modelos hidrogeológicos para la gestión de las aguas subterráneas · 2019-12-13 · es indudable...

¿Por qué usar modelos para gestionar el

agua subterránea?

Concepto de modelo y ejemplos

¿Qué se necesita?

Resultados

Reflexiones

https://1241m.blogspot.com/

Similitud con los modelos de predicción meteorológica

Existen datos a escala mundial de temperatura, lluvia, viento…

https://www.ventusky.com/

Son claves los modelos numéricos para la predicción meteorológica

AEMET

http://www.aemet.es/es/idi/prediccion/

prediccion_numerica

https://weather.com/es-ES/espana/tiempo/news/2017-12-11-tiempo-prevision-meteorologos

https://weather.com/es-ES/espana/tiempo/news/2017-12-11-tiempo-prevision-meteorologos

Mapa de los cambios en la cantidad de agua del 2002 al 2016

Existen datos a escala mundial sobre el agua subterránea

https://trend.pewtrusts.org/en/archive/spring-2019/a-map-of-the-future-of-water

Es indudable la necesidad

de los modelos numéricos

de predicción

meteorológica a pesar de

los errores que tienen

asociados

De igual modo:

Los modelos numéricos son

necesarios en la gestión de

las aguas subterráneas

Pero… a nivel nacional su

uso sigue no siendo

“estándar”

http://www.aemet.es/es/idi/prediccion/

prediccion_numerica

https://www.waterloohydrogeologic.com/2013/08/26/groundwater-modeling-numerical-methods-which-one-should-you-use/

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/meetings/presentations/Bogota3010-0311-2017/3-

Monitoreo_Modelos_Hidrologicos_FEWS.pdf

https://hispagua.cedex.es/datos/hidrogeologia

https://gssiwater.com/experts-in-groundwater-modeling/

Es una simplificación conceptual que se realiza

con el ordenador para simular y predecir el

movimiento y uso del agua.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227287607_A_distributed_hy

drological-geotechnical_model_using_satellite-

derived_rainfall_estimates_for_shallow_landslide_prediction_system_at_

a_catchment_scale/figures?lo=1

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/meetings/presentatio

ns/Bogota3010-0311-2017/3-

Monitoreo_Modelos_Hidrologicos_FEWS.pdf

Es una simplificación conceptual que se realiza

con el ordenador para simular y predecir el

movimiento y uso del agua subterránea.

https://www.mdpi.c

om/2073-

4441/8/12/592

Proporciona un marco para organizar:

DATOS

MODELO

CONCEPTUAL

Representar

numéricamente

lo que ocurre

PREDECIR

https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/4755/2018/

Archivo con 37 modelos de acuíferos

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/sustainable-groundwater-

management/california-groundwater-modeling.html

- Datos de entrada

- Resultados

- Informes, publicaciones

- Páginas web

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/sustaina

ble-groundwater-

management/california-

groundwater-modeling.html

Balance anual

Mapa piezométrico

Modelo disponible online

Entradas/Salidas

http://c2vsim.wate

r.ca.gov/c2vsim/iw

fm.html#

https://ca.w

ater.usgs.gov

/sustainable-

groundwater

-

managemen

t/california-

groundwater

-

modeling.ht

ml

Informes mensuales del Servicio Geológico Británico

http://www.hydoutuk.

net/latest-outlook

Evaluación del estado de los acuíferos 3/12 meses futuros

Según el nivel piezométrico

http://www.hydoutuk.

net/latest-outlook

Datos

Modelo conceptual

Código numérico

Recarga

Piezometría

Conductividad hidráulica

Almacenamiento

Porosidad

Geometría

Condiciones de contorno › Flujo (manatiales, humedales,…)

› Bombeos

› Ríos

Diaria

Cálculo de la escorrentía y la infiltración

› Mapas de precipitación/Tª

› Mapas de suelo

› Mapas nivel freático

ECUACIÓN DE BALANCE DE AGUA

Precipitación = Escorrentía + Evapotranspiración

+ Cambios Almacenamiento

Visual Balan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3nT4BzMvw

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/sustainable-groundwater-management/california-groundwater-modeling.html

