el impacto de camisa en la matriz energetica peruana
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EL IMPACTO DE CAMISEA
EN LA MATRIZ ERGETICA
CarlosHerrera Descalzi
UNMSM
Escuela Acadmica Pro fes ional de
Ing en iera Mecnica d e Flu id os
Lim a, 2607-2003
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ECUADOR COLOMBIA
BRASIL
BOLIVIA
CHILE
Lima
PERU
Acre
Lago
Titicaca
LEYENDA
GASODUCTO
POLIDUCTO
PLANTA
CRIOGENICA
FRACCIONAMIENTODE LIQUIDOS
Camisea
EXPORTACION DECONDENSADOS
EXPORTAC. DE GLP
LPG
Aguas arriba Campos de Gas de
Camisea
Planta de separacincriognica en Camisea
Fraccionamiento decondensados en la costa
Gasoducto: Camisea Puertas de Ciudad en Lima
Poliducto - Camisea- Costa
Red de Dsitribucin de Gasen Lima y Callao
TRANSPORTE YDISTRIBUCIN
Proyecto de CAMISEA|
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Las serpientes de los Andes
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Caractersticas del Proyecto El Yacimiento tiene un Valor Nominal de...
13 TPC
Gas Seco
12760x1012 BTU
Gas Seco
12760 US$Por 1.0
Por 4.0
Condensados
3480x1012 BTU
Condensados
13920 US$
Precio del Gas Natural Seco = 1.0 US$ / 106 BTU
Precio del Condensado = 18 US$ / Barril = 4.0 US$ / 106 BTU
78.5%
21.5%
26680 US$
48%
52%
1 Barril =4.5x106
BTU
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Actuales Regiones yReservas Gasferas
LIMA
CAMISEA
SELVA
CENTRAL
SELVASUR
COSTANORTE
GAS-BCF LGN-MMB
PROBADAS 296 14,8
PROBABLES 789 39,4
POSIBLES 1.802 90,1
RESERVAS
GAS-BCF LGN-MMB
PROBADAS 290 14,3
PROBABLES 80 3,6
POSIBLES 58 4,6
RESERVAS
GAS-BCF LGN-MMB
PROBADAS 8.404 567
PROBABLES 7.373 340
POSIBLES 10.671 466
RESERVAS
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VISIN DE LARGO PLAZO DEL GASEN EL PER
Todas lasEtapas
CentroNeurlgico
Concentrador
TalaraAguayta
Camisea
Cuzco
Ayacucho
HuancayoOroya
Lima
Ica
Marcona
Moquegua
Ilo
Puno
Trujillo
Chimbote
Arequipa
Apurimac
Tacna
Piura
Chiclayo
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Impacto de Camisea Balanza Comercial
En 1990 el dficit fue de 3.7 Millones Barriles y 52.5 Millones US$.
El 2000 el dficit fue de 13.8 Millones Barriles y 713 Millones US$.
Impacto en las Tarifas Elctricas
Cada ao de retraso de Camisea origina un mayor pago de los usuarios elctricosde 100 Millones US$.
Ingresos del Estado Regalas (37.24%): aplicado a la produccin vendida en Camisea (gas natural y
lquidos).
Impuesto a la Renta (30%): Aplicado a las utilidades. Impuesto General a las Ventas (18%).
Desarrollo Industrial Participacin de la Industrial Nacional: Generacin de Nuevas industrias y nuevos
puestos de Trabajo.
