Download - Jorge Beinstein
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Jorge BeinsteinJorge Beinstein
2013
ProspectivaProspectiva
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Temario
1, Prospectiva, primera aproximación 2, Esquema metodológico general
3, Métodos
4, Áreas de aplicación
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1, Primera aproximación 1, Primera aproximación a la disciplina a la disciplina prospectivaprospectiva
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futurología
previsión
prospectiva
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FuturologíaFuturología
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FuturologíaFuturología
Consultas a expertosConsultas a expertos
Modelos de simulación
Futuro único
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Club de RomaClub de Roma
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Club de Roma (1972-2000): pronósticos y realidad
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simulación online del World3-Club de Romahttp://bit-player.org/extras/limits/ltg.html
Modelo de simulación - World3
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Teoría de OlduvaiTeoría de Olduvai
Richard Duncan
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Teoría de Olduvai Teoría de Olduvai moda spengleriana en la elite militar y de seguridad en general de los Estados Unidos
¿solo la Edad de Piedra es posible con menor ¿solo la Edad de Piedra es posible con menor (mucho menor) consumo energético ?(mucho menor) consumo energético ?
La construcción de escenarios alternativos La construcción de escenarios alternativos podría mostrar un abanico de caminos podría mostrar un abanico de caminos diferentes y civilizados todos ellos con menor diferentes y civilizados todos ellos con menor consumo energético sin excluir escenarios de consumo energético sin excluir escenarios de barbarie (todos ellos posibles)barbarie (todos ellos posibles)
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PrevisiónPrevisión
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complementosfuturológicos
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PASADOPRESENTE
FUTURO
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Un pronóstico-previsión acertado: Un pronóstico-previsión acertado: el “peak el “peak oiloil””
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Precio del petróleo
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Previsión insuficiente:Previsión insuficiente:
el precio del oro
Necesidad de una evaluación prospectivaNecesidad de una evaluación prospectiva
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16001600
Julio 2011
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Caída del precio del oro durante 2013
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Algunos actores decisivosAlgunos actores decisivos- Gobierno chino- Gobierno ruso- Reserva Federal-Gob. USA - Banco Central Europeo- Especuladores financieros globales- Principales bancos globales- Gobiernos de Alemania, Francia. e Inglaterra- Gob. de Japón
Algunas variables decisivasAlgunas variables decisivas
- Índice del dólar y del euro- Cotización del oro- Extracción anual global de oro- Evolución del Dow Jones- Desdolarización del comercio global- Pronósticos del crecimiento del Producto Bruto Global, USA y UE- Cotización del barril de petróleo y de otras grandes commodities (alimentarias, mineras)
Algunos fenómenos decisivosAlgunos fenómenos decisivos
- Crisis de la zona euro- Probable crisis alimentaria global- Probable crisis energética global- Clima bélico en Medio oriente-Crisis financiera en los Estados Unidos
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ProspectivaProspectiva
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VariablesVariables
FenómenosFenómenoscomplejoscomplejos
ActoresActores
ESCENARIOSESCENARIOS
PROSPECTIVAPROSPECTIVA
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CICLOSCICLOS
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KitchinKitchin
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JuglarJuglar
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JuglarJuglar
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Crisis de crecimiento-adaptaciónCrisis de crecimiento-adaptación
Crisis del neoliberalismoCrisis del neoliberalismo
Crisis sistémicaCrisis sistémica
Crisis de sobreproducciónCrisis de sobreproducción
Crisis de civilización / crisis Crisis de civilización / crisis general de subproducción / general de subproducción / decadenciadecadencia
Crisis cíclicaCrisis cíclica
Teoría/s de la crisisTeoría/s de la crisis
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Hipersensibilidad a condiciones iniciales – Teoría del caosHipersensibilidad a condiciones iniciales – Teoría del caos
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Esquema Esquema metodológicometodológico
general general
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MétodosMétodos
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MODELOS Y MODELOS Y EXTRAPOLACIONES EXTRAPOLACIONES SIMPLESSIMPLES
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Curva de Mansfield ----- innovación en el seno de una empresa
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TRATAMIENTO TRATAMIENTO DE DE
SERIESSERIESTEMPORALESTEMPORALES
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Regresiones
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AA
BB
CC juegos juegos de de actoresactores
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Descripción de Descripción de técnicas técnicas
en el proceso de en el proceso de construcción de construcción de
escenariosescenarios
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VariablesVariables
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V= variableA= actor
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LOCAL CONSUMPTION
REGIONAL TRADE
EXPORT MARKET
PRE-HARVEST
POST-HARVEST : DRYING-CLEANING-STORAGEMILLING
HUMANFOOD
BY-PRODUCTS
ANIMALFEEDING
DERIVED FOODSTUFFmeat, milk, eggs...
