tendencias historicas y diferencias transnacionales en los...

Tendencias historicas y diferencias transnacionales en los homicidios: Como cambia la violencia letal y sus posibles determinantes

Manuel Eisner

Director, Violence Research Centre (VRC)

Institute of Criminology

University of Cambridge

Structure

How much variation in homicide rates is there across time and between societies?

Where does it come from?

Variation in Homicide Rates in the

Contemporary World

-

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

Icel

and

Norw

ay

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Mo

rocc

o

Slo

ven

ia

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Aust

rali

a

New

Zea

lan

d

Iran

(Is

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ic R

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c of)

Slo

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ia

Cze

ch R

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c

Port

ugal

Bel

giu

m

Ser

bia

Mal

aysi

a

Bulg

aria

Tu

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Pak

ista

n

Mongoli

a

Isra

el

Hai

ti

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Jord

an

Suri

nam

e

Rep

ub

lic

of

Mold

ova

Mad

agas

car

Sen

egal

Mal

i

Nic

arag

ua

Nig

eria

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Bah

amas

Mex

ico

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ken

ya

Pan

ama

Les

oth

o

So

uth

Afr

ica

Mal

awi

Sw

azil

and

Jam

aica

Guat

emal

a

Homicide Rate per 100,000

Note: WHO homicide statistics 2008.


Contemporary World

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70,0

Icel

and

Norw

ay

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Mo

rocc

o

Slo

ven

ia

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Aust

rali

a

New

Zea

lan

d

Iran

(Is

lam

ic R

epu

bli

c of)

Slo

vak

ia

Cze

ch R

epubli

c

Port

ugal

Bel

giu

m

Ser

bia

Mal

aysi

a

Bulg

aria

Tu

rkey

Pak

ista

n

Mongoli

a

Isra

el

Hai

ti

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Jord

an

Suri

nam

e

Rep

ub

lic

of

Mold

ova

Mad

agas

car

Sen

egal

Mal

i

Nic

arag

ua

Nig

eria

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Bah

amas

Mex

ico

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ken

ya

Pan

ama

Les

oth

o

So

uth

Afr

ica

Mal

awi

Sw

azil

and

Jam

aica

Guat

emal

a



Argentina 2012: 7.2 per 100,000

(Fleitas, 2014)


Contemporary World

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10,0

20,0

30,0

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60,0

70,0

Icel

and

Norw

ay

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Mo

rocc

o

Slo

ven

ia

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Aust

rali

a

New

Zea

lan

d

Iran

(Is

lam

ic R

epu

bli

c of)

Slo

vak

ia

Cze

ch R

epubli

c

Port

ugal

Bel

giu

m

Ser

bia

Mal

aysi

a

Bulg

aria

Tu

rkey

Pak

ista

n

Mongoli

a

Isra

el

Hai

ti

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Jord

an

Suri

nam

e

Rep

ub

lic

of

Mold

ova

Mad

agas

car

Sen

egal

Mal

i

Nic

arag

ua

Nig

eria

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Bah

amas

Mex

ico

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ken

ya

Pan

ama

Les

oth

o

So

uth

Afr

ica

Mal

awi

Sw

azil

and

Jam

aica

Guat

emal

a


Contemporary Rates vary between

about 0.5 (Japan, Austria, Norway)

and 50 (Jamaica, El Salvador,

Guatemala) per 100,000

inhabitants


Map of the World by Homicides

(WHO recorded homicides 2002, www.worldmapper.org)

Map of the World by Research Output

(Published papers in 2001 www.worldmapper.org)

0,1

1

10

100

1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War

10-100 Violent Societies

1-10 Semi-Pacified Societies

< 1 Pacified Societies

Ho

mic

ide

Rat

e p

er

10

0,0

00

0,1

1

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100

1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




• Unrelated men in public space • Organized and sectarian • Violent enterpreneurs

• Large % female victims • Individual pathologies • Marginal groups

Homicide as Politics

Homicide as Pathology

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1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




Current Global HR = 6.4 (430,000 deaths p.a.)

