información china algodón.pdf

8/11/2019 Informacin China Algodn.pdf

1/22

ChinasCottonPolicy:

New

Directions

in

2014

Stephen

MacDonald,

USDA/ERS

USDAOutlookForum

February

21,

2014

Washington,

DC


2/22

China

Leads

World

Cotton

Markets

Source: ERScalculationsbasedondatafromPS&DOnline


3/22

TheProblemforChina

Source: ERScalculationsbasedondatafromPS&DOnline,CottonOutlook,BeijingCottonOutlook.andIMF.


4/22

TheProblemfortheWorld

Source: ERScalculationsbasedondatafromUSDA/ERS,StatisticsonCotton:19201973,PS&DOnline,andUSDAestimates.


5/22

ChinasCottonPolicyShift

March2011:

Chinaannounceditstemporarystatereserve

programforcotton Committedtopurchasedomesticcottonfiberduring

SeptemberMarchwheneverpricesfellbelow

published

reference

price Similarsupportpricespreviouslyintroducedforrice

(2004),wheat(2005),andcorn(2007)

Grainsalsoreceiveddirectsubsidies,inputsubsidies,

andbenefitedfrommechanizationsubsidies.

5


6/22

CottonPrices,201113

Chinasreferenceprice:

RMB/ton 19,800 20,400

USD/ton 3,100 3,360

cents/lb 141 153

Worldprice:cents/lb 81 111

Chinawentfroma25%pricepremiumcomparedwithrestofworldtoa60%premium

6


7/22

PolicyAffectingCottonIndirectlyEconomicPolicy:

ExchangeratesEnvironmentalregulations

MonetarypolicyAccesstofundsforinvestmentRateofgrowthinChinasdomesticeconomy

Textiletradepolicy

Import

restrictionsExportVATrebates

AgriculturalPolicy:Ruralinfrastructureandsocialwelfare

Support

for

alternative

cropsRisingminimumpricesforgrainsDirectsubsidiesandinputsubsidiesforgrains

7


8/22

PolicyDirectlyAffectingCotton

Supplementalpolicies:

Subsidiesforusingsuperiorplantingseeds

SubsidiesfortransportationofcottonfromXinjiang

Subsidizedcreditforpurchasingduringharvest

accesstocreditconditionaloncottonpriceguidelines

Fiberinspectionservices

Gincertification

Agriculturalresearch,marketinformation

8


9/22

PolicyDirectlyAffectingCotton

Macrocontrol

Marketintervention:changesingovernmentownedstocksofcottontoinfluenceprices

Tradepolicy:annualchangesintheavailabilityofimportquotasatpreferentialtariffs;lessfrequentchangesindeterminationofaslidingscaletariffthathasappliedtotheseimportssince2005.

ThisissimilartoChinaspolicyforotheragriculturalcommodities.

Thecrucialchangein2011wasthepreseason

announcementoftheinterventionprice,anditshighlevel.

9


10/22

ReserveActivity: 200413Largenetsales: 2009,2010Largenetpurchases: 2008,201113

10


11/22

CottonImports ByCategory

Policy:e.g.importsbyChinaNationalCotton

Reserves

Corporation

(CNCRC)Other:importedatfull40%WTOboundtariff

Sources: USDAattache reports,industryreports,andUSDAcalculations.

11


12/22

GuidelinesforNewPolicy: GoalsToplevel(strategic)

Maintainsomecapacityfordomesticcottonproduction

Augmentthewellbeingofruralresidentsandcompanies

EnsuretheeconomicstabilityofXinjiang

ReturnagreatershareofChinascottonspinningsectortoprofitability

Secondtier(process)Reducereservestockstoanoptimallevel

Limitfrictionwithtradingpartnersandcompetitors

Efficient

use

of

resources

while

implementing

policyLimitthemonetarylossesassociatedwithreservemanagement

12


13/22

OutlineofNewPolicy

Chinaspolicymakersacknowledgecurrentpolicyis

unsustainable

Changesin2014willbestepstowards:

