sergio m. vicente serrano - obealimentÀria · 10/5/2016 · sergio m. vicente serrano instituto...
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L’aigua passat, present i futur a nivell de conca
Sergio M. Vicente Serrano
Instituto Pirenaico de EcologíaConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
La cuenca del Segre cubre aproximadamente 13,000 km2
(Segre: 8167 km2, Noguera Pallaresa: 2807 km2, Noguera Ribagorzana: 2061
km2).
El relieve causa notables contrastes climáticos y paisajísticos.
En el Pirineo, la precipitación excede los 1100 mm/año, pero en las tierras bajas la precipitación media annual es menor de 300 mm/año.
La evapotranspiración de referencia annual es de menos de 600 mm/año en las cabeceras, pero excede los 1100 mm/año en el Sur.
Intensas transformaciones humanas, sobre todo en la parte baja de la cuenca, con el desarrollo de amplias áreas de regadíos (144,000 ha) y la construcción de una importante red de embalses.
Amplias transformaciones antrópicas
Cambios de usos del suelo
1957 2008
Els canvis observats en les cobertes del sòl entre 1970 i 2005 mostren processos d’aforestació, abandonament agrícola i expansió urbana
Font: MCA, Mapa de Conreus i Aprofitaments SIOSE, Sistema d’Informació d’Ocupació del Sòl
+ 5.2% +0.3%
-2.2%
L’aforestació (km2) s’ha produït en zones de matollar, prats i pastures i minoritàriament en zones agrícoles
Annual
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(Hm
3 )
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Winter
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Pr
ecip
itatio
n (H
m3 )
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Spring
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(Hm
3 )
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Summer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(Hm
3 )
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Autumn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(Hm
3 )
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
-16.2%p = 0.03
2.3%p = 0.54
-44.7%p < 0.01
-10.6%p = 0.44
-2.8%p = 0.92
Precipitación
Cambios en el clima
Annual
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ETo
(Hm
3 )
11600
11800
12000
12200
12400
12600
12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
Winter
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010ET
o (H
m3 )
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Spring
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ETo
(Hm
3 )
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
Summer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ETo
(Hm
3 )
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
Autumn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ETo
(Hm
3 )
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
6.4%p < 0.01
7.2%p = 0.2
8.5%p < 0.01
4.9%p = 0.04
3.3%p = 0.18
Demanda atmosférica
Annual
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
eam
flow
(Hm
3 )
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Winter
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
eam
flow
(Hm
3 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
Spring
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
100
200
300
400
500
600
Summer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Autumn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
-27.6%p = 0.04
-15.5%p = 0.06
-40.6%p < 0.01
-17.1%p = 0.23
-30.9%p = 0.07
Annual
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
eam
flow
(Hm
3 )
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Winter
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
eam
flow
(Hm
3 )
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Spring
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Summer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Autumn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w (H
m3 )
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
-61.8%p < 0.01
-57.3%p < 0.01
-66.9%p < 0.01
-59.6%p < 0.01
-62.6%p < 0.01
SEROSORGANYA
Evolución de los caudales
Serós (-61.2%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Balaguer (-90.5%)
Oliana (-33.7%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Organyá (-26.4%)
Seo d'Urgell (-25.1%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Puigcerdá (-31.5%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Piñana (-66.8%)
La P. de Segur (-15.7%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stan
dard
ized
ann
ual s
trea
mflo
w
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Pont de Suert (-27.5%)
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-100
-50
0
50
100
Organyà
Serós
Puigcerdà
Balaguer
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Stre
amflo
w m
agni
tude
of c
hang
e (%
)
-100
-50
0
50
100
Pont de Suert
Pobla de Segur
Pinyana
Puigcerdà
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pont de Suert1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100Organyà
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
La Pobla de Segur
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
Seròs
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t0
20
40
60
80
100
Pinyana
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100Balaguer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oliana
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Run
off c
oeffi
cien
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
-53.9%p < 0.01
-87.4%p < 0.01
-14.4%p = 0.07
-57.2%p < 0.01
-2.9%p = 0.24
12.7%p = 0.22
-12.2%p = 0.18
-3.9%p = 0.37
Cambios en la relación clima-caudal
Serós
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
anflo
w
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w
-1500-1000-500
0500
100015002000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Pre
cipi
tatio
n
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
ETo
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
r2 = 0.72
Puigcerdá
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
anflo
w
0
50
100
150
200
250
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w
-60-40-20
0204060
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Stre
amflo
w
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pre
cipi
tatio
n
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
ETo
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
r2 = 0.67
Pont de Suert
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
ObservedPredicted
La. P. de Segur
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S%
of c
hang
e-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Puigcerdà
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Organyà
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pinyana
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
* **
Oliana
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Seròs
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S%
of c
hang
e
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
* **
Balaguer
O N D J F M A My J Jl A S
% o
f cha
nge
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0 * *** * *
**
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep.
