Ana P. BarrosDuke University

Lima, March 22, 2013

El Nexo Agua-Energia-Desarollo: riesgos naturales y interacciones entre infraestrutura, clima y paisaje enun marco de adaptación a multiples escalas

Observaciones - Rigorosas, Consistentes, Dense, Extensas

Analísis y Interpretación – Representación y modelos

Integración de datos e física >>> Contexto de riesgo

Evaluar Vulnerabilidades , “Breaking Points”

DescobertaCiencia

Pilares de Adaptación

Nilometer 622-1284 A.D.

From Koutsoyannis, 2004

(Mandelbrot and Wallis 1977, Hurst 1951, Barros and Evans 1996)

The idea that persistent persistent (0.5<H<1.0)(0.5<H<1.0)movements in a time seriestime series tend to be part of largertrendstrends and cyclescycles more often than they are completely random.

H=0.91

H=0.5

Ciclos Climáticos…Dos series con media y varianciaestadísticas iguales

“Ruído Blanco”

Renaissance

Y de un punto de vista regional, local que significa? Revolución

Industrial

PresaConstruída

Note la influencia de la duración del periodo de observación

Analísis de Riesgo – Infraestrutura

?

“Gran Muralla Andina”

Finer and Jenkins, 2012

Environmental Services

Conectividad HidrologicaConectividad Ecologica Material (Sedimentos, Nutrientes)

Sustainability /Climate

India: Plans to build 292 hydroelectric dams in the Himalayas

Green, Renewable Energy

HidroAgoyan Dam, Pastaza River, Ecuador

Endicamientos Naturales : Formación y Falla

Penna e al. 2012)

New et al. 2001

Changing Mix of Stations: Raingauge Stations Over Time

(NOAA GHCN Dataset)

Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC

GHCN-Monthly Version 3.0• The dataset for global climate monitoring and assessment

– 7280 mean temperature stations; >20,000 precipitation stations– Global coverage from 1880 to present– GHCN-M Version 3 released in 2010 (temperature only)

Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC

Barros 2012

a)

Estaciones hydrométricas

1 – Africa2 – Asia3 – South America4 – North America, Central America, and the Caribbean5 – Europe6 – South-West Pacific

WMO Region

Elev

ation

H [m

]

Barros 2012

b)

Estaciones hydrométricas

Hydrometeorology of Mountainous RegionsMaritime vs Continental Tropical Monsoon RegimesMid-Latitude Seasonal RegimesGlobal to Regional Scale ControlsSummit to Sea and Sea To Summit

From Clouds to River NetworksFrom Clouds to River Networks1st Principal Component of Cloudiness (IR Brightness)

Giovannetone and Barros 2008 and 2009

Warm Rain

“Deep” Convection

DaytimeDaytimeTRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes

Giovannettone and Barros, 2009

Shallow Embedded Convection

NighttimeNighttime

TRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes

Giovannettone and Barros, 2009

TRMM PFs December 1998-2010

Wet season

1st order streams

3500m

Ridge-Valley, ET feedback,and

Mountain-Valley Circulations

Rampanelli et al. (2004)

Sunrise Forenoon

Noon Later Afternoon

Evening Early Night

Middle of NightLate Night to Morning

Lowman and Barros, 2013

Class Elevation Range (m)

1 6000-36002 3599-25003 2499-22004 2199-15005 1499-13006 1299-9007 899-5008 499-0

AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011

AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011

First Observations Central Andes

San Pedro, Andes

20122011Rio Kospiñata

Financiado por la NSF

Precipitable water

Precipitable water from ERA-Interim 2011

ACRGs installed in 2011

Erlingis (2012)

Moisture transport – Andes

Role of vegetation/ET in “harvesting” atmospheric moisture???

Vertically integrated moisture flux

Verano Invierno

Weak LLJ Daily Precipitation

TRMM 3B42

ERA-Interim

NCEP-FNL

NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisWater Vapor Transport

1951-2010

Necessidades Fundamentales de Investigación

Monitoreo

Organización the Processos y Flujos en el Paisaje en Multiples Escalas

Recursos Riesgos Sostenibilidad