calculo de tasa de crecmiento

8/18/2019 Calculo de Tasa de Crecmiento

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HUANCAVELICA Anexo I: Cálculo Poblacional

CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONALDEPARTAMENTO DE HUANCAVELICA

1. M!TODO ARITM!TICO

CEN"O POBLACI#N$A%o& $Habi'an'e(&

To'al1972 331,6291981 346,7971993 385,1622007 454,797

Ecuación : Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )

a) Combinaciones con dos censos:1972 1981 === > r1 =1972 1993 === > r2 =1972 2007 === > r3 =1981 1993 === > r4 =1981 2007 === > r5 =1993 2007 === > r6 =

b) Combinaciones con tres censos :1972 1981 1993 === > r7 =1972 1981 2007 === > r8 =1972 1993 2007 === > r9 =1981 1993 2007 === > r10 =

c) Combinación con cuatro censos :1972 1981 1993 2007 === > r11 =

d) Aplicando mínimos cuadrados:

t Pf t Pf t ^ 20 454,797 0 0

(14) 385,162 (5,392,268) 196(26) 346,797 (9,016,722) 676 r12 =(35) 331,629 (11,607,015) 1,225-75 1,518,385 (26,016,005) 2,097

Comportamiento hi t!ri"o #e $a e"%a"ione &

Cu)*a Ta(a 1+,1 1+,1 1++- /Cen o 331,629 346,797 385,162 454,797

1 0'51 401,717 401,717 424,588 454,7972 0'77 379,042 379,042 410,608 454,7973 1'06 356,452 356,452 395,971 454,7974 0'92 366,863 366,863 402,808 454,7975 1'20 346,797 346,797 389,484 454,7976 1'29 340,477 340,477 385,162 454,7977 0'74 381,031 381,031 411,863 454,7978 1'02 359,432 359,432 397,945 454,7979 0'98 362,613 362,613 400,036 454,797

10 1'12 352,167 352,167 393,110 454,79711 0'96 363,703 363,703 400,750 454,79712 0'85 372,585 372,585 406,499 454,797

C%r a e$e""iona#a& Po = 454,797r = 1'29

M!TODO ARITM!TICO


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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Cen o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&

'


3/48

. . M!TODO 0EOM!TRICO


To'al U)bano Ru)al1972 0 331,629 01981 0 346,797 01993 0 385,162 02007 0 454,797 0

Ecuación : Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) ^ t

a) Combinaciones con dos censos:1972 1981 === > r1 =1972 1993 === > r2 =1972 2007 === > r3 =1981 1993 === > r4 =

1981 2007 === > r5 =1993 2007 === > r6 =

b) Combinaciones con tres censos :1972 1981 1993 === > r7 =1972 1981 2007 === > r8 =1972 1993 2007 === > r9 =1981 1993 2007 === > r10 =

c) Combinación con cuatro censos :1972 1981 1993 2007 === > r11 =


*+nimo "%a#ra#o & $o Pf = $o Po t $o ( 1 r )*+nimo "%a#ra#o & $o Pf = $o Po t $o ( 1 r )

. / . ^ 2 . /t Pf t ^ 2 t Pf

-26 5'540 676 -144'0 =-14 5'586 196 -78'2 r12 =0 5'658 0 0'0

-40 16'784 872 -222'2

Comportamiento hi t!ri"o #e $a e"%a"ione &

Cu)*a Ta(a 1 +/ 1 +,1 1 ++- /Cen o ----- 331,629 346,797 385,162 454,797

1 0'50 382,194 399,675 424,232 454,7972 0'72 354,404 377,878 411,614 454,7973 0'91 331,629 359,685 400,822 454,7974 0'88 334,896 362,315 402,397 454,7975 1'05 315,731 346,796 393,022 454,7976 1'19 300,180 334,025 385,162 454,7977 0'69 357,670 380,462 413,127 454,7978 0'87 336,353 363,485 403,096 454,7979 0'88 334,928 362,341 402,412 454,797

10 1'04 317,043 347,866 393,675 454,79711 0'86 337,212 364,174 403,507 454,79712 1'08 312,167 343,884 391,242 454,797

