La Cláusula RUFOArgentina: Hold-Ins y Hold-Outs.

Alejandro Rodríguez, Ph.D.UCEMA.

Aviso

Esta presentación es con fines educativosexclusivamente y no es más que una guía paramotivar la discusión académica en un ámbitouniversitario. El autor y la Universidad del CEMAno garantizanque la información presentadaesprecisay actual y no son responsablespor losno garantizanque la información presentadaesprecisay actual y no son responsablespor loserrores que pueda contener este documento ni porel uso de dicha información por parte de terceros.Las opiniones aquí expresadas no representan demanera alguna a la opinión de la Universidad delCEMA.

Entre la Espada y La Pared

• El fallo de Griesa dice que si Argentina paga alos hold-ins (HI) le tiene que pagar a los hold-outs (HO). Aviso: Es mi interpretación.

• Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) es una• Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) es unacláusula presente en los prospectos de lasreestructuraciones de 2005 y 2010.

• Los HI pueden pedir lo mismo que los HO. Nosignifica que argentina se lo tenga que dar.

RUFO: Versión 2005

Under the terms of the Pars, Discount and Quasi-pars, if followingthe expiration of the Offeruntil December 31, 2014, and except asprovided below, Argentinavoluntarily makes an offer to purchaseor exchange or solicits consents to amend any Eligible Securities nottendered or accepted pursuant to the Offer, Argentina has agreed thatit will take all steps necessary, including making any requiredfilings, so that eachholder of Pars, Discountsor Quasi-pars willfilings, so that eachholder of Pars, Discountsor Quasi-pars willhave the right, for a period of at least 30 days following theannouncement of such offer,to exchange any of such holder'sPars, Discounts or Quasi-pars for(as applicable):– the consideration in cash or in kind received in connection with such

purchase or exchange offer, as the case may be, or– securitieshaving terms substantially the same as those resulting from

such amendment process

RUFO: Versión 2005

in each case in accordance with the terms andconditions of such exchange offer or amendmentprocess. For this purpose, such Pars, Discounts orQuasi-pars will be treated as though they were EligibleSecuritiesthat:Securitiesthat:– are in the same currency as such Pars, Discounts or Quasi-

pars, and– have an Eligible Amount equal to the Eligible Amount of

the Eligible Securities that would have been originallyexchanged for such Pars, Discounts or Quasi-pars pursuantto the Offer (determined by applying the inverse of therelevant exchange ratio applied in the Offer).

RUFO: Versión 2005

In order to participate in any such purchase, exchange oramendment process, holder of Pars, Discounts or Quasi-parswill berequired to surrender GDP-linked Securities in a notional amountequal to the Eligible Amount of Eligible Securities tendered inexchange for such Pars, Discounts and/or Quasi-pars, or, but only ifan active trading market and published secondary market pricequotationsexist for GDP-linked Securities,pay cashto Argentinaquotationsexist for GDP-linked Securities,pay cashto Argentinain an amount equal to the market price of that amount of GDP-linked Securities calculated on the market observation date that isat least six months prior to the announcement of such futuretransaction.The “market observation date” for this purpose isany March 31 or September 30, on which dates the trustee willcalculate the market price of the GDP-linked Securities.

RUFO: Versión 2005

• This “Rights upon Future Offers” covenantconstitutes a “reserve matter” under the termsof the NewSecurities, andany modification,amendment, supplement or waiver to thisamendment, supplement or waiver to thiscovenant is a “reserve matter modification”under the terms of the NewSecurities issuedpursuant to the trust indenture.

Reserve MatterWe refer to the above subjects as “reserve matters” and to any modification,amendment, supplement or waiver constituting a reserve matter as a “reserve mattermodification.”Any reserve matter modification to the terms and conditions of the debt securitiesof a single series, or to the indenture insofar as it affects the debt securities of asingle series, may generally be made, and future compliance therewith may bewaived, with the consent of Argentina and the holders of not less than 75% inaggregate principal amount of the debt securities of such series at the timeoutstanding.If Argentina proposes any reserve matter modification to the terms andIf Argentina proposes any reserve matter modification to the terms andconditions of the debt securities of two or more series,or to the indenture insofaras it affects the debt securities of two or more series, in either case as part of asingle transaction, Argentina may elect to proceed pursuant to provisions of theindenture providing that such modifications may be made, and future compliancetherewith may be waived, for each affected series if made with the consent ofArgentina and‚– the holders of not less than 85% in aggregate principal amountof the

outstanding debt securities of all series that would be affected by thatmodification(taken in aggregate), and‚

