tarea - estimación de la demanda
DESCRIPTION
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II semestre 2015año semestre X VENTAS X*Y X*X
2010 I 1 29,518,320.00 29,518,320.00 2010 II 2 28,211,050.00 56,422,100.00 2011 I 3 25,942,700.00 77,828,100.00 2011 II 4 33,128,300.00 132,513,200.00 2012 I 5 25,400,190.00 127,000,950.00 2012 II 6 35,040,710.00 210,244,260.00 2013 I 7 31,918,160.00 223,427,120.00 2013 II 8 24,600,518.00 196,804,144.00 2014 I 9 36,295,710.00 326,661,390.00 2014 II 10 32,400,000.00 324,000,000.00 2015 I 11 30,299,413.00 333,293,543.00 2015 II
66 332,755,071.00 2,037,713,127.00 (∑x)° 4356
ggu
°=2
Estimacion de la demanda del 2015 - II
Año Semestre Año - Semestre X = Periodos VENTAS = Y2010 I 2010 - I 1 29518320.002010 II 2010 - II 2 28211050.002011 I 2011 - I 3 25942700.002011 II 2011 - II 4 33128300.002012 I 2012 - I 5 25400190.002012 II 2012 - II 6 35040710.002013 I 2013 - I 7 31918160.002013 II 2013 - II 8 24600518.002014 I 2014 - I 9 36295710.002014 II 2014 - II 10 32400000.002015 I 2015 - I 11 30299413.002015 II 2015 - II 12 32496790.15
Sumatoria: 66 332755071.00
n= 11b = 374,388.19
22,414,844,397.00 21,961,834,686.00 5,566.00 4,356.00
a = 28,004,131.85 30,250,461.00 2,246,329.15
X = 12Y = a + bxY = 32,496,790.15
Variacion = 8%Rmax = 35,096,533.36 Rmin = 2,807,722.75
nåxy =åyåx =
nåx^2 =(åx)^2 =
åy/n =b(åx/n) =
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140.00
5000000.00
10000000.00
15000000.00
20000000.00
25000000.00
30000000.00
35000000.00
40000000.00
29518320.0028211050.00
25942700.00
33128300.00
25400190.00
35040710.00
31918160.00
24600518.00
36295710.00
32400000.00
30299413.00
32496790.15
Ventas y estimacion del 2do trimestre del 2015
VENTAS = YLinear (VENTAS = Y)
Periodos
Vent
as
Estimacion de la demanda del 2015 - II
X*Y X^229518320.00 156422100.00 477828100.00 9
132513200.00 16127000950.00 25210244260.00 36223427120.00 49196804144.00 64326661390.00 81324000000.00 100333293543.00 121
2037713127.00 506
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140.00
5000000.00
10000000.00
15000000.00
20000000.00
25000000.00
30000000.00
35000000.00
40000000.00
29518320.0028211050.00
25942700.00
33128300.00
25400190.00
35040710.00
31918160.00
24600518.00
36295710.00
32400000.00
30299413.00
32496790.15
Ventas y estimacion del 2do trimestre del 2015
VENTAS = YLinear (VENTAS = Y)
Periodos
Vent
as
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140.00
5000000.00
10000000.00
15000000.00
20000000.00
25000000.00
30000000.00
35000000.00
40000000.00
29518320.0028211050.00
25942700.00
33128300.00
25400190.00
35040710.00
31918160.00
24600518.00
36295710.00
32400000.00
30299413.00
32496790.15
Ventas y estimacion del 2do trimestre del 2015
VENTAS = YLinear (VENTAS = Y)
Periodos
Vent
as