UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL JORGE BASADRE GROHMANN

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL JORGE BASADRE GROHMANNESCUELA ACADEMICO PROFESIONAL INGENIERIA COMERCIALFORMULACION Y PREPARACION DE PROYECTOS I

CASO PRCTICOESCUELA ACADEMICO PROFESIONAL INGENIERIA COMERCIALINTEGRANTES:

EJERCICIODATOS: INFLACION5% Crecimiento A7% Crecimiento B5% Costo Fijo16%de las ventas Gast. Financiero4%de las ventas Impuesto30% Inversin 20,000.00 PLAN DE VENTAS:

PRODUCTO012345

A2000.002140.002289.802450.092621.59

B5000.005250.005512.505788.136077.53

PRECIOS:

PRODUCTO012345

A1010.5011.0311.5812.1612.76

B2021.0022.0523.1524.3125.53

MODELO:VALORACION DE VENTAS

PRODUCTO012345

A 21,000.00 23,593.50 26,507.30 29,780.95 33,458.90

B 105,000.00 115,762.50 127,628.16 140,710.04 155,132.82

TOTAL: 126,000.00 139,356.00 154,135.45 170,490.99 188,591.72

EVALUACION DE PLAN DE VENTAS:

VANS/. 563,548.19

TASA11%

PROYECCIONES DE COSTOS UNITARIOS

PRODUCTO012345

A66.306.626.957.297.66

B1212.6013.2313.8914.5915.32

PRESUPUESTO DE COSTO DE PRODUCCION:

PRODUCTO012345

A12,600.0014,156.1015,904.3817,868.5720,075.34

B63,000.0069,457.5076,576.8984,426.0393,079.69

TOTAL:75,600.0083,613.6092,481.27102,294.59113,155.03

PRESUPUESTO DE COSTOS FIJOS:

DETALLE012345

COSTOS FIJOS20,160.0022,296.9624,661.6727,278.5630,174.67

PRESUPUESTO DE GASTOS FINANCIEROS:

DETALLE012345

GASTOS FINANCIEROS:5,040.005,574.246,165.426,819.647,543.67

MODELO DE FLUJO DE CAJA:

RUBRO CONTABLE012345

VENTAS126,000.00139,356.00154,135.45170,490.99188,591.72

(-) COSTO DE VENTAS75,600.0083,613.6092,481.27102,294.59113,155.03

UTILIDAD BRUTA50,400.0055,742.4061,654.1868,196.4075,436.69

(-) COSTOS FIJOS20,160.0022,296.9624,661.6727,278.5630,174.67

UTILIDAD OPERATIVA30,240.0033,445.4436,992.5140,917.8445,262.01

(-) GASTOS FINANCIEROS5,040.005,574.246,165.426,819.647,543.67

UTILIDAD ANTES DE IMP25,200.0027,871.2030,827.0934,098.2037,718.34

(-) IMP. RENTA7,560.008,361.369,248.1310,229.4611,315.50

UTILIDAD NETA17,640.0019,509.8421,578.9623,868.7426,402.84

(+) DEPRECIACION

(-) INVERSION 20,000.00

FLUJO DE CAJA-20,000.0017,640.0019,509.8421,578.9623,868.7426,402.84

VAN 58,896.75

Tasa11%

ESCENARIOS:

VARIACION:10%

CANTIDADES VENDIDAS

PESIMISTA1,800.001,926.002,060.822,205.082,359.43

PROB2000.002140.002289.802450.092621.59

OPTIMISTA220023542518.782695.09462883.75122

PES4,500.004,725.004,961.255,209.315,469.78

PROB5000.005250.005512.505788.136077.53

OPT550057756063.756366.93756685.28438

PRECIOS:12345

PES9.459.9210.4210.9411.49

PROB10.5011.0311.5812.1612.76

OPT11.5512.1312.7313.3714.04

PES18.9019.8520.8421.8822.97

PROB21.0022.0523.1524.3125.53

OPT23.1024.2625.4726.7428.08

Informe @RISK Salida para VAN.PROYECTO

Informacin de resumen de simulacin

Nombre de libro de trabajoANALISIS PROY.xlsx

Nmero de simulaciones1

Nmero de iteraciones100

Nmero de entradas20

Nmero de salidas1

Tipo de muestreoLatino Hipercbico

Tiempo de inicio de simulacin20/05/2015 17:29

Duracin de simulacin00:00:05

Generador de # aleatorioMersenne Twister

Semilla aleatoria588139935

Estadsticos resumen para VAN.PROYECTO

EstadsticosPercentil

MnimoS/. 492,053.035%S/. 522,783.25

MximoS/. 658,968.6910%S/. 527,957.88

MediaS/. 563,325.8515%S/. 533,280.36

Desv EstS/. 30,142.6120%S/. 537,336.68

Varianza908576922.425%S/. 540,292.55

Indice de sesgo0.42034175530%S/. 542,197.36

Curtosis3.09230098335%S/. 546,839.83

MedianaS/. 558,934.5640%S/. 551,441.81

ModaS/. 541,953.9045%S/. 554,660.58

X izquierdaS/. 522,783.2550%S/. 558,934.56

P izquierda5%55%S/. 564,270.63

X derechaS/. 616,793.4460%S/. 566,532.31

P derecha95%65%S/. 574,348.04

Diff XS/. 94,010.1870%S/. 578,186.42

Diff P90%75%S/. 581,613.01

#Errores080%S/. 592,241.77

Filtro mnApagado85%S/. 595,071.43

Filtro mxApagado90%S/. 601,964.96

#Filtrado095%S/. 616,793.44

Cambio en la estadstica de salida de VAN.PROYECTO

JerarquaNombreInferiorSuperior

1PvPB5S/. 540,579.04S/. 596,841.91

2PvPB4S/. 543,773.07S/. 598,546.30

3PvPB2S/. 536,187.65S/. 588,170.42

4QvPB4S/. 539,463.98S/. 589,897.36

5QvPB1S/. 534,442.67S/. 581,067.50

6PvPA3S/. 547,038.68S/. 589,893.93

7QvPB5S/. 537,871.16S/. 579,487.09

8PvPA4S/. 545,168.58S/. 585,620.12

9QvPB3S/. 543,083.63S/. 581,732.51

10QvPA4S/. 546,271.51S/. 584,763.27