C%r a e$e""iona#a& Po = 454,797 ha itante

r = 1'04

400,000

450,000

500,000

M!TODO 0EOM!TRICO


4/48

1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Cen o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&


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-. . M!TODO PARAB#LICO


To'al U)bano Ru)al1972 0 331,629 01981 0 346,797 01993 0 385,162 02007 0 454,797 0

Ecuación : Pf = A + B t + C t ^

a) Combinaciones con dos censos:

b) Combinaciones con tres censos :

t ^ 0 t t ^ 2 Pf 1 -35 1,225 331,6291 -26 676 346,797 et' Coef' =1 -14 196 385,162 et' =

1 -35 1,225 331,6291 -26 676 346,797 et' Coef' =1 0 0 454,797 et' =

1 -35 1,225 331,6291 -14 196 385,162 et' Coef' =1 0 0 454,797 et' =

1 -26 676 346,7971 -14 196 385,162 et' Coef' =1 0 0 454,797 et' =

1972 1981 1993 === > 1 =1 =

C1 =1972 1981 2007 === > 2 =

2 =C2 =

1972 1993 2007 === > 3 =3 =

C3 =1981 1993 2007 === > 4 =

4 =C4 =


t Pf t Pf t ^ 2 Pf t ^ 2 t ^ 3-35 331,629 (11,607,015) 1,225 406,245,525 (42,875)-26 346,797 (9,016,722) 676 234,434,772 (17,576)-14 385,162 (5,392,268) 196 75,491,752 (2,744)

0 454,797 0 0 0 0-75 1,518,385 (26,016,005) 2,097 716,172,049 (63,195)

et' Coef' = 1'920 82,097 (63,195) 8,093,770 et' = 1'144 12

(63,195) 1,996,017 (237,537,260) et' C = 1'337 10


6/48

1972 1981 1993 2007 === > 5 =5 =

C5 =Comportamiento hi t!ri"o #e $a e"%a"ione &

Cu)*a 1 +/ 1 +,1 1 ++- / "u2a'o)iaCen o 331,629 346,797 385,162 454,797 1,518,385

1 330,301 345,469 3 83,834 454,797 1,514,401


7/48

2 331,629 346,797 384,794 454,797 1,518,0173 331,629 347,089 385,162 454,797 1,518,6774 330,939 346,797 385,162 454,797 1,517,6955 331,560 346,958 385,033 454,797 1,518,348

C%r a e$e""iona#a& = 454,797'00 = 5,957'81

C = 69'62

3. . CURVA E4PONENCIAL MODI5ICADA


To'al U)bano Ru)al1972 0 331,629 01981 0 346,797 01993 0 385,162 02007 0 454,797 0

Ecuación : Pf = A + B !t

/ . ./ .2 /2331,629 (35) -11607015 1225 109977793641346,797 (26) -9016722 676 120268159209

385,162 (14) -5392268 196 148349766244454,797 0 0 0 206840311209

1,518,385 (75) -26016005 2097 585436030303

379596'25 -28469718'75-18'75 1406'25 690'75

= 3552'245747376a = 446200'857763301

a) Aplicando mínimos cuadrados:

1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007 === > 5 =5 =

6. "ELECCION DEL MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

C $"%$o #e $a po $a"i!n f%t%ra toman#o "omo referen"ia e$ "re"imiento e etati o#e$ Pai &

1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

M!TODO PARABOLICO

Cen o 1 2 3 4

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&


8/48

a a #e "re"imento #e$ pa+ = 1'60

o Cen o ritm ti"o :eom tri"o Para !$i"o .ponen"ia$*o#ifi"a#o

2007 454,797 454,797 4 54,797 454,797 454,7972008 462,074 460,670 4 59,510 460,824 449,753

2009 469,467 466,543 4 64,271 466,991 453,3052010 476,978 472,417 4 69,082 473,297 456,8582011 484,610 478,290 4 73,943 4 79,742 460,4102012 492,364 484,163 4 78,854 486,327 463,9622013 500,242 490,036 4 83,816 493,050 467,5142014 508,246 495,909 4 88,830 499,913 471,0672015 516,377 501,782 4 93,895 506,915 474,6192016 524,639 507,656 4 99,013 514,057 478,1712017 533,034 513,529 5 04,184 521,337 481,7232018 541,562 519,402 5 09,408 528,757 485,2762019 550,227 525,275 5 14,687 536,316 488,8282020 559,031 531,148 5 20,020 544,015 492,3802021 567,975 537,022 5 25,409 551,852 495,9322022 577,063 542,895 5 30,853 559,829 499,485

