el 2050





20200.954Prdidas169.70Prdidas25.825.8

20250.962Total:657.77

20300.970

20350.977

20400.985

20450.992

20501

GIVA

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Industria

Transportes

Otros sectores

Usos no energticos

Prdidas

Paso 1-sin

Paso 1 - Sntesis

Consumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por sectoresConsumo energtico per capita por gruposndice de desarrollo humano supuesto por gruposPoblacin por grupos

Caso 1 - ReferenciaRestoCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia

Total anual por gruposConsumo energtico per cpita GJ/hab -referencia-GJ/habIDHMillones de habitantes

GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoConsumo totalGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto

200012.0998.954.0541.89128.4739.0042.93367.3851.97419.3520001154.95344.9951.97200012.0998.954.0541.89128.4739.0042.9351.97SI90.8198.45105.98114.48122.91132.83142.82154.00165.19178.94193.101499.52200027.9329.5274.19162.43392.49167.64160.4644.9920000.5180.7120.7450.7930.9340.9210.924sn2000432.723352.4654.56257.90327.32232.64267.541154.956080.10

51.09427.5416.98170.86526.08160.67178.38240.781772.38200513.46114.824.4443.54134.5741.3446.2668.42ST73.7279.6985.6592.2598.75106.47114.12122.52130.94141.34152.201197.65200527.4432.2980.89174.07390.83175.76172.4353.4620050.520.720.750.810.940.930.93sn2005490.593555.5654.89250.13344.32235.19268.281279.81

200513.46114.824.4443.54134.5741.3446.26398.4368.42466.8520051279.813553.4668.42201014.79130.604.8645.14141.4843.2548.9887.09OS96.24104.85113.33123.03132.67144.03155.43168.37181.31197.15213.381629.80201026.9134.7887.95185.12391.54182.20183.1061.9320100.510.720.750.820.950.940.94sn2010549.533755.4655.26243.84361.34237.36267.511406.16

56.50490.8418.60177.36552.10169.17190.48311.021966.06201516.48148.975.4147.34148.3145.2752.02105.84UNE9.5610.5111.4412.5213.5914.8616.1417.6219.1020.9222.77169.03201526.3938.0196.15199.92393.47189.58196.7468.0120150.510.720.760.830.950.940.95sn2015624.543919.2356.27236.79376.93238.80264.411556.19

201014.79130.604.8645.14141.4843.2548.98429.1087.09516.1920101406.1661.9387.09202018.19167.505.9749.49154.6547.2955.11124.38P97.04104.92112.69121.52130.27140.54150.85162.39173.93187.98202.471584.60202026.1441.03106.78215.40393.96197.07211.1372.6920200.510.730.760.850.960.950.95sn2020695.884082.6955.91229.76392.54239.95261.021711.11

62.54559.1420.54184.96579.58177.03202.00385.862171.65202520.08189.876.5251.89162.4049.8258.15139.18202525.7044.80117.53233.03397.16206.78226.7774.8520250.510.730.770.860.970.960.96sn2025781.294238.5455.48222.68408.90240.95256.431859.34

201516.48148.975.4147.34148.3145.2752.02463.80105.84569.6420151556.19268.01105.84203021.97212.317.0854.29169.1652.3862.18152.25Total anual:367.38398.43429.10463.80498.19538.73579.37624.90670.47726.33783.92203025.4648.33126.11251.81397.76216.47246.8975.7320300.510.730.770.880.970.970.97sn2030863.014393.0556.14215.60425.28241.96251.852010.47

69.34632.9422.76193.66605.91185.11214.26460.442384.42203524.14239.507.6457.19175.0355.1666.24171.82Total:6080.60203525.5352.81134.53274.24398.74227.46268.9778.9420350.510.740.780.890.980.980.98sn2035945.614534.9256.79208.54438.96242.51246.272176.56

202018.19167.505.9749.49154.6547.2955.11498.19124.38622.5720201711.11472.69124.38204026.31266.538.1960.09181.0957.9570.31190.90totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50204025.5957.44143.09298.22400.07238.41292.1180.2620400.500.740.780.900.990.980.98sn20401028.124640.3557.24201.49452.65243.05240.702378.39

76.54714.7424.98202.76634.09194.22226.52527.122600.97204528.81300.958.7462.99188.6360.9275.29213.33%204525.9263.66151.37324.77403.65251.24320.2382.1420450.500.750.790.920.990.990.99sn20451111.574727.6157.74193.95467.31242.48235.112597.09

