josé luis cordeiro - foro ingeniería - cime - 24 marzo 2010
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Ponencia realizada por José Luis Cordeiro en el Foro: "El futuro de las tecnologías, y las tecnologías del futuro. Cómo ir de Venezuela a la NASA y no morir en el intento", organizado por el Centro de Innovación y Modernización Empresarial (CIME). 24 de marzo de 2010 Facultad de Ingeniería ULA
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- 1. Jos Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela Fundador, Caracas, Venezuela Singularity University Profesor, NASA Ames, California, USA
- 2. www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 3. Venezuela vs. Benesuela ? Escenarios Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100) Benesuela Venezuela www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 4. Venezuela: entre Suiza y Hait Escenarios? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 0 Hait? Suiza? Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 5. World Future Society m
- 6. World Future Society m
- 7.
- 8. 2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 Mxico 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1
- 9. Mientras ms rpido vamos, ms lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 10. Podemos estudiar el futuro? Podemos estudiar el clima ? Podemos estudiar las estrellas ? Podemos estudiar la Tierra ? Podemos estudiar el pasado ? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 11. Del Mediterr neo al Pacfico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA
- 12.
- 13.
- 14.
- 15.
- 16.
- 17. A new face for the world
- 18. A new behind for the world
- 19. China: (Chung Kuo)
- 20.
- 21. Singularity University
- 22.
- 23. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
- www.singularity.com
- Bill Gates
- Ley de Moore
- 24.
- 25.
- 26.
- 27.
- 28.
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
- 32.
- 33.
- 34. Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days
- 35. Android Google Phone (gPhone)
- 36.
- 37.
- 38.
- 39.
- 40.
- 41.
- 42. Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces The 3 waves of Alvin Toffler
- 43. Japn: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 aos
- 44. Development is faster and faster
- 45.
- 46. Energy waves : decarbonization
- 47. Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
- 48. Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita
- La Edad de Piedra se acab y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petrleo se acabar pronto y no por falta de petrleo.
- 49. Tres polticas petroleras:
- Del pasado (basada en precios)
- Del presente (basada en volmenes)
- Del futuro (basada en valor agregado)
- 50. From manufacturing to mindfacturing
- 51. We need to add value
- 52.
- Finlandia
- (siglo XIX)
- Pas pobre
- Atrasado
- Colonia
- Idioma brbaro
- 53. Bioenergy and eternal energy
- Photosynthesis:
-
- CO 2 + 2 H 2 O + light
-
- -> (CH 2 O) + O 2 + H 2 O
- From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
- Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria
- 54. NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2002 Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5) Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) Technology Demos (TRL 6-7) LEGEND R&D Decision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7) Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP Technology Testbeds MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Component-Level Flight Experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Large structures for large apertures & solar sails Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments High Efficiency Arrays for S/C SSP Concept definition complete Ground Test very large deployable structures 1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demos (SPG/SEPS/WPT) High Power SEPS For Science Probes Lunar Power, Large SEPS High-Power GEO CommSats MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo SSP Model System Concept(s) MSC 4+ (2020+) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
- 55.
- 56. JAXA : Space Solar Power Strategy
- 57. Qu es el futuro?
- El futuro ya no es
- lo que era antes!
- Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.
- Mafalda
- 58. Attitudes towards the future
- Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future
- Reactive ( fire fighter ) Respond
- Preactive ( insurer ) Prepare
- Proactive ( builder ) Create
- 59.
- 60. Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
- 61. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
- First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
- Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
- Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
- 62. Technologies of the past
- 30 years ago
-
- Personal computers
- 20 years ago
-
- Cell phones
- 10 years ago
- What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?
-
- Immortal (ageless) cells!
- 63. Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org
- 64. NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
- 65. Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
- 66. Technological convergence is accelerating and everything is information
- 67. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near
- www.singularity.com
- Bill Gates
- Ley de Moore
- 68. www.top500.org
- 69. Moores Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5
ICn 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
- 3D ICs
- Quantum computing
- Subatomic particles
- 70. 1. Nano ( N BIC)
- 71. Nanotec h nolog y: www.nano.gov
- 72.
- 73. 2. Bio (N B IC)
- 74. The glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
- 75.
- 76. Dolly: the clone
- 77. Singapore: Biopolis 2012
- 78. Russia: ???
- 79. Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy )
- 80.
- 81. The attack of the clones?
- 82. Synthetic biology is born
- Variola virus (smallpox)
-
- Genes: 197
-
- Base pairs: 185,000
- Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)
-
- Genes: 485
-
- Base pairs: 580,000
- Homo sapiens sapiens
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- Genes: ~25,000
-
- Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
- 83. 3. Info (NB I C)
- 84. MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop
- 85.
- 86.
- 87.
- 88.
- 89. The 3 Laws of Knowledge
- Law of Nodes
-
- ( N units )
- Law of Metcalfe
-
- ( N x N conexions )
- Law of Reed
-
- ( exp.N Knowledge )
- 90. Global brain?
- 91.
- 92. 4. Cogno (NBI C )
- 93. The triune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973
- Reptilian (primitive): instincts
- Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions
- Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence
- 94. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
- 95. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
- 96. Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org
- 97.
- 1 brain
- 10 11 neurones
- 10 14 synapsis
- 10 17 computations
- (per second)
- And the mind?
- And the spirit?
- And the soul?
- 98. Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.
- 99. External brain implants
- 100. Robots in Japan and Korea
- 101. Asimo (Honda) evolution
- 102.
- 103.
- 104.
- 105.
- 106.
- 107.
- 108.
- 109.
- 110. Robots are good in Japan
- 111.
- 112. Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org
- 113. Humans and machines! Humans or machines?
- 114. Marvin Minsky (MIT): Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be us !
- 115. Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny!
- 116. Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humans trans-monkeys ?
- 117.
- 118. Transhumanism, yes... but carefully Homo sapiens sapiens
- 119. Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic )
- 120. Stephen Hawking
- 121. Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
- 122. Ronald Reagan: Alzheimers
- 123. Space: the final frontier?
- 124. SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011
- 125. The brain: the final frontier!
- 126. Yin-yang (and more yin-yang )
- 127. Light up the world
- 128.
- 129. The world is one
- 130. Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
- 131.
- 132.
- 133.
- 134.
- 135. Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org
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