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10

0,0

00

Source: UNODC (2014) Global Study on Homicide

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1

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100

1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




Singapore

Uganda

USA

South Africa

Switzerland

Mexico

Canada Ho

mic

ide

Rat

e p

er

10

0,0

00

Honduras

Source: UNODC (2014) Global Study on Homicide

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100

1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




Singapore

Uganda

USA

South Africa

Switzerland

Mexico

Canada Ho

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Rat

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00

Honduras

• Low HDI • High ethnic fractionalization • High inequality • High corruption • Low democracy • Low governance • Low social policy and health exp. • Low social trust • Low legitimacy

Lappi-Sappälä & Lehti (2014) Global Homicide Trends

Nivette(2011) Hom Studies

Nivette & Eisner (2012) Hom Studies

Sources:

Correlates of Homicide

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1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




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10 % world population 45% homicides

45 % world population 9% homicides

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1400 1600 1800 2000

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




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1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




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Eisner (2014) Swords to Words, C & J

Source:

Homicide Trends in 8 European Regions, 15th to 21st c.

Why did homicide decline in Europe?

Why did homicide decline in Europe?

Four hypotheses

1. The long-term decline in homicide in the general population was

preceded by a pacification of the political elites.

2. The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide was

associated with a transition from a punitive regime anchored in the

spectacle of suffering to a punitive regime focused on regulation, discipline, and imprisonment.

3. The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide was partly

due to the frontal lobe training in self-control resulting from the

diffusion of the book and literacy.

4. The up and down of homicide across the Western World since the 1950s

is the result of cultural change related to self-control and discipline.

The Hypothesis

Any decline in homicide in the general population requires a prior

pacification of the political elites.

The Data

1. Regicide Database: Coding of violent deaths of all 1513 rulers in 45

monarchies of Europe, 600-1800. See Eisner, M. (2011). Killing Kings…, British

Journal of Criminology.

2. VIP Violent Death Database: Coding of all male entries in the Oxford

Dictionary of National Biography, 600-2000 for homicide and execution.

Elite Violence and the Decline in Homicide, 600-2013

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600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

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te K

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per

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Year

Regicide Elite Murder Pre-Modern Homicide Modern Homicide

Source: Eisner, M. (2014). From Swords to Words – Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control predict Long-Term Variation in Homicide Rates.

Crime and Justice (in press).

The Hypothesis

The decline in homicide was associated with a transition

from a punitive regime anchored in the spectacle of suffering

to a punitive regime focused on regulation, discipline, and imprisonment.

The Data

Series of capital punishment in 17 European cities, 1200 – 1800, covering Italy,

Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, England.

Retrieved from various historical publications.

17 Series of Capital Punishment and European Trend,

1200-2000

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1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

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Chester Frankfurt2

Nürnberg Augsburg

Zurich Luzern

Breslau Sweden

London Danzig

Mechelen2 Antwerp

Doornik Bologna

Venice Navarra

Rome Mean Trend



Decline in Capital Punishment vs. Decline in Homicide

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45

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1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

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per

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Executions Pre-Modern Homicide Modern Homicide Rate



The Hypothesis

The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide

was partly due to the frontal lobe training in self-control

resulting from the diffusion of the book and literacy.

The Data

Number of printed books per 1000 inhabitants for 13 European regions between

1450 and 1800, by 50-year periods.

Buringh, E. and J. L. Van Zanden (2009). "Charting the “Rise of the West”:

Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, a long-term Perspective from the Sixth

through Eighteenth Centuries." The Journal of Economic History, 69(02): 409-445.

Jan Steen (1665) The Schoolmaster.

Book Production and Homicide Rate, 1450-1800

1

10

100

0,1 1 10 100 1000

Ho

mic

ide R

ate

Books per 1000 Inhabitants

1450-99

1500-49

1550-99

1600-49

1650-99

1700-49

1750-99

Book Production and Homicide Rate, 1450-1800

1

10

100

0,1 1 10 100 1000

Ho

mic

ide R

ate

Books per 1000 Inhabitants

1450-99

1500-49

1550-99

1600-49

1650-99

1700-49

1750-99

Log-Log –Relationship:

Homicide rates went down as book production

went up

R2 = 54%

The Hypothesis

The late 19th / early 20th century decline in

homicide was partly a result of self-control training

associated with a Victorian cultural emphasis on

domesticity, temperance, and rational recreation.

