3q16 results presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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Draft - Highly Confidential
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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3Q Main Messages
Source: Company, except where otherwised indicated ¹ Normalized for towers sale and other effects
An encouraging macro environment…
Inflation relief (12M IPCA)
…with operational improvement… and consistent rebound on financials.
• Financial performance changing trajectory
• Widening EBITDA minus CAPEX
• Solid normalized1 EBITDA Margin at 33.4%
• Defending prepaid leadership while pushing on postpaid rebound, backed by the largest 4G network
43% 50%
3Q15 3Q16
Data user penetration over total base (%)
VAS over Mobile Service Revs. (%)
Postpaid monthly net adds (thousand lines)
39% 46% Dec/15 Sep/16
65
81 Consumer confidence
Industry confidence
76
88
Dec/16
~7%
Dec/15
~11%
• GDP growth for 2017 at ~2%
• Interest rate started dropping
• Fiscal measure to control indebtedness
2016YTD = 658k
Dec/15 Sep/16
277
479
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
A Better confidence (points)
-7.2% -8.7% -9.2%
-6.8%
-3.0%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Mobile Serv. Net Revenues (YoY%)
Normalized1 EBITDA (YoY%)
Strong cost efficiency
-2.7%
-5.3%
-13.5%
-6.5%
0.5%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
+3.4% QoQ
+8.2% QoQ
Source: FGV
Source: Anatel Source: IBGE and Central Bank estimate (Focus)
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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-5.9%
-1.8%
3.0%
7.0%
12.3%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
13.8
14.2
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16
Business key performance indicators at a better pace
An improved customer base profile
Postpaid base (mln users)
58.8
49.0
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16
Postpaid mix at 22.5% of total base; up from 19% in 3Q15
Bad debt & SAC under control
Bad debt (% of gross revenues)
SAC (per gross adds;
R$; YoY%)
Prepaid transformation
defending leadership
1.0% 1.3%
% of bundled/ recurring offer users
Total ARPU growth (YoY%)
Prepaid base (mln users)
Strict disconnection policy
SIM card consolidation
Migration pre-post
ARPU continuous improvement
35.2 28.2
3Q15 3Q16
-20%
ARPU
post vs. pre
~4x
Avg. Recharge (R$)
Postpaid mobile number portability (thousand lines)
sep/15 dec/15 mar/16 jun/16 sep/16
15%
34%
3Q15 3Q16
Source: Anatel
Source: Company, except where otherwised indicated
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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Price reposition along with better competitive ambient
Gross Churn ARPU
Source: Company
Prepaid
Gross Churn ARPU
Controle
Gross Churn ARPU
Postpaid
More for More Approach
Repositioning Prices
o Infinity:
More data packages
o TIM Pré:
More bundles
o TIM Controle:
New entry level: TIM Controle Light Fatura
o TIM Pós:
4G handset + data + voice = bundle
o Infinity:
Voice & Data (each):
R$0.75 to R$0.99
o Old Controle plans:
R$32.0 to R$35.9
o Postpaid:
Roaming Data Packages
Offer Evolution
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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A closer look at data evolution
Value Added Service Net Revenues
(R$ mln; YoY%)
VAS ARPU
(R$; YoY%)
Smartphone penetration
YoY growth of customers using
4G devices
YoY growth of blended BOU
(763 MB)
Bytes of use (BOU) (bytes of use per data customers in 3Q16)
Base per technology
(mln customers; YoY%)
1,407
1,603
3Q15 3Q16
+14%
Data +
Content
SMS
46% 39% % of Mobile
Service Revenues
-32%
+20% Monetizing
4G
18.4%
30.6%
6.4
8.3
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
2G
3G
4G
+65%
+3.6x
Source: Anatel
Source: Anatel
Source: Company, except where otherwised indicated *Aug/2016
4G devices data traffic
(% over total traffic)
33%
53%
aug/15 dec/15 apr/16 aug/16
13.7
33.6
16.0
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
3G
2G
4G
-17%
-40%
+170%
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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924 710
1,184
975
1,168
1,122
YTD15 YTD16
Further advancing on infrastructure
Range benefits of 700MHz
• 1st wave: leading 4G coverage through refarming of 1.8Ghz until…
2nd wave: arrival of the 700MHz
• Focus on high capacity backhaul in main cities
• Focus on customer experience using Big Data to control Performance
indicators (versus technical ones) and Customer Profile (predict rather
than react)
Total Capex evolution
3Q
2Q
1Q
2,807
3,276
4G on technology
Capex
1.3x 1x 1.18x 2.9x 3.5x
2,500 MHZ
2,100 MHZ
1,900 MHZ
800MHZ 700MHZ
Number of
Sites (000)
Covered
Cities
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
9,858
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
-14.3%
YoY
Doing More With Less
