bilbao 2016 - shaiowio5.shaio.es/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/09/... · por fabio monsalve,...

V Workshop de Análisis

Input-Output

5th

Spanish Workshop on

Input-Output Analysis

29-30 septiembre / 29th – 30th September

Bilbao 2016

INFORMACIÓN PRÁCTICA

Todas las sesiones se celebrarán en el salón de grados del edificio

Zubiria Etxea, en el parque de Sarriko, junto a la la Facultad de

Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales de la Universidad del País

Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre, 81, 48015 Bilbao.

WIFI

Red/SSID: EHU-wGuest

Usuario: WSHAIO

Contraseña: ehu2016BC3

CENA

La cena tendrá lugar en el restaurante:

Kafe Kovac

c/ Buenos Aires 1, 48001 Bilbao

USEFUL INFORMATION

All sessions of the workshop will be in the Degree Hall of building

Zubiria Etxea, Sarriko park, next to School of Economics and

Bussines of University of the Basque Country, Av. Lehendakari

Aguirre, 81, 48015 Bilbao.

WIFI

Network/SSID: EHU-wGuest / eduroam

User: WSHAIO

Password: ehu2016BC3

DINNER

The dinner will take place in:

Kafe Kovac

1st, Buenos Aires st. 48001 Bilbao

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Iñaki Arto (coordinador), Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Ignacio Cazcarro, Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) Mavi Román, Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Alberto Ansuategi, Universidad del País Vasco (UPV-EHU)

Marta Escapa, Universidad del País Vasco (UPV-EHU)

Ainhoa Azkarate, Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

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Índice/Table of Contents

Programma/Programme .................................................................................................................................... 4 Libro de Resúmenes/Book of Abstracts ........................................................................................................ 8 Lista de Autores/Listo f Authors ................................................................................................................... 24

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Programa resumido/Summary Programme

Hora/Time Jue/Thu, 29/Sep/2016 Vie/Fri, 30/Sep/2016

09:30 - 10:00 Asamblea SHAIO

Assembly

10:00 - 10:30

Sesión 3/Session 3 10:30 - 11:00

11:00 - 11:40

11:40 - 12:00 Pausa-café/Coffe-break

12:00 - 12:30

12:30 - 13:00

Sesión 4/Session 4

13:00 - 13:40

13:40 - 14:00 Registro/Registration

14:00 - 14:20 Inauguración/Opening Clausura/Closing

14:20 - 15:00

Sesión 1/Session 1

15:00 - 15:30

15:30 - 16:00

16:00 - 16:30 Pausa-cafe/Coffe-break

16:30 - 17:00

Sesión 2/Session 2

17:00 - 17:30

17:30 - 18:10

18:10 - 18:30

Conferencia Invitada

18:30 - 19:00

Keynote

19:00 - 19:30

19:30 - 20:00

20:00 - 20:30

20:30 - 21:00

21:00 - 21:30

21:30 - 22:00

Cena/Dinner

22:00 - 22:30

22:30 - 23:00

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Plan de Sesiones/Session Plan Jue, 29/Sep/2016 13:40 - 14:00 Registro/Registration

Sala/Room: Zubiria Etxea, Hall

14:00 - 14:20 Inaguguración/Opening

Sala/Room: Zubiria Etxea, Salón de Grados

14:20 - 16:00 Sesión 1/Session 1

- Sala/Room: Zubiria Etxea, Salón de Grados Moderador: Iñaki Arto

1. A Generalized Cross Entropy formulation for matrix balancing with both positive and negative entries

por Esteban Fernandez Vazquez

2. The SUT-EURO and the SUT-RAS methods: extensions and fair comparisons

por Jose Manuel Rueda Cantuche, Joerg Beutel, Elena Olmedo, Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo

3. Methodology to estimate PYP EU/EA SUTs under ESA2010 consistent with PYP National Accounts main

aggregates por Antonio F. Amores, Joao F. D. Rodrigues, Jose Manuel Rueda Cantuche, Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo

4. Power method applied to supply and use tables

por Xesús Pereira López, André Carrascal Incera, Melchor Fernandez Fernandez

5. Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis

por Umed Temurshoev

16:00 - 16:30 Pausa-cafe/Coffe-break



• Sala/Room: Zubiria Etxea, Salón de Grados Moderador: Iñaki Arto

1. Is the Emperor naked? Tracking the social sustainability of EU 2007-2013 Financial Framework

por Fabio Monsalve, Jorge Enrique Zafrilla Rodríguez, María Ángeles Cadarso Vecina

2. Análisis ex-post de los efectos macroeconómicos del comercio en América del Norte entre 1995 y 2009

por Maria Victoria Román de Lara, Iñaki Arto

3. Impacto Económico de la Renta Social Básica. Cantabria 2011-2015

por Cristina Ruiz del Río, María Isabel Cobo Fernández, Angela Gonzalez Maldonado

4. Characterization of the Spanish Economy based upon Sector linkages: IO, SAM and FSAM Multipliers

por Henry Aray, Luis Enrique Pedauga, Agustín Antonio Velázquez Alfonso

5. A Dynamic Input-Output Model for the Mexican Economy

por Rafael César Bouchain Galicia

29/Sep/2016, 13:40 - 18:10

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18:10 - 19:30 Conferencia Invitada/Keynote


Temporal Disaggregation in Input-output Systems: Modeling Unexpected Events

por Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Andre Fernandes Tomon Avelino

21:00 - 23:00 Cena/Dinner

Sala/Room: Restaurant Kaffe Kovac

Vie, 30/Sep/2016

09:30 - 10:00 Asamblea SHAIO Assambley




1. Who drives climate change? The relevance of extreme inequality

por Guadalupe Arce González, Luis Antonio López, Alexandre Tisserant, Richard Wood

2. CO2 Diet emissions projections: Will we become greener or just older?

por María Ángeles Tobarra Gómez, Nuria Gomez Sanz

3. The environmental foodprint of EU28 and potential environmental savings through food waste

reductions

por Arkaitz Usubiaga Liaño

4. Social, economic and environmental assessment of the uses and management in Riaño reservoir (Leon,

Spain)

por Sergio Alvarez, Daniel José Rodríguez Pérez, Jorge Enrique Zafrilla Rodríguez, Fabio Monsalve, María Ángeles Tobarra Gómez, Luis Antonio López

5. Multiregional Input Output Analysis applied to an Innovative Configuration of Solar Power

Technology

por Blanca Corona Bellostas, Cristina de la Rúa

11:40 - 12:00 Pausa-café/Coffe-break


29/Sep/2016, 18:10 - 23:00 30/Sep/2016, 09:30 - 12:00

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1. Inequalities and household carbon footprints: the allocation of emissions embodied in

investment

por Mónica Serrano Gutiérrez, Jordi Roca Jusmet

2. What happens if we treat commuting as intermediate consumption?

por Luis Antonio López, Tobias Kronenberg

3. Growth, R&D expenditure and spillover effects: An input-output approach.

por Sofía Jiménez, Rosa Duarte, Julio Sánchez Chóliz

4. Análisis de descomposición estructural del consumo de energía en Chile.

por Rocío Román Colado

5. A CGE model for Spain focusing on the electricity sector

por Raquel Langarita

6. Emisiones de CO2 de la construcción en España: análisis y descomposición mediante subsistemas input-

output

por Emilio Padilla Rosa, Vicente Alcántara

14:00 - 14:15 Clausura/Closing


30/Sep/2016, 12:00 - 14:15

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Social, economic and environmental assessment of the uses and management in