"u2a'o)ia 8,218,686 7,981,534 7,870,572 8,078,020 7,574,079Di7e)encia - (237,152) (348,115) (140,666) (644,607)

2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

CURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

Cen o ritm ti"o :eom tri"o Para !$i"o

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&


9/48

0'51 0'77 1'06 0'92 1'20 1'29

0'74 1'02 0'98 1'12

0'96

0'85

"u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia1,518,385 ---1,682,819 164,4341,623,489 105,1041,563,672 45,2871,591,331 72,9461,537,875 19,4901,520,913 2,5281,628,722 110,3371,571,606 53,2211,580,059 61,674

1,552,241 33,8561,582,953 64,5681,606,466 88,081

ha itante


10/48

2005 2010

10 11 12


11/48

0'500'72

0'910'881'051'19

0'690'870'881'04

0'86

0'471'08

"u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia1,518,385 ---1,660,898 142,513 5,0041,598,693 80,3081,546,933 28,5481,554,405 36,0201,510,346 8,0391,474,164 44,2211,606,056 87,6711,557,731 39,3461,554,478 36,0931,513,381 5,0041,559,690 41,3051,502,090 16,295


12/48

2,005 2,010

11 12


13/48

2268 et' = 137817451034491122 et' C = 163269

8190 et' = 490384323724787430 et' C = 577632

10290 et' = 611619474679861130 et' C = 712873

4368 et' = 259052601986553296 et' C = 298510

454,797'006,076'61

71'99

454,797'005,987'60

70'53454,797'00

5,943'8269'28

454,797'005,930'69

68'34

t ^ 41,500,625456,97638,416

01,996,017


14/48

454,797'005,957'81

69'62

Di7e)encia---

3,984


15/48

368292690

37

446,200'863,552'25

2,005 2,010

5


16/48

C%r a a a$e i#a Cre"imiento

454,797

460,670 1'29466,543 1'29472,417 1'29478,290 1'29484,163 1'29490,036 1'29495,909 1'29501,782 1'29507,656 1'29513,529 1'29519,402 1'29525,275 1'29531,148 1'29537,022 1'29542,895 1'29

2,020 2,022 2,024

.ponen"ia$


17/48

ANE4O I: CALCULO POBLACIONAL

1 METODO ARITMETICO

1.1 DATO" HI"TORICO":

Cen(o Poblaci9nTo'al1972 272831981 269191993 197382007 19500

;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = Po ( 1 r t )

a&. Co2binacione( con o( cen(o( :

Cen(o( Ta(a $ ; &1,972 1,981 === > r1 =1,972 1,993 === > r2 =1,972 2,007 === > r3 =1,981 1,993 === > r4 =1,981 2,007 === > r5 =1,993 2,007 === > r6 =

b&. Co2binacione( con ')e( cen(o( :

Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 === >1,972 1,981 2,007 === >1,972 1,993 2,007 === >1,981 1,993 2,007 === >

c&. Co2binaci9n con cua')o cen(o( :

Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

& A


18/48

7 -1'33 36,574 29,8528 -0'83 27,424 24,8299 -0'82 27,410 24,821

10 -1'07 31,216 27,03911 -0'83 27,548 24,905

12 -1'15 32,560 27,776

C%r a e$e""iona#a&

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

METODO ARITMETIC

POBLACION $Hab&

''


19/48

METODO 0EOMETRICO

.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:

Cen(o Poblaci9nTo'al1,972 01,981 01,993 02,007 0

;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = Po ( 1 r ) ^ t


Cen(o( Ta(a $ ; &1,972 1,981 === > r1 =1,972 1,993 === > r2 =1,972 2,007 === > r3 =

