שער החליפין הריאלי וסחר החוץ של ישראל · 2016-11-21 · 86-37 ,2006...
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79 62
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3. 1.000 -0.102 0.134 -0.272 -1.236 -0.737 -0.160 0.994 0.92 -6.069* 2.26(0.07) (0.23) (0.08) (0.18) (0.09) (0.02)
4. 1.000 -0.123 -0.241 -1.251 -0.707 -0.164 0.995 0.92 -6.059* 2.26(0.06) (0.05) (0.18) (0.07) (0.01)
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79 66
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67
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1. 1.000 0.329 -1.537 -0.121 -3.303 0.994 0.78 -5.373* 2.07(0.06) (0.06) (0.03) (0.29)
2. 1.000 -1.827 -0.213 -3.167 0.992 0.84 -5.760* 2.09(0.02) (0.02) (0.32)
3. 1.000 0.282 -1.523 -0.711 -3.491 -0.170 0.994 0.84 -5.678* 2.10(0.06) (0.06) (0.14) (0.28) (0.05)
4. 1.000 0.227 -0.217 -2.340 0.991 0.78 -5.474* 2.11(0.07) (0.03) (0.11)
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79 68
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69
5 , 1
) :1973/I 2004/IV , t(
LOG LOG LOG LOG
-0.007(-3.31)
-12
" " -0.402 -0.366 -0.165 -0.139(-6.73) (-5.23) (-3.06) (-2.59)
LOG 0.236 1.188(1.80) (13.86)
LOG -0.225(-2.29)
LOG -0.385(-5.34)
LOG 67 0.591(4.78)
LOG 1.582(3.18)
LOG -1 0.333(2.42)
LOG -0.132(-4.44)
LOG 0.064(3.39)
LOG 0.115(3.82)
LOG 1.271(6.00)2.770(8.55)
LOG 0.083(2.62)
LOG - LOG -0.176(-2.43)
LOG -3 -0.561(-2.65)
LOG -4 -0.04(-3.08)
( /100 -4 0.024(2.40)
-1 0.349(5.31)
-1 * 70-85 -0.189(-2.71)
-1 * 85-88 -0.318(-4.12)
-1 -1 -0.099(-3.94)
-1 -1 * 85-88 0.148(3.10)
-1 3.853(3.05)
2 0.66 0.44 0.78 0.50
125 125 125 1252.19 2.02 2.20 1.92
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79 70
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71
6 1
1974/IV-1985/II
3sls 2sls ols 2sls 2sls 2sls-0.007 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009(-3.31) (-2.64) (-2.66) (-3.20) (-4.24)
-1 -0.139 -0.149 -0.137 -0.441 -0.147 -0.126(-2.59) (-2.62) (-2.65) (-3.60) (-2.08) (-2.10)
LOG - LOG -0.176 -0.166 -0.133 -0.193 -0.175(-2.43) (-2.16) (-3.25) (-2.75) (-1.85)
LOG -3 -0.561 -0.540 -0.515 -0.558(-2.65) (-2.42) (-2.33) (-1.85)
LOG -4 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.190 -0.033 -0.042(-3.08) (-2.86) (-3.13) (-2.47) (-2.45) (-3.52)
( /100 -4 0.024 0.022 0.023(2.40) (2.05) (2.13)
-13,4 0.349 0.370 0.366 0.134 0.383 0.196
(5.31) (5.27) (5.23) (4.22) (6.21) (2.44)
-1 70-853,4
-0.189 -0.216 -0.207(-2.71) (-2.90) (-2.80)
-1 85-883,4
-0.318 -0.336 -0.326 -0.347 -0.254(-4.12) (-4.07) (-4.00) (-4.96) (-3.63)
-1 -1 -0.099 -0.097 -0.095 -0.067 -0.125 -0.140(-3.94) (-3.56) (-3.51) (-2.03) (-2.14) (-2.62)
-1 -1 85-883,4
0.148 0.154 0.150 0.173 0.215(3.10) (3.00) (2.97) (2.61) (3.42)
0.216(3.67)
-4 -0.1582-0.081
(-3.99) (-2.06)
-15 3.853 3.044 3.220 12.295
(3.05) (2.22) (2.48) (2.87)(1) 0.506
(2.43)(2) 0.302
(1.69)2 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.55 0.54 0.59
125 125 126 43 77 771.92 1.85 1.85 2.05 1.94 2.06
1985/III-2004/IV1973/I-2004/IV
1( , :res_xed res_imed LOG(i/y),
LOG(pop). ,, (yind/yb) (up-1), LOG(tot), LOG(wt), LOG(wt-1), LOG(y-1). 2( : DE-4-DEA-5.
3( DE . .
4( DEA DEt-1 DEt-4. 5( VAR_E DE , -DE.