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Impacto de CamiseaPrecio de los Energticos
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
US$/106BTU
34
1915 14
Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural
Gas 1.8
T&DAP 1.8
DBP 8.2
IGV 2.0
Lima Cliente ResidencialEnero 2001
0
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4
812
16
20
24
28
32
US
$/106BTU
30
1613
5
Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural
Gas 1.8
T&DAP 1.8
DBP 0.7
IGV 0.7
Lima Cliente Comercial / Industrial MenorEnero 2001
14
Diesel
Impacto de CamiseaPrecio de los Energticos
0
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4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
US$/106BTU 20
16
7
Gasolinas GLP G N C
Gas 1.8
T&DAP 1.6
DBP 0.1
Grifo 2.1
Lima Cliente Transporte
Enero 2001
14
Diesel
IGV 1.2
Impacto de CamiseaPrecio de los Energticos
0
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Camisea y el medio
ambientePonderacin y equilibrio
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project'sDamage to Rain Forest Assailed
Two Texas energy companies, both closely tied to the Bush White House, are liningup administration support for nearly $900 million in public financing for a Peruviannatural gas project that will cut through one of the world's most pristine tropical rainforests.
the Camisea project has encountered fierce opposition. Worldwide environmentalgroups and some members of Congress argue that the massive extraction andpipeline project will destroy the rain forest and the lifestyle of its indigenous people.
will test the political pull of the Texas companies, Hunt Oil Co. and Halliburton Co.,which have longstanding ties to the Bush-Cheney administration and theRepublican Party
Hunt brought in Halliburton's Kellogg Brown & Root unit to engineer a proposednext phase, a $1 billion plant from which Hunt hopes to export liquid natural gas to
the United States by 2006. The controversy surrounding the project highlights the conflict between Bush's
energy policy, which advocates mining fossil fuels globally, and U.S. environmentalsafeguards, which detractors say the administration plays down.
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02-11-20 Washington Post: GasProject's Damage to Rain Forest
Assailed Under federal regulations, projects receiving backing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and the Inter-American DevelopmentBank must pass rigorous reviews to ensure that they will not threatenrare natural habitats.
But officials reviewing the Camisea loan applications, who asked not tobe identified, say the project is proceeding despite warnings that it mayrun afoul of international environmental standards. Independent reviewscommissioned by project developers have also noted numerousproblems, including fuel spills, unauthorized pipeline route diversions,and destructive erosion and landslides.
This month, Peru's energy ministry fined the pipeline consortium $1million for clearing too much land, including parts of a protected naturepreserve, and building unauthorized access roads. The companieshave appealed.
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed "Even a carefully designed and well-managed project -- which this, so far, is not -- will cause
permanent harm," said Leahy, the lead Democrat on the committee that gives U.S. funds to theInter-American Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank. "If it goes ahead, far moreneeds to be done to mitigate the damage.
The resources of the Lower Urubamba River region, from its famed mahogany trees to exoticplants used in pesticides, have long attracted outsiders. In the late 1800s, rubber barons raided
the area and enslaved its tribal people. Yet Camisea today remains as it was then -- mostlyinaccessible, except by river. In the 1980s, Royal Dutch Shell prospected for oil in a 5-million-acre area of Peru's Ucayali
Basin, slicing through the rain forest to conduct seismic tests. Poachers invaded, illegallyharvesting trees and importing influenza, whooping cough and other maladies that killed fourout of every 10 people in some indigenous tribes.
Shell made a new effort in the 1990s, and tribal people objected, aided by environmental
groups such as the tiny California-based Amazon Watch and the larger OxFam International.Shell tried to placate the opposition, paying $1 million for the region's first biodiversity review,conducted by the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of BiodiversityProgram. Scientists noted the jungle's "nearly pristine condition" and its wealth of unique,"unidentified species."
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed The scientists persuaded Shell not to build roads into the region and to adopt strictpolicies against contact with indigenous people. But, in 1998, antitrust disputes with the government forced Shell to pull out of the project.
Indigenous leaders were elated. Today, they feel differently. "If we'd only known," said Lelis Rivera, director of the Center for Development of Amazon
Indigenous Peoples, or CEDIA, "we would, one thousand times over, have preferredShell.