SOCIO ECONOMIC & TECHNICAL CONTEXTFarmers
SMEs &Cooperatives
SMEs &cooperatives
Traders
Multinational groups
Diagram of whole cereal chainDiagram of whole cereal chain
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Système Sucre
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Curva SCurvas de crecimientoPronósticos de nuevos productosCurvas de difusiónCurvas de contagio
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MODELOS Y MODELOS Y EXTRAPOLACIONES EXTRAPOLACIONES SIMPLESSIMPLES
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(1906)
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Velocidad de avionesVelocidad de aviones
fenómeno líder
fenómeno fenómeno dependientedependiente
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Curva de Mansfield ----- innovación en el seno de una empresa
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Evolución del peso de una vaca durante 232 semanas a razón de una observación cada dos semanas (total= 116 observaciones)
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Ajuste con curva logística
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Innovación de producto en un mercado limitado (en un horizonte temporal dado)
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Curva en S envolventeCurva en S envolvente
Velocidad aéreaVelocidad aérea
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Tratamiento de series Tratamiento de series temporalestemporales
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Forecasting: principles and practiceJ Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos
http://otexts.com/fpp/
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Estacionalidades --- ciclosEstacionalidades --- ciclos
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Regresión MúltipleRegresión Múltiple
Variable dependiente:Venta de casas nuevas en los EE.UU
Variables independientes::Ingreso personal disponible per cápitaTasas de interés hipotecaria
D = αX1+βX2
(D)
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AA
BB
CC juegos juegos de de actoresactores
variablesvariables
variablesvariables
variablesvariables
variablesvariables
variablesvariables
variablesvariables
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Modelos de simulación
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Procesos de MarkovProcesos de Markov
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Ejemplos, aplicación del soft Management ScientistEjemplos, aplicación del soft Management Scientist
1
1
2
3
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Árbol de pertinenciaÁrbol de pertinencia
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Construcción y Construcción y jerarquización de escenariosjerarquización de escenarios
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Interrogantes estratégicos Interrogantes estratégicos acerca del futuro del acerca del futuro del
sistemasistema
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Consultas a Consultas a expertosexpertos
DelphiDelphi
BrainstormingBrainstorming
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DelphiDelphi
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METODO MORFOLOGICO
SISTEMASISTEMA
Interrogantes estratégicos Interrogantes estratégicos acerca del futuro del sistemaacerca del futuro del sistema
Respuestas a los Respuestas a los interrogantesinterrogantes
Espacio morfológico (conjunto de respuestas)
Selección de paquetes alternativos de respuetas
Tratamiento de series temporalesCurvas SKSIMAnalogías históricas y otrasConsulta a expertos (Delphi, etc.)
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∑ ci = 10 con i= 1,2,3
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VE1=c1*E11+c2*E12+c3*E13
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Áreas de aplicaciónÁreas de aplicación
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PROSPECTIVAPROSPECTIVA
CRISIS CRISIS GLOBALGLOBAL
PLANEAMIENTO PLANEAMIENTO ESTRATÉGICOESTRATÉGICO
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El futuro del El futuro del sector sector
automotriz en el automotriz en el mundo (2025)mundo (2025)
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Esquema general de actividades
Descripción del subsistema Sector automotriz-contexto global
Detección y descripción de actores, variables y fenómenos significativos
Retrospectiva
Elaboración de interrogantes estratégicos sobre el futuro del subsitema -horizonte 2025 Respuestas
Elaboración de núcleos coherentes de respuestas
Construcción de escenarios
Jerarquización de escenarios
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Interrogantes estratégicosInterrogantes estratégicos1º: contexto macroeconómico global (evolución de la crisis)
2º: evolución de la nueva clase media global
3º: ¿explosión-bloqueo urbano?, alternativas
4º: La cuestión energética
5º: Nuevos jugadores del sector -mercados y productores (CHINA)
6º: sobrecapacidad productiva7º: nuevos vehículos según regiones, tomando en cuenta las distancias
8º: ¿saturación de mercados?
9º: nuevas regulaciones
10º: cambios en los sistemas de propulsión en relación con los motores tradicionales
11º velocidad de instalación del automóvil eléctrico puro
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Escenario A: aceleración de los cambios, salida rápida de la Escenario A: aceleración de los cambios, salida rápida de la crisis (aprox 2015) liderada por los países emergentescrisis (aprox 2015) liderada por los países emergentes
Escenario B: despegue 2015 (aprox) liderado por los Escenario B: despegue 2015 (aprox) liderado por los países de alto desarrollopaíses de alto desarrollo
Escenario C: La crisis se prolonga hasta 2020.Escenario C: La crisis se prolonga hasta 2020.Los países emergentes van imponiendo gradualmente Los países emergentes van imponiendo gradualmente su liderazgo global y la industria automotriz se su liderazgo global y la industria automotriz se transforma enfrentando un mercado complejotransforma enfrentando un mercado complejo
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El contexto global de la El contexto global de la economía argentina.economía argentina.Horizonte 2010Horizonte 2010(estudio prospectivo realizado en 2007 para el Ministerio de (estudio prospectivo realizado en 2007 para el Ministerio de Economía de Argentina)Economía de Argentina)
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MetodologíaMetodología
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