UTOCORRELACION

T Yt

1 84.6 -7.16 51.30 0.002 89.9 84.6 -1.86 -7.16 3.47 13.343 81.9 89.9 -9.86 -1.86 97.27 18.374 95.4 81.9 3.64 -9.86 13.23 -35.875 91.2 95.4 -0.56 3.64 0.32 -2.056 89.8 91.2 -1.96 -0.56 3.85 1.107 97.9 89.8 6.14 -1.96 37.67 -12.048 103.4 97.9 11.64 6.14 135.43 71.43

Sumatoria 734.1 342.54 54.2791.7625

T Yt

1 84.6 -7.16 51.30 0.002 89.9 -1.86 3.47 0.003 81.9 84.6 -9.86 -7.16 97.27 70.644 95.4 89.9 3.64 -1.86 13.23 -6.775 91.2 81.9 -0.56 -9.86 0.32 5.556 89.8 95.4 -1.96 3.64 3.85 -7.147 97.9 91.2 6.14 -0.56 37.67 -3.458 103.4 89.8 11.64 -1.96 135.43 -22.84

Sumatoria 734.1 342.54 35.9891.7625

PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS METODOS PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE Y DOBLEPESO n=3 error EC n=4

Periodo/Sem Ventas Yt Pronostico Pronostico1 70.002 68.003 75.004 79.00 71.00 8.00 64.005 67.00 74.00 -7.00 49.00 73.006 81.00 73.67 7.33 53.78 72.257 80.00 75.67 4.33 18.78 75.508 69.00 76.00 -7.00 49.00 76.759 72.00 76.67 -4.67 21.78 74.25

Yt-1 Yt-Ӯ Yt-1-Ӯ (Yt-Ӯ)(Yt-1-Ӯ)

Ӯt

Yt-2 Yt-Ӯ Yt-2-Ӯ (Yt-Ӯ)(Yt-1-Ӯ)

Ӯt

〖 (𝒀𝒕− )Ӯ〗^𝟐

〖 (𝒀𝒕− )Ӯ〗^𝟐

10 68.00 73.67 -5.67 32.11 75.5011 89.00 69.67 19.33 373.78 72.25

12 74.36 76.33 74.5077.12 75.84

Sumatoria 66 74.36 662.22 519.50n= 7

SUMATOR. P.P 78

EMC 60.202020202

P1 Mt= 74.214285714

a= 73.574404762b= -0.21P= 73.361111111

P2 Mt= 74.25

a= 73.944444444b= -0.09P= 73.76984127

PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS METODOS DE SUAVIZACION0.2 error error/Yt 0.4

Periodo/Sem Ventas Yt Pronostico Pronostico1 70.00 70.00 0.00 0.00 70.002 68.00 70.00 -2.00 -0.03 70.003 75.00 69.60 5.40 0.08 69.204 79.00 70.68 8.32 0.12 71.525 67.00 72.34 -5.34 -0.07 74.516 81.00 71.28 9.72 0.14 71.517 80.00 73.22 6.78 0.09 75.308 69.00 74.58 -5.58 -0.07 77.189 72.00 73.46 -1.46 -0.02 73.91

10 68.00 73.17 -5.17 -0.07 73.15

11 89.00 72.13 16.87 0.23 71.0912 ESTIMACION 75.508 ESTIMACION 78.252

'2 ttt MMa

'1

2ttt MM

nb

PEMA 0.1131 PEMA

PREGUNTA S

B) PROMEDIO SIMPLE DE LAS SIGUIENTES 2 SEMANASSEMANA 12 74.36SEMANA 13 74.36

C) PROMEDIO PONDERADO SIGUIENTES 2 SEMANASSEMANA 12 75.56060606SEMANA 13 75.37645688

D) TENDENCIA DE LOS P.M Y PRONOSTICOn=3SEMANA 12 76.33SEMANA 13 77.12

n=4SEMANA 12 74.50SEMANA 13 75.84

E) DE LOS P.M DOBLE Y PRONOSTICO

SEMANA 12= P1 73.36SEMANA 13= P2 73.77

F)ESTIMACION DE SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL DE ALFA 0.2 Y 0.4

SEMANA 11 ALFA 0.2= 75.508 PEMA= 11.31%ALFA 0.4= 78.252 PEMA= 1.70%

G) METODO HOLT WINTERS PRONOSTICO PARA LAS SIGUIENTES 2 SEMANAS.

SEMANA 12 92.97SEMANA 13 101.61

UTOCORRELACION

autocorrelacion de:r1 0.1584r2 0.1050

Varianza0.02510.0110

deviacion estandar

= 0.3537

Prueba de hipotesis

K1 0.4480K2 0.2970

0.44783715013 0.975

PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS METODOS PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE Y DOBLEerror EC n=5 error EC n=3 error

Pronostico PMP Pronostico PMD70.00

136.00225.00316.00

-6.00 36.00 335.008.75 76.56 486.004.50 20.25 560.00-7.75 60.06 552.00 73.58 3.17-2.25 5.06 648.00 74.83 -0.58

√((1+2(0.0251)(0.0110))/8)

〖 (0.1584)〗^2〖 (0.1050)〗^2

-7.50 56.25 680.00 75.50 0.0016.75 280.56 979.00 75.50 -3.25

892.36

534.75 4987.00 299.42n= 4

SUMATOR. P.P 5879.36

EMC 48.6136363636 EMC 1.90277778

Mt´= 74.8541667

Mt´= 74.56

PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS METODOS DE SUAVIZACIONerror error/Yt Ventas Nivel Tendencia

Ӯ´ T´0.00 0.00 70.00-2.00 -0.03 68.00 68.00 -2.005.80 0.08 75.00 73.20 2.327.48 0.10 79.00 78.30 3.99-7.51 -0.10 67.00 70.06 -3.359.49 0.13 81.00 78.14 3.514.70 0.06 80.00 80.33 2.72-8.18 -0.11 69.00 71.81 -4.03-1.91 -0.03 72.00 71.16 -2.00-5.15 -0.07 68.00 68.23 -2.56

17.91 0.25 89.00 84.33 8.64

0.0170

0.2985499 0.01/20.005 0.995

0.01

0.025 0.975

PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS METODOS PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE Y DOBLEEC

10.030.34

0.0010.56

20.93