limites de confianza

7/26/2019 LIMITES DE CONFIANZA

1/27

Tabla 1COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION

Ao

x y

1963 1477.00 2.65 2,181,529.00

1964 1079.30 6.55 1,164,888.49

1965 1053.90 6.30 1,110,705.21

1966 831.50 5.31 691,392.25

1967 1094.40 7.63 1,197,711.36

1968 497.00 2.62 247,009.00

1969 1008.80 5.24 1,017,677.44

1970 1377.40 6.57 1,897,230.76

1971 1446.50 12.48 2,092,362.25

1972 1166.20 9.69 1,360,022.44

1973 1222.80 12.87 1,495,239.84

1974 778.40 4.43 605,906.56

1975 1410.70 11.94 1,990,074.491976 949.30 6.70 901,170.49

1977 846.60 7.23 716,731.56

1978 828.30 4.11 686,080.89

1979 620.50 4.55 385,020.25

1980 590.90 2.49 349,162.81

1981 875.70 5.26 766,850.49

1982 650.30 4.28 422,890.09

1983 1328.60 21.08 1,765,177.96

1984 1949.00 9.67 3,798,601.00

1985 802.30 3.33 643,685.29

PrecipitacionTotalAnual

CaudalesMediosAnuales

X2


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1986 1198.70 6.10 1,436,881.69

