irrigacion coronado
DESCRIPTION
asdeaTRANSCRIPT
DATOS HIDROMETEOROLOGICOS DE LA ESTACIN
1. Datos generalesNombre de la estacin: AricotaDepartamento: TacnaProvincia: CandaraveDistrito: QuilahuaniFuente de informacin: Pagina de ANANmero de aos tomados para el clculo: 43 aos
2. Ubicacin geogrficaLatitud: 1720Longitud: 1724Altitud: 2825 msnm
De la pgina del ANA, se puede ver 7 estaciones en la cuenca Locumba; de las cuales las de color blanco, que son 6, ya no existen.
Podemos ver la ubicacin de la estacin ARICOTA, la cual se Encuentra cercana a la laguna ARICOTA.3. Tipo de cultivo
Cultivo: TrigoTiempo de cultivo: 5 mesesrea: 4000m2
4. Calculo de la Oferta hdrica
Para el clculo de la oferta hdrica se tom en cuenta 43 aos de datos hidrometeorologicos, con la cual se procedio a ordenar en forma descendente y hallar la frecuencia para cada uno de los 43 aos.
Se ubic la frecuencia perteneciente al 0.75 y se procedi a interpolar si fuera necesario.
AOQPROM-MENSUAL
EFMAMJJASOND
19631.602.531.081.251.251.241.101.171.371.181.151.38
19641.582.141.781.421.251.191.211.201.211.021.021.14
19651.002.061.051.001.051.191.091.001.121.041.080.99
19660.870.950.960.940.940.940.920.960.840.830.810.82
19670.792.504.461.501.141.071.030.920.980.910.860.84
19682.512.239.521.781.091.011.010.960.770.750.840.78
19691.033.022.650.870.780.780.810.980.730.690.680.68
19703.551.973.760.910.900.880.860.900.860.810.830.95
19711.745.303.191.001.021.040.940.920.990.780.760.75
19725.187.068.774.691.361.181.181.091.030.940.951.84
19734.719.438.445.461.760.971.101.161.041.000.942.56
19746.059.086.883.521.210.730.951.111.071.181.030.94
19754.469.028.466.381.710.920.861.631.401.160.842.91
19765.287.335.563.571.391.201.141.410.831.801.291.22
19773.609.876.914.951.031.031.241.571.071.070.892.23
19782.852.812.271.811.491.501.081.181.381.161.371.47
19791.552.391.551.621.301.141.221.461.421.140.982.43
19801.321.301.661.271.311.230.710.730.931.341.461.01
19812.016.203.181.701.250.931.140.820.810.980.841.15
19821.671.851.181.391.221.021.101.020.960.920.911.07
19831.271.641.260.861.211.040.740.940.820.980.971.32
19841.305.534.111.490.840.850.981.211.091.081.181.19
19852.148.655.091.681.080.990.961.041.001.130.921.28
19866.517.375.162.801.281.121.041.461.120.870.891.49
19878.405.673.272.191.051.031.041.091.120.900.841.30
19882.602.151.511.341.151.191.031.130.930.970.931.50
19892.533.623.842.241.191.201.181.161.191.000.991.21
19901.962.221.281.231.201.081.091.010.911.020.961.38
19912.202.732.091.631.211.151.131.060.970.981.091.13
19921.451.891.651.371.201.101.101.281.181.361.282.32
19934.612.132.551.521.711.811.731.841.621.661.471.51
19944.1611.002.641.871.661.711.631.541.551.201.121.29
19952.191.623.901.381.251.391.391.521.321.060.951.10
19961.923.412.621.331.211.181.261.351.150.920.910.95
19972.349.206.081.831.731.581.371.351.441.221.011.13
19983.112.241.161.241.301.511.341.251.121.011.011.12
19991.0511.8010.762.302.121.671.171.301.071.031.031.02
