ARMANDO  SÁNCHEZ  VARGAS  

Métodos econométricos

aplicados a cambio climático

TALLER CLIMA RED

PINCC-UNAM

OBJECTIVES  1.  Propose  a  methodology  to  determine  

the   d ifferenGated   impacts   of  EXTREME   EVENTS   on   socioeconomic  variables  at  the  jurisdicGonal  level  (i.e.  poverty)  

2.  Build   an   appropriate   adaptaGon  public   policy   based   on   our   empirical  results  

                           

BACKGROUND  

WHY  IS  IT  NEEDED?    

1.    C l imate   impac t s   and   soc i a l  vulnerability  are  spaGally  differenGated  

2.  There  are  very    few  micro-­‐  level  studies  3.  inputs   to   design   differenGated   public  

policies  

         •  ClimaGc   Change   has   been   linked   with   changing  levels  of  temperature  and  rainfall.  

 •  Such   extreme   events   have   given   rise   to   several  negaGve   effects   on   the   economic   welfare   of   the  inhabitants,  (specially  the  poor  ones)  

METHODOLOGY  

 HOW  TO  DEVELOP  IT?    1.  By   Combining   climaGc,   spaGal   and  

household’s  survey  data            (GeostaGscal  Basic  Areas    and  household´s    surveys)  2.  Use  conterfactual  staGsGcal  methods  to  

es`mate   the   impacts   and   design   an  adaptaGon  public  policy  

   

2.       •  Use   the   methodology   as   a   tool   to   design  differenGated  public  policy.  

THE  METHODOLOGY  IN  PRACTICE  (flowchart)  

   

1.  SpaGally  idenGfy    counGes,  households  and  climaGc  staGons  

2.  EsGmate  15  extreme  climate  indicators  based  on  25  years  of  daily  records  from  61  staGons  

3.  Map  zones  facing  extreme  events  and  idenGfy  the  affected  people  spaGally  

4.  Construct  comparable  groups  of  affected  and  not  affected  people  .  (PSM)  

5.  Calculate  the  mean  differences  between  socioeconomic  indicators    

Clima&c  Change  Impact  

Control  Group   Treatment  Group  

Counterfactual  PSM  

Econometric  Impacts