The Data

Annual time-series of alcohol consumption per capita for England (1840-2012),

Norway (1851-2002), Sweden (1861-2005 and Denmark (1892-2002) .

Victorian Christmas Card

Alcohol Consumption versus Homicide in Northern Europe



0

50

100

150

200

250

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Alcohol-Denmark

Alcohol-Norway

Alcohol-Sweden

Alcohol-England

Homicide-Denmark

Homicide-Norway

Homicide-Sweden

Homicide-England

The Hypothesis

The increase in violent crime from the early 1960s to the

90s and the decline since then reflect a move away from

and a return to cultural values of self-control and discipline.

The Data

NGRAM frequencies of nine thematic fields related to loss of self-control (sex, drugs,

narcissicm), inner control (shame, politeness, honesty), and outer control (CCTV, anger

management, zero tolerance).

Corpus of all English books in google.books, no smoothing.

Al series standardized to Mean (1950-2008) = 100.

http://chrismaverick.deviantart.com



Trends in Cultural Themes related to Discipline and

Western World Homicide Rates

0

50

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150

200

250

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Ind

ex 1

950-2

008 =

100

Sex

Drugs

Narcissism

Shame

Politeness

Honesty

CCTV

Anger Management

Zero Tolerance

Homicide rates

What Drives Homicide Down? Governance and Civil Society

• Control over protection entrepreneurs

• Enforcement of ‘rule of law’, compliance with authority

• ‘Civil service ethos’

• Legitimacy (“fairness”) of social order

• Inclusive state services Rotberg (2004) When States Fail; Acemoglu and Robinson (2013)

Why Nations Fail.

Bundles of Social Control Technologies • Monitoring technologies (CCTV, Mobile) • Control over disorderly conduct (ASBOs,

Curfews, alcohol sale, hooliganism) • Early screening, victim protection

services, home visits, CD treatment • Probation & parole Finkelhor (2013), Farrell et al. (2011)

Morality and Self Control Coalitions of ‘moral entrepreneurs’ who promote health, child development, civility, self-control, respect, morality.

Proposal 1 Any sustained violence reduction will require better governance and a movement towards inclusive civil societies

Level Examples

Universal Rule of law Civil servants Anti-corruption policies Control over private protection markets Compliance with human rights State legitimacy

Selective Effective policing Victim protection services Effective complaints and internal affairs procedures

Indicated Absence of torture Respect for rights of defendant Fairness of judiciary Availability of offender treatment

Theme Legitimacy of Social Order

Background

Violence is not just an issue of individual pathology, it has systemic features influenced by, amongst others, benefits of violence, costs of violence, and beliefs about the benefits of cooperative behaviors, e.g. Eisner (2011).

What makes a social order legitimate? – E.g. Tankebe and Bottoms , Tankebe (2012)

Why do people comply with moral rules? – E.g. moral socialization, e.g. Malti et al (2009)

– developmental antecedents of legal cynicism (e.g. Nivette et al 2014)

• What systemic features of families, kindergartens, schools, care-homes, prisons, states make people more likely to follow rules?

Example 1 Salience of Risk Factors in Zurich and Montevideo

Police recorded crime Montevideo Zurich

Homicide 12.5 0.8 x 15

Robbery 1050 192 x 5

Eisner and Trajtenberg (2014) Towards a more effective prevention policy in Uruguay

Example 1 Salience of Risk Factors in Zurich and Montevideo

-1,2

-0,8

-0,4

0

0,4

0,8

1,2

Zurich higher

Montevideo higher

Police recorded crime Montevideo Zurich

Homicide 12.5 0.8 x 15

Robbery 1050 192 x 5

Standard Deviations Cohen’s d

Eisner and Trajtenberg (2014) Towards a more effective prevention policy in Uruguay

Universal Effective supervision of children Urban Planning Elimination of physical money CCTV monitoring

Selective Control over truancy Enforcement of alcohol regulations Effective gun control

Indicated Higher likelihood of punishment Faster punishment Electronic tagging

Proposal 2 Any sustained violence reduction will rest on more intensive and effective formal and informal social control mechanisms

Example 2 Punishment for Homicide in Honduras Background Punishment (costs for norm transgressions) is important. Punishment is here to stay for the next 30 years. If the state doesn’t punish somebody else will.