In 2000, Peru awarded the Camisea extraction concession to a consortium led by Huntand Pluspetrol, and separately awarded the pipeline contract to another consortiumincluding Hunt, Pluspetrol and five other companies. The consortia pledged to adoptShell's social and environmental programs.
But the government set a 2004 deadline for project completion, and the companies saytime pressures have caused them to cut corners. "We have challenges, big challenges --environmental, social, also timing challenges," said Alejandro Segret, chief executive ofTransportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP), the pipeline consortium.
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed TGP hired Knight Piesold, a consulting firm, to monitor environmental compliance. The
firm's oversight reports criticized the consortium for failing to control erosion and forviolating a 50-foot width limit on the pipeline route. TGP officials last month said they hadhired 600 workers to control erosion that is leading to landslides. But the consulting firm'slatest report says problems continue; Knight Piesold is now calling for construction to stopuntil erosion problems are fixed.
Erosion has also affected the indigenous people, a report said.
The pipeline right-of-way slices by the hamlet of Shimaa, home to 600 people. There,erosion has muddied streams used by inhabitants for drinking and washing, said Rivera, thedirector of CEDIA.
Schoolchildren must trudge through the right-of-way, which turns into a mud pit when itrains.
Last summer, students blockaded a construction road to protest the lack of clean drinking
water. Supplies were delivered but remain inconsistent, Rivera said. Some environmental groups have called for an immediate construction halt. The World
Wildlife Fund, which ranks Camisea on its list of 200 places deserving conservation,contends that "the starting point of forest destruction" will be the cleared pipeline paths thatwill bring "increased deforestation and habitat loss, hunting for bushmeat and trade andcontamination of headwaters."
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed Another environmental coalition, including Friends of the Earth and Amazon Watch,commissioned an independent analysis, which found that the project would have"irreversible impacts on the biodiversity of this area and on the indigenous groups."
Last month, during a meeting at the Inter-American Development Bank, conservationgroups aired a list of complaints: workers intruding on isolated tribes; pipeline routechanges without notice or review; erosion muddying rivers; declining fish and game
populations; and at least seven worker deaths. Environmentalists have also cited the drowning of a 7-year-old Machiguenga girl who was
swept up in the wake of two speeding Pluspetrol supply boats on the Urubamba Rivernear Kirigueti.
"The project is past the point where it could ever have been brought into compliance withinternationally accepted environmental and indigenous-peoples standards, including
many of the IDB's own minimum standards," the groups said in a joint statement.
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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed Jon Sohn, international analyst for Friends of the Earth, said the connections are obvious to projectopponents. "Hunt and Halliburton were involved in their campaign fundraising, in their transition
policies and in Vice President Cheney's secret energy plan." Last month, Hunt Oil's chief executive, Ray L. Hunt, toured Camisea with Toledo, said Carlos
Garaycochea, Peru's vice minister of energy. The U.S. representative to the Inter-American Development Bank is Bush appointee Jose Forquet, a
Treasury official. Forquet mobilized Hispanic support for Bush's 2000 campaign and was a Bush
"Pioneer," an elite donor who raised at least $100,000. Forquet declined to comment. Until 2000, Cheney was Halliburton's chief executive. Ray Hunt was appointed to Halliburton's board
with Cheney's backing and still serves today. Hunt is also a longtime friend of and contributor to George W. Bush, who named him to the Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board. Hunt raised money for Bush's father in 1992 and was tapped by theyounger Bush in 2000 to chair the Republican National Committee's Victory Fund, to which he and hiswife gave $20,000.
The Hunts have donated at least another $460,000 to Republican state campaigns, and theircompany, its employees and the spouses of employees have given more than $1 million to GOPcauses since 1995, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Hunter Hunt, vice president of Hunt Oil and Ray Hunt's son, was Bush's "primary Policy Advisorresponsible for energy issues," according to Hunt Oil's Web site.