20002.677.385.711.911.621.611.481.531.231.060.920.89
20012.2417.6817.092.632.322.352.492.411.731.671.501.74
20022.005.369.284.513.252.874.133.561.582.011.611.57
20031.701.632.941.691.751.691.611.591.451.201.081.05
20041.954.392.141.541.481.621.831.971.591.281.221.12
20062.7210.2310.176.172.542.191.971.951.681.531.581.41
CALCULO DE PROBABILIDAD DE EXCEDENCIA DE CAUDALES
ORDENCAUDALES ORDENADOSFRECUENCIA
EFMAMJJASOND
18.4017.6817.096.383.252.874.133.561.732.011.612.912.27
26.5111.8010.766.172.542.352.492.411.681.801.582.564.55
36.0511.0010.175.462.322.191.971.971.621.671.502.436.82
45.2810.239.524.952.121.811.831.951.591.661.472.329.09
55.189.879.284.691.761.711.731.841.581.531.462.2311.36
64.719.438.774.511.751.691.631.631.551.361.371.8413.64
74.619.208.463.571.731.671.611.591.451.341.291.7415.91
84.469.088.443.521.711.621.481.571.441.281.281.5718.18
94.169.026.912.801.711.611.391.541.421.221.221.5120.45
103.608.656.882.631.661.581.371.531.401.201.181.5022.73
113.557.386.082.301.621.511.341.521.381.201.151.4925.00
123.117.375.712.241.491.501.261.461.371.181.121.4727.27
132.857.335.562.191.481.391.241.461.321.181.091.4129.55
142.727.065.161.911.391.241.221.411.231.161.081.3831.82
152.676.205.091.871.361.231.211.351.211.161.081.3834.09
162.605.674.461.831.311.201.181.351.191.141.031.3236.36
172.535.534.111.811.301.201.181.301.181.131.031.3038.64
182.515.363.901.781.301.191.171.281.151.081.021.2940.91
192.345.303.841.701.281.191.141.251.121.071.011.2843.18
202.244.393.761.691.251.191.141.211.121.061.011.2245.45
212.203.623.271.681.251.181.131.201.121.060.991.2147.73
222.193.413.191.631.251.181.101.181.121.040.981.1950.00
232.143.023.181.621.251.151.101.171.091.030.971.1552.27
242.012.812.941.541.221.141.101.161.071.020.961.1454.55
252.002.732.651.521.211.121.101.161.071.020.951.1356.82
261.962.532.641.501.211.101.091.131.071.010.951.1359.09
271.952.502.621.491.211.081.091.111.041.000.941.1261.36
281.922.392.551.421.211.071.081.091.031.000.931.1263.64
291.742.242.271.391.201.041.041.091.000.980.921.1065.91
301.702.232.141.381.201.041.041.060.990.980.921.0768.18
311.672.222.091.371.191.031.031.040.980.980.911.0570.45
321.602.151.781.341.151.031.031.020.970.970.911.0272.73
331.582.141.661.331.141.021.011.010.960.940.891.0175.00
341.552.131.651.271.091.010.981.000.930.920.890.9977.27
351.452.061.551.251.080.990.960.980.930.920.860.9579.55
361.321.971.511.241.050.970.950.960.910.910.840.9581.82
371.301.891.281.231.050.940.940.960.860.900.840.9484.09
381.271.851.261.001.030.930.920.940.840.870.840.8986.36
391.051.641.181.001.020.920.860.920.830.830.840.8488.64
401.031.631.160.920.940.880.860.920.820.810.830.8290.91
411.001.621.080.910.900.850.810.900.810.780.810.7893.18
420.871.301.050.870.840.780.740.820.770.750.760.7595.45
430.790.950.960.860.780.730.710.730.730.690.680.6897.73
Ubicamos la frecuencia del 75%, y as encontraremos los valores mensuales de Q75%
CAUDAL CONPROB DE EXCEDCAUDALES (m3/s)FREC.
