(A) ¿Podemos ya observar un cambio del clima?(B) ¿Cómo va cambiar el clima en el futuro?(C) ¿Cómo responden los ecosistemas?
(A) Observar cambio climáticoMetodología
• Selección de datos• Detectar y ajustar tendencias artificiales• Control de calidad• Calcular 27 índices• Test de significancia• Buscar patrones geográficos
Many trends contained in the original data are artificial. Source for such artificial trends include a change in measurement instruments, changing measurement location, construction nearby measuring site etc. Change points are detected and original data is adjusted accordingly.
(A) Observar cambio climáticoÍndices y patrones geográficos
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Example of a climate change indice: Warm days = Days when maximum temperature is above 90% of yearly maximum values “+” = significant increase “-” = significant decrease “o” = no significant changes Graph shows mean number of warm days for all stations marked with “+”. We are detecting climate change! Bolivia is divided in lowlands, Andean slopes and Altiplano.
(A) Observar cambio climáticoÍndices y patrones geográficos
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Other example: Total annual precipitation. Challenging pattern! Increase and decrease among same in different parts of Bolivia. Graphs show increasing precipitation (%) compared to the mean. Graph above uses data from all stations marked with “+” Graph above uses data from all stations marked with “-”
(A) Observar cambio climáticoResultado temperatura
Cambios significativos:• Tierras bajas y Andes
– Más noches calientes• Solo Andes
– Más días calientes– Incremento de temperaturas máximas– Más olas de calor– Incremento de rango de temperatura diaria
Taylor diagram: We compare … * Root mean square error * Correlation * Standard deviation … of every GCM with observational data (1961-1990) What do the axis and arcs mean? x - axis = standard deviation y – axis = standard deviation blue arcs = standard deviation dotted lines = correlation coefficient Grey arcs = root mean square error Where is my observation? Along the x-axis marked with a “o” between 50 and 150. Which is the best GCM? The closer the GCM to the “o” of the observation the better. The closer the point to the black arc marking the standard deviation of the observed data, the better. Best model is “I” = INCM3. However, later we check if errors are systematic or arbitrary. We prefer arbitrary errors and after a long analysis we finally get to: IPCM4. Since IPCM4 data is not available (1 missing variable) we choose ECHAM5 (=“L” = MPEH5 = ECHAM5), which is also OK. Good thing about ECHAM5: very high spatial resolution.
(B) Modelar cambio climáticoValidación de GCMs (1961-1990): Análisis de error
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Are errors systematic or arbitrary? Example (3) HADCM3: Very good model in Taylor diagram but it is too wet. Example (2) GFCM20 nice arbitrary error.
(B) Modelar cambio climático Validación de GCMs (1961-1990): Estacionalidad
(B) Modelar cambio climático Consenso entre GCMs: decremento de precipitación
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Left: Temperature Right: Precipitation Temperature: Grid: mean change form all GCMs (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes in monthly maximum temperatures Stronger increase in Altiplano and NE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends! Precipitation: Grid: consensus of all models on direction of change of annual precipitation (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes of annual total precipitation Models agree on more rain in NW lowlands and less rain in SW Andes and SE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends only in NW lowlands
(B) Modelar cambio climático Consenso entre GCMs: decremento de precipitación
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Left: Temperature Right: Precipitation Temperature: Grid: mean change form all GCMs (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes in monthly maximum temperatures Stronger increase in Altiplano and NE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends! Precipitation: Grid: consensus of all models on direction of change of annual precipitation (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes of annual total precipitation Models agree on more rain in NW lowlands and less rain in SW Andes and SE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends only in NW lowlands
Salidas de modelos climáticos globales:• Temperatura• Humedad• Viento• Geopotencial
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VERY IMPORTANT!!! Question: Will precipitation increase or decrease in Bolivia? Answer: Ask all GCMs and see if they agree on a trend. What do the numbers and colors mean? BLUE = 75% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation RED = 25% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation , thus 75% of all GCMs agree on decreasing precipitation. Conclusions: (1) There is a GCM consensus that precipitation will: Increase in NW lowlands Decrease in SW Andes Decrease in SE lowlands. (2) Overall there is very little model consensus! PS: I neglect the possibility that models show no significant change. I will do this later.
VERY IMPORTANT!!! Question: Will precipitation increase or decrease in Bolivia? Answer: Ask all GCMs and see if they agree on a trend. What do the numbers and colors mean? BLUE = 75% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation RED = 25% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation , thus 75% of all GCMs agree on decreasing precipitation. Conclusions: (1) There is a GCM consensus that precipitation will: Increase in NW lowlands Decrease in SW Andes Decrease in SE lowlands. (2) Overall there is very little model consensus! PS: I neglect the possibility that models show no significant change. I will do this later.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
VERY IMPORTANT!!! Question: Will precipitation increase or decrease in Bolivia? Answer: Ask all GCMs and see if they agree on a trend. What do the numbers and colors mean? BLUE = 75% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation RED = 25% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation , thus 75% of all GCMs agree on decreasing precipitation. Conclusions: (1) There is a GCM consensus that precipitation will: Increase in NW lowlands Decrease in SW Andes Decrease in SE lowlands. (2) Overall there is very little model consensus! PS: I neglect the possibility that models show no significant change. I will do this later.