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02-11-20Washington Post:Gas Project'sDamage to Rain
Forest Assailed
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Gas natural y desarrollo
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Escenarios de valor desustitucin
Valor bajo como
sustituto de lahidroenerga
Valor alto como
sustituto del petrleo
Se podra presentar la disyuntivade exportar vs. usar en el pas?
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El sentido de CamiseaEnerga = capacidad de
cambio
Materia prima o poder decambio
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Reemplazo anual
00.E+0010.E+04
20.E+04
30.E+04
40.E+04
50.E+04
60.E+04
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067
2072
2077
2082
2087
2092
2097
Aos
TJSector Residencial Comercial Sector Publico
Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Pesquero
Sector Minero Metalrgico Sector Industrial
Sector Transporte Sector Elctrico
SectorExportacin
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Reemplazo anual acumuladoTJ
00.E+00
5.E+06
10.E+06
15.E+06
20.E+06
25.E+06
30.E+06
2
002
2
007
2
012
2
017
2
022
2
027
2
032
2
037
2
042
2
047
2
052
2
057
2
062
2
067
2
072
2
077
2
082
2
087
2
092
2
097
Aos
Sector Residencial Comercial Sector PublicoSector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector PesqueroSector Minero Metalurgico Sector IndustrialSector Transporte Sector ElctricoSector Exportacin
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Demanda de Gas Natural
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2,004
2,007
2,010
2,013
2,016
2,019
2,022
2,025
2,028
2,031
2,034
2,037
2,040
2,043
2,046
2,049
2,052
Aos
0
700
1,400
2,100
2,800
3,500
4,200
Reserva:TWh
Sector Elctrico Industrial Reservas Remanentes
Demanda : TWh
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Capacidad utilizada del gasoducto
-40.E+04
-30.E+04-20.E+04
-10.E+04
00.E+00
10.E+04
20.E+04
30.E+04
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067
2072
2077
2082
2087
2092
2097
Aos
TJ
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Reservas de gas naturalTJ
-20.E+06-15.E+06-10.E+06
-5.E+0600.E+005.E+06
10.E+0615.E+06
Aos
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067
2072
2077
2082
2087
2092
2097
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Factores de reemplazo
%
0%5%
10%15%
20%
25%
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067
2072
2077
2082
2087
2092
2097
Aos
FDR(%) anual (mercado interno)FDR(%) anual (mercado total)
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Hidrgeno
Hidrgeno
Hidrgeno
Hidrgeno
Carbn
Molcula de Metano
CH4
El gas natural
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Gas Natural: reservas por regin(TPC)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Total
En desarrollo
EE/ex-URSS
Industrializado
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Gas Natural: reservas por reginal 2002 (TPC)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Asia industrializado
Europa Occidental
Centro y Sudamrica
Norteamrica
Asia en desarrollo
frica
EE/exURSS
Oriente medio
Total mundial:5451 millonesde pies cbicos
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Gas Natural: reservas segnregin (%)
*Reservas remanentes aenero del 2002
** Reservas an nodescubiertas, hacia el 2025
5451 Trillonesde pies cbicos *
5196 Trillonesde pies cbicos **
Otros
Centro ysudamrica
Asia
Africa
Norteamrica
Oriente medio
Unin Sovitica35.9%
31.0%
36.2%
19.8%
4.9%
13.1%
7.2%
11.1%
4.6%9.4%
3.1% 6.0%
9.6%
7.9%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
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Gas Natural: importaciones netas deEstados Unidos (TPC)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Histrico Proyecciones
Canad
LNG
Mxico
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Gas Natural: consumo en 5pases europeos (TPC)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Histrico Proyecciones
AlemaniaHolanda
Italia
Francia
ReinoUnido
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Gas Natural: consumo en Centro ySudamrica (TPC)
0.71.2
2
3.1 3.24.5
7.1
11.1
14.6
