la industria del papel y celulosa latinoamericana: entorno empresarial marina faleiros, senior news...

La industria del papel y celulosa latinoamericana: entorno empresarial

Marina Faleiros, Senior News EditorMayo 2015

[email protected]

1 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information

Resumen del CV• Gerencia informaciones del sector de celulosa, papeles gráficos y cartón

en América Latina para la consultoría americana RISI, la mayor proveedora de informaciones para la industria de base forestal en el mundo.

• Ubicada en la oficina de San Pablo, trabaja con reportes y análisis sobre la macroeconomía de la región y los principales movimientos de la industria de celulosa y papel.

• Ya visitó profesionalmente todos los principales complexos industriales del sector en los países del continente y anteriormente trabajó en la Asociación Brasileña Técnica de Celulose y Papel (ABTCP).

• Graduada en periodismo por la universidad Cásper Líbero y actualmente cursa MBA en Finanzas y Economía

• Ya reportó sobre la economía brasileña en dos de los mayores periódicos del Brasil, O Estado de S. Paulo y Folha de S. Paulo.

© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information2


Notes and Abbreviations• Dollar figures are per tonne unless noted• BSK = Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (“long” fiber)

– NBSK (northern), SBSK (southern), radiata• BHK = Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (“short” fiber)

– BEK (eucalyptus), NBHK (northern mixed, maple, aspen), acacia, mixed tropical hardwoods

• DP = Dissolving Pulp, primarily textile grade (viscose)• P&W = Printing & Writing Paper

– Coated and uncoated; woodfree and mechanical• AVC = Average Variable Cost of Production

– Also called Delivered Cash Cost—no depreciation, interest, corporate overhead or selling costs

• TPY = Tonnes per Year


Celulosa mundial: desarrollos recientes


Highlights of 2014 Capacity Developments

• BHK Developments– Montes del Plata startup

• 1.3 million TPY, Jul 2014

– Oji Nantong startup• ~500,000 TPY, Jul 2014

– Old Town closure • ~200,000 TPY, Aug 2014

– ENCE Huelva closure• ~400,000 TPY, Aug 2014

• BSK Developments– Ilim Bratsk

• Finised a long ramp-up after a maintenance shut in June

– Pols (Austria)• Recovery boiler repair• ~200,000 TPY loss until

late 2015


As Expected, Pulp Demand Was Stronger in Second Half 2014, Especially in AsiaWorld-20 Shipments by Destination, Thousand Tonnes per Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

China Western Europe North America Rest of World

A Strong US Dollar Tends to Hold Down Commodity Prices, Including Pulp


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19

USDEUR

Price NBSK China

USDEUR

Source: RISI

Euros,

Source: RISI

US$,

BSK Delivered Cash Costs to Shanghai: Third Quarter 2014 RISI Cost Benchmarking


World Production of Paper and BoardGraphic, Packaging and Specialty and Tissue; Percent Change


2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

3.7%

-2.0%

3.2% 3.0%

5.7%

1.9%

3.9%

2.7%

-0.4%

-5.6%

6.6%

1.0%0.5% 0.7% 1.0%

1.9%

The New Reality for World P&W Demand:Peak Demand Has Already Happened

10 © Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180P&W Production2007 Forecast

Mil

lio

n M

etr

ic T

on

s

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40WorldChinaN. AmericaW. Europe

Demand for Tissue Papers Million Tonnes


Pulp Supply and Risks

• Large BHK capacity expansions around mid-2015– CMPC Guaiba: 1.3 million tpy, mid-2015. Risks?

• Continuing swing from BHK to BSK production– Certainly as long as price gap is >$100/tonne

• Continuing shift from “integrated” to “market” pulp in North America and Europe

• Cost curve is shifting downward…could accelerate if the US “super dollar” reappears• A reprieve for small, inefficient BHK lines in Europe?