Riaño reservoir (Leon, Spain) Temática: Autor/Author: Sergio Alvarez Coautores/co-authors: Daniel José Rodríguez Pérez, Jorge Enrique Zafrilla Rodríguez, Fabio

Monsalve, María Ángeles Tobarra Gómez, Luis Antonio López

El ser humano necesita un modelo de consumo más responsable y equilibrado a nivel social, económico y ambiental. Las técnicas multirregionales de análisis input-output permiten desarrollar estudios conocidos como “triple cuenta de resultados” que atienden a estas tres vertientes de análisis. España es el país con más grandes presas per cápita en el mundo existiendo una gran controversia sobre sus impactos y sostenibilidad. Este estudio analiza la sostenibilidad de la explotación y usos derivados del embalse de Riaño (León), una gran reserva de agua embalsada por una presa. Para ello cuantifica los siguientes tres indicadores: (1) huella social: medida como puestos de trabajos directo e indirecto; (2) huella económica: medida como valor añadido generado por la actividad desarrollada; y (3) huella de carbono: medida como emisiones directas e indirectas de gases de efecto invernadero. El análisis se realiza sobre datos del año 2014 en los que se incluyen los gastos de explotación de la propia presa, unidos a los principales usos derivados por el funcionamiento de ésta (agricultura en regadío y generación de electricidad). La incorporación de estos usos permite alcanzar el 80% del total de los usos derivados del embalse. La huella de carbono total de la explotación y usos en el año 2014 en estudio alcanzó 2.188 t CO2e, siendo el 48% responsabilidad de la actividad agrícola, el 45% la explotación y mantenimiento del embalse y el 7% la generación de electricidad. La actividad económica desarrollada ha generado una huella económica de cerca de 4.5 millones de euros y una huella social de 152 empleos totales, 48 de los cuales son directos. El presente estudio muestra como las técnicas de Análisis Input-Output pueden ser aplicadas para analizar el impacto social, económico y ambiental derivado de las actividades económicas.

Methodology to estimate PYP EU/EA SUTs under ESA2010 consistent with

PYP National Accounts main aggregates Autor/Author: Antonio F. Amores Coautores/co-authors: Joao F. D. Rodrigues, Jose Manuel Rueda Cantuche, Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo

A previous JRC/Eurostat project developed a new methodology of deflation of SUTs either by MS or at the EU/EA level. It is a tailor-made version of the H-approach (Mahajan, 2009; and recommended in the forthcoming UN handbook of SUIOTs), which is adapted to the Eurostat data availability. It turned out that due to the lack of good-quality and suitable deflators and a deflator aggregation bias, resulting double-deflated estimations of GVA in pyp would be biased respect the officially available ones. Therefore, we develop a method to incorporate such GVA pyp officially available as input data to refine the poor quality/suitability deflators and produce a EU PYP SUTs consistent with National Accounts main aggregates. Instead of a bi-proportional adjustment (G)RAS-like, we envisage a method that allows for controlling the flexibility of the different constraints trough assigning different reliability levels to the different input data pieces according to the quality/suitability/reliability of the different deflators.

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Characterization of the Spanish Economy based upon Sector linkages: IO,

SAM and FSAM Multipliers Autor/Author: Henry Aray Coautores/co-authors: Luis Enrique Pedauga, Agustín Antonio Velázquez Alfonso

This article goes beyond the traditional analysis of multipliers of Input-Output models by considering the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) multipliers in order to characterize the Spanish economy based upon its sector linkages. Although the SAM have extended the IO analysis of multipliers and is a very useful instrument for economic analysis and evaluation, it is an incomplete tool since that it is limited to the real economy at not including financial ties across sectors, that is, details on the financial institutions and transactions of the agents through its financial assets and liabilities. The contribution of this article is therefore to provide the FSAM multipliers for the Spanish economy and compare them with the IO and SAM multipliers. This would allow to trace better the real-financial interconnectedness of the economy. This is in line with Shrestha et al. (2012) who argued that the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have identified as one of the vulnerabilities of the last crisis, the absence of more detailed economic statistics which is due to the lack prominence that the System of National Accounts (SNA) gives to the from-whom-to-whom principle for data collection and presentation. Particularly, this weakness flourished in the afterword of the last financial crisis due to the impossibility to anticipate the imbalances between agents in the wake of the crisis which makes evident the need to understand financial interconnectedness among various sector of an economy and between them and their counterparties. The FSAM framework could be very useful in overcoming such limitations by allowing identifying which are the sectors that lend or borrow to a particular sector and which are the instruments positions respect to such sectors since that each financial transaction of a sector is mirrored by a financial transaction in other sector. Hence, this article provides a framework that captures the real-financial linkages in order to assess the strength of these linkages in the Spanish economy. Thus, we compare the multipliers and classify the economic activities based upon their linkages in each model. This allowed us to identify which are the economic activities that remain in their classification across models. We find that half of the activities (37) remain in their characterization. For the rest of the 37 economics activities, the classification change across models. We provide a detailed analysis on such behaviours. Finally, we particularly pay attention to the Financial Services Activity what allowed us to deep in the analysis of this productive sector by characterizing it in terms of their linkages. We found that the classification of this sector as a based economic activity is robust across the three models. This result somehow suggests that the financial stability can be related with the bottleneck characteristic of the financial sector which affects all the economic activities as well as the final consumption and investment in the economy. Keywords: IO, SAM, FSAM, Accounting Multipliers Models, Spain.

JEL Classification: C67, D57, E16.

Who drives climate change? The relevance of extreme inequality

Autor/Author: Guadalupe Arce González Coautores/co-authors: Luis Antonio López, Alexandre Tisserant, Richard Wood

Español La reducción de la desigualdad se presenta como un motor de crecimiento económico. Recientemente, el tema de cómo la desigualdad incide en los distintos impactos ambientales también ha sido explorada: ¿Son los países con mayor nivel de desigualdad más o menos

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responsables de los impactos ambientales? ¿Puede la reducción de la desigualdad generar resultados positivos tanto en términos de crecimiento económico como en desacoplamiento de los impactos ambientales? Una perspectiva interesante es la propuesta por Palma (2011 and 2014), que encuentra que en la mayoría de países existe desigualdad extrema de la distribución de la renta. Dicha desigualdad se produce porque la población de mayores ingresos se apropia de una parte significativa de la renta que reciben los individuos de los escalones más bajos de la sociedad y no a costa de la renta de las clases medias, que se mantiene estable, provocando por tanto que la distancia entre ricos y pobres sea más amplia que nunca. En este trabajo se basa en estudios anteriores para medir el impacto que la desigualdad en la distribución de la renta teniendo en cuenta el impacto ambiental, económico y social del consumo que realizan los hogares. Se definen para ello dos medidas, una absoluta frente a una relativa. Además, y dado que un solo indicador no es suficiente para hacer frente a toda la gama de problemas de desigualdad, tratamos de comparar con otras medidas, como índice de Gini o el coeficiente de asimetría de Lorenz. Al hablar de sostenibilidad, en su sentido más amplio, tenemos que tener en cuenta no sólo los impactos ambientales, sino también los sociales y económicos. Por tanto, en este trabajo se realiza un desde una perspectiva triple bottom line (TBL) o también conocida como triple P (people, planet, profit). La utilización de un modelo multi-regional input-output (MRIO) nos permite obtener la huella social (empleo), económica (valor añadido) y ambiental (emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, agua, materiales y uso de la tierra) asociada al consumo de los hogares en función de su distinto nivel de renta: desde las rentas altas a aquellos que están por debajo de línea de pobreza y en riesgo de exclusión social. La aplicación empírica se lleva a cabo utilizando EXIOBASE para el año 2010 y para los países de la UE-28 y Noruega.

