01 productos frescos, rasgos de consumo y potenciales nichos de mercado en rusia
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Russia: fresh produce, consump3on traits, market poten3al Expoalimentaria 2013, Lima, Peru
+ Russia: economic outline
n GDP reached 1 899 bn USD in 2012
n Economy slowed down to 1,2% yoy growth
n Infla3on targets are set at the level of 5.5-‐6%
n Russia has 15 ci3es inhabi3ng 1 mln people and more
n Western Russia concentrates 80% of country popula3on (~114 mln)
n City popula3on vs. rural 73/27%
n Market is limited and growth rates are lower than expecta3ons
147,7
142,2 141,7 142,2
144
9
13,3
8,8
6,1
7
5,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
137
142
147
152
157
Popula3on CPI
+ Fresh fruit import to Russia, thousand tons
2011 to 2012: -‐1% decline, E2013 6 140 th/t +4% Peruvian imports: 0.4% of total fresh fruit import (in tons)
4 733
5 174 4 943
5 436
5 971 5 897
2 465 2 259
2 589 2 872 2 885
3 127
15 809
25 450 24 384
16 754
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H2013
full year fruit import 1H fruit import Peru import
+ Fresh fruit import to Russia
n Recession started in 2008 influenced the market with 1 year lag and led to 5% import drop in terms of volume a]er 3 years of constant growth. Currently the pa^ern of market behavior is similar
n 2013 started with slight op3mism among importers, we expect full recovery of the import volume, but not value
n Per capita consump3on ~56 kg/year, 75% (42 kg) – imports, 26% – domes3c produce. Far behind Europe (90 kg) and USA (115 kg)
n Organic growth – should be not more than 3-‐5% yoy (+3 kg p/a)
n 2015: 6 500 -‐ 6 600 thousand tones of imported fresh fruit
n Russia is one of the most import-‐dependent countries in the fresh fruit sector
n Peru has occupied its niche, but there’s s3ll space to grow
General trends and 3-‐5 year forecast
+ Fresh fruit per capita consump3on by origin: share of imported fruits is stable at 70-‐75% of total consump3on
46,8
51,2 52,7 53,5
55,8 56,1 56,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E2013
import consump3on local consump3on
+
Data per variety distribu3on
Fresh fruit import to Russia, thousand tons
1 316 1 271 1 491
1 672 1 569
1 077 1 102 1 173
1 157 1 232
392 310 401
425 404 1 032 964
1 064 1 317 1 268
410 367
407
421 380 946 931
899
978 1 044
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
citrus apples pears bananas grapes other
+ Consumer preferences
n Are not changing significantly over last 5 years
n Recession increased the share of conven3onal fruit – citrus, bananas, apples
n Only apples and pears may be par3ally replaced by domes3cally grown varie3es
n Exo3c fruits refer to higher culture of consump3on and trade, but interest is increasing
n Consumer are not ready for “ready to eat” condi3on of the fruit. Shelf life is more important
n SH produce has its “window” when local fruit is unavailable
citrus, 27%
apples, 22%
pears, 7%
banana, 20%
grapes, 7%
other, 17%
+ Retail trends
+ Retailers in Russia
n Have doubled the amount of modern stores within last 5 years. Extensive growth with the discounter format
n Modern retail takes up to 32% of all food retail formats in Russia. By 2020 this share should increase up to 60-‐65%
n Modern retail turnover in 2012 reached $74 bn. This is ~23% of food retail turnover
n Growth poten3al is located in regions, concentra3on of retailers would con3nue to increase. Less organic growth, more M&A’s
n Yoy revenue growth rate — 99%; 5 years growth forecast: 16% p.a.
n Lack of affordable and quality real estate for development in big ci3es
n Launching own import programs, contrac3ng volume of the fruit and veg, no suitable infrastructure for smooth import opera3ons
n Dictate prices to importers on the basis of “shelf price”
+ Structure of Peruvian import to Russia
n Peruvian table grapes have kicked out US grapes
n Citrus competes with Argen3na, Africa and Uruguay
n Pomegranates face strong compe33on from Egypt
n Key advantages: stable quality and rela3vely low costs
n Threats: increased expecta3ons from Russian market
n Aim: organic growth of all export structure
4,8%
65,6%
3,9%
7,1%
3,2%
15,4%
avocado grapes other
pomegranates mango citrus
+ Table grapes import to Russia
n Total import volume in 2012 — 380 thousand tons
n Good seasonality of Peruvian goods: November-‐February
n Poten3al to take up to 8% of Russian market
n Promo3onal ac3vi3es might be required to a^ract more customers
n Marginality would decrease – cost management requirements
Turkey, 38,6%
Uzbekistan, 12,4% Chile, 8,4%
Italy, 7,7%
Peru, 4,5%
Moldova, 3,0%
China, 3,0%
Argen3na, 2,9%
others, 19,5%
+ Marke3ng
Inves3ng in customer educa3on
+ Marke3ng
+ Marke3ng
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