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277361049_Analisis_hidrogeologico_de_la_escombrera_exterior_de_la_antigua_mina_de_As_Pontes/figures?lo=1&utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic http://muchik.com/prueba-de-bombeo/

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/sustainable-groundwater-management/california-groundwater-modeling.html http://muchik.com/prueba-de-bombeo/

- Niveles piezométricos

- Líneas de flujo

- Isopiezas

- Variación

almacenamiento

- Recursos subterráneos

http://www.aquiferindia.org/Groundwater_Modeling.aspx

Naranjo et al. (2019)

RÍO GANADOR

RÍO PERDEDOR

RÍO PERDEDOR Y

DESCONECTADO DEL

ACUÍFERO

Winter y otros (1998)

gidahatari.com

https://www.slideshare.net/cpkumar/surface-water-and-groundwater-interaction

https://hispagua.cedex.es/datos/hidrogeologia

Datos extracciones:

› Uso urbano, industrial y regadío

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±

0 7.5 15 22.5 303.75km

Leyenda

Ámbito PE

areaAcuifero

&3 Bombeos 1975-1997

!( Bombeos 1998-2007

rios y lagunas

Describe cualitativamente el funcionamiento del acuífero, los

procesos relevantes, las entradas y salidas al sistema, las

propiedades físicas más importantes y su distribución espacial.

Es una representación esquemática de la realidad que hacemos en

función de los datos disponibles y el criterio de experto

hidrogeológico.

https://www.elsevier.es/es-revista-norteamerica-revista-academica-del-cisan-unam-84-articulo-agua-subterranea-soberania-interdependiente-el-S1870355018300314

Es la representación matemática de los procesos físico-

químicos que ocurren en el acuífero.

http://groundwater.ucdavis.edu/Materials/Groundwater_

Modeling__Web-Links/

Laborioso

Laborioso

Laborioso

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/año

SALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS MAR hm3/año

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/añoSALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS POZOS hm3/añoSALIDAS MAR hm3/año SALIDAS ALMACENAMIENTO hm3/año

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/año

SALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS MAR hm3/año

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/añoSALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS POZOS hm3/añoSALIDAS MAR hm3/año SALIDAS ALMACENAMIENTO hm3/año

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/año

SALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS MAR hm3/año

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/añoSALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS POZOS hm3/añoSALIDAS MAR hm3/año SALIDAS ALMACENAMIENTO hm3/año

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/año

SALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS MAR hm3/año

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

SALIDAS ARROYOS hm^3/año SALIDAS RIOS hm3/año SALIDAS DRENES (marisma) hm3/añoSALIDAS POZOS hm3/año SALIDAS BORDE NORTE hm3/año SALIDAS POZOS hm3/añoSALIDAS MAR hm3/año SALIDAS ALMACENAMIENTO hm3/año

Mapas, diferencias

ABRIL 2006 OCTUBRE 2008

MARZO 2009 OCTUBRE 2012

Isopiezas(m)

Nivel freático(m)

±

±±

±

Evolución

temporal

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267673733_Groundwater-Flow_and_Land-Subsidence_Model_of_Antelope_Valley_California

Estudio del impacto de un nuevo pozo

Impacto de las solicitudes de nuevos pozos

Estudio del impacto aumento bombeos

20% de extracción

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 (Año)

Altura

pie

zom

étr

ica (

m)

bombeo + 20%

>2 m

bombeo

5

6

7

8

9

10

05 06 07 08 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (Año)

Altu

ra p

iezo

mé

tric

a (

m)

bombeo + 20%

bombeo

Estudio del impacto del cambio climático

Distinta piezometría para

distintos escenarios climáticos

Guardiola-Albert & Jackson (2011)

Evaluación del estado según las predicciones futuras de

cambio climático http://www.hydoutuk.net/latest-outlook

Dirección de movimiento del agua

Balances totales del acuífero

Entradas/

Salidas

(hm3/año)