There is quite some knowledge about what characteristics of punishment are more or less conducive to deterrence. E.g. Nagin (2013).

What is the average ‘tariff ’ for a murder in Honduras? - Imprisonment rate 160 per 100,000, Daniel Ortega (2014)

- Assume 50% in prison for murder

- Homicide rate 80 per 100,000

-> Average tariff is 1 year per murder committed

Example 2 Punishment for Homicide in Honduras Background Punishment (costs for norm transgressions) is important. Punishment is here to stay for the next 30 years. If the state doesn’t punish somebody else will.

There is quite some knowledge about what characteristics of punishment are more or less conducive to deterrence. E.g. Nagin (2013)

What is the average ‘tariff ’ for a murder in Honduras? - Imprisonment rate 160 per 100,000.

- Assume 50% in prison for murder

- Homicide rate 80 per 100,000

-> Average tariff is 1 year per murder committed

Today Future

Slow Fast

Severe Lenient/moderate

Unfair Fair

Rare Certain

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Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




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Source:


0

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Homicide Scale

> 100 Civil War




5-7% Conviction Rate for Murder

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Source:


5-7% Conviction Rate for Murder

Proposal 3 A major decline in violence will require substantial efforts by coalitions of moral entrepreneurs to change moral beliefs and sensitivities.

What is morally right for adolescents in Amman?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Boys

Girls

OK to kill if dishonored family OK for husband to beat if….

Source: Eisner and Ghuneim (2013). Honor Killing

Background: Moral Neutralisations of harm-doing are powerful facilitators of violence, especially if supported by religious and political elites.

N = 840

What is morally right for adolescents in Amman?

39% 38% 39%

49%

77%

57% 55% 58%

87%

18% 18% 20% 25%

67%

32% 29%

13%

78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Boys

Girls

OK to kill if dishonored family OK for husband to beat if….

Source: Eisner and Ghuneim (2013). Honor Killing

Background: Moral Neutralisations of harm-doing are powerful facilitators of violence, especially if supported by religious and political elites.

N = 840

Finally…..

Public Health • Child development • Early prevention • Social skills

Justice and Governance • Better policing • Fight corruption • Better justice • Offender treatment

Civil Society • Sectarian violence • Minorities, ethnic tensions • Transitional justice • Political violence

Public Health • Child development • Early Prevention • Social Skills

Justice and Governance • Better policing • Fight corruption • Better justice • Offender treatment

Civil Society • Sectarian violence • Minorities, ethnic tensions • Transitional justice • Political violence

Six Papers

Historical trends and patterns in homicide Eisner, Manuel (2003). Long-term trends in violent crime. Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, 30, 83-142.

Eisner, Manuel (2014). From Swords to Words. Crime and Justice, Vol 38.

Historical trends and patterns in elite violence Eisner, Manuel (2011). Killing kings; patterns of regicide in Europe, 600-1800. British Journal of Criminology,

General theory of violence Eisner, Manuel (2010). The uses of violence: An examination of some cross-cutting issues, International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 3, 40-59.

Cross-national comparison of homicide rates Nivette, Amy and Manuel Eisner (2014). Political Legitimacy and Homicide: A cross-national analysis. Homicide Studies.

Macro-level prevention of homicide Eisner, Manuel and Amy Nivette (2012). How to reduce the global homicide rate to 2 per 100,000 by 2060. in: Welsh, Brandon and Rolf Loeber (eds.). The Future of Criminology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

• end

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