13,302
Relative distance
21% 45%
2,084
2,800
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
Urban pop. covered
Urban pop. covered
746
>1,000
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
81% 91%
48% 72%
Source: Company
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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49
46
8M15 8M16
Supporting network performance & quality indicator
Anatel quality indicators:
National Average
Claims at Consumer
Protection Agency (PROCON; accumulated in thousand)
Rio infrastructure in recent Forbes’
survey during the Olympics
Most recent figures Source: SINDEC/SENACON
-6%
“TIM took home the gold” ¹
¹ Link of the story: goo.gl/9RWskk
99.7% 99.8%
99.6%
99.8%
Jun-15 Jun-16
0.9%
0.6% 0.5%
0.2%
Jun-15 Jun-16
Data Accessibility (% of connections)
4G 3G
Source: Anatel (Most recent figures)
~90% Sites
connected with TIM’s
infrastructure
~40%* Traffic offload
through 4G
53% Data traffic
by 4G devices
+20% YoY of sites connected
with fiber in state capitals
(based on a survey from GWS)
Data Drop (% of connections)
*Main cities
Network
dissatisfaction among
postpaid users
-25%
nov/15 jul/16
Source: Company, except where otherwised indicated
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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4,116 3,899
+19.8% -12.2% -28.4% +10.2% -37%
3Q15 InnovativeServices
TraditionalServices
Incoming FixedBusiness
Handsets 3Q16
Revenues: new trajectory confirmed
ARPU dynamics
Ex–MTR
Reported
Mobile Service Net Revenues (YoY%)
VAS over Mobile Service Net Revs. (R$ mln; YoY%; %) (R$)
-7.2%
-3.0%
-3.2%
0.4%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Total Net Revenues Breakdown (R$ mln; YoY%)
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
38.9%
45.8%
+20%
Innovative Services
-5.3%
Business Generated stable Revenues recovery on…
Higher postpaid mix
Higher penetration on data services
Improving macro conditions
A more rational environment
14.8
17.1
1.6
1.3 16.4
18.4
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
ARPU OUT
ARPU IN
YoY
+12%
-19%
+16%
Source: Company
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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3Q15 3Q16 955
968
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Opex under strict control amid ~8.5%* inflation
2,408 2,365
Normalized1 OPEX Evolution (R$ mln; YoY%)
-16.6%
Personnel , G&A and Others
Network & Itx
+1.4%
-1.8%
929
960
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Commercial & Bad Debt
+3.3%
2,820 2,597 -7.9%
COGS
Normalized1 Opex ex-
COGS
Process Driven
Market Driven
Traffic Volume Driven
*12M as of September/2016, last available data
Focus on
transformational
initiatives
Modest growth
despite solid
increase of
postpaid
Efficiency approach
on network cost
offsetting inflation
and growth
impacts
R$836 mln saving out of
R$1.7 bln target 2016-18
¹ Normalized for towers sale and other transformation impacts
524
437
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Source: Company
Normalized1 Opex (R$) (9M15) (9M16)
7.9 bln 9.1 bln -1.2 bln
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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¹ Normalized for towers sale and other transformation impacts
EBITDA back to positive growth
Normalized1 EBITDA-Capex
EBITDA Growth
(R$ mln; YoY%)
(YoY%)
Normalized1 EBITDA Margin (%)
Service EBITDA Margin
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA performance improving and better
margins backed by…
Well executed efficiency plan
Lighter impacts from MTR
Improved Revenues mix
(more data and less handsets)
-2.7%
0.5%
3.9% 2.3%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Ex–MTR
Normalized1
31.5% 31.5%
33.4%
36.3%
34.4%
35.9%
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 YTD 15 YTD 16
862
651
+32%
Normalized1 Net Income (R$ mln; YoY%)
175
200
3Q15 3Q16
+14%
Source: Company
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Results Presentation
Investor Relations
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A virtuous cycle arises
•Deficit recovery
plan undergo
• Inflation towards
the target
Macro economy in
recovery process
A more rational
competitive
scenario
Business
reposition has
started
Solid infrastructure
supporting the
business
•Monetizing data
plans
•Better offers’
terms
•Moving on to data
centric
•Back again on
postpaid
•Close the gap on
3G while widening
on 4G coverage
• Focus on customer
experience
What to expect…
Execute on cost efficiency to deliver R$1.7 bln
savings in 3 years (leaner Company)
Capture data growth on 700MHz opportunity
Low frequency
High frequency
Revenue and EBITDA recovery should continue
EBITDA-CAPEX to widen
YTD15 YTD16
651 862
¹ Normalized for towers sale and other transformation impacts
Normalized1 EBITDA
Capex
Normalized1 EBITDA -Capex
3,276 2,807
3,927 3,669
(R$ mln)
Source: Company