English Reduction of inequality has been argued to be a driver of economic growth. Recently, the topic of how inequality relates to environmental impacts has also been explored – do we see populations with higher degrees of inequality responsible for more or less environmental impacts? Can reduction of inequality result in both economic growth, and decoupling of environmental impacts? An interesting perspective is shown by Palma (2011 and 2014) that in most countries exist extreme inequalities in income distribution. This extreme inequality occurs because the higher income population appropriates a significant part of the income that was previously received by lower groups of income, but not at the expense of the middle class, which is relatively stable, thereby causing the gap between rich and poor to be wider than ever. This paper builds on earlier work to measure the impact that inequality in income distribution has

on the environmental, economic and social footprint of households. We define two measures: an

absolute Palma footprint ratio versus a relative measure. In addition, since no single indicator is

sufficient for addressing the entire range of equity concerns, we try to compare with other

inequality measures (as Gini index or the Lorenz asymmetry coefficient). Because of the

importance of sustainability concerns beyond just carbon, we have to take into account the

social, economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, the paper will focus on an impact

analysis from a triple bottom line perspective, sometimes referred to as TBL or triple P: people,

planet, profit.

The use of a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model allows us to obtain the social (employment), economic (value added) and environmental (GHG emissions, water, materials and land use) footprint associated with households’ consumption according to the different income bracket, from the highest income levels to those who are below poverty line and at risk of social exclusion. The empirical application is carried out using EXIOBASE, for the year 2010, and for regions of the EU-28 and Norway.

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A Dynamic Input-Output Model for the Mexican Economy

Autor/Author: Rafael César Bouchain Galicia

This article presents the principal aspects of a dynamic mathematical model designed for the mexican economy whit the purpose of simulating the outcome of diferent economic policies. The model is a variation of Leontief's dynamic input-output scheme. Demand functions are estimated with the Linear Expenditure System. Once the demand functions and their growth rates are known, a method for calculating the compatible growth rates of sectorial productions, as well as necesary investments by sector of origin and destination compatible with the growth rates of production and demmand, is the research question. The theoretical objetive of this work is to elucidate, in a dynamical input-output system, the relationships betwen the growth rates of gross productions and final consumtion demands. The model departs from Von Neumann type models, in wich all sectors grow at the same rate. It generalizes the Pasinetti concept of vertical integration to a dynamical context where investments are endogenously calculated and here the growth rates of each one of the final demandas are known. The dynamic input-output model is designed based on input-output table for 2008 because there is complete information related to capital stocks by origin and destination and the survey of household spending. The model predicts growth rates of sectoral investments needed to achieve the results observed in the input-output table 2012. The novelty of the proposed model is that it allows the different sector rates of investment needed to achieve the goals of economic growth.

MULTIREGIONAL INPUT OUTPUT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO AN

INNOVATIVE CONFIGURATION OF SOLAR POWER TECHNOLOGY

Autor/Author: Blanca Corona Bellostas Coautores/co-authors: Cristina de la Rúa

The aim of this study is to estimate the socioeconomic net effects associated with the production of electricity by a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant with HYSOL configuration, using Multiregional Input Output Analysis and the Levelized Cost of Energy. HYSOL is the acronym of a research project lead by the Spanish engineering company ACS-COBRA and funded by the European Commission. The aim of this project is to develop and test a new hybrid configuration for CSP plants intended to achieve higher energy efficiency, reduced economic and environmental costs, and also improved firmness and dispatchability in the generation of power on demand.

The socio-economic effects have been estimated in terms of production of direct, indirect and induced Goods and Services (G&S), multiplier effect, value added, and employment creation. The results are presented both in gross and net terms, including not only the effects of the system’s life cycle but also the avoided effects derived from the displacement of other technologies in the Spanish electricity market. These technologies, denominated mix of marginal technologies, were estimated by identifying those technologies which were pricing the electricity each hour during year 2014. The effects of the displaced electricity have been calculated by estimating the Levelized Cost Of Energy of the mix of marginal technologies displaced by the CSP plant. The results indicate that the life cycle of a HYSOL CSP plant produces the following socio-economic effects per functional unit: 381 $ /MWh of G&S, 165 $/MWh of value added and 2.93 hours/MWh of employment. When considering the displacement of the marginal technologies (net calculation), the results suggests that providing electricity from a HYSOL CSP plant to the Spanish power grid generates positive impacts on the employment creation, and the Spanish value added generation, but decreases the G&S generation. This is due to the fact that G&S per functional unit

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produced by the marginal technologies resulted to be superior to those produced throughout the life cycle of the HYSOL CSP plant. However, the life cycle of the HYSOL CSP technology creates more relatively and absolute value added in Spain than the displaced marginal technologies.

The results also suggest that the HYSOL CSP technology is especially beneficial to the Spanish

economy (79% of value added is created in Spain) and to a lower extent to other non-domestic economies also affected by the generated economic activity (primarily Germany but also Italy,

USA and France).

A Generalized Cross Entropy formulation for matrix balancing with both positive and

negative entries Autor/Author: Esteban Fernandez Vazquez

This paper presents a matrix balancing technique based on Generalized Cross Entropy (GCE) that can be suitable for matrices containing both positive and negative entries. This technique makes possible sing flips in the cells of the initial and the estimated matrices, which can be something desirable in situations where assuming sign-prevention for all the entries of the matrix could be too restrictive. An additional advantage is that GCE allows for doing some inference with the estimates, something not possible when using biproportional balancing techniques like Generalized RAS (GRAS), which is the method commonly applied to balance matrices with positive and negative cells. The basic idea of the proposed GCE method is to assume each cell of the target matrix as a random variable for which we have partial information in the initial matrix. The GCE procedure assumes each observation in this matrix as a specific realization of a random process that generates the cells and it requires setting exogenously some bounds for the maximum and minimum values that this random process could generate. From this information, together with some partial data on the target matrix, the adjustment process is approached as a -constrained- minimization problem of a Kullback-Leibler divergence. A simple illustrative example shows how GCE works when adjusting a matrix characterized by having positive and negative entries within a Supply and Use (SUT) framework. Additionally, its performance is evaluated by means of a numerical simulation.