1,981 1,993 === > r4 =1,981 2,007 === > r5 =1,993 2,007 === > r6 =


Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 === >1,972 1,981 2,007 === >1,972 1,993 2,007 === >1,981 1,993 2,007 === >

c&. Co2binaci9n con cua')o cen(o( :Cen(o(

1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

& A


20/48

11 -0'32 21,797 21,18212 -0'96 27,367 25,083

C%r a e$e""iona#a& Po =

r =

48,000

48,500

METODO 0EOM


21/48

- METODO PARABOLICO:

-.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:

Cen(o Poblaci9nTo'al

1,972 01,981 01,993 02,007 0

;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = t C t ^ 2

a&. Co2binacione( con ')e( cen(o( :

t ^ 0 t t ^ 2 Pf 1 -35 1,225 27,2831 -26 676 26,9191 -14 196 19,738

1 -35 1,225 27,2831 -26 676 26,9191 0 0 19,500

1 -35 1,225 27,2831 -14 196 19,7381 0 0 19,500

1 -26 676 26,9191 -14 196 19,7381 0 0 19,500

Cen(o(1972 1981 1993 === >

1972 1981 2007 === >

1972 1993 2007 === >

1981 1993 2007 === >

b&. M=ni2o( cua )a o( :

*+nimo "%a#ra#o & Pf = t C t ^ 2

t Pf t Pf t ^ 2

0 19,500 0 0-14 19,738 (276,332) 196-26 26,919 (699,894) 676-35 27,283 (954,905) 1,225

-75 93,440 (1,931,131) 2,097

De'e)2inacion e Coe7icien'e2097 (63,195) (468,631)

-63195 1,996,017 14,596,067

Cen(o(1972 1981 1993 2007

1,970 1,975 1,980 1,985

45,000

45,500

46,000

46,500

47,000

47,500

AoB 161 AoB 162 AoB 163 AoB 164

AoB 170 AoB 171 AoB 172 AoB 173

TIEMP

POBLACION $Hab&


22/48

c&. Co2


23/48

3 METODO E4PONENCIAL:

3.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:


;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = 't

*+nimo "%a#ra#o &

x x27283 -35 -95490526919 -26 -69989419738 -14 -27633219500 0 093440 -75 -1931131

De'e)2inacion e Coe7icien'e23360 -1752000-18'75 1406'25

=a =

Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

3 DETERMINACION DEL MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL


1'29

o Cen o ritm ti"o :eom tri"o

2,007 19,500 19,500 19,5002,008 19,752 19,483 19,5812,009 20,006 19,466 19,6612,010 20,264 19,450 19,7432,011 20,526 19,433 19,824

0 2,012 20,791 19,416 19,9061 2,013 21,059 19,399 19,9882 2,014 21,330 19,382 20,0713 2,015 21,606 19,366 20,1534 2,016 21,884 19,349 20,2375 2,017 22,167 19,332 20,3206 2,018 22,453 19,315 20,4047 2,019 22,742 19,298 20,4888 2,020 23,036 19,282 20,5739 2,021 23,333 19,265 20,658

10 2,022 23,634 19,248 20,743"u2a'o)ia 344,082 309,985 321,849Di7e)encia - (34,097) (22,233)

a a #e "re"imento referen"ia$ epartamenta$(1993-2007) =


24/48


25/48

DE LA PROVINCIA DE CA"TROVIRRE8NA

-0'15-1'32-0'82-2'22-1'06-0'09

Ta(a $ ; &r7 = -1'33r8 = -0'83r9 = -0'82

r10 = -1'07

Ta(a $ ; &=== > r11 = -0'8

Ta(a $ ; &r 12 ===> -1'15

1++- / "u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia1+ /-, 1+ 6 +- 33 19,913 19,500 80,261 13,17923,907 19,500 109,231 15,79122,011 19,500 93,537 9728,311 19,500 181,879 88,43922,898 19,500 100,318 6,87819,738 19,500 79,290 14,150

al no haber tasa positiva smenor tasa negativa


26/48

23,977 19,500 109,903 16,46322,048 19,500 93,801 36122,044 19,500 93,775 33522,944 19,500 100,699 7,25922,080 19,500 94,033 59323,226 19,500 103,062 9,622