EFMAMJJASOND
Q50%2.193.413.191.631.251.181.101.181.121.040.981.191.62
Q75%1.582.141.661.331.141.021.011.010.960.940.891.011.22
Q95%0.891.371.070.870.850.790.750.840.780.760.780.760.88
Entonces la oferta hdrica en MMC ser:OFERTA HIDRICA - ESTACION ARICOTA (PROBABILIDAD AL 75%)
MESEFMAMJJASONDPROM
Q (m3/s)1.582.141.661.331.141.021.011.010.960.940.891.011.22
VOL (MMC)4.235.184.453.443.052.642.712.712.492.522.312.713.20
5. Calculo de la DemandaPara el clculo de oferta hdrica se ha realizado con el mtodo de Blaney, en la cual se ha usado las siguientes expresiones para su clculo mensual.MesTEMP PROMC%p(15)%p(20)%p(17 20')KcKtU(mm/mes)
ENERO17.39.059.249.210.720.7882.75
FEBRERO17.27.988.098.080.930.7893.03
MARZO15.18.558.578.570.930.7184.95
ABRIL14.38.027.947.950.800.6863.84
MAYO19.18.027.857.870.580.8364.19
JUNIO13.67.657.437.460.000.660.00
JULIO10.17.957.767.790.000.550.00
AGOSTO16.508.158.038.050.720.7568.35
SEPTIEMBRE11.008.158.138.130.930.5857.89
OCTUBRE12.208.688.768.750.930.6269.04
NOVIEMBRE20.408.708.878.850.800.87108.01
DICIEMBRE14.309.109.339.300.580.6854.14
Para el cultivo de la ecuacin de Blaney:
MesENEROFEBMARZOABRILMAYOJUNIOJULIOAGSEPTOCTNOVDICIEM
Dias312931303130313130313031
U(mm/mes)82.7593.0384.9563.8464.190.000.0068.3557.8969.04108.0154.14
Area400040004000400040004000400040004000400040004000
Qu(m3/s)1.241.491.270.990.960.000.001.020.891.031.670.81
n (conduc. + aplicac.)0.480.480.480.480.480.480.480.480.480.480.480.48
Qbocatoma (m3/s)2.573.092.642.052.000.000.002.131.862.153.471.68
V(MMC)6.907.757.085.325.350.000.005.704.825.759.004.51
Entonces la demanda hdrica del proyecto para las 4000 Ha proyectadas es:DEMANDA HIDRICA DEL PROYECTO
MESENEROFEBMARZOABRILMAYOJUNIOJULIOAGSEPTOCTNOVDICIEM
VOLUMEN (MMC)6.90 7.75 7.08 5.32 5.35 0.00 0.00 5.70 4.82 5.75 9.00 4.51
6. Balance hdrico
BALANCE HIDRICO
ITEMEFMAMJJASONDTOTAL
DEMANDA TOTAL6.907.757.085.325.350.000.005.704.825.759.004.5162.18
OFERTA AL 75%4.23 5.18 4.45 3.44 3.05 2.64 2.71 2.71 2.49 2.52 2.31 2.62 38.34
BALANCE (MMC)-2.66 -2.58 -2.63 -1.88 -2.30 2.64 2.71 -2.99 -2.34 -3.24 -6.69 -1.89 -23.85
DEFICIT (MMC)-2.7-2.6-2.6-1.9-2.32.62.7-3.0-2.3-3.2-6.7-1.9-23.8
Haciendo el balance hdrico se determinara que el volumen til ser de:
VOLUMEN UTIL DEL EMBALSE (MMC)24.0
7. Clculo de caudales de avenidas
Para determinar los caudales de avenidas procederemos a establecer el modelo probabilstico que mejor represente el comportamiento hidrolgico, para esto usaremos la prueba de bondad de ajuste del chi cuadrado.
Factor de fuller
Caudal mximo instantneo
Numero de intervalos de clase
Amplitud del intervalo de clase
Amplitud intervalo de clase
Qmax25.81
Qmin1.40
Q4.88078817
Calculo del primer intervalo de clase
AOQPROM-MENSUALQmaxANUALQmaxINSTANT.