202520.08189.876.5251.89162.4049.8258.15538.73139.18677.9120251859.33974.85139.18205031.34335.269.3065.89197.9463.8980.30235.58SI1499.5224.66%205026.5269.65159.71353.45410.69264.08349.8883.2520500.500.750.790.931.001.001.00sn20501181.554813.3358.23186.42481.98241.93229.512829.81205010022.76millones de habitantes

84.10804.3627.20212.36663.12204.40240.66582.862819.06ST1197.6519.70%

203021.97212.317.0854.29169.1652.3862.18579.37152.25731.6220302010.47275.73152.25Totales227.662205.2672.20579.741781.73556.25657.771540.76OS1629.8026.80%

92.22903.6229.44222.96688.38215.07256.84648.143056.67Total:7621.36con restoUNE169.032.78%

203524.14239.507.6457.19175.0355.1666.24624.90171.82796.7220352176.55978.94171.826080.60sin restoP1584.6026.06%

100.901012.0631.66234.56712.24226.21273.10725.443316.17totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50

204026.31266.538.1960.09181.0957.9570.31670.47190.90861.3720402378.38780.26190.90Total:6080.60

110.241134.9633.86246.16739.44237.73291.20808.463602.05

204528.81300.958.7462.99188.6360.9275.29726.33213.33939.6620452597.09282.14213.33

120.301272.4236.08257.76773.14249.62311.18897.823918.32

205031.34335.269.3065.89197.9463.8980.30783.92235.581019.5020502829.81183.25235.58

Totales1051.4310157.88334.292683.148255.812575.483042.397128.6935229.11

Total:35229.11

% de P total2.98%28.83%0.95%7.62%23.43%7.31%8.64%20.24%100.00%

% de P 20002.88%23.60%0.97%9.99%30.64%9.30%10.24%12.39%100.00%

% de P 20503.07%32.88%0.91%6.46%19.42%6.27%7.88%23.11%100.00%

GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto

Paso 2-reservas

Paso 2

Caso 1 - Referencia

Reservas Energticas Mundiales

2000

Energticos Naturales

La energa solar4000al ao

La energa elica15al ao4063total al ao

La energa hidrulica45al ao

La energa geotrmica3al ao

El trabajo animalX4108con biomasa, sin hidrulica

Combustibles

Hidrgenoreferido a los HC

Carbn140000reservas ltimas recuperables

Petrleo y sus derivados11600reservas ltimas recuperables

Gas Natural4550reservas ltimas recuperables

Biomasa tradicional80al ao

Biomasa moderna10al ao90total al ao

Energticos nucleares

Uranio1700reservas conocidas - 3.7 Mton

Total:362350

Paso 2-cesta

Paso 2

Cesta energtica por grupo

Caso 1 - Referencia

Porcentajes establecidos

2000 - %2050 - %

GrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtrasGrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

I33.551204.545I33.551204.545

IIB41.2713.7220.440.6716.97IIB41.2713.7220.440.6716.97

IIIB253752.90.130IIIB253752.90.130

IVB31.525.15304.717.65IVB31.525.15304.717.65

IIA38.228.0619.55.32.756.19IIA38.228.0619.55.32.756.19

IIIA41.514.118173.55.9IIIA41.514.118173.55.9

IVA48.415.222.49.41.82.8IVA48.415.222.49.41.82.8

Valores dependientes

GIPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

200033.551204.545100

0

200533.551204.545100

0

201033.551204.545100

0

201533.551204.545100

0

202033.551204.545100

0

202533.551204.545100

0

203033.551204.545100

0

203533.551204.545100

0

204033.551204.545100

0

204533.551204.545100

0

205033.551204.545100

GIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

200041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

200541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

201041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

201541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

202041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

202541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

203041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

203541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

204041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

204541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

0

205041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100

GIIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

2000253752.90.130100

0

2005253752.90.130100

0

2010253752.90.130100

0

2015253752.90.130100

0

2020253752.90.130100

0

2025253752.90.130100

0

2030253752.90.130100

0

2035253752.90.130100

0

2040253752.90.130100

0

2045253752.90.130100

0

2050253752.90.130100

GIVBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

200031.525.15304.717.65100

0

200531.525.15304.717.65100

0

201031.525.15304.717.65100

0

201531.525.15304.717.65100

0

202031.525.15304.717.65100

0

202531.525.15304.717.65100

0

203031.525.15304.717.65100

0

203531.525.15304.717.65100

0

204031.525.15304.717.65100

0

204531.525.15304.717.65100

0

205031.525.15304.717.65100

GIIAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras

200038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

200538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

201038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

201538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

202038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

202538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

0

203038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100

modelo de planificación energética orientado al desarrollo sostenible ing. pablo Álvarez watkins...

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