ana iglesias - ecoagua, zaragoza 24 septiembre 2008 1 ana iglesias, universidad politécnica de...
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Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1
Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
La economía de agua de riego
24 Septiembre 2008
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 2
PESETA (JRC)
Adaptation (DG Agri)
PICCMAT (6th FP)
CIRCE (6th FP)
SWAP (6th FP)
ClimateCost (7th FP)
MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 3
• For the last 10,000 years we have been living in a remarkable stable climate that allowed the whole of the human development to take place
• In all that time, though the medieval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1ºC
• Now we see the potential for sudden change of between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what the world is like at those temperatures, we have no idea if we can live in it
Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 4
Production in a changing climate
• Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production?
– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions – Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for?
– Focus on policy integration
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 5
Climate impacts
Climate dynamics
Societaldynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 6
Climate dynamics Observed and projected warming in the EU
Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre
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More extreme eventsProjected changes in drought risk (%)
under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario
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Annual Streamflow in Bolarque and SPI
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
19
11
/12
19
19
/20
19
27
/28
19
35
/36
19
43
/44
19
51
/52
19
59
/60
19
67
/68
19
75
/76
19
83
/84
19
91
/92
19
99
/00
Hm
3
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SP
I (2
4 m
on
ths
)
Ann Inflow SPI (24) Lineal (Ann Inflow)
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 9
Changes in water supply and demand with climate change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% c
han
ge
fro
m b
asel
ine
Irrigation demand Rservoir water inflow Available water resources
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
# 1. Scenarios:
Water supply and demand
#
#
#
#
#
Mediterra
nean Sea
France
Po
rtu
gal
Atlantic
Ocean
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
910
11
12
#
#
#
#
#
Mediterra
nean Sea
France
Po
rtu
gal
Atlantic
Ocean
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
910
11
12
Iglesias et al. 2008
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Climate impacts
Climate dynamics
Societaldynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
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Agricultural exports and imports (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
EU USA China RoW
Mill
ion
t
Exports Imports
Global scale
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 14
Climate impacts
Climate dynamics
Societaldynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Challenges and opportunities
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Challenges and opportunitiesRegional disparities
Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline
(Iglesias et al. 2007)
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Boreal
• Expansion of areas and growing season• Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases• Risk of soil structure loss
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 17
Atlantic NAtlantic C
• Sea level rise • Floods, water-
logging• Summer drought• Environmental
policy determines the opportunities
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# 3. Useful knowledgeThe role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992)
Fuente: OECDhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 19Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec
Atlantic S
• Decline of high quality crops
• Regulations may limit opportunities
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 20
Balance Carbono en ChampagneBalance Carbono en Champagne
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 21
Continental NContinental S
• Heat stress and drought in summer (e.g., 2007)
• Floods, water-logging• Environmental degradation• New crops, energy crops
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# 4. Flexible risk management
• The past is not a reliable indicator of the future
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Alpine
• Glacier melt• Modification of the hydrological
regime with large implications for soil erosion, water availability, etc
• Further stress to highly vulnerable areas
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 24
Med NMed S
• Water scarcity and drought• Conflicts among water
users• Vulnerability of the complex
interactions of agriculture-ecosystems
• Limitations of rural development
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 25
The Stern Review of the Economics of
Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006)• Argues that “the overall costs and risks of
climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP1 each year”
• Challenged by many economists with large working experience in climate change (Tol, 2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005; Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and Tol, 2005)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 26
Change value of GDP 2080s (agriculture shock)
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Rest of EU Med North Med South ROW% c
hang
e
HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 ECHAM A2 ECHAM B2
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 27
Production in a changing climate
• Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production?
– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions – Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for?
– Focus on policy integration
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 28
Climate impacts
Climate dynamics
Societaldynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 29
• Kyoto protocol
• Lisbon strategy
• SD strategy
• EU White Paper on Adaptation
• CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D
• Local initiatives (early stages, dissemination, awareness building)
Existing set of policies
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 30
Building adaptive capacity
Awareness raising
Research (spatial and time dimension)
Knowledge transfer
Risk management
Policy support in order to deliver adaptation actions
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Building adaptive capacity
Delivering adaptation actions
Supported by policy
Strategic combination of the CC commitments of various policies
Technology, infrastructure
Changes in land use
Flexible resource management and efficiency
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 32
Role of RD (CAP)
A flexible framework
Axis 1Farm modernizationRestoring & preventionFarm advisory servicesTrainingAxis 2Agri-env measuresPayments linked to WFDAxis 3Diversification into non-agricultural activities
Leader
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Natural resources dimension
Socialdimension
Technologicaldimension
Economicdimension
Climate policy index
Vulnerability
Climate change
Impacts
# 5. Understanding how may policy modify climate risks
Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 34
• Values range from 0 to 1
• High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable)
Source: CIRCE
Climate policy index
Algeria 0.31
Egypt 0.43
France 0.62
Israel 0.48
Italy 0.61
Libya 0.30
Morocco 0.40
Spain 0.55
Syria 0.49
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 35
Climate impacts on agriculture with different policies
HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100 (% yield change respect to baseline)
Agric output
Adaptation Policy Env (1)
Adaptation Farm (2)
Adaptation Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3)
Mediterranean Europe -50 to -25 1 0 to 20
(1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection and urban development(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)(3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural production and rural development Soure: Iglesias et al 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 37
Thinking more about …
1. Climate scenarios are not enough
2. Understanding of local vulnerabilities
3. Useful knowledge (involving practitioners, industry)
4. Moving towards a flexible, risk management
5. Understanding how policy modifies climate risks and opportunities
• Learning how to respond in the long term
• Learning how to avoid political crisis