Aver
age
mon
thly
ext
ract
ions
(Hm
3 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Can
al fl
ow (H
m3 )
100120140160180200220240260280
Demanda de agua
Cambios en los regímenes fluviales
Escales
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Stor
age
(Hm
3 )
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Canelles + Santa Anna
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
40
60
80
100
120
Sto
rage
(Hm
3 )
200
220
240
260
280
300Talarn
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
20406080
100120140160180200220
Stor
age
(Hm
3 )
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Camarasa
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Stor
age
(Hm
3 )
60
80
100
120
140
160Oliana
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Stor
age
(Hm
3 )
60
70
80
90
100Rialb
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Inflo
w/O
utflo
w (H
m3 )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Stor
age
(Hm
3 )
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% c
hang
e In
flow
/Out
flow
-100
-50
0
50
100
% c
hang
e in
Sto
rage
-40
-20
0
20
40Escales (1960)
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% c
hang
e In
flow
/Out
flow
-100
-50
0
50
100
% c
hang
e in
Sto
rage
-400
-200
0
200
400Canelles + Santa Anna (1968)
* * * * * * * * * * * *
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% c
hang
e In
flow
/Out
flow
-100
-50
0
50
100
% c
hang
e in
Sto
rage
-40
-20
0
20
40Talarn
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% c
hang
e In
flow
/Out
flow
-100
-50
0
50
100%
cha
nge
in S
tora
ge
-40
-20
0
20
40Camarasa
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% c
hang
e In
flow
/Out
flow
-100
-50
0
50
100
% c
hang
e in
Sto
rage
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
* * * * * * * *
Oliana
Evolución de eventos extremos: inundaciones
Serós
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
% C
hang
e (1
950-
2013
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Pinyana
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Balaguer
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oliana
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Arabó
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
% C
hang
e (1
950-
2013
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Valira
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Puigcerdá
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
La Seo
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Organya
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
% C
hang
e (1
950-
2013
)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
L. P. Segur
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Pont de Suert
Percentile0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Serós
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995
Spea
rman
's R
ho
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Balaguer
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Pinyana
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Oliana
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Serós
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995
Spe
arm
an's
Rho
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Pont de Suert
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
P. de Segur
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Arabó
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995
Spe
arm
an's
Rho
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Puigcerdá
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Valira
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
La Seo
Percentile
0.9500 0.9800 0.9900 0.9950 0.9990 0.9995-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Serós
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.999
per
c.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.95
perc
.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Balaguer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.999
per
c.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.95
perc
.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Organya
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.999
per
c.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6N
umbe
r of d
ays
per y
ear >
0.9
5 pe
rc.
0
20
40
60
80
La Seo
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.999
per
c.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Num
ber o
f day
s pe
r yea
r > 0
.95
perc
.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Serós
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Balaguer
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Oliana
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Organyá
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
a5 a5
Seo d'Urgell
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Puigcerdá
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSI
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Evolución de eventos extremos: sequías
Valira
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
La Seo
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Arabó
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Puigcerdá
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Time scale0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
0 10203040Pe
arso
n's
r0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
0 10 203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010 2015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
P. Segur
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Pont de Suert
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015S
SI
-3-2-10123
Organya
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
Serós
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Balaguer
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Pinyana
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Oliana
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SS
I
-3-2-10123
Time scale0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
195019551960 1965 1970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
0 10203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
0 10 20 30 40
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
0 10 203040
Pear
son'
s r
0.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
1950 195519601965 1970 1975 1980198519901995 2000 2005 20102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
1950195519601965197019751980 1985199019952000 200520102015
SP
EI
-3-2-10123
Muchas gracias por su atención
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