EFMAMJJASOND
19631.602.531.081.251.251.241.101.171.371.181.151.382.533.69
19641.582.141.781.421.251.191.211.201.211.021.021.142.143.12
19651.002.061.051.001.051.191.091.001.121.041.080.992.063.01
19660.870.950.960.940.940.940.920.960.840.830.810.820.961.40
19670.792.504.461.501.141.071.030.920.980.910.860.844.466.51
19682.512.239.521.781.091.011.010.960.770.750.840.789.5213.90
19691.033.022.650.870.780.780.810.980.730.690.680.683.024.41
19703.551.973.760.910.900.880.860.900.860.810.830.953.765.49
19711.745.303.191.001.021.040.940.920.990.780.760.755.307.74
19725.187.068.774.691.361.181.181.091.030.940.951.848.7712.80
19734.719.438.445.461.760.971.101.161.041.000.942.569.4313.77
19746.059.086.883.521.210.730.951.111.071.181.030.949.0813.26
19754.469.028.466.381.710.920.861.631.401.160.842.919.0213.17
19765.287.335.563.571.391.201.141.410.831.801.291.227.3310.70
19773.609.876.914.951.031.031.241.571.071.070.892.239.8714.41
19782.852.812.271.811.491.501.081.181.381.161.371.472.854.16
19791.552.391.551.621.301.141.221.461.421.140.982.432.433.55
19801.321.301.661.271.311.230.710.730.931.341.461.011.662.42
19812.016.203.181.701.250.931.140.820.810.980.841.156.209.05
19821.671.851.181.391.221.021.101.020.960.920.911.071.852.70
19831.271.641.260.861.211.040.740.940.820.980.971.321.642.39
19841.305.534.111.490.840.850.981.211.091.081.181.195.538.07
19852.148.655.091.681.080.990.961.041.001.130.921.288.6512.62
19866.517.375.162.801.281.121.041.461.120.870.891.497.3710.76
19878.405.673.272.191.051.031.041.091.120.900.841.308.4012.26
19882.602.151.511.341.151.191.031.130.930.970.931.502.603.80
19892.533.623.842.241.191.201.181.161.191.000.991.213.845.61
19901.962.221.281.231.201.081.091.010.911.020.961.382.223.24
19912.202.732.091.631.211.151.131.060.970.981.091.132.733.99
19921.451.891.651.371.201.101.101.281.181.361.282.322.323.39
19934.612.132.551.521.711.811.731.841.621.661.471.514.616.73
19944.1611.002.641.871.661.711.631.541.551.201.121.2911.0016.05
19952.191.623.901.381.251.391.391.521.321.060.951.103.905.70
19961.923.412.621.331.211.181.261.351.150.920.910.953.414.98
19972.349.206.081.831.731.581.371.351.441.221.011.139.2013.43
19983.112.241.161.241.301.511.341.251.121.011.011.123.114.54
19991.0511.8010.762.302.121.671.171.301.071.031.031.0211.8017.22
20002.677.385.711.911.621.611.481.531.231.060.920.897.3810.78
20012.2417.6817.092.632.322.352.492.411.731.671.501.7417.6825.81
20022.005.369.284.513.252.874.133.561.582.011.611.579.2813.55
20031.701.632.941.691.751.691.611.591.451.201.081.052.944.29
20041.954.392.141.541.481.621.831.971.591.281.221.124.396.40
20062.7210.2310.176.172.542.191.971.951.681.531.581.4110.2314.93
Promedio de valores agrupados Desviacin estndar de valores agrupadosKLinfer.Lsuper.MclaseZinfZsup
1-1.743.841.0511-1.8183-0.7545
23.849.426.6315-0.75450.3092
39.4215.0012.21150.30921.3730
415.0020.5917.8011.37302.4367
520.5926.1723.3812.43673.5005
626.1731.7528.9603.50054.5643
KZinfZsupF(Z)infF(Z)supe
1-1.8183-0.75450.030990.210847.73351.3797
2-0.75450.30920.210840.6402018.46230.6493
30.30921.37300.640200.9224512.13680.6755
41.37302.43670.922450.993523.05631.3835
52.43673.50050.993520.999800.26991.9755
63.50054.56430.999801.000860.04570.0457
6.1092
De la tabla de distribucin Chi cuadrado:Grado de libertad=6-2-1=3Nivel de significacin 5%Obtenemos el valor de 7.81
Conclusin:
Entonces el registro de caudales se ajusta a una distribucin normal de probabilidades con un nivel de significacin de 5%.
