eva escenarios

ProyeccinDeVentas-RLAoPeriodoMesVentas en dlaresPRONSTICOPRONSTICO ANUALIZADOCRECIMIENTO RESPECTO AL AO 111Enero8,0007,6032Febrero7,9007,6123Marzo7,5007,6224Abril7,3507,6315Mayo7,3507,6406Junio7,5007,6507Julio8,0007,6598Agosto7,3507,6689Septiembre7,4007,67710Octubre7,5007,68711Noviembre7,5007,69612Diciembre8,5007,70591,850Resumen213Enero7,71414Febrero7,724Estadsticas de la regresin15Marzo7,733Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.091943479916Abril7,742Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.008453603517Mayo7,751R^2 ajustado-0.090701036218Junio7,761Error tpico379.475238818619Julio7,770Observaciones1220Agosto7,77921Septiembre7,789ANLISIS DE VARIANZA22Octubre7,798Grados de libertad23Noviembre7,807Regresin124Diciembre7,81693,1841.45%Residuos10325Enero7,826Total1126Febrero7,83527Marzo7,844Coeficientes28Abril7,853Intercepcin7593.939393939429Mayo7,863Variable X 19.265734265730Junio7,87231Julio7,88132Agosto7,89033Septiembre7,90034Octubre7,90935Noviembre7,91836Diciembre7,92894,5192.91%437Enero7,93738Febrero7,94639Marzo7,95540Abril7,96541Mayo7,97442Junio7,98343Julio7,99244Agosto8,00245Septiembre8,01146Octubre8,02047Noviembre8,02948Diciembre8,03995,8534.35%549Enero8,04850Febrero8,05751Marzo8,06652Abril8,07653Mayo8,08554Junio8,09455Julio8,10456Agosto8,11357Septiembre8,12258Octubre8,13159Noviembre8,14160Diciembre8,15097,1875.81%

Flujo de CajaSupuestosTipo de cambioRiesgo pas1.62%Tasa imponible30.0%Beta des.0.72IGV18.0%Rf1.6091% apalancado1.4452%(proyecto)Rm-Rf4.35%Inversin98412.2COK6.36%Muebles y equipos6700Inventario inicial84600Deuda59%Creacin y promocin de pag. Web1150Capital41%Entrenamiento personal150Inters14.00%Inversin CTN5812.2Tasa imp.30.0%WACC8.39%

Crecimiento Ao21.75%Ao32.50%Ao44.00%Ao56.25%

EEPPGG EconmicoAo012345VentasS/.184,000187,220191,901199,577212,050FALTA COSTO DE VENTASCostos variables(84,600)(86,292)(88,018)(89,778)(91,573.76)Costos fijos:(32,640)(32,640)(32,640)(32,640)(32,640)Alquiler ($900 mensual) T.C. 2.830,24030,24030,24030,24030,240Mantenimiento (s/.200 mensual)2,4002,4002,4002,4002,400Gastos adminitrativos:(13,800)(13,800)(13,800)(13,800)(13,800)FALTA HALLAR EL COK PARA SACAR EL WACC PORQUE Administrador (s/. 1000.00)12,00012,00012,00012,00012,000Contador ( S/. 150.00)1,8001,8001,8001,8001,800Gastos de ventas:(18,290)(18,290)(18,290)(18,290)(18,290)LA TASA IMPOSITIVA NO EXITE CREO YOVendedores (2 vendedores)- s/. 750.00 c/u18,00018,00018,00018,00018,000Volantes140140140140140Banners150150150150150Depreciacin(860)(860)(860)(860)(860)

U.Antes Impuestos33,81035,33838,29344,20854,886Imp. Renta(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)U. Neta29,01030,53833,49339,40850,086Depreciacion860860860860860Inversion Activo Fijo6700Caja Registradora (s/.700)Computadora (s/. 1200)4 Muebles (s/. 4800)Inversion redes y pagina web1150Facebook (150)Pagina Web (1000)Inversin Produccin84600Inversin en Capacitacin150Inversion CTN5812TOTAL-9841229,87031,39834,35340,26850,946

Flujo de CajaAo012345Ingresos217,120220,920226,443235,500250,219Costos28,36330,35932,39634,47336,592Imp. Renta(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)(4,800)Pago de IGV(104,413)(62,136)(63,834)(66,403)Inversin Total(115,080)0.0FCL(115,080)240,683142,066191,903201,339215,608VANeTIRe