• DP demand still growing briskly, pulling some paper grade pulp capacity into DP production


Key Points for the 2015 Forecast• Pulp demand outside of China is growing slowly, so Chinese

inventory swings dominate the demand side– There will be a large increase in Chinese BHK import demand

in 2015• A stronger economic environment in 2015 worldwide will boost

pulp demand, but not by as much as was expected• The next BHK line to start up will be in mid-2015, helping to pull

the industry operating rate (and profitability) down in the middle of the year

• Euro risk is still substantial



Papeles para empaque

© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.15

Is Global Containerboard Still Growing?

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Volume (L)Percent Change (R)


01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%Emerging MarketsMature MarketsGlobal Growth (R)

Mil

lio

ns

Emerging Markets Are Growing Faster


World North Amer-ica

Europe Far East Latin Amer-ica

All Other-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%2001-20082011-2016

But Even They Are Slowing Down

18

The Latin American Markets are Among the Fastest Growing Markets in the WorldPercent Increase in Demand, 2009-2012

Rest of World Latin America North America Europe Asia-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

14.8%12.2%

-2.9%

0.6%

19.1%

9.3% World Average

19

The Growth Markets Can All Be Expected to See Demand Rise with Standard of Living2012 Figures

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140North Amer-

ica

EuropeAsia

Latin Amer-ica

Rest of World

Per Capita GDP, PPP Constant Dollars

Pe

r C

ap

ita

Pa

ck

ag

ing

D

em

an

d k

g/P

ers

on

20

The Latin American Packaging Markets Are Far from Homogenous

0 5 10 15 20 250

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ecuador

Chile

Peru

VenezuelaColombia

Argentina

MexicoBrazil

Guatemala

Dominican Republic

Per Capita GDP, PPP Constant Dollars

Pe

r C

ap

ita

Pa

ck

ag

ing

D

em

an

d k

g/P

ers

on

21

The 10 Largest Latin American Paper Packaging Markets by Tonnage

Brazil37%

Mexico28%

Argentina8%

Chile5%

Colombia5%

Ecuador3%

Venezuela3%

Costa Rica2%

Guatemala2%

Peru2%

All Other5%

22

Brazil Has the Largest Economy in Latin America, and Also the Largest Packaging Market

GDP APC Production0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2009-2012

2013-2015

Av

era

ge

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

R

ate

23

Brazil Stands Out from the Rest of Latin America on the Trade FrontNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Containerboard Boxboard Wrapping Specialty

24

The Mexican Packaging Markets Are More Volatile than the Brazilian Market Due to the Influence of the USA

GDP APC Production-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%2009-20122013-2015

Av

era

ge

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

R

ate

25

Argentina Is One of the Few Countries in Latin America Where Demand Lags Well Behind GDP Growth


1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%2009-20122013-2015

Av

era

ge

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

R

ate

26

Chile Has Turned in Fairly Steady Growth in Paper Packaging Demand


1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%2009-20122013-2015

Av

era

ge

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

R

ate

27

Chile Has Been the Only Country Other Than Brazil to Maintain a Trade SurplusNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Containerboard Boxboard Wrapping Specialty

Conclusions: The Latin American Packaging Markets …• May be small in absolute terms on the global scale

– But contribute significantly to global growth given the high growth potential for the region

• Are quite diverse, reflecting each country’s economic makeup– The markets in any individual country may struggle during a particular

year– But growth in other parts of the region often offsets this– Resulting in more even growth than is seen in other parts of the world

• Are a critically important – For participants located within the markets– As well as those from outside Latin America


Cartón

How Are the Global Markets Coping with China’s Capacity Bulge?

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Global DemandChinese Capacity *

Gro

wth

, Mill

ion

To

nn

es

30

* Realized Capacity Growth 2009-2013, Planned 2014-2015

© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.

Boxboard Demand in the Rest of the World Is Small (5.3 Million Tonnes in 2013) But Growing RapidlyMillion Tonnes and Percent of Global Demand

31

2.82471566754271; 54%

1.144629; 22%

0.982917999999999; 19%

0.304343749474347; 6%

Latin AmericaMiddle EastAfricaOceania

© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved.