Calculo de f(z)123
ZF(Z)1-F(Z)ZF(Z)1-F(Z)ZF(Z)1-F(Z)
1.80.96780.70.77340.30.6368
1.81830.969006630.030993370.75450.789157810.2108421850.30920.640197260.35980274
1.90.97440.80.80230.40.6736
456
ZF(Z)1-F(Z)ZF(Z)1-F(Z)ZF(Z)1-F(Z)
1.30.91152.40.99292.60.996
1.37300.92244830.07755172.43670.993524680.0064753233.50051.00500503-0.00500503
1.40.92652.50.99462.70.997
6
ZF(Z)1-F(Z)ZF(Z)1-F(Z)
3.30.99963.30.9996
3.40.99970.00033.40.99970.0003
3.50050.99980054.56431.00086426
Aplicando Log normalSe procede a calcular el logaritmo natural de los mximos caudales instantneos, la cual denominaremos como Y: AOQmax.anualQmax.instY=Ln(Qm.inst)(Y-)2
19632.533.691.30560.3677
19642.143.121.13780.5994
19652.063.011.10190.6563
19660.961.40.33652.4824
19674.466.511.87330.0015
19689.5213.92.63190.5182
19693.024.411.48390.1833
19703.765.491.70290.0437
19715.37.742.04640.0181
19728.7712.82.54940.4063
19739.4313.772.62250.5048
19749.0813.262.58480.4525
19759.0213.172.57790.4434
19767.3310.72.37020.2100
19779.8714.412.66790.5714
19782.854.161.42550.2367
19792.433.551.26690.4161
19801.662.420.88381.0573
19816.29.052.20280.0845
19821.852.70.99330.8442
19831.642.390.87131.0831
19845.538.072.08820.0310
19858.6512.622.53530.3884
19867.3710.762.37580.2151
19878.412.262.50630.3532
19882.63.81.33500.3330
19893.845.611.72460.0352
19902.223.241.17560.5424
19912.733.991.38380.2790
19922.323.391.22080.4778
19934.616.731.90660.0000
19941116.052.77570.7459
19953.95.71.74050.0294
19963.414.981.60540.0940
19979.213.432.59750.4699
19983.114.541.51290.1593
199911.817.222.84610.8724
20007.3810.782.37770.2168
200117.6825.813.25081.7922
20029.2813.552.60640.4821
20032.944.291.45630.2077
20044.396.41.85630.0031
200610.2314.932.70340.6262
1.912019.5351
Con los valores de Y calculados se halla el promedio de estos valores
Por ultimo calculamos la desviacin estndar de los valores de Y
Calculo de los caudales de avenidas para 50, 100 y 500 aos:
Para periodo de retorno de 50 aos
De la tabla de distribucin normal: 0.9798182
0.982.0041
0.9842222.1
Remplazando en la expresin
Para periodo de retorno de 100 aos
De la tabla de distribucin normal: 0.9877762.2
0.992.2784
0.9906132.3
Remplazando en la expresin
Para periodo de retorno de 500 aos
De la tabla de distribucin normal: 0.9978142.8
0.9982.8312
0.9984112.9
Remplazando en la expresin
Aplicando gumbelComo el nmero de datos es 43 y es menor a 100, podemos hallar el de la siguiente tabla:
Interpolamos para el valor de 43 y obtenemos:
Calculo de las variables y :
Calculo de los caudales de avenidas para 50, 100 y 500 aos: Para 50 aos
Para 100 aos
Para 500 aos