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020
Histrico Proyecciones
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Gas Natural: participacin en el total deenerga (Asia y mundo)
0 10 20 30
Mundo
Resto de Asia
Corea del Sur
India
China
Australia
Japn 1980
1999
2020
Centro y Sudamrica: Gas natural e
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Centro y Sudamrica: Gas natural ehidroenerga (QUADs)
0
5
10
15
20
Renovables Gas natural
1999 2010 2020
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Gas Natural:gasoductosenSudamrica
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Estimacin del Precio del GNpara un Cliente Industrial
Sin IGVUS$/MBTU Participacin
Con IGVUS$/MBTU
Compra en bocade pozo 1.8 56% 2.12Transporte yDistribucin en AP 1.35 42% 1.59Tarifa de distribucinen BP 0.07 2% 0.08Total 3.22 100% 3.80
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Usuario Gran Industria
2
4.1 4.4
11.4 10.7
15.3
0
4
8
12
16
20
Cabn
Gasnatural
P.Ind6
DieselN2
GLP
Electricidad
US$106BTU
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Costos para GenerarElectricidad
14.518
39.6
54.661.2
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
CC GasNatural
CVCarbn
TG GasNatural
MDResidual
6
MDDiesel 2
TGDiesel2
Tecnologa - Combustible
US$106
BTU
23.5
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Sector TransportesPrecios del GNCPRECIO AL PUBLICO
US$/MBTU US$/m ParticipacinPG 1.80 0.06357 27%
Total T&D 1.76 0.06226 26%Estacin 3.18 0.11221 47%
Total 6.74 0.23804 100%IGV 1.21 0.04285 18%
Al Pblico 7.95 0.28089 118%
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Sector TransportesFuentes Disponibles
7.9
12.7
16.318.4
0
4
8
12
16
20
GNC*
Diesel N2
GLP
Gasolinas
US$106B
TU
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Transporte delGas
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Gaseoductos y GNL
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Economa de escala del ducto
Si se incrementa el dimetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual subeen 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilmetros recorridosincrementa en menos de 70%.
Dimetro Capacidadanual
Costo ($/mcm)/1000 km
900 mm
1540 mm
10x109
m3
25x109 m3 0.35
0.43
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Economa de escala del ducto
Si se incrementa el dimetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual subeen 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilmetros recorridosincrementa en menos de 70%.
Dimetro Capacidadanual
Costo ($/103cuft)/103 km
36 pulg
60 pulg
420x109 m
875x109 m 0.0099
0.0122
E t t d l id d di l d GNL
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Estatus de la capacidad mundial de GNL:Existente, Planeado y Potencial hacia 1996
CapacidadExistente
Expansin10
6M
illonesd
ePC
NuevosProyectos enconstruccin
En Negociacinn/ Capacidad
Propuesta
CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL
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CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.200.00
Procesamiento del gas
Licuefaccin
US$/MillnBTU
Operacin ymaintenimientode lasinstalaciones
Almacenamientoy exportacin
Projectcost toliquefactionand export
Transportemartimo
Terminal deimportacin
Costos indicativos de cada etapa de una cadena de suministro de GNL (LNG).Base: 4.5 millones ton/ao de exportacin e importacin, con 3200 km de distancia (ida), por 20aos
Nota: Se excluye el costo fijo del gas
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GeopolticaChile en los ltimos 100 aos de
enclaustramiento al que nos ha sometido no
ha dado ninguna sea de considerar laposibilidad de una salida al mar. Cunta
humillacin tenemos que sufrir para entender
que a Chile no le interesa el desarrolloeconmico o acceso boliviano al Pacifico?
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Inversin e impacto en costos
3.5 - 6.04 - 8Total0.5 - 1.00.4 - 1Terminal Receptor y
Regasificador
0.8 - 1.61 - 2Transporte de GNL1.7 - 2.42 - 3Planta de Licuefaccin0.5 - 1.01 - 2Produccin de gas
Participacinen el costo
del GNLentregado
(US
$/MMBtu)
Inversin(en US$
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