FinanciamientoDeuda67,89758,86347,97634,85719,0490.0Amortizacin(9,035)(10,887)(13,119)(15,808)(19,049)Inters(13,919)(12,067)(9,835)(7,146)(3,905)Pago (22,954)(22,954)(22,954)(22,954)(22,954)Escudo fiscal0.00.00.00.00.0FCF67,897(22,954)(22,954)(22,954)(22,954)(22,954)FCA(47,183)217,729119,112168,949178,385192,654VANfTIRf

Mdulo de IGVAo012345IGV Ingresos33,12033,70034,54235,92438,169IGV Costo de Ventas21,10321,40821,71822,03522,358IGV Otros Costos5,8755,8755,8755,8755,875IGV Inversin(16,668)Diferencia(16,668)60,09860,98362,13663,83466,403Crdito Fiscal(16,668)43,430104,413Pago IGV104,41362,13663,83466,403

Escenarios

EscenarioProbabilidadInversinFC1FC2FC3FC4FC5Pesimista25%-23,3041,91310,14612,40914,81524,497Normal50%-23,3042,25011,93714,59917,43028,820Optimista25%-23,3042,58813,72716,78920,04433,143

Wacc17.2382%

VAN esperado*prob.Varianza*probOptimista12,3133,07839,505,3419,876,335Normal18,5999,29900Pesimista24,8846,22139,505,3419,876,335

E(VPN)18,599Varianza19,752,671Desv. Est.4,444

Cul es la probabilidad de no ganar?