(B) Modelar cambio climáticoEscenarios regionales
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Left: Temperature Right: Precipitation Temperature: Grid: mean change form all GCMs (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes in monthly maximum temperatures Stronger increase in Altiplano and NE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends! Precipitation: Grid: consensus of all models on direction of change of annual precipitation (1990 to 2100, SRES A2) “+”, “-”, “o” = significant changes of annual total precipitation Models agree on more rain in NW lowlands and less rain in SW Andes and SE lowlands Consensus among GCMs and detected trends only in NW lowlands
(B) EcosistemasVinculación entre modelo climático y ecosistemico
Modelo Climático Global(ECHAM4, ECHAM5)
Modelo Climático Regional(PRECIS, BRAMS)
Modelo de impacto(LPJ-GUESS)
Escenario de Emisión(A2, B2)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
VERY IMPORTANT!!! Question: Will precipitation increase or decrease in Bolivia? Answer: Ask all GCMs and see if they agree on a trend. What do the numbers and colors mean? BLUE = 75% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation RED = 25% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation , thus 75% of all GCMs agree on decreasing precipitation. Conclusions: (1) There is a GCM consensus that precipitation will: Increase in NW lowlands Decrease in SW Andes Decrease in SE lowlands. (2) Overall there is very little model consensus! PS: I neglect the possibility that models show no significant change. I will do this later.
(B) EcosistemasMotivación
¿Qué significa el cambio climático para los ecosistemas?
– Biogeoquímica– Biogeografía– Incendios
Cox et al., 2004
(B) EcosistemasModelo LPJ-GUESS
• Insumos:– Radiación solar– Temperatura– Precipitación– Textura de suelos
• Salidas:– Biomasa– Evapotranspiración– Escorrentía– Estructura de ecosistemas– Incendios
Presenter
Presentation Notes
We investigate the sensitivity of Bolivia's C-cycle to CC by running an ecosystem model with the outputs of a climate model We have programmed the interface between both models. Image: First test run Good: little carbon in highlands, lots of carbon in lowlands. Bad: We would expect a NS carbon gradient with decreasing biomass with decreasing latitude. also, too little carbon in N Bolivia Reason for bad performance: Test data for a single year. Current work: Biomass measurements in missing locations including savannahs. Future work: Regionalisation of parameter values Runs from 1960-2100.
(B) EcosistemasLPJ-GUESS (simplificado)
Clima, textura suelo, latitud, altitud, CO2
GPP, NPP
Asignación C: hojas, raíces madera
Conversión materia viva muerto
Descomposición
Mortalidad (por ejemplo incendios)
Establecimiento
Presenter
Presentation Notes
VERY IMPORTANT!!! Question: Will precipitation increase or decrease in Bolivia? Answer: Ask all GCMs and see if they agree on a trend. What do the numbers and colors mean? BLUE = 75% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation RED = 25% of all GCMs agree on increasing precipitation , thus 75% of all GCMs agree on decreasing precipitation. Conclusions: (1) There is a GCM consensus that precipitation will: Increase in NW lowlands Decrease in SW Andes Decrease in SE lowlands. (2) Overall there is very little model consensus! PS: I neglect the possibility that models show no significant change. I will do this later.
(B) EcosistemasModelo LPJ-GUESS: incendios
Presenter
Presentation Notes
We investigate the sensitivity of Bolivia's C-cycle to CC by running an ecosystem model with the outputs of a climate model We have programmed the interface between both models. Image: First test run Good: little carbon in highlands, lots of carbon in lowlands. Bad: We would expect a NS carbon gradient with decreasing biomass with decreasing latitude. also, too little carbon in N Bolivia Reason for bad performance: Test data for a single year. Current work: Biomass measurements in missing locations including savannahs. Future work: Regionalisation of parameter values Runs from 1960-2100.
Conclusions
(A) ¿Podemos observar el cambio climático?– Cambios significativos de prec. y temp. detectadas
(B) ¿Cómo va a cambiar el clima?– Tierras bajas: menos lluvia en época seca– Altiplano: menos lluvia en época de lluvia– No hay consenso en precipitación anual
(C) ¿Cómo responden los ecosistemas?– Análisis de impacto a:
• Biogeoquímica, Biogeografía, Incendios
¡Muchas gracias por su atención!www.fan-bo.org y www.ess.wur.nl