Temporal Disaggregation in Input-output Systems: Modeling

Unexpected Events

Autor/Author: Geoffrey J.D. Hewings Coautores/co-authors: Andre Fernandes Tomon Avelino

The general consensus on climate change appears to suggest a higher frequency and intensity of extreme events such as those in Fukushima, Japan and the current (2016) extreme flooding in Louisiana, USA. These activities present significant modeling challenges. In this paper, I will briefly review some approaches to the modeling of unexpected events where a more compressed temporal dimension (daily, monthly, quarterly) is required in contrast to the usual annual-based systems that we construct. I will present findings from a continuous time econometric-input-output model, a sequential input-output system and the temporal Leontief Inverse developed by Sonis and Hewings. I will also review some of the other approaches including the inoperability input-output system and finally present some initial findings on work modifying the T-EURO method of IO accounts adjustment for temporal disaggregation.

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Growth, R&D expenditure and spillover effects: An input-output approach.

Autor/Author: Sofía Jiménez Coautores/co-authors: Rosa Duarte, Julio Sánchez Chóliz

R&D expenditure seems to be key explaining economic growth in developed countries. Some papers have attempted to analyse the effect of R&D expenditure realized in a particular sector over others. We can mention papers such as Tsai, K-H et al. (2004), Bernstein, J. I (1999) or Berdnt, E.R. (1995) focused on specific sectors such as manufacturing sectors or high-tech industry. In this paper, on the basis of Ten Raa, T et al. (2000), that suggest an alternative way to calculate spillover effects of R&D expenditure and its effect over total factor productivity and Antonelli (2015) that captures the role of knowledge externalities over productivity making use of input-output tables of 15 countries, we deal with two interesting topics. First, we calculate within a multiregional framework R&D spillovers from two perspectives: final consumption (R&D embodied in final demand) and production (R&D invested). The second approximation is related with the distribution of the embodied R&D effect over economic growth. Empirically, we use MRIO-WIOD (1995 to 2011) to as well as R&D expenditure information provided by the OECD databases. Preliminary results seem to reflect that the countries that achieve the most important role from both perspectives are USA, Japan and Germany, although scenery changes when we introduce China. In general, it is observed an increase in the number of ‘characters’ along the period studied. If we pay attention on R&D embodied and invested coming from non-domestic countries we can observe that other countries gain relevance; Mexico and Canada in the case of R&D embodied perspective (surely due to their relationships with USA), France, UK or Italy in the case R&D invested perspective (probably as an indicator of European agreements). Respect to sectors behavior, it is possible to observe a common pattern between countries , being the sectors where we find the highest level of, both, R&D embodied and R&D invested Rest of services, Transport equipment and Electrical and optical equipment. These results seem to be coherent with data used, as great part of R&D expenditure is done in high-tech industry sectors or in Rest of services. Once a first picture of R&D flows in the world economy is obtained, the other question we try to

analyze in this paper is the effect of this R&D over economic growth. In that way, we can expect that direct and indirect R&D expenditure has a positive effect over productivity and, so, over economic growth. However, in our opinion this effect is not immediate. It has to pass some time until these effects are visible in the economy; in other words, there is a gap between R&D investment and its effect on productivity and growth. We approximate to this idea using econometric techniques. In order to study what kind of regression adjusts better, we use minimum least squares, following the ideas of R. Griffith (2004). First’s results seem to show that there is a gap between 5-7 years.

A CGE model for Spain focusing on the electricity sector

Autor/Author: Raquel Langarita

In the Spanish electricity system there are some problems, such as the low competition among the firms in the sector, even the low external competition because of the lack of network with Europe, the recent emergence of the tariff deficit, the recent reforms that are causing legal uncertainty (even for implementing the self-consumption), the design of the tariffs or the price hike that these problems are causing.

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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are an excellent tool with which to study the energy sector. These CGE models need any database to be calibrated. The most common database used in the literature is a disaggregated social accounting matrix (SAM), which allows for a very detailed disaggregation of the sectors. In order to correctly depict the current electricity system structure, since the electricity sector activities were decoupled, we need a SAM with the electricity sector disaggregated into its activities: generation, transmission, distribution and commercialization. And, at the same time, we want to disaggregate the generation activity into its several production technologies. With the objective of studying the Spanish electricity sector and the impact on the whole economy of different change scenarios, our starting point is the construction of a SAM for Spain for 2010 with the commented disaggregation of the electricity system. On the basis of the constructed table, the following step is to build and calibrate a CGE model, representative of this economy. We present a preliminary, static, CGE model, in which the productive process is carried out through a nesting production function taking into account the splitting of the electricity activities. This implies to consider functions which link the several subsectors and study the involved elasticities. The total output (Y) is produced as a combination of intermediate inputs (A) (except for energy) and the capital-labor-energy (KLE) bundle. Following the assumption of Armington (1969), the intermediate inputs are a combination through a CES function of domestic production (D) and imports (M). At the same time, Y is allocated to exports (X) and domestic production (D) through a CET function. KLE is produced as a combination of labor (L) and the capital-energy (KE) bundle. KE combines capital (K) and an energy block (E). E is a combination of electricity and non-electric energy. Inside the non-electric bundle we can distinguish between Gas and Coke and petroleum. In the electricity block we distinguish between the electricity sector activities and, in the generation activity we distinguish between several production technologies.

The following step consists of determining the elasticities of substitution for each nesting level and for each sector. Finally, we will study the effects of an exogenous shock and changes in the different behavior

parameters on the main variables of the economy, focusing on GDP and employment taking into

account the detected problems of the electricity system.

As possible simulation scenario, we can simulate what would happen if the connection with

Europe increased. For that, taking into account our productive structure and the functioning of

the electricity system in Spain, we can simulate what would be the effects if imports and exports

were not null (or hardly null in some cases).

What happens if we treat commuting as intermediate consumption? Autor/Author: Luis Antonio López Coautores/co-authors: Tobias Kronenberg

Commuting is an important activity in the lives of many people. In the OECD countries, the average time spent commuting per workday ranges from 43 minutes (Australia) to 82 minutes (Japan). Most European countries are near the middle of this range, with average commuting times of 62 minutes in France, 65 minutes in Spain, and 66 minutes in Germany (OECD, n.d.). Commuting is also an important part of the economy – many jobs depend on the production of goods and services related to commuting, for example those of bus drivers and gas station

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employees. From an environmental point of view, however, the extent of commuting in modern economies is problematic. Commuting accounts for a significant share of total greenhouse gas emissions in all modern economies. For example, according Jackson et al. (2006), who study the carbon emissions associated with the consumption of private households in the United Kingdom, 7.9% of total emissions were related to commuting. Our goal is to contribute to the study of commuting and the economic and ecological issues associated with it. We propose a modification to the official input-output table that allows us to identify the expenditure on commuting by product and by industry. We propose a three-step approach. In the first step, we collect data to determine how much money households spend on commuting (gasoline, train tickets, etc.). The tricky part is to disentangle the amount spent on commuting from the amount spent on other purposes. In the second step, we extend the input-output table in order to show the commuting expenditure (estimated above) separately from the other expenditure. We divide final consumption by households into “commuting expenditure” and “other expenditure”. This step already allows us the analysis of several interesting topics, for example the direct and indirect effects of commuting on employment, energy consumption, emissions and so on. In the third step, we extend the interindustry transactions matrix with an additional row and an additional column. We move the commuting expenditure by final households from the final consumption quadrant into the new column labelled “commuting services”. To maintain the accounting balances, we enter the “use of commuting services” into the corresponding row. In order to do this we need information on commuting by industry. In the environmental satellite account, this means that the emissions associated with commuting will be moved from the household sector to the new “commuting services” sector.