Po = 19,500 ha itanter = -0'09


27/48

Poblaci9n u)bana Poblaci9n Ru)al

27,283 -27,28326,919 -26,91919,738 -19,73819,500 -19,500

-0'15-1'53-0'95-2'55-1'23-0'09

Ta(a $ ; &r7 = -0'76r8 = -0'72r9 = -0'49

r10 = 0'41

Ta(a $ ; &=== > r11 = -0'3

.^2 ./t^2 t Pf

1,225 -155676 -115196 -60

0 02,097 -331

Ta(a $ ; &r 12 ===> -0'96

1++- / "u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia

1+ /-, 1+ 6 +- 33 19,912 19,500 80,228 13,212

24,197 19,500 106,257 12,81722,304 19,500 94,112 67228,006 19,500 133,903 40,46323,197 19,500 99,713 6,27319,738 19,500 79,282 14,15821,685 19,500 90,366 3,07421,564 19,500 89,644 3,79620,874 19,500 85,619 7,82118,407 19,500 72,307 21,133

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

&

Se elige la menor diferencipositivas, por ser una situade crecimiento en la provin


28/48

20,388 19,500 82,868 10,57222,331 19,500 94,282 842

19,500 ha itante0'41

TRICO


29/48


27,283 -27,28326,919 -26,91919,738 -19,73819,500 -19,500

etermina"ion #e Coefi"ienteet' Coef' = 2268 et' = -3767649

et' = 3829854 et' C = -60261

et' Coef' = 8190 et' = -3826967et' = 159705000 et' C = -57307

et' Coef' = 10290 et' = 1233918et' = 200655000 et' C = 100632

et' Coef' = 4368 et' = 1293236et' = 85176000 et' C = 97678

Ta(a $ ; & 1 = 19,500'00

1 = -1,661'22C1 = -26'57 2 = 19,500'00

2 = -467'27C2 = -7'00 3 = 19,500'00

3 = 119'91C3 = 9'78 4 = 19,500'00

4 = 296'07C4 = 22'36

Pf t ^ 2 t ^ 3 t ^ 4

0 0 03,868,648 (2,744) 38,416

18,197,244 (17,576) 456,97633,421,675 (42,875) 1,500,625

55,487,567 (63,195) 1,996,017

1'920 8et' Coef' = -1'300 10

et' = 9'928 8et' C =

Coe7icien'e(=== > 5 = 19,500'00

5 = -67'68C5 = 5'17

1,990 1,995 2,000 2,005 2,010

AoB 165 AoB 166 AoB 167 AoB 168 AoB 169

$A%o(&


30/48

/ "u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia1+ 6 +- 33 19,500 146,873 53,43319,500 98,372 4,93219,500 89,514 3,92619,500 102,688 9,24819,500 93,915 475

19,500'00(67'68)

5'17

85 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


31/48


27,283 -27,28326,919 -26,91919,738 -19,73819,500 -19,500

x1225 744362089676 724632561196 389588644

0 3802500002097 2238833294

690'75-259'3282663771

18497'5950054289

Coe7icien'e(=== > 5 = 18,497'60

5 = (259'33)

;%ente& nforme #e - 2007

Para !$i"o .ponen"ia$ C%r a*o#ifi"a#o $e i#a

19,500 19,500 19,500 0'4119,437 18,238 19,58119,385 17,979 19,661

19,343 17,720 19,74319,312 17,460 19,82419,291 17,201 19,90619,280 16,942 19,98819,280 16,682 20,07119,289 16,423 20,15319,310 16,164 20,23719,340 15,904 20,32019,381 15,645 20,40419,432 15,386 20,48819,494 15,126 20,57319,566 14,867 20,65819,648 14,608 20,743

310,289 265,845

(33,793) (78,237)

POBLA


32/48


33/48

ANE4O I: CALCULO POBL

1 METODO ARITMETICO

1.1 DATO" HI"TORICO":

Cen(o Poblaci9nTo'al1972 29191981 22901993 18852007 177"

;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = Po ( 1 r t )


Cen(o( Ta(a $ ; &1,972 1,981 === > r1 =1,972 1,993 === > r2 =1,972 2,007 === > r3 =1,981 1,993 === > r4 =1,981 2,007 === > r5 =1,993 2,007 === > r6 =


Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 === >1,972 1,981 2,007 === >1,972 1,993 2,007 === >1,981 1,993 2,007 === >


Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

& A


34/48


35/48

METODO 0EOMETRICO

.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:


;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = Po ( 1 r ) ^ t


Cen(o( Ta(a $ ; &1,972 1,981 === > r1 =1,972 1,993 === > r2 =1,972 2,007 === > r3 =1,981 1,993 === > r4 =1,981 2,007 === > r5 =1,993 2,007 === > r6 =


Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 === >1,972 1,981 2,007 === >1,972 1,993 2,007 === >1,981 1,993 2,007 === >


Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

& A


36/48

11 -1'08 2,596 2,35412 -1'18 2,688 2,416

C%r a e$e""iona#a& Po =r =

0 0 0 0 0

0

0'1

0'2

0'3

0'4

0'5

0'6

0'7

0'8

0'9

1

METODO 0EOMETRICO

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&


37/48

- METODO PARABOLICO:

-.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:


;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = t C t ^ 2

a&. Co2binacione( con ')e( cen(o( :

t ^ 0 t t ^ 2 Pf 1 -35 1,225 2,9191 -26 676 2,2901 -14 196 1,885

1 -35 1,225 2,9191 -26 676 2,2901 0 0 1,774

1 -35 1,225 2,9191 -14 196 1,8851 0 0 1,774

1 -26 676 2,2901 -14 196 1,8851 0 0 1,774

Cen(o(1972 1981 1993 === >

1972 1981 2007 === >

1972 1993 2007 === >

1981 1993 2007 === >

b&. M=ni2o( cua )a o( :

*+nimo "%a#ra#o & Pf = t C t ^ 2

t Pf t Pf t ^ 2

0 1,774 0 0-14 1,885 (26,390) 196-26 2,290 (59,540) 676-35 2,919 (102,165) 1,225

-75 8,868 (188,095) 2,097

De'e)2inacion e Coe7icien'e2097 (63,195) (55,045)

-63195 1,996,017 1,773,197

Cen(o(1972 1981 1993 2007


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c&. Co2


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3 METODO E4PONENCIAL:

3.1 DATO" HI"TORICO" A NIVEL DI"TRITAL:

Cen(o Poblaci9nTo'al

1,972 01,981 01,993 02,007 0

;< & -Cen o a"iona$e & 1972, 1981,1993 / 2007

Ecuaci9n : Pf = 't

*+nimo "%a#ra#o &

x x2919 -35 -1021652290 -26 -595401885 -14 -263901774 0 08868 -75 -188095

De'e)2inacion e Coe7icien'e2217 -166275

-18'75 1406'25 =

a =

Cen(o(1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007

3 DETERMINACION DEL MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL


0'41

o Cen o ritm ti"o :eom tri"o

2,007 1,774 1,774 1,7742,008 1,781 1,759 1,7882,009 1,789 1,743 1,8022,010 1,796 1,728 1,8172,011 1,803 1,713 1,8312,012 1,811 1,697 1,845

0 2,013 1,818 1,682 1,8601 2,014 1,826 1,666 1,8752 2,015 1,833 1,651 1,8903 2,016 1,841 1,636 1,9054 2,017 1,849 1,620 1,9205 2,018 1,856 1,605 1,9356 2,019 1,864 1,590 1,9507 2,020 1,872 1,574 1,9668 2,021 1,879 1,559 1,9819 2,022 1,887 1,543 1,997

10 2,023 1,895 1,528 2,013"u2a'o)ia 31,175 28,067 32,150Di7e)encia - (3,108) 975

a a #e "re"imento referen"ia$ pro in"ia$ (1993-2007) =

8,000

9,000

10,000

CURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL


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2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Cen o ritm ti"o :eom tri"o

TIEMPO $A%o(&

POBLACION $Hab&


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ACIONAL EL DI"TRITO DE HUACHO"