BetasIndustry NameNumber of FirmsAverage BetaMarket D/E RatioTax RateUnlevered BetaCash/Firm ValueUnlevered Beta corrected for cashAdvertising321.6840.84%16.02%1.2513.12%1.44Aerospace/Defense660.9826.64%20.08%0.8111.74%0.92Air Transport361.0359.08%21.35%0.7014.13%0.82Apparel541.3613.77%18.57%1.235.13%1.29Auto Parts541.7624.37%18.77%1.4711.65%1.66Automotive121.73103.42%16.24%0.9316.84%1.11Bank4160.77128.23%16.39%0.3716.43%0.45Bank (Midwest)680.8949.85%20.99%0.6415.03%0.76Beverage350.9522.29%18.82%0.804.33%0.84Biotechnology2141.2315.92%2.98%1.0718.10%1.30Building Materials431.5765.24%9.48%0.996.18%1.05Cable TV201.4066.11%21.23%0.923.61%0.96Chemical (Basic)181.3724.73%21.89%1.157.52%1.24Chemical (Diversified)331.5516.69%19.75%1.376.96%1.47Chemical (Specialty)701.1820.53%15.35%1.004.58%1.05Coal201.4768.38%11.27%0.917.67%0.99Computer Software1910.986.55%12.43%0.9216.59%1.11Computers/Peripherals811.379.70%10.01%1.269.78%1.39Diversified Co.1131.2278.69%17.18%0.7414.07%0.86Drug2231.0814.79%5.14%0.948.25%1.03E-Commerce641.056.74%10.52%0.999.21%1.09Educational Services330.9124.73%21.72%0.7630.24%1.09Electric Util. (Central)200.5785.00%30.12%0.361.03%0.36Electric Utility (East)170.4367.90%33.49%0.291.81%0.30Electric Utility (West)150.5881.37%29.09%0.371.88%0.38Electrical Equipment641.4312.28%16.15%1.2910.95%1.45Electronics1231.2222.46%11.31%1.0113.01%1.17Engineering & Const301.2813.23%25.00%1.1716.52%1.40Entertainment761.6033.87%12.56%1.245.81%1.31Entertainment Tech421.1111.54%11.01%1.0124.21%1.33Environmental840.6643.07%7.60%0.482.45%0.49Financial Svcs. (Div.)2561.34204.42%16.23%0.4912.46%0.56Food Processing1190.8723.50%21.63%0.743.74%0.77Foreign Electronics101.1045.71%23.12%0.8127.40%1.12Funeral Services61.1249.48%28.66%0.832.94%0.85Furn/Home Furnishings321.6322.06%16.69%1.376.52%1.47Healthcare Information200.9711.62%20.31%0.8810.06%0.98Heavy Truck & Equip231.8047.30%22.74%1.329.15%1.45Homebuilding221.5549.57%7.12%1.0615.14%1.25Hotel/Gaming571.6544.75%17.52%1.216.43%1.29Household Products270.9818.11%24.66%0.862.52%0.88Human Resources251.3810.80%26.61%1.2812.49%1.46Industrial Services1360.9736.56%20.19%0.759.21%0.83Information Services281.2528.46%18.33%1.013.48%1.05Insurance (Life)321.4455.85%21.09%1.0028.90%1.41Insurance (Prop/Cas.)620.8521.48%10.73%0.7120.86%0.90Internet1941.172.29%8.43%1.1512.04%1.31Investment Companies311.277.55%2.26%1.182.64%1.21IT Services631.055.72%16.27%1.0010.31%1.11Machinery941.2617.39%22.73%1.116.04%1.18Maritime511.51181.21%7.92%0.576.05%0.60Med Supp Invasive870.8716.48%12.60%0.767.36%0.82Med Supp Non-Invasive1431.0712.89%10.61%0.9613.33%1.10Medical Services1180.8450.23%17.72%0.5910.82%0.66Metal Fabricating251.6323.59%23.30%1.3811.91%1.56Metals & Mining (Div.)771.6215.42%11.24%1.427.45%1.54Natural Gas (Div.)311.2841.08%22.02%0.974.36%1.01Natural Gas Utility270.4666.15%28.80%0.312.41%0.32Newspaper141.8639.29%18.35%1.415.91%1.50Office Equip/Supplies221.4372.14%22.66%0.9113.12%1.05Oil/Gas Distribution121.0253.39%18.11%0.711.26%0.72Oilfield Svcs/Equip.811.6627.72%18.20%1.356.40%1.45Packaging & Container271.2056.17%23.09%0.845.10%0.88Paper/Forest Products321.3743.01%11.43%0.997.35%1.07Petroleum (Integrated)261.1720.47%30.34%1.027.03%1.10Petroleum (Producing)1761.4528.12%11.71%1.163.81%1.21Pharmacy Services181.1718.88%23.18%1.025.11%1.07Pipeline MLPs530.7444.37%4.30%0.520.74%0.52Power1011.35163.45%6.19%0.537.85%0.58Precious Metals831.0313.65%11.13%0.927.93%1.00Precision Instrument821.2721.21%14.13%1.0711.37%1.21Property Management311.30112.58%16.50%0.678.37%0.73Public/Private Equity122.0228.73%19.17%1.6415.39%1.94Publishing291.1736.14%22.69%0.924.97%0.96R.E.I.T.1271.4337.01%0.04%1.046.78%1.12Railroad121.3223.46%28.60%1.131.69%1.15Recreation511.4537.75%20.31%1.115.79%1.18Reinsurance110.8218.90%3.58%0.6924.61%0.91Restaurant651.1613.15%19.23%1.053.42%1.08Retail (Hardlines)791.7926.01%22.55%1.499.96%1.65Retail (Softlines)421.435.59%25.57%1.378.96%1.51Retail Automotive191.3944.33%32.69%1.072.50%1.10Retail Building Supply101.1111.72%25.56%1.021.97%1.04Retail Store381.2925.58%24.83%1.084.67%1.14Retail/Wholesale Food300.6834.84%31.18%0.555.46%0.58Securities Brokerage271.07264.59%30.41%0.3843.53%0.66Semiconductor1421.4910.06%11.71%1.3714.48%1.60Semiconductor Equip101.7916.98%15.21%1.5721.91%2.01Shoe171.261.94%19.89%1.248.93%1.37Steel331.6556.21%24.24%1.168.82%1.27Telecom. Equipment1051.0713.31%14.01%0.9630.13%1.37Telecom. Services761.1531.82%16.22%0.918.92%1.00Telecom. Utility230.92108.25%26.94%0.513.31%0.53Thrift1700.6819.50%15.84%0.5825.18%0.78Tobacco110.8618.87%32.82%0.763.21%0.79Toiletries/Cosmetics141.1720.63%27.33%1.016.80%1.09Trucking341.0942.33%25.94%0.835.15%0.87Water Utility110.4973.18%31.45%0.330.54%0.33Wireless Networking581.3525.67%10.06%1.106.00%1.17Total Market61771.1742.92%14.93%0.8610.66%0.96