The modified table can be used for many applications in the fields of ecological economics and regional studies. First, we will be able to say something about the direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions associated with commuting as well as the number of jobs that depend on commuting expenditure. Second, when the modified IOT is finished, we will be able to study the emission intensity of different products and industries, taking into account that commuting patterns may differ across industries. Certain products that currently seem relatively “clean” may contain much higher embodied emissions if we consider the fact that workers who produce these products have consumed gasoline to get from their homes to their workplaces.

Is the Emperor naked? Tracking the social sustainability of EU 2007-2013

Financial Framework Autor/Author: Fabio Monsalve Coautores/co-authors: Jorge Enrique Zafrilla Rodríguez, María Ángeles Cadarso Vecina

Jean Monnet famous quote “We are not forming coalitions of states, we are uniting men” encapsulated ones of the deepest meanings of the ideal vision of Europe: the social commitment. European leaders throughout the years are proudly waved the social Flag as one of its constitutive and also differentiating elements in comparison with other visions of development. But this social “emperor’s new clothes” are real or just a brilliant, even invisible, disguise. It the emperor’s naked as claimed by a little child in the well-known story of Hans Christian Andersen. This paper will, first, try to analyse the impact of spatial distribution of the Funds 2007-2013 and the leakage effects to others territories. Secondly, and relying on the Satellite Economic Accounts of the World Input Output Database, it would be addressed the social (wages and skill level) consequences of these expenditures, inside Europe as well as outside.

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The methodological approach will be a multiregional input-output (MRIO) model. This model will

allow us to research into the trade relations of target regions in order to set the losses or gains of multiplier effects from the economic as well as social perspective due to the increasing trade

globalization. Main data come from WIOD database and the European Union Budget office.

The analysis accomplished leads us to conclude that the globalization put in danger some of the

social high standards which encompass all of European policies. It is not a matter of constraining free trade but required that, at least, the expenditure funded with European money should be

committed to those standards.

Emisiones de CO2 de la construcción en España: análisis y descomposición

mediante subsistemas input-output Autor/Author: Emilio Padilla Coautores/co-authors: Vicente Alcántara Escolano

El trabajo estudia las emisiones de las actividades de construcción en España en 2007, año previo a la crisis. Para el análisis, se utiliza el método de los subsistemas input-output, el cuál permite estudiar la estructura productiva de las actividades del subsistema sin desvincular a éste del resto del sistema. El sector de la construcción tiene un especial interés en el caso de la economía española, dada su especial dimensión económica e impacto ambiental durante los años previos a la crisis económica. La descomposición de las emisiones totales en cuatro efectos explicativos nos permite hacer una clasificación de los diferentes sectores atendiendo al tipo de relaciones que mantienen con el resto, facilitando así un análisis detallado de las interrelaciones de las actividades del subsistema con el resto de sectores.

Power method applied to supply and use tables

Autor/Author: Xesús Pereira López Coautores/co-authors: André Carrascal Incera, Melchor Fernandez Fernandez ENGLISH

The power-of-pull technique classifies productive sectors by their backward linkages, using the symmetric input-output table [Dietzenbacher (1992): The measurement of interindustry linkages: Key sectors in the Netherlands, Economic Modelling]. This procedure is frequently applied in other scientific fields and is easy to implement, since it consists of obtaining the left eigenvector associated to the main eigenvalue for a base matrix. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate that the use of reducible or irreducible stochastic matrices is feasible for the supply and use framework. In other words, a refinement of the power-of-pull method is proposed. Applying the rectangular format is not straightforward; nevertheless it is not mandatory to implement this technique by means of a symmetric format. In this sense, it is shown how the technique used by Dietzenbacher can be exploited directly in this context, with the particularity that the production and intermediate consumption matrices must be combined properly. More specifically, the technique proposed provides insights about both the forward and backward linkages in relation to stochastic supply and use tables, considering it as an extension of the power-of-push-pull method.

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SPANISH

El método power-of-pull clasifica sectores productivos según su capacidad de arrastre, a partir de

la tabla input-output simétrica [Dietzenbacher (1992): The measurement of interindustry

linkages: Key sectors in the Netherlands, Economic Modelling]. Este procedimiento es frecuente

en otros ámbitos científicos y es fácil de ejecutar, dado que consiste en obtener –para una matriz

base– el autovector izquierdo asociado al autovalor dominante.

El objetivo primordial de este artículo es evidenciar que el uso de matrices estocásticas, reducibles o irreducibles, es adaptable a las tablas de origen y destino. Es decir, se trata de

refinar el método power-of-pull. En cierto modo, la explotación del formato rectangular es algo dificultosa pero aun así no es forzoso recurrir al formato simétrico. En este sentido, se verá cómo

la técnica empleada por Dietzenbacher se puede explotar de forma directa en este contexto, eso

sí con la particularidad de que las matrices de producción y consumos intermedios deben combinarse adecuadamente. De forma más concreta, la propuesta presentada aporta medidas,

tanto de impulso como de arrastre, en relación a tablas de origen y destino en versión

estocástica, acuñada esta propuesta como una extensión del método power-of-push-pull.

Análisis de descomposición estructural del consumo de energía en Chile.

Autor/Author: Rocío Román Colado

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los factores determinantes del cambio en el consumo de

energía en Chile entre los años 2008 y 2012, usando para ello el análisis de descomposición

estructural; técnica ampliamente utilizada para descomponer la variación de una variable en sus

factores determinantes.

Para poder realizar este análisis se han elaborado previamente las TIO a precios del año 2008

usando datos de las Cuentas Nacionales de Chile y los índices de precios, procedentes del Banco

Central de Chile y del Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas de Chile, respectivamente. En primer

lugar, se han elaborado las tablas de destino, empleándose para ello los cuadrantes de utilización

intermedia nacional, final, intermedia importada y cuadrante de valor agregado. Éstas, junto con

las matrices de producción (tablas de origen) se han usado para construir las TIO a precios

básicos, siguiendo el modelo D según la terminología de Eurostat.

Posteriormente, usando los índices de precios y las cuentas agregadas de la producción de las

actividades económicas (volumen a precios del año anterior encadenado), se han elaborado las

TIO a precios del año 2008. Estas tablas y los datos de energía tomados de la Comisión Nacional de Energía de Chile son los

empleados para realizar el análisis de descomposición estructural de tipo aditivo. Este permite

descomponer las variaciones de una variable en la suma de una serie de factores determinantes,

que en este caso han sido cinco: eficiencia energética, tecnología, estructura de la demanda,

patrón de demanda y escala. El resultado, cuando se utiliza varios factores es la existencia de

muchas formas de descomposición. En este trabajo, a diferencia de otros autores, no se emplea

la media de las descomposiciones polares o la descomposición aproximada mediante el uso de

las ponderaciones medias en períodos intermedios u otras, sino que se toman todas las

descomposiciones y se efectúa la media aritmética de ellas. Aunque resulte más laborioso, tiene

la ventaja de no presentar residuos como en otras técnicas.