-2'39-1'69-1'12-1'47-0'87-0'42

Ta(a $ ; &r7 = -1'87r8 = -1'26r9 = -1'18

r10 = -0'91

Ta(a $ ; &=== > r11 = -1'3

Ta(a $ ; &r 12 ===> -1'48

1++- / "u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia1 ,,6 1 //3 , ,@, 2,668 1,774 20,091 11,2232,322 1,774 11,585 2,7172,104 1,774 9,300 4322,235 1,774 10,549 1,6812,018 1,774 8,628 2401,885 1,774 7,730 1,138


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2,402 1,774 12,750 3,8822,153 1,774 9,736 8682,125 1,774 9,480 6122,031 1,774 8,724 1442,164 1,774 9,838 9702,237 1,774 10,573 1,705

Po = 1,774 ha itanter = -0'87

'5 0'6 0'7 0'8 0'9 1


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Poblaci9n u)bana Poblaci9n Ru)al2,919 -2,9192,290 -2,2901,885 -1,8851,774 -1,774

-2'66-2'06-1'41-1'61-0'98-0'43

Ta(a $ ; &r7 = -2'00r8 = -1'26r9 = -1'10

r10 = 0'79

Ta(a $ ; &=== > r11 = -1'1

.^2 ./t^2 t Pf

1,225 -121676 -87196 -46

0 02,097 -254

Ta(a $ ; &r 12 ===> -1'18

1++- / "u2a'o)ia Di7e)encia

1 ,,6 1 //3 , ,@, 2,588 1,774 12,496 3,6282,374 1,774 10,873 2,0052,165 1,774 9,426 558

2,226 1,774 9,834 9662,035 1,774 8,600 2681,885 1,774 7,709 1,1592,353 1,774 10,715 1,8472,120 1,774 9,132 2642,072 1,774 8,830 381,588 1,774 6,152 2,716


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2,066 1,774 8,790 782,095 1,774 8,973 105

1,774 ha itante0'79

1 1 1 1 1 1


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Poblaci9n u)bana Poblaci9n Ru)al2,919 -2,9192,290 -2,2901,885 -1,8851,774 -1,774

etermina"ion #e Coefi"ienteet' Coef' = 2268 et' = 79575

et' = 4624242 et' C = 3903

et' Coef' = 8190 et' = 141920et' = 14529060 et' C = 11710

et' Coef' = 10290 et' = 88445et' = 18254460 et' C = 12145

et' Coef' = 4368 et' = 26100et' = 7748832 et' C = 4338

Ta(a $ ; & 1 = 1,774'00

1 = 35'09C1 = 1'72 2 = 1,774'00

2 = 17'33C2 = 1'43 3 = 1,774'00

3 = 8'60C3 = 1'18 4 = 1,774'00

4 = 5'98C4 = 0'99

Pf t ^ 2 t ^ 3 t ^ 4

0 0 0369,460 (2,744) 38,416

1,548,040 (17,576) 456,9763,575,775 (42,875) 1,500,625

5,493,275 (63,195) 1,996,017

1'920 8et' Coef' = 2'186 9

et' = 2'398 8

et' C =

Coe7icien'e(=== > 5 = 1,774'00

5 = 11'39C5 = 1'25


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2,919 -2,9192,290 -2,2901,885 -1,8851,774 -1,774

x1225 8520561676 5244100196 3553225

0 31470762097 20464962

690'75-31'5888526963

1624'7090119435

Coe7icien'e(=== > 5 = 1,624'71

5 = (31'59)

n a e a$ "%a#ro anterior

Para !$i"o .ponen"ia$ C%r a*o#ifi"a#o $e i#a

1,774 1,774 1,774 0'791,787 1,593 1,7881,802 1,562 1,802

1,819 1,530 1,8171,840 1,498 1,8311,862 1,467 1,8451,887 1,435 1,8601,915 1,404 1,8751,945 1,372 1,8901,978 1,340 1,9052,013 1,309 1,9202,050 1,277 1,9352,090 1,246 1,9502,133 1,214 1,9662,178 1,182 1,9812,226 1,151 1,9972,276 1,119 2,013

33,575 23,4732,400 (7,702)

hquispe:no se elige estdiferencia por ttendencia decr


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2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024

Para !$i"o .ponen"ia$

re e a a enciudad !!!

calculo de tasa de crecmiento

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