SensibilidadFlujo de Caja (Peluches)1.11.21.30.90.8012345012345012345012345012345012345Ventas324000329670337911.75351428.22373392.48375 356400362637371702.925385760.0538409097.084034375388800395604405494.1421713.864448070.9805421200428571439285.275456856.686485410.228875291600296703304120.575316285.398336053.235375259200518400.01751036800.061078272.06241145664.0663Costos variables-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824Costos fijos:-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640Alquiler ($900 mensual) T.C. 2.8302403024030240302403024030240Mantenimiento (s/.200 mensual)240024002400240024002400Gastos adminitrativos:-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800Administrador (s/. 1000.00)120001200012000120001200012000Contador ( S/. 150.00)180018001800180018001800Gastos de ventas:-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290Vendedores (2 vendedores)- s/. 750.00 c/u180001800018000180001800018000Volantes140140140140140140Banners150150150150150150Depreciacin-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860

U.Antes Impuestos694107130075686.1585269.908103222.80551101810104267109477119602138927134210137234143268.5155555.552177901.30226166610170201177059.675190698.374215240.550635370103833341894.97550127.08665883.5571354610Imp. Renta-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800U. Neta646106650070886.1580469.90898422.80550999999701099467104677114802134127129410132434138468.5150755.552173101.30226161810165401172259.675185898.374210440.550635322103353337094.97545327.08661083.557135Depreciacion860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860Inversion Activo Fijo67006700670067006700Caja Registradora (s/.700)Computadora (s/. 1200)4 Muebles (s/. 4800)Inversion redes y pagina web11501150115011501150Facebook (150)Pagina Web (1000)Inversin Produccin8460084600846008460084600Inversin en Capacitacin150150150150150Inversion CTN58125812581258125812TOTAL-98412654706736071746.1581329.90899282.8055099999Total-9841297870100327105537115662134987-98412130270133294139328.5151615.552173961.30226-98412162670166261173119.675186758.374211300.550635-98412330703439337954.97546187.08661943.557135Variables de Entrada (Peluche)FactorVentaPrecio Costo Variable1.3421200782457001.2388800722268001.1356400662079001324000601890000.9291600541701000.8259200481512000.722680042132300

Escenarios 2Flujo de Caja (Peluches)PESIMISTAOPTIMISTA012345012345012345Ventas324000329670337911.75351428.22373392.48375278400283272290353.8301967.952320856.0473976372000378510387972.75403491.66428730.063333Costos variables-189000-192780-196635.6-200568.312-204579.67824172800176256179781.12183376.7424187044.277248204000208080212241.6216486.432220816.16064Costos fijos:-32640-32640-32640-32640-32640-35000-35000-35000-35000-35000-28760-28760-28760-28760-28760Alquiler ($900 mensual) T.C. 2.8302403480028560Mantenimiento (s/.200 mensual)2400200200Gastos adminitrativos:-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800-13800Administrador (s/. 1000.00)120001200012000Contador ( S/. 150.00)180018001800Gastos de ventas:-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290-18290Vendedores (2 vendedores)- s/. 750.00 c/u180001800018000Volantes140140140Banners150150150Depreciacin-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860-860

U.Antes Impuestos694107130075686.1585269.908103222.80551383250391578402184.92417394.6944439950.3246456514290524880538504.35558268.092587836.223973BaseOptimistaPesimistaImp. Renta-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800-4800Ventas540060004800U. Neta646106650070886.1580469.90898422.8055099999378450386778397384.92412594.6944435150.3246456509490520080533704.35553468.092583036.223973Precio606258Depreciacion860860860860860860860860860860860860860860860C variables353436Inversion Activo Fijo670067006700C fijos326402937635000Caja Registradora (s/.700)IR30%30%30%Computadora (s/. 1200)Cok6.36%6.36%6.36%4 Muebles (s/. 4800)Inversion redes y pagina web115011501150Facebook (150)Pagina Web (1000)Inversin Produccin846008460084600Julia y Lucia, en esta parte tienen que agregar el capital de trabajo y cambiaran los flujos. Luego hallan en VAN, cuando obtengan eso pueden concluir con los analisis e interpretar los resultados. Esto se pueden fijan en la pagina 130 del libro verde de Eva para que se guienInversin en Capacitacin150150150Inversion CTN581258125812TOTAL-98412654706736071746.1581329.90899282.8055099999-98412379310387638398245413455436010-98412510350520940534564554328583896