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Los resultados que se esperan alcanzar permiten identificar los factores claves del cambio en el

consumo de energía en Chile en el periodo analizado.

Análisis ex-post de los efectos macroeconómicos del comercio en América del

Norte entre 1995 y 2009 Autor/Author: Maria Victoria Román de Lara Coautores/co-authors: Iñaki Arto

El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar el efecto de la liberalización del flujo de bienes y capitales

en América del Norte sobre el empleo y el valor añadido. Para ello construimos un modelo input-

output multi-regional, utilizando los datos de la World Input-Output Database. Esto nos permite aislar los cambios que se han producido en los patrones comerciales dentro de la región entre 1995 y 2009, y cuantificar su impacto. Si bien se han llevado estudios previos con similar propósito, no tenemos constancia ninguno que lo haya hecho con esta metodología. A nivel regional obtenemos que el impacto sobre el empleo ha sido positivo (1.2 millones de empleos) mientras que el impacto sobre el valor añadido ha sido negativo (- 9.000 millones de dólares). A nivel país, se distingue que el impacto es positivo para México y Canadá, y negativo en los Estados Unidos. En México destaca el efecto sobre el empleo, que está asociado especialmente a cambios en el comercio de bienes finales de la industria textil. Por el contrario, en Canadá destaca el efecto sobre el valor añadido, sobre todo por cambios en el comercio de bienes intermedios en la minería. En Estados Unidos las pérdidas están asociadas en su mayor parte a cambios en el comercio de bienes intermedios y se concentran en los sectores de otras actividades comerciales, metalurgia, minería y equipamiento. En el conjunto de la región las rentas del capital aumentan 6.800 millones de dólares mientras que las del trabajo disminuyen más del doble. En todos los países el capital se beneficia más (o se ve menos perjudicado) que el trabajo del impacto sobre el valor añadido de los cambios comerciales. En cuanto a las rentas del trabajo por nivel de cualificación, los que más salen ganando (o perdiendo, en el caso de Estados Unidos) son los empleados de nivel de formación media. Los resultados obtenidos reflejan la distinta especialización productiva de los tres países en cadenas de valor compartidas, y se pueden relacionar con los procesos de deslocalización de ciertas fases de la producción en ciertos sectores, y la tendencia global a la reducción de la participación del trabajo en la renta. La metodología utilizada permite contemplar la dimensión temporal (mostrando, por ejemplo, los efectos de las crisis económicas de principios del 2000 y del 2007) y la dimensión trasfronteriza (evidenciando la influencia de los cambios en ciertos países sobre otros), lo que constituye la principal novedad e interés de este trabajo.

The SUT-EURO and the SUT-RAS methods: extensions and fair comparisons Autor/Author: Jose Manuel Rueda Cantuche Coautores/co-authors: Joerg Beutel, Elena Olmedo, Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo

The EURO Method for SUT tables (Beutel, 2008) along with the SUT-RAS Method (Temurshoev and Timmer, 2011) are among the most popular and recent contributions for projecting Supply and Use tables, having these methods been used in an extensive way for these purposes (v.gr. Eurostat, WIOD project). The empirical assessment of these methods casts a better performance of the SUT-RAS method compared to the EURO method, which may lead to favour the use of the first one for practical applications. However, this comparativeness is uneven since the SUT-RAS method requires larger exogenous information (outputs by industry) than the EURO method. This larger information, when available, may constitute an advantage for the SUT-RAS leading to the

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better performance. At the same time, when this information is not available the application of SUT-RAS is not possible. Could these methods be compared in a fair way? If this is possible, what methodology is better when confronting a practical application of these methods according to the available exogenous information for the projection period?

The authors have extended both methods in a double direction, extending the EURO Method to incorporate the output by industry among the exogenous information available for the projection, and restricting the SUT-RAS Method to exclude the output by industry of the available exogenous information. At the same time, these methods have been adapted for an explicit treatment of Taxes less Subsidies when this information is available in the projection period. In this way, it is possible to test the performance of these methods in a double scenario. First, a scenario with more restricted information, that is similar in terms of the available exogenous information to the one that traditional EURO Method demands. And a second scenario, with more extended available information for the projection, that is similar to the one where original SUT-RAS works.

Exogenous Information Available required:

For Scenario 1: SUT-RAS1 and SUT-EURO1 - GVA by industry - Final Demand totals - Total of imports - Total of Taxes less Subsidies

For Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + Output by industry -> SUT-RAS2 and SUT-EURO2

We apply these methods to a series of benchmark SUTs for the period 2000-2005 of Austria,

Belgium, Italy and Spain with a disaggregation of 60 products, 60 industries and 3 components

for the Final Demand. Benchmark use tables at basic prices were available only for these

countries. We compare the results of the SUT-EURO method against the SUT-RAS in both

scenarios, and also compare the outcomes methods in scenario 1 against their correlatives in

scenario 2.

Methods developed in this work are completely original extensions of the EURO Method for SUT of Beutel and the SUT-RAS of Temurshoev and Timmer. We have extended the SUT-EURO taking the output by industry as exogenous without losing the essential characteristics of the original EURO Method, making possible to test the EURO method evenly with the original SUT-RAS. Also an explicit treatment of taxes less subsidies is done in our methods, which is also an original extension for both methods. Concerning the SUT-RAS-1 we have achieved to restrict the SUT-RAS, taking the output by industry as not available and, hence, it has to be projected endogenously. We have achieved this goal without losing the bi-proportional feature of the SUT-RAS method working, as in the original, in the context of an integrated supply and use framework. Outcomes achieved in our work allow us to assess what method is more suitable depending on the exogenous information available at the moment of the projection. Our outcomes have been tested for 4 countries, as stated above, and using different goodness of fit statistics, including some goodness of fit statistics that are also new in the context of matrices projections.

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IMPACTO ECONÓMICO DE LA RENTA SOCIAL BÁSICA. CANTABRIA 2011-2015 Autor/Author: Cristina Ruiz del Río Coautores/co-authors: María Isabel Cobo Fernández, Angela González Maldonado

SPANISH

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar y cuantificar el impacto económico que la renta social

básica produjo en la economía de Cantabria en el periodo 2011-2015. Para ello se ha utilizado,

como herramienta principal, el marco input-output Cantabria 2012. El modelo input-output es una herramienta que permite cuantificar las interrelaciones entre

ramas de actividad, siendo de suma importancia a la hora de poder medir los efectos que

cualquier actuación, tanto pública como privada, tienen en la producción de bienes y servicios y

en el empleo regional. En este caso se ha analizado el efecto de la Renta Social Básica (RSB), una

prestación económica de carácter periódico, dependiente del Gobierno de Cantabria, destinada a

hacer efectivo el derecho a la protección social en situación de carencia de recursos económicos.