1987 1318.40 5.95 1,738,178.56

1988 1285.70 4.15 1,653,024.49

1989 1765.40 6.82 3,116,637.16

1990 878.00 2.98 770,884.001991 1162.30 3.58 1,350,941.29

1992 1116.20 4.74 1,245,902.44

1993 1524.20 7.56 2,323,185.64

1994 1100.90 7.83 1,211,980.81

1995 933.60 4.71 871,608.96

1996 876.60 5.39 768,427.56

1997 992.80 4.89 985,651.84

1998 2295.00 28.61 5,267,025.00

1999 1430.10 9.52 2,045,186.01

2000 1391.40 8.80 1,935,993.96

2001 1324.60 10.90 1,754,565.16

2002 1030.10 10.80 1,061,106.01

2003 735.20 7.37 540,519.04

2004 767.60 6.10 589,209.76

2005 751.90 4.97 565,353.61

2006 1175.30 8.17 1,381,330.09

2007 933.40 6.54 871,235.56

2008 1620.10 11.58 2,624,724.01

SUMA 51492.90 341.04 63596672.57


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Alu#no$Codi%o$Data$

Estacion$CuencaData$Estacion$Cuenca$

Ao

XY

3,914.05 1963

7,069.42 1964

6,639.57 1965

4,415.27 1966

8,350.27 1967

1,302.14 1968

5,286.11 1969

9,049.52 1970

18,052.32 1971

11,300.48 1972

15,737.44 1973

3,448.31 1974

16,843.76 1975

6,360.31 1976

6,120.92 1977

3,404.31 1978

2,823.28 1979

1,471.34 1980

4,606.18 1981

2,783.28 1982

28,006.89 1983

18,846.83 1984

2,671.66 1985


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7,312.07 1986

7,844.48 1987

5,335.66 1988

12,040.03 1989

2,616.44 1990 4,161.03 1991

5,290.79 1992

11,522.95 1993

8,620.05 1994

4,397.26 1995

4,724.87 1996

4,854.79 1997

65,659.95 1998

13,614.55 1999

12,244.32 2000

14,438.14 2001

11,125.08 2002

5,418.42 2003

4,682.36 2004

3,736.94 2005

9,602.20 2006

6,104.44 2007

18,760.76 2008

432611.23


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Ri*eros Matos+ (osi#o

Precipitacion Total Anual

ParonRio "antaCaudales Medios AnualesParonRio "anta

Tabla &INTER'ALO" DE CONFIAN(A PARA a ) b

x y

1477.00 2.65 10.4672 61.1093

1079.30 6.55 7.0714 0.2719

1053.90 6.30 6.8545 0.3075

831.50 5.31 4.9555 0.1256

1094.40 7.63 7.2004 0.1846

497.00 2.62 2.0994 0.2711

1008.80 5.24 6.4694 1.5115

1377.40 6.57 9.6168 9.2829

1446.50 12.48 10.2068 5.1674

1166.20 9.69 7.8134 3.5215

1222.80 12.87 8.2967 20.9149

778.40 4.43 4.5021 0.0052

1410.70 11.94 9.9011 4.1570

949.30 6.70 5.9614 0.5455

846.60 7.23 5.0845 4.6033

828.30 4.11 4.9282 0.6695

620.50 4.55 3.1539 1.9491

590.90 2.49 2.9011 0.1690

875.70 5.26 5.3330 0.0053

650.30 4.28 3.4083 0.7598

1328.60 21.08 9.2001 141.1319

1949.00 9.67 14.4975 23.3046

802.30 3.33 4.7062 1.8940

PrecipitacionTotalAnual

CaudalesMediosAnuales

i

(y - i)2


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1198.70 6.10 8.0909 3.9638

1318.40 5.95 9.1130 10.0046

1285.70 4.15 8.8338 21.9380

1765.40 6.82 12.9298 37.3295

878.00 2.98 5.3526 5.62921162.30 3.58 7.7801 17.6411

1116.20 4.74 7.3865 7.0039

1524.20 7.56 10.8703 10.9579

1100.90 7.83 7.2559 0.3296

933.60 4.71 5.8273 1.2484

876.60 5.39 5.3406 0.0024

992.80 4.89 6.3328 2.0817

2295.00 28.61 17.4519 124.5041

1430.10 9.52 10.0668 0.2990

1391.40 8.80 9.7363 0.8767

1324.60 10.90 9.1660 3.0069

1030.10 10.80 6.6513 17.2116

735.20 7.37 4.1333 10.4764

767.60 6.10 4.4099 2.8564

751.90 4.97 4.2759 0.4818

1175.30 8.17 7.8911 0.0778

933.40 6.54 5.8256 0.5103

1620.10 11.58 11.6891 0.0119


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10/27

127,869.9862

1,608.8819 INTER'ALO" DE CONFIA4,291.6740

82,892.6688 497.00 2.0994 1.2745

625.5436 556.93 2.6111 1.2134

387,395.2906 616.87 3.1229 1.1558

12,234.7645 676.80 3.6346 1.1022

66,558.3914 736.73 4.1464 1.0531

106,987.2992 796.67 4.6581 1.0093

2,189.2227 856.60 5.1699 0.9714

10,689.3123 916.53 5.6816 0.9402

116,288.4132 976.47 6.1934 0.9163

84,849.3575 1036.40 6.7051 0.9003

28,937.7079 1096.33 7.2169 0.8928

74,425.7706 1156.27 7.7286 0.8938

84,745.5384 1216.20 8.2404 0.9033

248,912.0558 1276.13 8.7521 0.9211

279,323.7392 1336.07 9.2639 0.9467

59,394.9879 1396.00 9.7756 0.9795

220,065.0079 1455.93 10.2874 1.0189

43,760.0923 1515.87 10.7991 1.0640

688,218.1253 1575.80 11.3109 1.1141

100,559.3036 1635.73 11.8226 1.1687

(xi- )2

xk

yk

Syk

x


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6,286.7662 1695.67 12.3344 1.2272

39,596.6740 1755.60 12.8461 1.2889

27,652.0749 1815.53 13.3579 1.3536

417,301.9566 1875.47 13.8696 1.4207

58,279.2079 1935.40 14.3814 1.4899 1,839.4775 1995.33 14.8931 1.5610

10.3097 2055.27 15.4049 1.6336

163,854.2401 2115.20 15.9166 1.7077

342.6523 2175.13 16.4284 1.7830

34,525.6792 2235.07 16.9401 1.8595

58,957.1184 2295.00 17.4519 1.9368

16,030.3123

1,382,009.8036

96,527.7358

73,978.0871

42,102.5792

7,976.4314

147,617.9923

123,770.8879

135,064.2392

3,123.5949

34,600.0436

250,689.6053


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13/27

PRUEBA DE IP!TE"I" PARA EL COEFICIE

Tabla ,(A PARA LA LINEA DE RE-RE"ION

1.2326 2.9661

1.7858 3.4364

2.3368 3.9090

2.8850 4.3842

3.4301 4.8626

3.9717 5.3445

4.5092 5.8305

5.0422 6.3210

5.5702 6.8165 Li#ite Ma.i#o$ &&/022

6.0928 7.3174Li#ite M3ni#o$ 4/522

6.6097 7.8240 N6 Inter*alo ,2

7.1208 8.3365 Inter*alo$ 0//,,,,,

7.6260 8.8547

8.1257 9.3786

8.6200 9.9077

9.1094 10.4418

9.5944 10.9803

10.0755 11.5227

10.5531 12.0686

11.0277 12.6175

1

2


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11.4997 13.1690

11.9695 13.7227

12.4373 14.2784

12.9034 14.8358

13.3681 15.394613.8315 15.9547

14.2938 16.5159

14.7552 17.0780

15.2157 17.6410

15.6755 18.2047

16.1346 18.7691


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16/27

TE DE CORRELACI!N

1 Prueba de la 7ipotesis para el coe8ciente

1.1. Fo!"#$%io& ' #$ i*o+i

o / 0

$ / 0

1.2. i# ' i&ii%$%io& ()

0.5

1.3. S#%%i& ' #$ *"$ :1.4. ;+!i&$%io& '# $#o %$#%"#$'o ' #$ *"

$##$&'o %o


17/27

3.569

12.734

2.2. $##$&'o S$ ($i$&G$ ' $)

2.9562.3. $##$&'o S ( $i$&G$ ' )

2.13842D-006

2.4. @o #i!i+ ' %o&


18/27

D&%o&+$!o *"&+o C" +E& "$ ' #$ #H&$ ' %o&


19/27

de correlaci9n

:%

=2 ) *$$ "&$ i& #i&$#

*$$ "&$ i& #i&$#

o ' #$ +$#$ ' + ' +"'&+

, es decir 0, hay buena relacion entre las variables

de la ecduacion de re%resi9n lineal

!*o+$!i&+o ' x (*%i*i+$%io&) y (%o&+i$) 0.0085387

21

2

R

n


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si9n y

2*$$ %$'$ $#o $*oxi!$'o ' x

k

Caudales Medios ;


21/27

" C"i '%i C" #$ %"$%io& #i&$# y 0.648 x - 13.2 &o x*#i%$ '# +o'o # %o!*o+$

;$+$ X @i&$ (;$+$ X) @i!i+ I&io @i!i


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23/27

s Precipitaci9n Total ;.=


24/27

!i&+o ' &"+$ $i$# x y

+ S"*io


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