Brazilian Exports of Multi-ply Boxboard Compete in Global Markets with the Other Coated Virgin GradesThousand Tonnes

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

50

100

150

200

250Middle EastAsia & OceaniaAfricaEuropeNorth AmericaOther Latin America


33

Latin American Demand to Outpace Capacity Expansion, Leading to Modest Growth in Net Imports for the Region

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%DemandCapacityOperating Rate

Gro

wth

, Mill

ion

To

nn

es

Op

era

tin

g R

ate


Latin America, Africa and the Middle East Will Be the Battle Grounds for Virgin Boxboard ExportsNet Imports, Thousand Tonnes

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

100200300400500600700800900

1,000Latin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastOceania


Take Home Points for Global Boxboard• Demand should continue to grow across the world in

2015-2016• The massive capacity build in China will have an impact on global

trade throughout this period– Especially in the solid bleached and multi-ply virgin sectors

• Current suppliers to the Asian market will be displaced and will be seeking new homes for their exports

• Chinese ivoryboard mills will have costs similar to European mills, and will be competitive in areas where shipping costs are nearly equal

• Latin American and North American mills still have cost advantages over Asian producers, but prices in these regions are above the cost floor



Papeles para impresión

© Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information

World Printing & Writing Paper DemandIs the global market in decline? Yes, its just a matter of degree.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1980

90

100

110

120

-12%

-6%

0%

6%

Volume (L)Percent Change (R)

?

Million Tonnes


Yet, Global UFS May Still Be Growing… Mechanical grades appear to be flat or declining globally

99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

20

30

40

50

60

UFS CFS

Cme Ume

Global Demand, Million Tonnes


Global UFS Demand Growth for 2015 and 2016 Varies by RegionThousand Tonnes, Percent per Year

Global: 211 (0.2%)

76 (2.9%)

-140 (-1.0%) 576 (1.0%)

138 (4.3%)

-42 (-0.7%)

-21 (-2.3%)

-478 (-2.9%)

102 (1.4%)

40

Latin America: Small, Yes… But Growing Market??

* Annual growth rate 2015-2016

UFS largest and growing

Graphic demand fell 4% in 2013 and 1-2% in 2014

Optimistically expecting this to turn slightly positive in 2015-2016

Newsprint only grade in decline

99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415160.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5News -0.9% *UFS 1.4%CFS 1.4%Cme 1.6%Ume 1.6%

00

0 T

on

ne

s


© Copyright 2015RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information41

…The Region’s Imports Are Growing While Producers Focus on Pulp

EBITDA margins are far better in pulp as it leverages the low wood costs better than paper

Newsprint requires softwood or recycled fiber, neither of which is plentiful in Latin America, so it is often imported

Uncoated freesheet exports from Brazil offset by imports elsewhere

All other grades require imports from abroad to fulfill market requirements…CFS imports have inundated certain markets

Operating rates are only 88-90% due in part to imports99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Latin American Net Imports Rise

NewsCFSCmeUmeUFS

Th

ou

san

d T

on

nes

© Copyright 2015RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information42

Mexico…Better Prospects than Most of Latin America Due to Stronger GDP and Link to US Markets

Mexico GDP back to 3% in 2015-2016

Newsprint will not recover but could stagnate ... an improvement from past trends

Uncoated freesheet struggling with slight declines in 2013-2014

RISI Forecast of Renewed Growth in Demand Seems Optimistic and Based on Stronger GDP

99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

News 0.8% *UFS 2.2%CFS 3.4%Cme 3.9%Ume 4.7%

00

0 T

on

ne

s

* Annual growth rate 2015-2016


Comparative Costs for Producing Standard 20 lb/75 gsm Cut Size Office PapersUS Dollars per Tonne, Second Half of 2013

Th

aila

nd

Bra

zil

US

So

uth

Ce

ntr

al .

..