Para determinar los efectos producidos por el incremento de la demanda, derivados de la RSB, se

ha utilizado un modelo de multiplicadores de impacto regionales y totales. Este modelo regional

permite valorar los impactos sobre el valor añadido bruto y el empleo en Cantabria en la

siguiente secuencia:

• El impacto indirecto derivado del incremento del consumo interior. • El impacto inducido producción-consumo mide el incremento en los consumos intermedios interiores necesario para satisfacer el aumento de producción que supone la nueva demanda interna, utilizando los multiplicadores de Leontief. • El impacto inducido producción-renta, vía sueldos y salarios, medido a partir de la inversa de

Leontief ampliada. Por otro lado, se estudia también la tasa de retorno al total de la economía nacional en términos

de producción y empleo, generado por el incremento de la demanda al resto de España, así como

la repercusión de estos efectos en la administración vía recaudación de impuestos (IVA e IRPF).

Como conclusión de este estudio se obtiene que la renta social básica, además de contribuir a

mejorar el bienestar social de la ciudadanía, tiene efectos positivos en la economía regional y por

tanto puede considerarse una inversión y no un gasto a fondo perdido.

ENGLISH

The aim of this study is to analyze and quantify the economic impact of basic social income

produced in the economy of Cantabria in 2011-2015. In order to achieve this goal, it has been

used as main tool, the input-output framework Cantabria 2012. The input-output framework is a tool that quantifies the interrelationships between activity sectors. It’s considered of great importance to measure the effects that any public or private actions have in the production of goods and services and in the regional employment. In this case we have analyzed the effect of basic social income that is a regular allowance, offered by the Government of Cantabria to guarantee the right to social in low-income families. To determine the effects of the increase in demand, derived from basic social income, we used a model of regional and total impact multipliers. This regional model allows to assess the impacts on the gross value added and employment in Cantabria in the next sequence:

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The indirect impact due to the increase in domestic consumption. The induced impact production-consumption measures the increase in domestic

intermediate consumption. This is needed to meet increased production involving the new domestic demand, using Leontief multipliers.

The induced impact production-income, through wages and salaries. It’s measured through

the Leontief inverse extended On the other hand, we also study the rate of return to the total national economy in terms of

output and employment generated by the increased demand to the rest of Spain, as well as the

impact of these effects on the administration through tax collection (IVA e IRPF).

In conclusion of this study we get that the basic social income not only contributes to improving

the social welfare of citizenship but also has positive effects on the regional economy. Therefore

it can be considered an investment rather than an expense non-refundable.

Inequalities and household carbon footprints: the allocation of emissions

embodied in investment Autor/Author: Mónica Serrano Gutiérrez Coautores/co-authors: Jordi Roca Jusmet

The consequences of rising greenhouse gases emissions, increasing (income) inequalities and the relationship between the two have attracted a growing interest in recent years. In this global context, it is important to develop climate policies that do not cause rise in economic inequalities

and, at the same time, to promote inequality reduction policies that reduce carbon emissions. However, an international environmental database that would allow comparable estimates of household carbon footprints at different income level and for different countries is still missing. As a result, research on inequality and emissions remain either too theoretical or too narrow-

focused. Any international environmental database aimed at orienting empirically the debate on to whether a more equitable society could be also a less carbon-intensive one needs to be grounded in a robust and systematic method that enables cross-country comparison of household carbon footprints. Filling this data gap requires, among other things, solving some outstanding methodological issues such as how should be considered emissions of non-monetary activities,

government expenditure, under-reported top income expenditures, or capital investments. The

latter is particularly important for emerging economies, where capital investment is a relatively high share of carbon footprint of final demand. This paper explores one of these methodological issues, the emissions embodied in investment. In particular we focused on the estimation of carbon emissions of gross fixed capital formation of industries and how these emissions should be allocated to final consumption expenditures of different income-level households. This issue has been recurrently omitted in household carbon footprints. There are two very different aspects. On the one hand, carbon footprints of households classified by income- level implicitly assume that emissions related to household savings are zero; however, through the financial sector part of those savings are typically borrowed by industries to buy capital goods, such as equipment, machinery, or buildings whose production involves emission of different gases. And on the other hand, standard input-output models account for the consumption of circulating capital, i.e. the consumption of intermediate goods,

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but not for the consumption of fixed capital, i.e. depreciation of capital goods, which is required for linking emissions embodied in investment of capital goods and the consumption of that capital goods in the production processes of industries. This paper will offer a theoretical discussion of how these aspects can be addressed in input-output models, and provide empirical evidence using the case of Spain. We choose a European country because of our expertise and access to data.

Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis

Autor/Author: Umed Temurshoev

This work provides an extensive overview of the input-output (IO) literature, both theoretical

and empirical, dealing with the inherent IO data uncertainty issues. The survey is carried

out on the basis of a specific uncertainty technique used, rather than taking a chronological

overview approach, which also allows for easier comparisons and linking of the outcomes of

the individual contributions. Thus, we discuss the literature within seven methodological

blocks (sections), which include deterministic error analysis, econometric and other (non-

Bayesian) statistical approaches, random error analysis and probabilistic approach, full

probability density distribution approach, Monte Carlo analysis, Bayesian approach, and

other techniques. Within each section, the literature on a certain topic is reviewed in its

historical context, which helps to clarify the state of the art. Our main findings from this

survey, related discussions, final remarks and observations are given in the concluding

section.

CO2 Diet emissions projections: Will we become greener or just older?

Autor/Author: María Ángeles Tobarra Gómez Coautores/co-authors: Nuria Gomez Sanz

In the next twenty years demographics in Spain, as in many developed countries, are predicted to experience an important change: population will decrease by over one million (more than 2%) and people over 65 will increase from 18% to 25% of total population. This paper tries to contribute to the literature on the relationship between diet and emissions by including the importance of family structure and population aging, as well as their future evolution, on food emissions. Previous literature calculates food’s weight in global emissions between 15% and 30%, positioning food as a key element when it comes to reduce emissions because that, however have to be tackled cautiously because of its categorization as basic need. The paper aim is twofold, firstly it focuses on the calculation and analysis of the carbon footprint (CF) generated by real food choices made by Spanish households at the present. Food choices have been found to be determined by household structure. The number of family members and their age patterns are decisive when it comes to decide diet, so relations between emissions and family structure are obvious. Secondly, population projections are built and food CF are calculated considering a number of plausible future scenarios.

Emissions are calculated from food and beverages consumption for different types of Spanish

households in 2006, 2010 and 2014 and projected emissions in 2030, using a multi-regional

input-output model. Data from the ExioBase for 48 regions and 200 products are used for input-

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output and emissions coefficients and data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey at micro

level provides the demand vector for each type of family. Finally, demographic projections from

Spanish Statistical Office are used to consider future demand.

Results show that the population decrease is not followed by a reduction in food related emissions, on the contrary, the base scenario shows an increase of around 2% until 2030, mainly due to the aging of the population, as older singles and couples spend more in food products. Also the products that increase emissions in a greater deal are not those classified as big polluters, mainly beef and also other types of meat, but vegetables and fruits, vegetable oils and fish, while the emissions from consumption in restaurants will decrease significantly. Comparing three different scenarios, we can see that the increase will be slightly lower if we

take into account the trends in household structure, while trebling the percentage of vegan and

vegetarian households only reduces emissions slightly, mainly because it reduces a lot

emissions from consumption in restaurants (and relatively all types of meat obviously).

