London
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Shanghai
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Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Domestic and international markets for East Med gasLebanon International Oil and Gas SummitBeirut
Matt Drinkwater9 May 2017
• Domestic markets
• Regional markets
• International markets
Introduction
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Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Domestic markets
Fuel switching could result in considerable savings
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2014 2016
bn
USD
Notional Lebanese power generation fuel purchase costs
Oil products LNG
Algeria has used its gas resources to drive economic development
Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
bn
m³
Algerian gas demand
Pipeline exports Liquefaction Power-sector gas burn Industrial gas consumption
Algeria has used its gas resources to drive economic development
Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
bn
m³
Algerian gas supply-demand balance
Pipeline exports Liquefaction Power-sector gas burn
Industrial gas consumption Commercial gas production Total exports
Egypt has also built a large gas-based industrial sector
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017
bn
m³
Egyptian gas demand balance
Exports Power sector Non-power consumption
Egypt has also built a large gas-based industrial sector
Copyright © 2017 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017
bn
m³
Egyptian gas supply-demand balance
Exports Power sector Non-power consumption Production + Imports Production
Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Regional markets
Egypt returning to self-sufficiency – and eyeing hub role
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BP’s projected equity Egyptian gas production growth
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Name Production Date
Zohr1bn ft/d End 2017/early 2018
2.4bn ft/d End of 2019
Atoll 300mn ft/d End of December 2017
West Nile Delta1.2bn ft/d Spring 2017
Phase 2 TBA
Nooros700mn ft/d End of 2016
880mn ft/d Early 2018
Egyptian gas production set to rise quickly
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• Plus Israeli gas imports once arbitration/pipeline dispute resolved?
Israeli and Cypriot gas looking for export routes
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Export routes under consideration by Leviathan partners
Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
International markets
The world gas market is highly cyclical
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0.0000
2.0000
4.0000
6.0000
8.0000
10.0000
12.0000
14.0000
16.0000
18.0000
20.0000
Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
$/m
n B
tu
Key international gas prices
NBP Henry Hub Japan average import price
Third wave of LNG capacity expansion is underway
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan 72 Jan 75 Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 20
t/yr
LNG liquefaction capacity, cumulative
Brunei UAE Indonesia Malaysia
Australia Qatar Trinidad and Tobago Nigeria
Oman Equatorial Guinea Norway Russia
…but demand from new importers has grown strongly
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-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17
m³
LNG
Egypt Jordan Pakistan
…and price-sensitive importers are buying more
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-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17
m³
LNG
Turkey China India
Only half of current Chinese regas capacity is utilised
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TERMINAL CAP (MN T) STATUS EXPANSION OWNERS
Dalian 6 In use PetroChina, Dalian Port, Dalian Construction
Guangdong Dapeng, Shenzhen 6.7 In use 2.3 GDLNG (CNOOC, BP, local Chinese firms)
Fujian 5.2 In use 3 Fujian LNG (CNOOC, Fujian Investment Dev Corp)
Jiangsu Rudong LNG 6.5 In use PetroChina via its 50.74% share in Kunlun Energy, Pacific Oil & Gas, Jiangsu Guoxin
Shanghai LNG 3 In use Shanghai LNG (CNOOC, Shenergy Group)
Zhejiang Ningbo 3 In use CNOOC, Zhejiang Energy Group, Ningbo Power Development
Tianjin FLNG 2.2 In use 6 CNOOC, Tianjin Port Group, Tianjin Gas Group
Zhuhai 3.5 In use CNOOC, Guangdong Yudean Group, state governments
Tangshan, Hebei 3.5 In use PetroChina, Beijing Enterprises Holdings, Hebei Provincial Construction & Investment Co.
Hainan Island 3 In use CNOOC, Hainan Development Holdings
Shandong, Qingdao 3 In use 3.5 Sinopec, Shandong state firms
Dongguan, Shenzhen 1 In use Jovo
Beihai, Guangxi 3 In use Sinopec, Guangxi state firms
Jieyang (Yuedong) LNG 2 Early 2017 CNOOC, Guangdong Yudean Group
Diefu, Shenzhen 4 2017 CNOOC, Shenzhen Energy
Tianjin 3 2016 7 Sinopec
Zhoushan 3 2018 ENN
TOTAL 61.6
India to treble regas capacity
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TERMINAL CAP (MN T) STATUS EXPANSION OWNERS COAST COMMENT
Dahej 15 In use 2.5 Petronet LNG west
Kochi 5 Commissioned Petronet LNG westPipeline pending
Dabhol 5 In use Gail/NTPC westBreakwater
pending
Hazira 5 In use 2.5 Shell/Total west
Mundra 5 2017 Adani/GSPC west
Ennore 5 2019 IOC east
Gujarat 5 2019Swan
Energy/Exmar west FSRU
Dhamra 5 2020 Adani/IOC/Gail east
Kakinada 4 Plan KGLNG FSRU
Gangavaram 5 Shelved Petronet LNG east
Kakinada 1.75 Plan GMR east FSRU
Kakinada 5 2018-19 GAIL/Shell east FSRU
Kakinada 5 2018-19KEI-RSOS
Petroleum east FSRU
Andaman 0.5 Plan Petronet LNG south FSRU
Gujarat 5 2019HPCL/Shapoorji
Pallonji west
Jaigarh 4 2018 H-Energy west FSRU
West Bengal 3 2019 H-Energy east FSRU
TOTAL 83.25
Countries Number of projects Capacity
Pakistan Three additional 16mn t/yr
Bangladesh Three 12mn t/yr
India Four-eight 18-36mn t/yr
Ghana Two 9mn t/yr
Ivory Coast One 3mn t/yr
Chile One 5.5mn t/yr
Uruguay One 5mn t/yr
Colombia One 3mn t/yr
More…
We count over 30 proposed FSRU projects
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Matt DrinkwaterSenior Editor – Gas, power and LNG
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