Ind

on

es

ia

No

rdic

Ja

pa

n

Ch

ina

We

ste

rn...

Me

xic

o

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200 Mill Cash Costs SG&A Capital Costs Delivery to Natural Market

43


World Uncoated Freesheet DemandMillion Tonnes, Percent Change

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016North America 9.3 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.9

%ch -4% -5% 0% -5% -3% -3%

Western Europe 7.6 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 %ch -5% -3% -5% 0% -1% -1%

Eastern Europe 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 %ch -3% 2% 1% 1% -2% 0%

Far East 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3%ch 4% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1%

Latin America 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8%ch 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1%

Middle East, Africa, Oceania 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5%ch 5% 6% -4% 3% 3% 3%

Total 53.7 53.6 53.5 53.3 53.4 53.5%ch 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%


Global Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet PaperThousand Tonnes

2,00

02,

001

2,00

22,

003

2,00

42,

005

2,00

62,

007

2,00

82,

009

2,01

02,

011

2,01

22,

013

2,01

42,

015

2,01

613,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

.

45


North American Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper (Thousand tonnes)

46

2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,0163,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000


Latin American Demand for Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper (Thousand Tonnes)

47

2,00

0

2,00

1

2,00

2

2,00

3

2,00

4

2,00

5

2,00

6

2,00

7

2,00

8

2,00

9

2,01

0

2,01

1

2,01

2

2,01

3

2,01

4

2,01

5

2,01

6

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Per Capita Consumption of Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Paper by RegionKG/Person

Europe North America

Asia/Far East

Oceania Middle East

Africa Latin America

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

200020132023


Global Overcapacity Developed in 2011-2013Announced Net Uncoated Woodfree Capacity Changes for 2011-2013 vs. Demand Growth for the Same Period, Thousand Tonnes

Europe N. America Asia, ME, OCE, Afr

Latin America Global-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Capacity GrowthDemand Growth

Note: Asian capacity expansions exclude the offsetting effect of government mandated closures of small, old, polluting mills


Leading to a Rise in Exports from Asia While Brazil’s Net Exports of Uncoated Freesheet Stagnate

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000BrazilIndonesiaChina

Th

ou

sa

nd

To

nn

es

of

Ne

t E

xp

ort

s


UFS Demand and Capacity Changes More Balanced for 2015-2016Announced Net Uncoated Woodfree Capacity Changes for 2015-2016 vs. RISI Forecast of Demand Growth for the Same Period,Thousand Tonnes

Europe N. America Asia, ME, OCE, AFR

Latin America Global-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Capacity Growth

Demand Growth

Note: includes prorated capacity changes for 2014


Uncoated Woodfree Operating RatesNorth American shuts had surprisingly little impact on operating rates due to surge in imports

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201683%

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%N. AmericaW. EuropeAsia

Paper & Board Markets – Global• Improvements in developed economies, led by

robust growth in the USA and the end of recession in Western Europe, will drive improved paper and paperboard demand growth over the next two years.

• This improvement comes even as the Chinese economy slows and Brazil officially enters recession, but the growth of the US economy seems to be domestically fueled.

• A major round of capacity expansion in Asia will put pressure on global tissue and boxboard markets despite projected healthy demand growth.

• Despite major capacity closures by North American producers in 2014, global graphic paper markets remain oversupplied, with stagnant global P&W demand and a negative outlook for newsprint.Figures outside of pie chart are forecast changes

in demand from 2014 to 2016.

Printing & Writing

Newsprint Tissue

Cartonboard/Other

Containerboard

408 million tonnes (% of total)Forecast Change 2014-2016:

6%

6%

0%

-5%34 mt9%

90 mt23%

152 mt38%

105 mt26%

Paper and Board Demand

4%

27 mt7%

8%


Muchas gracias!

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

For more information:

Latin American Forecast

www.risi.com/latinam

Thank you for your attention!

la industria del papel y celulosa latinoamericana: entorno empresarial marina faleiros, senior news...

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