The environmental foodprint of EU28 and potential environmental savings through

food waste reductions Autor/Author: Arkaitz Usubiaga Liaño

Food is one of the most relevant consumption clusters for environmental policy both because of

the pressures its production leads to as well as its high inefficiency in terms of the amount of

edible food lost in its value chain. The European Commission flagged the food waste issue in 2010

and adopted a series of policies that partially address the problem. Among these, the Resource

Efficiency Roadmap set the aspirational goal of reducing the resource inputs in the food chain by

20% and decreasing the disposal of edible food losses by 50% by 2020. In this paper we combine

a high-resolution multi-regional input-output model and food waste studies to provide insights on

the environmental pressures associated with food consumption in EU28 between 1995 and 2011,

as well as on the potential yearly environmental savings that could be achieved by complying

with the aspirational targets of the Roadmap.

Our results show that halving consumer food waste in EU28 would lead to 2-7% reduction in the

EU28’s total footprint (depending on the environmental category) compared to the 2011 levels.

This would also result in a 9-10% reduction in inputs of resources such as land, materials and blue

water in the food value chain, thereby delivering around half of the 20% resource reduction

required. These are notorious environmental benefits, considering that tackling food waste is also

expected to yield net economic savings.

Despite the seemingly win-win opportunities, the 2020 target will not likely be met due to

insufficient action both at Member State and European level. The Sustainable Development Goals

provide a new deadline for reducing edible food waste and harvesting the environmental and

economic benefits arising therefrom. There is much to be done if the EU intends to rise up to the

challenge of decreasing its per capita food waste generation by 50% by 2030.

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Lista de Autores

Apellido, Nombre/Surname, Firstname Afiliación, País y Email/Affiliation, Country and Email Sesión Paralela/Session

ALCANTARA, VICENTE UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE BARCELONA, ESPAÑA

[email protected]

ALVAREZ, SERGIO TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MADRID, ESPAÑA Sesión 3/Session 3, Zubiria Etxea,

[email protected] Salón de Grados

AMORES, ANTONIO F. EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (EC Sesión 1/Session 1, Zubiria Etxea,

JRC), ESPAÑA Salón de Grados

[email protected] ARAY, HENRY UNIVERSIDAD DE GRANADA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] ARCE GONZÁLEZ, GUADALUPE UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA Sesión 3/Session 3, Zubiria Etxea,


ARTO, IÑAKI BASQUE CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (BC3), ESPAÑA

[email protected] BEUTEL, JOERG KONSTANZ UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SIENCES, ALEMANIA

[email protected] BOUCHAIN GALICIA, RAFAEL INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS, Sesión 2/Session 2, Zubiria Etxea,

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO (UNAM), Salón de Grados

MÉXICO

[email protected] CADARSO VECINA, MARÍA ÁNGELES UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] CARRASCAL INCERA, ANDRÉ UNIVERSIDADE DE SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] COBO FERNÁNDEZ, MARÍA ISABEL NO, ESPAÑA

[email protected] CORONA BELLOSTAS, BLANCA UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID, ESPAÑA Sesión 3/Session 3, Zubiria Etxea,


DE LA RÚA, CRISTINA CIEMAT, ESPAÑA

[email protected] DUARTE, ROSA UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] FERNANDES TOMON AVELINO, ANDRE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN, ESTADOS

UNIDOS

[email protected] FERNANDEZ FERNANDEZ, MELCHOR UNIVERSIDADE DE SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] FERNANDEZ VAZQUEZ, ESTEBAN UNIVERSIDAD DE OVIEDO, ESPAÑA Sesión 1/Session 1, Zubiria Etxea,


GOMEZ SANZ, NURIA UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] GONZALEZ MALDONADO, ANGELA NO, ESPAÑA

[email protected] HEWINGS, GEOFFREY REAL, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, ESTADOS UNIDOS Conferencia Invitada/Keynote,

[email protected] Zubiria Etxea, Salón de Grados

JIMÉNEZ, SOFÍA UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA, ESPAÑA Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,


KRONENBERG, TOBIAS BOCHUM UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES, ALEMANIA

[email protected] LANGARITA, RAQUEL UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA, ESPAÑA Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,


LÓPEZ, LUIS UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,


MONSALVE, FABIO UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA Sesión 2/Session 2, Zubiria Etxea,


25

5 Workshop SHAIO

Nombre Completo Afiliación, País y Email Sesión Paralela

OLMEDO, ELENA UNIVERSIDAD DE SEVILLA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] PADILLA ROSA, EMILIO DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA, UNIVERSIDAD Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,

AUTÓNOMA DE BARCELONA, ESPAÑA Salón de Grados

[email protected] PEDAUGA, LUIS UNIVERSIDAD DE GRANADA, ESPAÑA Sesión 2/Session 2, Zubiria Etxea,


PEREIRA LÓPEZ, XESÚS UNIVERSIDADE DE SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA, ESPAÑA Sesión 1/Session 1, Zubiria Etxea,


ROCA JUSMET, JORDI UNIVERSIDAD DE BARCELONA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] RODRIGUES, JOAO LEIDEN UNIVERSITY, PAÍSES BAJOS

[email protected] RODRÍGUEZ PÉREZ, DANIEL DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERÍA Y MORFOLOGÍA DEL

TERRENO. ETSI CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS. UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID, ESPAÑA

[email protected] ROMÁN COLADO, ROCÍO UNIVERSIDAD DE SEVILLA, ESPAÑA Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,


ROMÁN DE LARA, MARIA BASQUE CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (BC3), ESPAÑA Sesión 2/Session 2, Zubiria Etxea,


RUEDA CANTUCHE, JOSE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (EC Sesión 1/Session 1, Zubiria Etxea,

JRC), ESPAÑA Salón de Grados

[email protected] RUIZ DEL RÍO, CRISTINA NO, ESPAÑA Sesión 2/Session 2, Zubiria Etxea,


SÁNCHEZ CHÓLIZ, JULIO UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] SERRANO GUTIÉRREZ, MÓNICA UNIVERSIDAD DE BARCELONA, ESPAÑA Sesión 4/Session 4, Zubiria Etxea,


TEMURSHOEV, UMED UNIVERSIDAD LOYOLA ANDALUCÍA, ESPAÑA Sesión 1/Session 1, Zubiria Etxea,


TISSERANT, ALEXANDRE NTNU, NORUEGA

[email protected] TOBARRA GÓMEZ, MARÍA ÁNGELES UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA Sesión 3/Session 3, Zubiria Etxea,


USUBIAGA LIAÑO, ARKAITZ UCL INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE RESOURCES, REINO Sesión 3/Session 3, Zubiria Etxea,

UNIDO Salón de Grados

[email protected] VALDERAS JARAMILLO, JUAN MANUEL EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (EC JRC),

ESPAÑA

[email protected] VELÁZQUEZ ALFONSO, AGUSTÍN UNIVERSIDAD DE GRANADA, ESPAÑA

[email protected] WOOD, RICHARD NTNU, NORUEGA

[email protected] ZAFRILLA RODRÍGUEZ, JORGE UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, ESPAÑA

[email protected]

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