TOTAL ARROYOS RECARGA RÍOS FLUJO LATERAL MAR ALMACENAMIENTO BOMBEOS

2008 290.4 33.4 124.6 4.9 10.4 0.0 117.1 133.3

2009 440.7 35.0 274.8 5.0 10.4 0.0 115.5 132.2

2010 916.0 37.5 728.4 3.9 10.4 0.0 135.8 131.0

2011 392.8 35.8 192.5 4.3 10.4 0.0 149.9 131.1

2012 276.1 37.7 78.7 4.8 10.6 0.0 144.4 130.6

2013 346.5 36.3 154.9 4.8 10.4 0.0 140.1 129.2

2014 310.9 37.5 122.5 5.0 10.4 0.0 135.4 128.9

Balance anual de entradas (o salidas)

Flujos laterales

Celdas con salidas laterales a la Marisma

Celdas representado el Ayo. La Rocina

Celdas drenes en la margen derecha

Celdas drenes en la margen izquierda

Celdas con drenes al mar

Celdas con salidas laterales a la Marisma

Celdas representado el Ayo. La Rocina

Celdas drenes en la margen derecha

Celdas drenes en la margen izquierda

Celdas con drenes al mar

Salida por drenes al mar

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S DRENES MAR B

S DRENES MAR II-B

Salidas por el arroyo de la Rocina, aproximadas con drenes

0123456789

10111213141516171819202122

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S hacia Rocina B

S hacia Rocina II-B

Salida lateral por drenes a la Marisma

0123456789

1011121314

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S lat a Marisma B

S lat a Marisma II-B

Drenes ubicaciones en la margen derecha de la Rocina

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

DRENES Margen derecha SIN ROCINA B

DRENES Margen derecha SIN ROCINA II-B

Drenes cercanos al arroyo de la Rocina, ubicados en la margen izquierda

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

DRENES margen izq sin ROCINA B

DRENES margen izq sin ROCINA II-B

Salida por drenes al mar

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S DRENES MAR B

S DRENES MAR II-B

Salidas por el arroyo de la Rocina, aproximadas con drenes

0123456789

10111213141516171819202122

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S hacia Rocina B

S hacia Rocina II-B

Salida lateral por drenes a la Marisma

0123456789

1011121314

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

S lat a Marisma B

S lat a Marisma II-B

Drenes ubicaciones en la margen derecha de la Rocina

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

DRENES Margen derecha SIN ROCINA B

DRENES Margen derecha SIN ROCINA II-B

Drenes cercanos al arroyo de la Rocina, ubicados en la margen izquierda

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

año

hm

3/a

DRENES margen izq sin ROCINA B

DRENES margen izq sin ROCINA II-B

Estudio impacto cese bombeos

9 hm3/año menos de extracción

Estudio impacto del cambio climático

Salidas

(hm3/año) La

Rocina El

Partido Las

Marismas Guadiamar

Descarga histórica 33.8 11.3 39.4 8.4

Riego histórico 7.8 0.3 18.4 0.1

Abastecimiento histórico

0.2 0 0.4 0

Cambio simulado

2080s

Max -18.7 -8.3 -26.7 -1.8

Med -12.2 -1.7 -20.7 -0.6

Min -8.4 0.4 -16.9 0.4

VARIACIÓN DE RESERVAS

-1.15

-70.78

93.11

24.06

71.54

-118.16

-150.75

-63.41

-24.33

24.60

0.04

-94.25

-56.12

11.26

-43.22

123.60

-112.21

-133.83

-97.46-110.27

-93.56

324.98

151.49

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Año simulado

hm

3/a

ño

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/c

entral-valley/tulare-basin.html

El recurso natural disponible, según se define en el PH:

balance general de agua con

- infiltración lluvia

- recargas laterales otras masas

- recarga desde humedales conectados

- retornos de riego

- drenajes a ríos

- manantiales

- entradas/salidas mar

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

PHG 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rec

urs

o n

atu

ral d

isp

on

ible

hm

3/añ

o

Eolico

MAS Rocina

MAS Almonte

MAS Marismas Doñana

MAS Marismas

Tarea dinámica,

continua

No debe verse

como cuando

se resuelve un

problema

puntual.

Es un trabajo

complejo que

debe

mantenerse en

el tiempo si

queremos

preservar

nuestros

acuíferos y

ecosistemas

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Expertos en bases de datos

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Hay mucho en juego como para no invertir en ello