Lessdistortionaryproducersupport

Lessgenerousproducersupport

SignificantlymoresupportforXinjiangthanelsewhereReservestocksrisingtrendreversing

Changesin2014willnotbedramatic:

GradualismandexperimentationhavebeenhallmarkofChinasreformoverlast40years

13


14/22

ProductionPolicyin2014XinjiangUighurAutonomousRegion

pilotprogramoftargetpricebaseddirectsubsidies

targetpricereportedlyabout19,500RMB/ton

5percentbelow2013referenceprice

Otherprovinces(YellowandYangtzeRivergrowingareas)

excludedfrompilotprogram

harvestpricewillbedeterminedbyinteractionofmarketforcesandreservemanagement

indicationsthatfarmersexpect15,000RMB/ton

25percentbelow2013referenceprice

14


15/22

ImportPolicyin2014

Slidingscalequota(SSQ)

quotalevelclosetobutabove200513minimumof3

million

bales

(third

consecutive

annual

decline)SSQtariffslittlechanged

Policyimports

little

expected

in

2013

or

2014,

compared

with

more

than3millionbalesannuallyin2011and2012

Otherimports

TRQlevelunchanged(894,000tonsat1%tariff)

outofquotatariffremainsat40%

noadditionalimpedimentstooutofquotaimports

15


16/22

ReserveManagementPolicyin2014

Reservepurchaseswilloccurduringharvest

Declineinreservesalespriceswillcontinue

2012price=19,300RMB/ton

2013price=18,300RMB/tontodate

review

is

expected

after

March2014priceforeseennear15,000RMB/ton

USDAexpects80cent/lb worldprice

17,000RMB=40%tariffpaidequivalent

13,000RMB=typicaldomesticequivalentbefore2011

16


17/22

Policy

makers

Are

Constrained Pursuingsomepolicygoalsprecludes

achievingothers

Scenario:

Goals: reducestocksatminimalcost

Policies:highreservesalepriceandlowimport

quotas

Result:largereductioninimportquotadrives

worldpricedown;Chinaconsumptiondeclines,

fulltariffimportsrise,andstockchangeslimited

17


18/22

Full

tariff

Imports

Rise

With:FallingWorldPriceorRisingReserveSalesPrice

Fulltariffimports 1millionbalesin2013Source:ERSsimulationsbasedondatafromChinaCustoms,CottonOutlook,BeijingCottonOutlook,International

MonetaryFund,andUSDAestimates


19/22

China

Consumption

Falls

With:FallingChinaimportsandFixedReserveSalesPrice

Endingstockslittlechangedasfallingconsumptioncanoffsetlowerimports

19

Source: ERScalculationsbasedondatafromPS&DOnline,CottonOutlook,andBeijingCottonOutlook.


20/22

Endingstockchangeswillvarywith

importsandreservesaleprices.

Reservesalepricereductionspotentiallycostly

20

Source:ERSsimulationsbasedondatafromChinaCustoms,CottonOutlook,BeijingCottonOutlook,International

MonetaryFund,PS&DOnline,andUSDAestimates


21/22

Policy

Choices

for

China

in

2014 Tradeoffsbetweentextileindustryand

farmers

Tradeoffsbetweenfinanciallossonreserve

salesandpersistenceofhighstocks

Trade

offs

between

reducing

stocks

by

constrainingimportsorreducingreservesale

prices

Howtoapplyexperiencetoinevitablefurther

changesinfutureyears

21


22/22

Contributionstotheinsightsandinformationinthis

presentationhavecomefrom:HunterColby(USDA/WAOB),

FredGale(USDA/ERS),JamesJohnson (USDA/FAS),Leslie

Meyer(USDA/ERS),IgnacioPerez(OECD/TAD),CarolSkelly(USDA/WAOB),RalphSeeley(USDA/ERS).

Acknowledgements:

Formoreinformationoncotton:

EconomicResearchService

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton wool.aspx

ForeignAgriculturalService

http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/cotton

FormoreinformationonChina:

EconomicResearchService

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/internationalmarketstrade/countries

regions/china.aspx

22

información china algodón.pdf

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