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79 72
,- . ,
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73
7 1
1985/III-2004/IV 1973/III-1985/II
3sls 2sls ols 2sls 2sls
-1 -0.366 -0.360 -0.339 -0.352 -0.315(-5.23) (-5.00) (-4.84) (-3.62) (-2.84)
LOG -0.225 -0.215 -0.171 -0.408 -0.168(-2.29) (-2.12) (-2.30) (-3.00) (-1.20)
LOG 0.083 0.065 0.081 0.037 0.109(2.62) (1.93) (2.58) (0.75) (2.13)
LOG 1.271 1.303 1.074 1.077 1.035(6.00) (5.95) (6.71) (4.89) (2.54)
2.770 2.786 2.908 2.863 2.627(8.55) (8.32) (9.82) (5.12) (5.46)
2 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.44
125 125 125 77 48
2.02 2.02 1.98 1.97 1.83
1973/III-2004/IV
1( ,:
res_px_py-1, (de-dea-1), (de-dea-1)*dum_70_85, (de-dea-1)*dum_85_88, (de-1-dea-2), (de-1-dea-2)*dum_85_88, (var_e-1), (rs-4)/100, (LOG(i/y)), (LOG(i/y-1)), res_xed-1,
(LOG(wt)), (LOG(wt-1)), (LOG(tourists)), (LOG(aind67)), (LOG(pop)), (LOG(gd)), (LOG(up).((.
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79 74
8 1
1985/III-2004/IV 1973/III-1985/II
3sls 2sls ols 2sls 2sls
-1 -0.402 -0.411 -0.407 -0.338 -0.531(-6.73) (-6.54) (-6.53) (-5.04) (-4.08)
LOG 0.236 0.249 0.239 0.052 0.493(1.80) (1.82) (2.64) (0.31) (2.73)
LOG( _67 0.591 0.588 0.564 0.629 0.369(4.78) (4.48) (4.30) (3.54) (1.89)
LOG -1 0.333 0.319 0.309 0.449 -0.111(2.42) (2.14) (2.06) (2.46) (-0.43)
LOG 0.064 0.063 0.065 0.064 0.068(3.39) (3.15) (3.27) (3.32) (1.26)
LOG 1.582 1.779 1.765 1.048 1.728(3.18) (3.31) (3.29) (1.64) (1.87)
LOG -0.132 -0.135 -0.136 0.315 -0.161(-4.44) (-4.25) (-4.25) (1.98) (-3.44)
LOG 0.115 0.098 0.100 0.079 0.098(3.82) (3.01) (3.07) (1.74) (2.24)
2 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.56 0.78
125 125 126 77 48
2.19 2.18 2.16 2.22 2.24
1973/III-2004/IV
1( ,:
(LOG(px/py)-1), (LOG(wt)), (LOG(tot)), (LOG(up)), (de-dea-1), (de-1-dea-2), var_e-1 , (rs)/100, (LOG(i/y)) res_px_py-1, (LOG(y-1).
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75
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79 76
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77
9 1
1985/III-2004/IV 1973/III-1985/II
3sls 2sls ols 2sls 2sls
-1 -0.366 -0.360 -0.339 -0.352 -0.315(-5.23) (-5.00) (-4.84) (-3.62) (-2.84)
LOG -0.225 -0.215 -0.171 -0.408 -0.168(-2.29) (-2.12) (-2.30) (-3.00) (-1.20)
LOG 0.083 0.065 0.081 0.037 0.109(2.62) (1.93) (2.58) (0.75) (2.13)
LOG 1.271 1.303 1.074 1.077 1.035(6.00) (5.95) (6.71) (4.89) (2.54)
2.770 2.786 2.908 2.863 2.627(8.55) (8.32) (9.82) (5.12) (5.46)
2 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.44
125 125 125 77 48
2.02 2.02 1.98 1.97 1.83
1973/III-2004/IV
1( ,:
(LOG(pop)), (LOG(gd)), (LOG(up)), (LOG(up)), res_pm_py-1, (de-dea-1), (LOG(olim-1)), var_e-1 ,(LOG(aind67)), (LOG(wt-1)), (LOG(wt)), (LOG(tot))
(rs), (de-1-dea-2).
, 3 ,
- , , . , , ; , .
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79 78
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79
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79 80
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81
'-4 " ,1961 2004
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79 82
2 DGW
'-1 PX/PN
. ,
* , - .
. - ,
Xmax
X
X0
PX/PN = AN/AT
N N0
U*(X,N) = F{U(m,n)} C •
Nmax •
•
NN0
PXPN
C• S
*
0PXPN
D
Nmax
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83
'-2
PX/PN
.
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PX/PN = AN/AT
U*(X,N) = F{U(m,n)}
N
X0
X
S
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PXPN
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79 84
'-3 ) (X
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85
, ' ' )2001(. , - , ')( :
, ') 1998.( :1997-1980 98.05 , , .
, ' ' )1994(. " : " ,.
Balassa, B. (1964). �The Purchasing Power Parity doctrine: A
reappraisal�, Journal of Political Economy 72. Bergvall, A. (2004). �What determines the real exchange rates? The
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