escenarios, juegos y estrategias - garcia bogota 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Escenarios, Juegos y
Estrategias
Modelos participativso y manejo multi-actores de
recursos naturales
Claudio Garcia
FORDEV
FORDEV
Karbi Anglong
TiCoYa
Juegos
• The purpose of scenario
planning is not to pinpoint
future events but to
highlight large-scale
forces that push the future
in different directions.
• It's about making these
forces visible
• It's about helping make
better decisions today.
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
Que trayectoria?
Quién elige?
Que techo? Para la seguridad de quién?
Quién gana?
Quién pierde?
Que objetivos?
Resiliencia de
qué? Para
quién?
1 2
3
December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 14
Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Landscape Trends
December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 16
Stand dynamics
Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Reducing
canopy
Replacing
by
G. robusta
Tree
ownership
rights
Implementation
of public policies Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling
Timber Rights
Cheynier 2006
Timber Rights
“While conferring ownership rights […] right over the
tree growth may be excluded. As otherwise, it is
apprehended that in 10 years time the entire tree
growth is likely to disappear.”
- G.K. Lokare, Secy. to Govt., Revenue Dept., 22/9/99
ComMod: Objectives
1rst : to improve knowledge / understanding
2nd : to support collective decision-making
processes
Through Modeling
WCA 2014 – Delhi 25
Coffee
owner
InputIrrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
Market Forest Dpt
Timber
merchant
sells
sell
buys
buys
enforces policies
Conceptual Model
Role Playing Game
Grevillea robusta
FermePoivre Force de travail
Irrigation
IntrantsPerche
Régénération naturelle
Arbre élagué
Junglewood
Caféier10 cm
Scenarios
• No Tree Rights
– Difficult to sale Jungle Wood on the legal
market
– No restrictions on Silver Oak
• Tree Rights
– No restrictions on Jungle Wood as well as
on Silver Oak
December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 28
Result - Livelihood
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5
Farm
er'
sIn
co
me
(in
CIN
C)
Game Turns
Average Income: Coffee + Pepper + Timber
No TreeRights
Tree Rights
Result – Tree cover
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tree Rights
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5
No Tree Rights
Trees Saplings Seedlings
Result - Biodiversity
0%
50%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5
No Tree Rights
0%
50%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tree Rights
Jungle Wood Silver Oak
Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Opening
the canopy
Planting
G. robusta
Tree
ownership
rights
Implementation
of public policies Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling
Tree
Ownership
rights
Certification
GI
PES
1
3
2
Multi-Agent Universe
Information Action
5
Coffee
owner
InputIrrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
Market Forest Dpt
Timber
merchant
sells
sell
buys
buys
enforces policies
Conceptual model
Stupid agent Applet
Conceptual model
AAR
Outcome?
SCENARIOS
++ + + -LIVELIHOODS
- + - - -CULTURAL IDENTITY
+ ++ - ++BIODIVERSITY
S1 S2 S3 S4
AAR
Landscape Trends
http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/
https://www.facebook.com/fordev.eth
Sígannos!