warsaw csd presentation dash

8/13/2019 Warsaw CSD Presentation DASH

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The Warsaw, Copenhagen, Paris

UN Climate Change Conferences

Where is the climate treaty?

Jan W. Dash, PhD

Climate Statement Chair, CSD CoNGO

Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker

Climate Initiative Chair, UU-UNO

19 November 2013


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Recent Global Warming is due to Human

Generated Greenhouse Gases CO2...20,000 years

of data;

CO2 spikeis recent,

continuing.

IPCC 2007

Science Vol I

11/22/13 Copright Jan W. Dash 2


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Model Forecasts depend on Human

Behavior (Scenarios)

IPCC 2007

Science Vol I

Now appear

conservative



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World-Wide Climate Impacts

! We are seeing bad impacts NOW! Impacts will get FAR WORSEif we do not act! No place to hide.! Increased conflict (wars): National security! Economic/finance disruption: Breakdown?! Disasters worse due to Climate Change:

Water shortages, crop failures, intense fires,droughts, disease increase, flooding, species

extermination, extreme weather, sea level rise,

heat waves, precipitation patterns changed



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Some progress. Big problems.

! Need to recognize extent of problem! Climate disinformation: fossil fuel / libertarians

! Need to understand Risk Management! Long term solution vs. short term expediency

! Need change (fossil fuel to renewables)! Technical / political / economic / psychological

! Need action on all levels from local to global! No silver bullet solution exists! Individual, NGOs, business, cities, governments! International



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UN Climate Change Conference

COP19 Warsaw, Poland 2013

November 11-22



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UN Annual Climate Conferences

! Copenhagen Warsaw Paris ! Goal: FAB International Climate Accord

! FAB = Fair Ambitious Binding! Replace Kyoto Protocol (was only first step)! Copenhagen Accord (2009)! Steady but slow progress: Cancun, Durban, Doha! Warsaw: expect marginal progress (ends Friday)! Commitment is to finalize treaty in Paris (2015)

! Then ratify the treaty by all countries ! Then implement the treaty



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Important Negotiation Bottleneck:

Cumulative vs. Current Emissions

! Cumulative CO2: Developed countriesresponsible for most CO2 in atmosphere!

CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time! Emphasized by developing countries

! Current CO2: Developing countryemissions rapidly increasing (China now #1)! Emphasized by developed countries! Cumulative (developing) > 50% of total in10 years

! => TREATY GRIDLOCK



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Cumulative CO2 problem

! US, EU 57%, China 7% in 2000 (but developing nationscumulative CO2 will be over 50% of total by 2020)



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Other Major Negotiation Issues

! Economic growth for underdeveloped countries! Energy parity (India ) vs. CO2 emissions

! Who pays for what? When?!

$100 Billion/yr by 2020 fund where is the $?! Contention over reparations due to climate damage! Other climate finance issues (Carbon tax?)

! Verification and enforcement of accord terms! Teeth needed for violations

! International UN vs. Bilateral Negotiations



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What do you see at an international

climate conference?! 10,000 people

! Energy, excitement! Great learning experience

! Meet people, organize for later action! Many talks, exhibits, side events! City events" Photo exhibit 100 places and climate change

! You dont see the famous (cant get in)



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CSD Climate Statement

Personal Copenhagen Story! Denmark Prime Minister

! Got the CSD statement to him (bodyguards)! Warsaw: Statement was distributed! Looking for volunteers for 2014 (Lima) to

help distribute CSD Climate Statement



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More on UU-UNO Climate Portal

climate.uu-uno.org



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Bottom Line

Climate: big problem, we can solve it! Human activities causing global warming! Climate impacts bad, can become far worse!

Climate links to many other issues! We are arrayed against powerful opponents! NOTtoo late to prevent worst impacts! Vision: Renewables + climate treaty +

!Youcan help1411/22/13 Copright Jan W. Dash


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Thank You


warsaw csd presentation dash

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