– the holders of not less than 66.6% in aggregate principal amountof theoutstanding debt securities ofthat series(taken individually)

Reserve Matter

Provided, however, that for purposes of determining whether the requiredpercentage of holders of thenotes has approved any modification pursuantto the indenture or, in the case of a meeting, whether sufficient holders arepresent for quorum purposes,any debt securities owned or controlled,directly or indirectly, by Argentina or any public sector in strumentalityof Argentina will be disregarded and deemed to be not outstanding. Asused in this paragraph, “public sector instrumentality” means BancoCentral de la RepúblicaArgentina,any department,ministry or agencyofCentral de la RepúblicaArgentina,any department,ministry or agencyofthe government of Argentina or anycorporation, trust, financial institutionor other entity owned or controlled by the government of Argentina or anyof the foregoing, and, with respect to any “public sector instrumentality,”“control” means the power, directly or indirectly, through theownership of voting securities or other ownership interestor otherwise,to direct the management of or elect or appoint a majority of the boardof directors or other persons performing similar functions in lieu of, orin addition to, the board of directors of a corporation, trust, financialinstitution or other entity.

RUFO: Versión 2010

• Muy parecida a la versión 2005.• Dos diferencias:

– En el canje 2010 además de Cupones PBI algunosbonistas recibieron bonos Global 2017 o Efectivo.

– La fechade observaciónde mercadoparaponerleun– La fechade observaciónde mercadoparaponerleunvalor a los Cupones PBI es diferente.

• …the market observation date thatis at least one monthprior to the announcement of such future transaction. The“market observation date” for this purposeis the last day ofeach month, on which dates the trustee will calculate themarket price of the GDP-linked Securities.

Estrategias: Esperar

• Dilatar la negociación con los HOhasta el 2015 yesperar que venza la RUFO.

• Para ello se necesita un nuevostayque permita elpago a los HI.

• Por ahora parece ser que solo los HOestarían encondiciones de pedir y obtener elstay.

• Riesgo: Los HI pueden ir a juicio argumentandoque la oferta a los HOya estaba hecha antes del31/12/2014 y que simplemente se postergó elanuncio.

Estrategia: Comprar HI + Waiver

• Un grupo de inversores “amigos” compra85%+ de la deuda en manos de los HI parapedir unwaiverde la cláusula RUFO.

• Riesgo: Que el 15%- restante vaya a juicio yargumente que la Argentina ejercía controlsobre estos inversores mediante algún tipo deacuerdo.

Estrategia: Comprar HO + Esperar

• Un grupo de inversores “amigos” le compra la deuda a los HO y esperar hasta 2015 para negociar con los nuevos dueños.

• Riesgo: Nuevamente se podría argumentar que el acuerdo ya estaba hecho con anterioridad y los HI podrían pedir la RUFO.

Estrategia: Pagar

• Argentina le paga a los HO.

• Riesgo: Los HI pueden pedir que se aplique laRUFO.RUFO.

En todos los casos…

• (Aunque más en unos que en otros) Argentina puede argumentarquelos pagos a los HO no constituyen una oferta voluntaria de su parteya que cuenta con un sentencia firme en su contra que la obligaapagar.

• Puntos a favor:– Argentina no negocia con los HO directamente y lo hace vía un

mediador(Pollak) designadoporel juez.mediador(Pollak) designadoporel juez.– Los discursos de los representantes argentinos que dicen que Argentina

no le va a pagar a los HO.– El amague de pagarle a los HI. Griesa ordenó al BONY a no girar ese

pago a los HI.• Puntos en contra:

– La solicitada en el WSJ donde dice:To make matters worse, under thelaws of Argentina and the clauses governing the restructuredinstruments (RUFO),if the vulture funds were to be paid, all otherbondholders would demand equal treatment.

Forma de Pagar

• Argentina debe buscar la forma de pagarle a los HO de la forma que le resulte lo menos atractiva a los HI.

• Claramente los HI y los HO son individuos • Claramente los HI y los HO son individuos diferentes. Se puede buscar la forma de hacer algún tipo de discriminación.

• Riesgo: Los HI actuales pueden vender sus bonos a individuos como los HO.

Otras Estrategias

• Soy todo oídos.